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Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
India's David vs Goliath profit story: Can smaller firms hold on to their share?
India's markets are dominated by large firms, with the top 10% by revenue generally commanding more than 90% of net profits. This started changing after the covid-19 pandemic, as smaller firms clawed their way up amid a wider business rebound. But this fightback is now running out of steam. In 2024-25, companies outside the top 10% bucket accounted for 7.3% of the aggregate net profit earned by the universe of BSE-listed firms, a Mint analysis of 5,096 companies showed. There was no improvement during the previous two years. Does this mean the repeat of the pre-pandemic pattern: David vs Goliath showdowns among Indian businesses? It's still early days to say so: These smaller firms—the long tail comprising 90% of listed companies—are still better off on this metric than they were before the pandemic-led disruptions. For context, their average share was 4.0% just before the pandemic, compared to 8.3% now. While larger companies enjoy the benefits of economies of scale and a competitive edge, mid-sized and smaller ones have managed to leave a deeper mark in recent years. 'India Inc. is still concentrated, but not more concentrated than five years ago," said Jayakrishnan Pillai, a partner at consulting firm Deloitte India. 'The peak in profit skewness during 2021 has since reversed." He also noted that smaller firms had shown stronger profit growth in recent years, thus broadening the earnings base. However, the struggles of smaller companies do not end here. Many sectors are still dominated by one or two companies, and the rising appetite for mergers and acquisitions (M&As) puts smaller companies at risk. Segment shifts The smaller companies are still taking a bigger slice of the profit pie than five years ago, but the huge sector-wise variation suggests that the trend is not broad-based. Of the 20 sectors as per Mint's classification, 11 actually recorded a smaller share in the profit pool in FY23-FY25 compared to FY17-FY19. Among the sectors in which space shrank for smaller companies were agriculture, financial sectors, construction and real estate, infrastructure and engineering, and logistics. A sharp increase in smaller firms' share in textiles, travel, and hospitality, and retail pulled up the overall share. This may have been driven by the sharp pent-up demand that India witnessed when the effects of the pandemic-induced lockdowns faded. Textiles and travel and hospitality are already less dominated by bigger companies (top 10% account for 41% and 56% of profits, respectively), leaving room for smaller companies to capitalize on the post-pandemic boom. Titans' take Despite the recent churn, the Indian listed companies' universe sees concentration in many segments and, in some cases, a heavy dominance of one or two players. For example, smaller companies have gained share in the travel and hospitality sector, but the sector is still ruled by Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp. Ltd (IRCTC), which takes home 60% of the sector's aggregate profit pie. In the packaged consumer goods segment, ITC Ltd alone commands about 50% of the share. Eight out of 20 sectors have one company alone accounting for more than 33% of the aggregate profit share of their respective sectors. Three of these are dominated by public sector undertakings—IRCTC, Container Corp. of India Ltd, and NTPC Ltd. If the bucket is expanded to include companies commanding 25-33% share, four more sectors—brokerages, consumer durables, construction and real estate, and oil and gas—will make the list. Further consolidation? As smaller companies are constantly fighting for survival, a rising appetite for M&As puts them at risk of being taken over by bigger companies. During the pandemic, several smaller companies faced losses, filed for bankruptcy, and were taken over by bigger players in the segment, analysts said. However, the recent uptick in M&A activity goes beyond distress buying of insolvent companies—it has more to do with strategic shifts to drive growth, especially since Indian corporations are sitting on a huge pile of cash. Mint reported on 6 July that 285 BSE-listed companies alone were holding ₹5.09 trillion in cash in 2024-25. 'There is hesitation to invest in new greenfield large projects due to the prevailing uncertainties and geopolitical scenario," said Jyoti Prakash Gadia, managing director of Resurgent India, a category I merchant bank. 'However, there is appetite for M&A as the consolidation process involves lesser risk and can help beat competition, create synergies, and improve efficiency and profitability."
Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Nifty 50 wipes out last 1-year gains: More downside ahead or a rebound to record highs?
The Indian stock market is under significant selling pressure, with the benchmark Nifty 50 down nearly 1 per cent over the past year on concerns over an elusive India-US trade deal, unimpressive earnings, and sustained foreign capital outflow. While the index is still up about 4 per cent year-to-date, on a monthly scale, it has lost over 3 per cent in July so far, looking set to snap its four-month winning streak. On July 26, the Nifty 50 hit an intraday low of 24,598.60, extending losses to the fourth consecutive session. Meanwhile, the index hit its 52-week low of 21,743.65 on April 7 this year after hitting a record high of 26,277.35 on September 27 last year. After hitting a record high in September, the Nifty plunged due to heavy foreign capital outflow, stretched domestic market valuations, and weak India Inc. earnings. On a monthly scale, the Nifty fell for five consecutive months, from October 2024 to February 2025. The oversold market rebounded in March on valuation comfort, hopes of earnings revival, and healthy macroeconomic indicators. The domestic market remained resilient despite geopolitical conflicts, India-Pakistan tensions, and a trade war led by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. But now, investors' risk appetite has turned weak amid a lack of fresh triggers, persisting concerns over Trump's tariffs, and weak earnings. "Currently, the market lacks strong triggers from two key perspectives. First, corporate earnings are largely in line with expectations and are therefore not sparking any significant momentum. Second, uncertainty surrounding an India–US trade deal persists, which is weighing on investor sentiment," said Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities. The domestic market appears to be oversold, so a rebound in the near term is possible. However, sustainable gains are only possible if there is visible earnings growth. The head of research at ICICI Securities is optimistic that the worst may be over and the domestic market will see a healthy rebound in the second half of the year. "We continue to maintain our year-end target for the Nifty at 27,000. If there is no further rate cut, we expect earnings from the banking sector—one of the market's key drivers—to begin improving from Q3 onwards. This will boost the market," said Pandey. The IT sector is likely to remain subdued, while the consumption sector may see some recovery, supported by the festive season and the delayed benefits of income tax exemptions. "Overall, second-half earnings are expected to be stronger. By then, the impact of US tariffs may also start to be felt, potentially triggering relative positivity for emerging markets like India," said Pandey. One of the key reasons behind the Indian stock market's recent downtrend is sustained selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Experts pointed out that the US market has been resilient despite anticipations of tariff headwinds. This has kept FPIs in a selling mode in India. "In the US, the market is not showing any significant weakness. Contrary to earlier expectations, economic data remains strong. One possible reason is that pre-selling and inventory stocking may have occurred earlier in the cycle, and that inventory is still being consumed. As a result, the anticipated effects of higher inflation and slowing growth have not yet materialised," said Pandey. However, Pandey added that it is unlikely that such steep tariffs will be fully absorbed by the system. "In the second half of the year, as the US Fed has also indicated, inflationary pressures in the US are likely to rise. In that situation, FPIs may come to emerging markets like India," said Pandey. Some experts see another angle behind the FPI selloff. Rohit Srivastava, the founder and market strategist at believes the primary reason behind FPI selling is not short-term but long-term. "It is the introduction of long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax on foreign investors. Since the implementation of LTCG, net FPI inflows into India have declined noticeably. They haven't been major buyers the way they were prior to the tax regime change," Srivastava said. Srivastava said this trend doesn't appear to be linked to any specific year or earnings cycle. "Even when earnings were growing two years ago, FPIs were net sellers throughout the year. This suggests that the reason is not short-term, but structural and long-term in nature. Globally, FPIs tend to invest less in countries that impose withholding taxes. So, even if India remains fundamentally attractive, many funds stay away due to tax-related concerns," said Srivastava. Nevertheless, Srivastava believes the domestic market is oversold and the Nifty 50 may hit the 27,000 mark by the end of the year. "I don't see the Nifty falling below 24,500. The market appears oversold, and a rebound could begin at any time. Our year-end target remains unchanged at 27,000," said Srivastava. "On the downside, 24,500 serves as a strong support level, while on the upside, we see resistance at 24,994," Srivastava said. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
India Today
21-07-2025
- Business
- India Today
Over 85% of employees plan to change jobs after salary hikes in 2025: Survey
A majority of Indian professionals received salary hikes this year, but for most, it wasn't enough to stay. According to the foundit Appraisal Trends Report 2025, while 74% of employees were handed appraisals during the FY24–25 cycle, 86% still plan to change jobs in the coming report, based on responses from 5,108 professionals across industries and functions, reveals that even sizeable increments—20% and above in some cases—have failed to stem growing hikes fell in the 5–10% range, with only a small fraction crossing the 20% mark. Advertising, education, and IT saw the highest share of professionals reporting no hike at all, while sectors like energy and BFSI offered relatively better payouts. 'This year's appraisal cycle reflects a growing disconnect between employer intent and employee expectations,' said Pranay Kale, Chief Revenue and Growth Officer at foundit. 'Professionals today are looking for more than just compensation—they want growth, visibility, and work-life alignment.'SECTOR-WISE DISPARITIESAdvertising and media led the 'no-hike' list, with 41% of employees reporting no increment. Education (33%), BPO/ITES (31%) and IT services (32%) followed close contrast, energy and BFSI stood out for their more generous increments. In the energy sector, 26% of professionals received hikes of over 20%—the highest among all industries. BFSI showed a balanced spread, with a healthy share of high and mid-range STAFF FARED BETTERThe appraisal cycle favoured execution roles over leadership positions. One in three professionals with 11 or more years of experience received no hike, while only 17% of those with 7–10 years of experience were denied an sales and marketing professionals saw stronger outcomes, with over 20% of respondents in both roles receiving hikes above 20%. IT, HR, and finance roles saw a more conservative cycle, with fewer than 15% reporting top-tier ALONE DON'T RETAIN TALENTJob-switch intent remained high across all hike bands. Even among employees who received 20% or higher increments, 86% said they still plan to leave. Across lower hike bands, the number ranged from 82% to 87%.Only 32% of all respondents felt their increment met expectations and just 36% found the overall appraisal process around hikes and promotions, along with flexibility and career growth, emerged as top priorities for those who chose to stay in their current survey makes one thing clear. In 2025, a salary hike is not a reason to stay. It is a trigger to re-evaluate. For India Inc., that is a warning bell too loud to ignore.- EndsMust Watch
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Business Standard
21-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Stock to Watch today, July 21: Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Dr. Reddy's
Stocks to watch today, July 21: The Indian stock market is poised for a flat start, continuing the range-bound movement as the August 1 trade tariff deadline nears. At 7:26 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were trading 9 points lower at 25,018, signalling a muted start. India Inc.'s earnings season for the first quarter of the financial year 2025-2026 (Q1FY26) failed to bring positive surprises for D-street, which eventually weighed down the overall market sentiment. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets signalled mixed trends. Japan's Nikkei was trading at 39,819.11 level, down by 82 points or 0.21 per cent. However, the Hang Seng continued its positive trajectory, quoting 24,927.91, up by 101 points or 0.41 per cent. South Korea's equity benchmark index, Kospi, followed suit, trading at 3,206 level, up by 0.59 per cent. However, global markets remained largely flat. The S&P 500 concluded the previous trading session at 6,296.79 level, down by 0.01 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 44,342.19, down by 142 points or 0.32 per cent. For the week ahead, investor sentiment will be guided by the latest updates on trade tariff developments. Market participants will also keep a close watch on the upcoming speech by the US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, D-street analysts believe that robust earnings by India Inc. will be necessary to justify India's premium valuations. Q1FY26 earnings today UltraTech Cement, Eternal, Havells India, Globe Civil Projects and IDBI Bank are some of the top companies set to announce their earnings for the quarter ending June 30, 2025. Besides, Oberoi Realty, UCO Bank, PNB Housing Finance, Mahindra Logistics and Dodla Dairy will also announce their Q1 results on June 21, 2025. Here is a list of stocks to watch today: Reliance: The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate witnessed a robust rise of 76.5 per cent in profit after tax (PAT) to ₹30,783 crore in Q1FY26 from ₹17,445 crore reported in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The company's revenue figure stood at ₹2,73,252 crore, marking a 6 per cent surge from ₹2,57,823 crore reported in Q1FY25. The retail segment's gross revenue increased 11 per cent to ₹84,171 crore in Q1FY26 from ₹75,615 crore recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year. The company saw strong growth momentum in almost all verticals except the exploration and production segment(E&P). ICICI Bank: The bank's PAT stood at ₹12,768 crore, marking a 15.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) surge in Q1FY26. ICICI Bank's NII increased by 10.6 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹ 21,635 crore during the quarter ending June 30, 2025, from ₹19,553 crore reported in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. Meanwhile, net interest margin stood at 4.34 per cent in Q1FY26 as against 4.36 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. HDFC Bank: The bank's consolidated net profit figure stood at ₹16,258 crore in Q1FY26, a marginal decline of 1.3 per cent from ₹16,475 crore recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year. That apart, core net interest margin also witnessed a slight decline to 3.35 per cent from 3.46 per cent reported in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, average CASA deposits stood at ₹8,604 billion, up 6.1 per cent Y-o-Y. JSW Steel: The company witnessed a minor surge in revenue from operations figure, which stood at ₹43,147 crore in Q1FY26 from ₹42,943 crore reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year. However, PAT surged to ₹2,209 crore during the quarter under review from ₹867 crore recorded in Q1FY25. The company reported capacity utilisation in India at 87 per cent for Q1FY26, impacted by planned maintenance shutdowns. Consolidated crude steel production stood at 7.26 million tonnes, registering a 14 per cent Y-o-Y growth. PCBL Chemical: The company informed the bourses in its latest exchange filing that the Central Tax and Central Excise, Cochin, has issued an order regarding the alleged incorrect claim of input service credit for the financial year 2011–12. As per the order, a proposed demand of ₹1,74,05,532 has been dropped. However, a demand of ₹1,55,15,539 has been confirmed, along with interest and penalty of ₹1,15,55,539. As per the company's evaluation of the order issued, there is no material impact on financial, operational or other activities of the company arising from the said order, the exchange filing read. Brigade Enterprises: The real estate developer has acquired a 20.19-acre land parcel in the Whitefield–Hoskote corridor of Bengaluru for ₹588.33 crore. According to the exchange filing, the acquisition was made via Ananthay Properties Pvt. Ltd., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Brigade Enterprises. Globe Civil Projects: The company informed the bourses in its latest exchange filing that it has secured an EPC order worth ₹172.99 crore from NBCC (India) Ltd. The project involves the development of infrastructure facilities and buildings for the Central University of Punjab. The project is scheduled to be completed within 21 months. Yes Bank: The bank's net profit for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, stood at ₹801 crore, up 59.4 per cent from ₹502 crore recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Net interest margin remained stable quarter-on-quarter at 2.5 per cent, rising 10 bps Y-o-Y. Non-interest income stood at ₹1,752 crore, marking a 46.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth. The CASA ratio improved by 200 bps Y-o-Y to 32.8 per cent, backed by a strong 10.8 per cent growth in CASA deposits. Dr. Reddy's: The pharma company informed the bourses in its latest exchange filing that the USFDA conducted a Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) and Pre-Approval Inspection at its FTO 11 formulations facility in Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh, from July 10 to July 18, 2025. A Form 483 with seven observations was issued, which the Company plans to address within the stipulated timeline. Union Bank of India: The banking firm reported a 12 per cent rise in its net profit figure to ₹4,116 crore for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, from ₹3,679 crore recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year. However, net interest margin (NIM) declined by 29 basis points (bps) to 2.76 per cent (on Y-o-Y basis) in Q1FY26. Meanwhile, net interest income also declined by 3.18 per cent to ₹9,113 crore during the quarter as against ₹9,412 crore recorded in Q1FY25. Central Bank of India: The bank's net profit figure for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, was up by 32.84 per cent to ₹1,169 crore, from ₹880 crore recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year. Net interest income during the same period stood at ₹3,383 crore. That apart, the banking firm's net interest margin for the quarter under review was recorded at 3.16 per cent. Waaree Energies: The company, in its latest exchange filing, stated that its wholly owned subsidiary, Waaree Solar Americas, has received an order for the supply of 500 MW solar modules from a renowned developer and owner-operator of utility-scale solar and energy storage projects in the US. The modules are scheduled to be supplied during the financial year 2026–27. Texmaco Rail & Engineering: The railway engineering and infrastructure company has received a purchase order from Ultratech Cement Limited valued at ₹47.77 crore for the supply of BOXNHL wagons along with a BVCM Brake Van. According to the exchange filing, the order is scheduled to be executed by mid-October 2025.
Time of India
18-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Mid and smallcaps to lead the next growth cycle: Yogesh Patil
"We believe that over the next two years, these investments will start reflecting in revenue and profitability. Corporates have also deleveraged, so India Inc. is in a stronger position. There is still headroom for growth through leverage. Rural consumption is also picking up, supported by better monsoons and softening prices. Overall, we think the worst is largely behind us. Over the next two quarters, as global uncertainties like tariffs and conflicts begin to settle, we expect improved and stable growth from India. While India may temporarily enter a low GDP growth phase with high liquidity, specific sectors—particularly market leaders and emerging ones—are driving the growth narrative," says Yogesh Patil , LIC Mutual Fund . How are you analyzing the domestic macro tailwinds we currently have, alongside the global headwinds and uncertainties? How do you think the market is balancing both? Yogesh Patil: India's domestic macros are definitely in a good place. We have a controlled fiscal deficit, manageable inflation, and a favorable current account deficit. The RBI and the government have done a phenomenal job. After three to four years of high growth, India might see slightly sluggish growth this year. From next year, we expect better growth. 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Manufacturing, in particular, could emerge as a big winner in this global reset of supply chains. Globally, of course, the situation remains uncertain and keeps evolving. But for India, while there may be short-term hiccups, the medium- to long-term story remains strong. We're seeing structural trends emerge—new sectors like defence, EMS, data centers, renewable energy, and railways are witnessing significant capex. Specialty chemicals too are in focus. We believe that over the next two years, these investments will start reflecting in revenue and profitability. Corporates have also deleveraged, so India Inc. is in a stronger position. There is still headroom for growth through leverage. Rural consumption is also picking up, supported by better monsoons and softening prices. Overall, we think the worst is largely behind us. Over the next two quarters, as global uncertainties like tariffs and conflicts begin to settle, we expect improved and stable growth from India. While India may temporarily enter a low GDP growth phase with high liquidity, specific sectors—particularly market leaders and emerging ones—are driving the growth narrative. Live Events Sectorally, what is your view on the banking space, especially the public sector banks? We've seen renewed interest recently and a large QIP from one of the leaders. How do you see PSU banks right now? Yogesh Patil: Broadly, BFSI looks promising, but we need to bifurcate between public and private banks. For consumer banking, we believe private banks are better positioned, though PSU banks are currently attractively valued. So, it depends on whether you're prioritizing valuations with limited growth or are willing to pay a premium for higher growth. That said, with the current credit growth, both private and PSU banks can grow from here. Valuations across the banking sector look reasonable. The RBI has provided ample liquidity, and we expect a pickup in credit growth in the second half, aided by liquidity and controlled inflation. The base is also resetting. In terms of your portfolio construct, where are you most overweight by market cap? Are you playing it safe with largecaps, or does the conviction in the broader market continue? Yogesh Patil: As a house, different funds have varying allocations across large, mid, and smallcaps. But our core focus is on quality and earnings growth. Currently, the strongest earnings growth is visible in emerging and new sectors, and many of their leaders are found only in the mid- and smallcap space. So, we are selectively overweight on small- and midcaps. We believe the structural trends in sectors like data centers, defence, exports, and power are irreversible. Most capital goods companies, too, are in the mid- and smallcap segments. So, if you follow earnings growth, your allocation naturally leans towards these segments. Of course, allocation varies from fund to fund, but overall, we are relatively higher on small- and midcaps due to the strong opportunity and earnings visibility. Given the churn underway across sectors, which sectors do you believe may underperform in this market upcycle? Yogesh Patil: It's tough to point out specific sectors, but based on our understanding, the ongoing tariff issues are creating challenges for major exporting countries like China. Commodities and commodity chemicals from countries with surplus capacity could flood other markets. So, we are currently avoiding sectors where competition is intense and capacity is excessive—especially where global trade boundaries are unclear. This includes not just commodity chemicals or metals, but potentially building materials, polymers, and pipes as well. The threat of higher imports and falling global prices due to oversupply is real—especially if the US imposes more tariffs on China. China, which exports around $1 trillion worth of goods, will need to reroute that supply. India could be a destination, which creates risk. It's hard to pinpoint exact companies or products since China exports such a wide variety. But one thing is clear: India is steadily growing in specialty chemicals, CDMO, defence exports, and domestic data centers. Apart from domestic data centers, where are you deploying your monthly fresh inflows? Yogesh Patil: We're spreading it across a few themes. The consumer sector, for instance, hasn't done well over the past two to three years, but we are starting to see green shoots in the rural economy, supported by rising real rural wages. So, we expect a pickup in consumer demand in the coming quarters and have slightly increased our allocation there. We are also gradually increasing our weight in BFSI—selectively in NBFCs and certain banks. After years of underperformance, we're seeing improving ground-level checks and overall sentiment. Plus, RBI has infused ample liquidity to support both consumption and the banking sector. So, BFSI and consumer are areas where we're incrementally deploying capital.
