Latest news with #InCred
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Gold's next big move? InCred Equities forecasts $5,000 target on central banks' buying spree
Central banks, the major force behind the unprecedented rally in gold prices in recent years, are likely to continue their buying streak in the coming months and years. Analysts believe this could support the yellow metal in staying at elevated levels, with prices currently hovering around $3,335 per troy ounce in the international market. Central banks worldwide are increasingly viewing gold as an alternative reserve to the US dollar, especially as the dollar is being used more frequently as a geopolitical tool, most notably through sanctions, asset freezes, and trade restrictions, which has accelerated the search for alternatives, and gold has emerged as a suitable option. The world's dependence on the US dollar has been a cornerstone of the global financial system for nearly eight decades. However, domestic brokerage firm InCred Equities said that 'cracks in the foundation are widening and the process of de-dollarisation is no longer speculative.' According to the brokerage, countries like China, Russia, and Iran have clear strategic reasons to reduce their dollar exposure. Even allies now quietly acknowledge the need to hedge against future US policy shifts. 'As global trade flows become more diversified, the reliance on a single currency is increasingly seen as inefficient and risky. Cross-border trade in yuan, dirhams, roubles, and rupees is growing—not yet at scale, but fast enough to signal a change,' InCred added. The brokerage also noted that 'central banks are buying gold at record levels' and pointed to bilateral agreements such as 'India-UAE, China-Brazil, and Russia-Iran' experimenting with local currency settlements. 'Nevertheless, the US dollar remains the king in FX markets and global reserves. But empires don't fall in a day. The British pound lost its crown slowly, over decades. The same path could await the dollar,' the note said. 'The erosion is gradual—until it's not. Whether it takes 10 years or 30, the direction is clear. The US fiscal position is deteriorating, and its politics are increasingly unstable. As confidence wanes, the world is ready with its plan B—i.e., islands of currency swaps and gold,' the brokerage underscored. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tonnes of gold in each of the last three years, a significant increase from the 400–500-tonne average over the preceding decade. This surge in demand has contributed to a sharp rise in prices, with spot gold climbing from $1,828 to $2,624 over the past three calendar years. So far this year, it has even touched $3,500. Notably, gold gained $1,000 in just eight months, signaling sustained demand not only from central banks but also from other market participants. In addition, the recent survey conducted by the WGC showed that central banks are expecting a further expansion in gold reserves amid geopolitical and economic instability. Over 95% of reserve managers anticipate that central banks will continue to boost their gold holdings in the next 12 months, according to WCG. This is 17% higher than the findings of 2024. The survey also found that 43% of central banks are planning to increase their gold holdings within the next year. Interestingly, none of the WGC respondents anticipate a decline in their gold reserves. In recent years, several pivotal events have positioned gold as the preferred reserve asset for central banks. According to InCred, the first was the freezing of Russia's USD assets by the EU and the US, which exposed the vulnerability of fiat currency reserves. Secondly, the brokerage pointed to the decline of the yuan as a viable alternative reserve currency, owing to China's increasingly unpredictable policy environment. Most importantly, it cited US President-elect Donald Trump's warning that any move away from the dollar would be viewed as an attack on the currency. Trump cautioned that countries pursuing de-dollarization could face a 100% import tariff from the US. Meanwhile, traditional demand for gold remains strong, adding further fuel to its rally. 'Don't be surprised if gold touches US$5,000 per ounce in the near future,' the brokerage said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
HDB Financial shares may rally up to 10%, say brokerages unfazed by weak Q1. Why are they bullish?
Shares of HDB Financial Services could climb as much as 10% from current levels, according to analysts at Emkay Global and InCred Equities, who maintained a bullish stance on the non-bank lender despite a seasonally weak first quarter marked by modest loan growth and rising credit costs. Emkay Global reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 900, citing expectations of improved margins from the September quarter onward. 'One weak quarter does not change our investment thesis,' the brokerage said, calling HDB a long-term 'play on enterprising Bharat.' The target implies over 10% upside from the current market price of Rs 815.90. InCred Equities, while not assigning a target price, said HDB is 'finding the balance between AUM growth, NIM and credit cost', noting positive signals from margin expansion and better asset mix. The brokerage highlighted that 95% of HDB's borrowings are linked to the External Benchmark Lending Rate (EBLR), allowing faster benefit transmission from interest rate cuts. Shares of HDB Financial Services were trading 3% lower on Wednesday at Rs 815.90 on the BSE. Margin resilience, product mix shift underpin outlook Live Events Despite a 2% sequential rise in AUM to Rs 1.1 trillion and a 14% drop in disbursements, brokerages noted that HDB's shift toward higher-yielding segments such as used vehicles and consumer finance helped shore up profitability metrics. The company reported a 10bps expansion in net interest margin (NIM) during the quarter, aided by a 30bps improvement in yield, driven by product mix recalibration. Emkay said that margins are likely to improve further from Q2FY26 due to the rising share of fixed-rate loans, over 75% of the book, and the positive impact of rate cuts on the cost of funds. InCred said that 'the management has indicated more room for margin expansion' and pointed to operational strength despite top-line pressure. Credit costs elevated, but expected to normalise Both brokerages flagged asset quality pressures and elevated provisions as near-term concerns. Gross Stage 3 loans rose to 2.56% of total advances in Q1FY26, while credit costs stood at 2.5%, largely due to stress in the CV and unsecured business loan segments. Provisions jumped to Rs 670 crore, compared to Rs 412 crore a year earlier. Still, analysts said the risks are manageable. Emkay noted that the company is actively recalibrating the CV/USL book to contain credit costs, and the management expressed confidence in normalisation from Q2FY26. InCred echoed this view, and said that 'credit cost is likely to stabilize through Q2 and improve thereafter.' The provision coverage ratio (PCR) on Stage 3 assets stood at 56.7%, while Stage 2 loans rose 41% quarter-on-quarter, with a lower PCR of 20.4%. However, InCred said management remained 'comfortable at a lower PCR for stage 2 loans.' Fundamentals strong despite softer profit HDB Financial reported net profit of Rs 568 crore, down 2% year-on-year, while net interest income rose 18% YoY to Rs 2,092 crore, and pre-provision operating profit grew 17% to Rs 1,402 crore. Total loans grew 14% YoY to Rs 1.09 lakh crore, and AUM rose 15% despite seasonal softness in disbursements. Operational metrics remain healthy, brokerages said, and the company's rural footprint, strong underwriting framework, and in-house collection strength, including 12,500 employees across tele-calling and field teams, provide a cushion against near-term volatility. The improving macro environment and rural recovery are expected to support growth and profitability, Emkay concluded, reaffirming its confidence in HDB's medium-term prospects. Also read | HDB Financial Q1 Results: PAT falls 2% to Rs 568 crore; NII rises 18% on healthy loan growth ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
10-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
TCS Q1 Results Live Updates: Net profit likely to rise 1–3% YoY to Rs 12,416 crore
10 Jul 2025 | 09:01:16 AM IST TCS Q1 Results Live: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), a leading name in the Indian IT sector, is set to release its Q1FY26 earnings on Thursday, July 10. According to estimates from four brokerages, the company's net profit is anticipated to grow by 1% to 3% year-on-year, with projections placing the figure between ₹12,040 crore and ₹12,416 crore. TCS Q1 Results Live: For the April–June quarter of FY26, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is expected to report revenue growth of 2.7% to 3.8%, with projections ranging between Rs 62,613 crore and Rs 64,993 crore. These estimates come from Kotak Institutional Equities, Nuvama Institutional Equities, InCred Equities, and Axis the four, Nuvama has issued the most cautious forecast for profit after tax (PAT), while InCred is the most optimistic. On the revenue front, InCred has projected the highest topline figure, whereas Axis Securities has provided the lowest estimate. Show more
Time of India
10-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
TCS shares in focus ahead of Q1 results; Trump tariff impact, BSNL ramp-down in spotlight
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services ( TCS ) will be in focus on Thursday as India's largest IT services company is set to announce its Q1FY26 results today, July 10. The company is expected to post a modest year-on-year (YoY) growth in profit between 1% and 3%, with estimates ranging from Rs 12,040 crore to Rs 12,416 crore, according to forecasts by four brokerage houses. Revenue for the quarter ended June 2025 is projected to rise between 2.7% and 3.8% YoY, placing topline expectations in the range of Rs 62,613 crore to Rs 64,993 crore. Also Read: These 10 debt-free penny stocks rallied 75-355% in 1 year. Do you own any? Among the brokerages, Nuvama has the most conservative profit forecast, while InCred is the most bullish. On the revenue front, InCred expects the highest topline, whereas Axis has projected the lowest. For TCS—currently valued at a market capitalisation of Rs 12.32 lakh crore—analysts anticipate continued pressure from developed markets and a ramp-down in BSNL-related revenues. Margins are expected to decline on a YoY basis but show sequential improvement. Domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities expects TCS to report a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 12,351 crore in Q1FY26, marking a 2.6% year-on-year (YoY) increase and a 1% rise sequentially. Net sales are pegged at Rs 64,993 crore, reflecting a growth of 3.8% YoY and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). "We forecast a 0.4% decline in constant currency (c/c) revenue, entirely led by a decline in BSNL revenues . We estimate BSNL-related revenue at US$157 million, down US$57 million or 75 bps QoQ. Revenue growth in developed markets is forecast at 0.3%," Kotak said in a note. According to Nuvama's Q1FY26 earnings preview, PAT is projected at Rs 12,040 crore, indicating a 1.5% YoY growth, but a slight 0.1% decline on a sequential basis. Revenues for the quarter are estimated at Rs 62,613 crore, reflecting a 3.2% YoY increase and a modest 0.2% QoQ rise. EBIT is forecast at Rs 15,442 crore, up 2% YoY and 1% QoQ. The EBIT margin is expected to settle at 24.7%, a contraction of 30 basis points YoY, but an improvement of 20 basis points sequentially. Nuvama expects TCS to report a 1% QoQ constant currency (CC) revenue decline and a 1.1% dollar revenue decline, primarily due to the ramp-down in the BSNL project and modest growth in developed markets, with continued weakness in retail and manufacturing. However, BFSI is expected to remain a growth driver. Meanwhile, InCred estimates PAT at Rs 12,416 crore for Q1FY26, a 3.1% YoY increase and a 1.6% QoQ rise. Revenues are projected at Rs 64,959 crore, up 3.7% YoY and 0.7% sequentially. Also Read: Is the chemical sector entering a new supercycle? Top stocks already up 35–135% in 2025 TCS Q4 earnings Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India's top software exporter, reported a 1.7% year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 12,224 crore for the quarter ended March 2025, compared to Rs 12,434 crore in the same period last year. This was below Street estimates of Rs 12,650 crore. Revenue from operations, meanwhile, rose 5.3% year-on-year to Rs 64,479 crore, up from Rs 61,237 crore in the same period last year. However, it came in below the ET NOW poll estimate of Rs 64,856 crore. In Q4, the company reported an operating margin of 24.2% and a net margin of 19.0%. Its delivered strong cash conversion, with operating cash flow at 125.1% of net income. TCS also posted a record total contract value (TCV) of $12.2 billion for the quarter, with a healthy book-to-bill ratio of 1.6. For the full year, TCV stood at $39.4 billion. TCS stock performance On Wednesday, TCS shares closed 0.65% lower at Rs 3,384 on the BSE, while the benchmark Sensex slipped 0.21%. The stock has gained 4% in the last three months but is down 18% year-to-date. Over the past three years, TCS has risen just 4%. The company's current market capitalisation stands at Rs 12.24 lakh crore. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Economic Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
TCS Q1 Results Preview: IT major may clock modest 3% profit growth; Trump tariffs impact in focus
Indian IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will announce its Q1FY26 earnings on Thursday, July 10. The company is expected to report a year-on-year (YoY) net profit growth of 1% to 3%, according to estimates from four brokerages. The bottom line is projected to be in the range of Rs 12,040 crore to Rs 12,416 crore. ADVERTISEMENT Revenue for the April–June quarter of FY26 is expected to grow between 2.7% and 3.8%, i.e., in the range of Rs 62,613 crore to Rs 64,993 crore. The estimates have been provided by Kotak Institutional Equities, Nuvama Institutional Equities, InCred Equities, and Axis Securities. Nuvama has given the most conservative estimate for profit after tax (PAT), while InCred remains the most bullish among its peers. In terms of revenue, InCred has projected the highest topline, whereas Axis has given the the largest domestic IT company by market capitalisation (Rs 12.32 lakh crore), revenues from developed markets are expected to face pressure, alongside a ramp-down in BSNL-related are likely to decline on a year-on-year basis but improve sequentially. ADVERTISEMENT Among the key monitorables to track are tariff uncertainty, underperformance in developed markets, the outlook on wage hikes, and new deal wins including the BSNL account. Kotak expects TCS to report a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 12,351 crore in Q1FY26, marking a 2.6% year-on-year (YoY) increase and a 1% rise sequentially. Net sales are pegged at Rs 64,993 crore, reflecting a growth of 3.8% YoY and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). ADVERTISEMENT Operating performance is also expected to remain healthy, with EBITDA estimated at Rs 17,257 crore, up 3.6% YoY and 1.6% QoQ. The EBITDA margin for the quarter is projected at 26.6%, down 6 basis points YoY but improving by 21 basis points sequentially, indicating stable operational efficiency."We forecast a 0.4% decline in constant currency (c/c) revenue, entirely led by a decline in BSNL revenues. We estimate BSNL-related revenue at US$157 million, down US$57 million or 75 bps QoQ. Revenue growth in developed markets is forecast at 0.3%," Kotak said in a note. ADVERTISEMENT The brokerage expects EBIT margins to decline on a YoY basis, despite the deferral of wage hikes usually implemented in April. The margin pressure stems from a lack of operating leverage. Even with currency tailwinds, EBIT margins are likely to remain flat wins are expected to remain steady at US$8–9 billion, flat on a YoY basis. ADVERTISEMENT - Reasons behind growth struggles in international markets despite robust deal wins—client ramp-downs likely being a factor.- The impact of tariff uncertainty on demand across verticals, particularly manufacturing and retail.- Updates on the financial services and healthcare verticals.- Any share loss to insourcing by large clients. According to Nuvama's Q1FY26 earnings preview, PAT is projected at Rs 12,040 crore, indicating a 1.5% YoY growth, but a slight 0.1% decline on a sequential basis. Revenues for the quarter are estimated at Rs 62,613 crore, reflecting a 3.2% YoY increase and a modest 0.2% QoQ rise. EBIT is forecast at Rs 15,442 crore, up 2% YoY and 1% QoQ. The EBIT margin is expected to settle at 24.7%, a contraction of 30 basis points YoY, but an improvement of 20 basis points expects TCS to report a 1% QoQ constant currency (CC) revenue decline and a 1.1% dollar revenue decline, primarily due to the ramp-down in the BSNL project and modest growth in developed markets, with continued weakness in retail and manufacturing. However, BFSI is expected to remain a growth driver.'We will watch out for the outlook on the US macro environment amid tariff uncertainty and commentary on margin recovery,' the brokerage said. InCred estimates PAT at Rs 12,416 crore for Q1FY26, a 3.1% YoY increase and a 1.6% QoQ rise. Revenues are projected at Rs 64,959 crore, up 3.7% YoY and 0.7% sequentially. EBIT is expected to be Rs 15,850 crore, representing a 2.6% YoY and 1.6% QoQ growth. EBIT margin is forecast at 24.4%, down 26 basis points YoY, but up 20 basis points highlighted that revenue in constant currency terms may decline due to the BSNL impact, while developed markets are expected to show modest sequential growth.'Revenue softness and business reinvestments, including strengthening of the partnership ecosystem, as well as INR appreciation on a QoQ basis, are key margin headwinds,' the note monitorables include deal pipeline conversion, outlook across the financial services, retail and manufacturing verticals, and updates on large deal ramp-ups. Axis Securities projects Q1FY26 PAT at Rs 12,107 crore, registering a modest 0.7% YoY increase. Revenue is estimated at Rs 62,613 crore, implying a 2.7% YoY rise. EBIT is forecast at Rs 15,444 crore, up 3.3% YoY. EBIT margin is expected to improve by 13 basis points YoY to 24.7%.'We expect topline growth to remain flattish QoQ due to the decline in revenues from the BSNL deal,' the brokerage are likely to see a sequential improvement of 60 basis points, aided by the absence of wage hikes and cross-currency tailwinds. Key elements to watch include the deal pipeline, vertical-level commentary, wage hike outlook, and updates on new BSNL-related deal wins. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
