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Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Ind-Ra cuts India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% on weak outlook
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday trimmed India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.3 per cent, citing uncertainties around US tariffs and weak investment climate. Ind-Ra expects GDP in FY26 to grow 6.3 per cent y-o-y, 30bp lower than its earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent made in December 2024. The economy is facing both headwinds and tailwinds, it said in its mid-year economic outlook. "Major headwinds are: i) uncertain global scenario from the unilateral tariff hikes by the US for all countries and ii) weaker-than-expected investment climate. The major tailwinds are: i) monetary easing, ii) faster-than-expected inflation decline, and iii) likely above-normal rainfall in 2025", said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Ind-Ra. The Indian economy had grown at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025) Ind-Ra's projections for FY26 are lower than the 6.5 per cent GDP growth projected by the RBI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The domestic rating agency expects average retail inflation at 3 per cent and exchange rate at 86.9 to a dollar in the current fiscal. Low inflation, monetary easing and so far favourable monsoons have brightened the scope for a continued economic recovery in FY26, and they are likely to minimise the impact of strong headwinds emanating from the uncertain global scenario. "While low inflation augurs well for consumption demand, monetary easing is likely to ease pressure on loan repayments, and better monsoon is likely to translate into brighter agriculture prospects, thus supporting rural demand. However, the combined impact of tailwinds is unlikely to fully alleviate the adverse impact of the strong headwinds", said Paras Jasrai, Economist & Associate Director, Ind-Ra. Ind-Ra said major growth drivers were expected to be monetary easing and capex. The pace of monetary easing in 2025 has been faster than our expectations. However, the tariff hikes by the US have increased the global economic uncertainty, leading to slower growth for both global demand and trade. "This has led to investors adopting a wait and watch mode before taking decisions on greenfield expansion," Ind-Ra said.
News18
2 hours ago
- Business
- News18
Ind-Ra trims Indias FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.3 pc
New Delhi, Jul 23 (PTI) India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday trimmed India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.3 per cent, citing uncertainties around US tariffs and weak investment climate. Ind-Ra expects GDP in FY26 to grow 6.3 per cent y-o-y, 30bp lower than its earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent made in December 2024. The economy is facing both headwinds and tailwinds, it said in its mid-year economic outlook. 'Major headwinds are: i) uncertain global scenario from the unilateral tariff hikes by the US for all countries and ii) weaker-than-expected investment climate. The major tailwinds are: i) monetary easing, ii) faster-than-expected inflation decline, and iii) likely above-normal rainfall in 2025", said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Ind-Ra. The Indian economy had grown at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025) Ind-Ra's projections for FY26 are lower than the 6.5 per cent GDP growth projected by the RBI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The domestic rating agency expects average retail inflation at 3 per cent and exchange rate at 86.9 to a dollar in the current fiscal. Low inflation, monetary easing and so far favourable monsoons have brightened the scope for a continued economic recovery in FY26, and they are likely to minimise the impact of strong headwinds emanating from the uncertain global scenario. 'While low inflation augurs well for consumption demand, monetary easing is likely to ease pressure on loan repayments, and better monsoon is likely to translate into brighter agriculture prospects, thus supporting rural demand. However, the combined impact of tailwinds is unlikely to fully alleviate the adverse impact of the strong headwinds", said Paras Jasrai, Economist & Associate Director, Ind-Ra. Ind-Ra said major growth drivers were expected to be monetary easing and capex. The pace of monetary easing in 2025 has been faster than our expectations. However, the tariff hikes by the US have increased the global economic uncertainty, leading to slower growth for both global demand and trade. 'This has led to investors adopting a wait and watch mode before taking decisions on greenfield expansion," Ind-Ra said. PTI JD DR DR view comments First Published: July 23, 2025, 13:15 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
June core output at 3-month high on steady govt capex
Synopsis India's core sector shows growth. Output reached a three-month high in June at 1.7%. Government spending on infrastructure supported this growth. Steel and cement production increased. Refinery products also saw gains. However, coal, natural gas, electricity, crude oil, and fertilizers declined. Experts predict further improvement in July. Industrial activity may be impacted. ANI Representative Image New Delhi: India's core sector output grew to a three-month high of 1.7% in June, driven by sustained government capital expenditure that supported infrastructure-related sectors, even as five of the eight core industries recorded contraction, official data released Monday showed. The growth was 1.2% in May and 5% in June 2024."Steady government capex, along with the reasonable growth in steel, cement and refinery products pulled up the infrastructure output to a three-month high," said Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).The steel output surged to a seven-month high of 9.3% in June, while cement production increased by 9.2%, due to a favourable base effect. "The growth in volumes of these segments has been quite healthy in Q1FY26, which implies that the construction sector is poised to record a robust GVA (gross value added) growth in the quarter," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA. Official GVA figures for the June quarter will be released in August. Output of refinery products grew to a five-month high of 3.4% strong performance of these three sectors helped prevent a contraction in core sector output, offsetting decline in other five industries - coal (6.8%), natural gas and electricity (2.8% each), and crude oil and fertilizers (1.2% each)."While an elevated base weighed upon coal output, excess rains in the latter half of June impacted electricity generation," explained added that the swift progression of the southwest monsoon across the country along with a high base effect were some of the average, core sector output averaged 1.3%, lower than 6.2% in the corresponding period last ahead, Ind-Ra projects core sector output to improve further to around 2% year-on-year in the eight core industries account for 40.27% weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), economists expect the tepid growth in core sector output to impact industrial activity as output grew by 1.2% year-on-year in May from 2.6% in April, according to official data released last month. Estimates for June will be released on July anticipates IIP growth to remain around 1.5% in July, while ICRA expects 1.5-2.5%.
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
June core output at 3-month high on steady govt capex
New Delhi: India's core sector output grew to a three-month high of 1.7% in June, driven by sustained government capital expenditure that supported infrastructure-related sectors, even as five of the eight core industries recorded contraction, official data released Monday showed. The growth was 1.2% in May and 5% in June 2024. "Steady government capex, along with the reasonable growth in steel, cement and refinery products pulled up the infrastructure output to a three-month high," said Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Data Analytics Technology Design Thinking healthcare PGDM Cybersecurity Data Science Management Operations Management Degree Others Public Policy Product Management Artificial Intelligence Project Management Data Science Finance others Leadership MCA CXO MBA Digital Marketing Healthcare Skills you'll gain: Data Analysis & Visualization Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning Business Intelligence & Data-Driven Decision Making Analytics Strategy & Implementation Duration: 12 Weeks Indian School of Business Applied Business Analytics Starts on Jun 13, 2024 Get Details The steel output surged to a seven-month high of 9.3% in June, while cement production increased by 9.2%, due to a favourable base effect. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Millions Impacted By Undisclosed Commissions And Misleading Car Finance Agreements My Car Loan Claims Learn More Undo "The growth in volumes of these segments has been quite healthy in Q1FY26, which implies that the construction sector is poised to record a robust GVA (gross value added) growth in the quarter," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA . Live Events Official GVA figures for the June quarter will be released in August. Output of refinery products grew to a five-month high of 3.4% year-on-year. The strong performance of these three sectors helped prevent a contraction in core sector output, offsetting decline in other five industries - coal (6.8%), natural gas and electricity (2.8% each), and crude oil and fertilizers (1.2% each). "While an elevated base weighed upon coal output, excess rains in the latter half of June impacted electricity generation," explained Nayar. Jasrai added that the swift progression of the southwest monsoon across the country along with a high base effect were some of the reasons. On average, core sector output averaged 1.3%, lower than 6.2% in the corresponding period last year. Looking ahead, Ind-Ra projects core sector output to improve further to around 2% year-on-year in July. Since the eight core industries account for 40.27% weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), economists expect the tepid growth in core sector output to impact industrial activity as well. Industrial output grew by 1.2% year-on-year in May from 2.6% in April, according to official data released last month. Estimates for June will be released on July 28. Ind-Ra anticipates IIP growth to remain around 1.5% in July, while ICRA expects 1.5-2.5%.
Economic Times
14-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
WPI inflation falls to a 20-month low of -0.1% in June
ANI Representational image India's wholesale inflation fell to a 20-month low of -0.1% year-on-year in June from 0.4% in May due to decline in food and fuel prices and a moderation in manufactured goods costs, official data released Monday showed. Economists anticipate Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to remain in negative territory in July, given the ongoing year-on-year deflation in food and crude oil prices. 'Negative rate of inflation in June 2025 is primarily due to decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, manufacture of basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas etc,' said the commerce ministry in a a quarterly basis, average wholesale inflation dropped to a five-quarter low of 0.4% in Q1FY26. 'With the WPI inflation averaging at just 0.4% in Q1FY26 vis-à-vis 2.4% in Q4FY25, we expect the nominal GDP growth to decelerate quite sharply between these quarters,' said Rahul Agrawal, senior economist at ICRA. Official gross domestic product (GDP) data for the June quarter will be released in Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), said, 'The muted input price growth in the economy would provide support to the corporates in maintaining their margins at a time when industrial output growth has faced deceleration on account of weather vagaries.'Ind-Ra expects wholesale inflation to stay below 0.5% in Q2FY26, amid muted inflation in food and core inflation, which accounts for around one-fourth of the WPI weight, fell to a two-year low of -0.3% in June from 1.7% in contributors to food deflation included onion (-33.5%), potato (-32.7%), vegetables (-22.7%), and pulses (-14.1%). Fruit prices eased to 1.6% year-on-year in June compared to 10.2% in May.'The drop in prices of pulses was due to a robust kharif output,' said in manufactured products, which account for 64.23% weight in the WPI, eased slightly to 1.97% in June from 2.04% in May. Within this category, vegetable & animal oils and fats recorded the highest inflation at 23.1%, followed by food products (7%), and tobacco products (2.8%).Inflation in primary articles and fuel & power contracted by 3.4% and 2.7%, respectively.'The fuel & power and crude petroleum and natural gas prices declined during June due to benign global commodity prices,' said Jasrai.
