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CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
These are America's 10 strongest state economies best prepared for a recession
With the U.S. economy solid but still facing elevated risk of recession — or, as President Trump described it in May, in a "transition period" — states are pitching themselves as the most stable place for companies to locate no matter what happens to the economy. "Multiple international headquarters, hundreds of billions of committed investments across a variety of industries and the economy to handle it all," the Indiana Economic Development Corporation promises. "Georgia job creation remains strong," that state's Department of Economic Development assures. "The State of Georgia is celebrating another year of sustained momentum for business recruitment and expansions." "Wisconsin is one of the most fiscally responsible states in the nation," the state's Economic Development Corporation says. A CNBC analysis of all 50 state economic development websites finds that the economy — and factors relating to it such as job growth, foreign direct investment and the housing market — are the most frequently mentioned selling point this year. Economy popped up 222 times in our tally, well ahead of the next most mentioned factor, infrastructure, at 203. Under the methodology for CNBC's annual business competitiveness study, America's Top States for Business, that makes Economy the heaviest weighted category in 2025. But measuring state economies is more challenging than usual this year. Sweeping federal budget cuts are threatening to throw sand in the gears of an economic engine in many states. And tariffs — so far, a wildly moving target — are already crimping the economies of states that depend on international commerce. "If you don't know what your product is going to cost, if you don't know if your export market is going to be there in six months, if you don't understand the terms that you're trading on, it makes it really hard to say, 'Okay, we're gonna take a risk and invest in this new product line'," said Dan Anthony, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington, D.C.-based economic data firm. To score each state's economy in this year's Top States for Business study, we considered traditional measures such as state gross domestic product growth, job growth, state fiscal health, the number of major corporations headquartered in each state, and the strength of the local housing market. But we also considered how dependent each state is on a shrinking federal government for spending and hiring. And we considered each state's exposure to a trade war, using data compiled for us by Trade Partnership Worldwide. "The big things that we start out looking at is just really exposure to international trade, and particularly the goods trades," Anthony said. In addition, the data looks specifically at states' exposure to China, which is at the heart of the trade war. Some states are particularly vulnerable should the economy take a turn for the worse. But these states have what it takes to navigate a recession. While The Palmetto State is among the states most vulnerable to increased tariffs — international goods trade made up one-third of its GDP last year — South Carolina enters this unsettled period with one of the fastest growing economies in the nation, and some of the best job growth. Notably, that job growth is not occurring in the manufacturing sector, including the auto industry, where tariff increases could hit hard. Instead, the state's biggest job growth is in construction, where employment rose more than 7% year-over-year in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal revenue made up about 33% of the state budget last year, roughly in line with the national average. 2025 Economy Score: 274 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B-) GDP (2024): $273.3 billion (+4.2%) Job Growth (2024): +2.4% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 33% International Goods Trade (2024): $91.4 billion (33.4% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: None The Peach State's diverse economy will come in handy should the national economy worsen. Seventeen companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are headquartered in Georgia, and while the home of the Port of Savannah is heavily dependent on international trade, there is plenty of other business to take up the slack in a slowdown. Georgia entered 2025 with solid economic growth, though job growth dropped off considerably. Hiring in most sectors, except for health care, has leveled off, or, in some cases, declined. 2025 Economy Score: 277 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B) GDP (2024): $701 billion (+3.4%) Job Growth (2024): +0.9% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 29% International Goods Trade (2024): $197.6 billion (28.2% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Home Depot, Delta Airlines, Coca-Cola The Beehive State's economy was buzzing last year — leading the nation in GDP growth, and near the top for job growth. Utah's tech sector is a major driver, but some of the biggest job gains occurred in construction as the state tries to get ahead of a severe housing shortage. For years, landlocked Utah has been pursuing the concept of an "inland port" to better link its dynamic economy to the rest of the world. The idea has morphed from a single, giant facility to 13 smaller ones around the state, but now, Utah's embrace of international trade could backfire on the state's economy. Utah's international goods trade makes up nearly 17% of state GDP. And Trade Partnership Worldwide estimates that retaliatory tariffs from other countries could increase Utah business costs by up to 30%. 2025 Economy Score: 279 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B) GDP (2024): $235.7 billion (+4.5%) Job Growth (2024): 1.7% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 29% International Goods Trade (2024): $40 billion (16.9% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Extra Space Storage The Gem State's economy continues to dazzle, with solid growth last year. The state's housing market, which has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in recent years, has stabilized nicely for now, and new home construction is taking off. Idaho is also relatively insulated from tariffs, with limited international trade and tiny exposure to China. But Idaho depends on the federal government for a comparatively large share of state spending. In February, Republican Gov. Brad Little warned of a potential "economic shock" from the Trump budget cuts, but said Idaho had the wherewithal to withstand it. 2025 Economy Score: 288 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B) GDP (2024): $99.6 billion (+3.9%) Job Growth (2024): 1.5% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 40% International Goods Trade (2024): $13.5 billion (13.6% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Micron Technology, Lamb Weston Holdings The Evergreen State is fertile ground for entrepreneurs. A new business starting up in Washington stands a better chance of survival than in any other state, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Simply Business, a national insurance marketplace. Researchers found that businesses in the state stand an 86.4% chance of surviving their first year, 89.3% in their second year, and 91.8% in their third year. The broader economy in Washington was in the top five for growth last year, though job growth has slowed since the beginning of this year. The state is relatively well insulated from federal budget cuts, but it would be on the front lines of a trade war with China. With China accounting for more than 16% of Washington's international goods trade, it is the fourth most exposed state. 2025 Economy Score: 296 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B+) GDP (2024): $702 billion (+3.7%) Job Growth (2024): 1.7% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 26% International Goods Trade (2024): $109.6 billion (15.6% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Amazon, Microsoft, Costco The size and scope of the Empire State's economy should help to insulate it somewhat from the impacts of tariffs and federal budget cuts. Only California is home to more major corporations than New York. But federal funding does account for a relatively large portion of the state budget. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said in April that Trump budget cuts could impact some $1.3 billion in federal funding to the state, and warned that tariffs could result in 280,000 lost jobs. Those impacts would be significant, but all is relative in a state with a general fund budget of more than $110 billion, and a workforce of nearly 10 million. Only about 53,000 of those employees — less than half of one percent — work for the federal government. 2025 Economy Score: 298 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B+) GDP (2024): $1.83 trillion (+2.4%) Job Growth (2024): 1.8% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA1 Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 40% International Goods Trade (2024): $251.6 billion (13.7% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: American Express, JPMorgan Chase, Pfizer While growth in The First State was moribund last year, Delaware's economic foundation is sound, and well-insulated from the upheaval coming from Washington. The state does have some exposure to international trade, but only a small portion of that — about 8% — is with China. The state is among the least dependent on the federal government, which accounts for just a quarter of state spending and about 0.8% of the workforce. Delaware has lost some of its allure as a place to incorporate, following court decisions seen as unfriendly to business — like the one last year voiding Tesla CEO Elon Musk's compensation package. But it was still the second most popular state in which to start a business last year, after Wyoming. 2025 Economy Score: 317 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A-) GDP (2024): $79.7 billion (+2.1%) Job Growth (2024): 0.9% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 25% International Goods Trade (2024): $15.6 billion (19.6% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: DuPont de Nemours, Incyte Year after year, The Tar Heel State turns in solid growth, and last year was no exception. It is a major reason that North Carolina is CNBC's Top State for Business overall in 2025. North Carolina's housing market, while suffering shortages exacerbated by last year's Hurricane Helene, nonetheless does reasonably well on affordability, according to data from the National Association of Homebuilders. The state is somewhat sheltered from federal budget cuts — federal employees make up just 1% of the workforce. But tariffs are a concern in a state that relies heavily on international trade. 2025 Economy Score: 322 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A-) GDP (2024): $661.9 billion (+3.7%) Job Growth (2024): 0.9% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 38% International Goods Trade (2024): $133.8 billion (20.2% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Bank of America, Duke Energy, Nucor They say everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes the economy — the second biggest state economy after California. That should be especially helpful in these tumultuous times. While The Lone Star State is heavily reliant on the federal government in its budget, federal employees make up less than 1% of the state's vast workforce. And while international goods trade is an important part of the Texas economy, only a small percentage of that trade, about 6%, is with China. The state enters these tumultuous times with solid finances, and a wealth of foreign direct investment. 2025 Economy Score: 348 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A+) GDP (2024): $2.17 trillion (+3.6) Job Growth (2024): 1.3% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 36% International Goods Trade (2024): $857.7 billion (39.5% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: ExxonMobil, Oracle, AT&T The Sunshine State tops CNBC's Economy rankings for a third consecutive year in 2025. Economic growth and job growth remain solidly in the top ten, state finances are strong, and the state is a leader in new business formations. Florida is a major player in international trade, but it comprises a relatively small percentage of the state's overall economy. And only a small percentage of that international trade is with China, leaving the state in a better position than many when it comes to tariffs. Florida depends on the federal government for about 34% of its budget — and roughly two-thirds of its $34 billion Medicaid budget. That has Floridians keeping a wary eye on Washington. 2025 Economy Score: 363 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A+) GDP (2024): $1.34 trillion (+3.6) Job Growth (2024): 1.4% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 34% International Goods Trade (2024): $185 billion (13.8% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: CSX, Carnival, Lennar
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Beckwith debates Hoosiers in chippy town hall
Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith answers questions during his May 27, 2025, town hall in Zionsville. (Niki Kelly/Indiana Capital Chronicle) Republican Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith went toe-to-toe with constituents at a Zionsville town hall Tuesday night — defending his stance on bringing religion into his public post and concerns about 'chemtrails.' About 100 Hoosiers attended the event, though some left as the event stretched to two hours. The night featured numerous interruptions from both Beckwith and those in the audience. Loud boos and noes were repeatedly lobbed. 'If you shoot little snide remarks at me, I might just shoot them right back,' Beckwith said during one exchange. After the event, Beckwith said he considered it a success. 'I'm not trying to win somebody over to my side of the argument. I'm just trying to say, hey, let's dialogue. And I'm going to tell you what I believe, why I believe it,' he told reporters. 'And, you know, I believe people are adults. They can make up their own minds after they hear what I say, and then you can let other people, you know, let their voices be heard as well.' One attendee, Scott Johnson, read several laws and constitutional provisions about religion in government, noting that the U.S. Constitution contains no references to the Bible or Christianity. 'I don't understand how you can swear an oath to the Constitution and then violate it,' he said. 'Your word should mean something, sir.' Another woman told Beckwith, who is a pastor, that Hoosiers are his constituents and not his congregants. His response was to point out God is mentioned in the Declaration of Independence four times. The crowd audibly groaned when Beckwith said the separation of church and state is a myth and that 'we are a Judeo-Christian nation.' One woman, who declined to provide her name, was concerned about the preservation of farmland in Boone County and other areas. 'I too believe in free enterprise, in the capital market, but I also believe that we have a responsibility to be good stewards of our land,' she said, specifically mentioning the Indiana Economic Development Corporation buying up land for the contentious LEAP district. Beckwith said he wants Gov. Mike Braun to clean house at the IEDC. 'I don't know if you can save the IEDC at this point because people don't trust it. People have seen the abuse that has gone on,' he said, adding that the LEAP project was 'slammed down the throats of the people of Boone County.' Another speaker pointed to Beckwith's recent peddling of a conspiracy theory that aircraft are nefariously spreading dangerous substances in the condensation trails — so-called 'chemtrails' — they leave in the sky. A second man said this is an issue that concerns him. 'You mentioned chemtrails and that's got my attention,' Alex Sutherland said. 'You look up at the sky today, it doesn't feel like May. It didn't at the Indy 500. I know they are spraying stuff out of those high-altitude jet planes.' Beckwith praised Florida and Tennessee for passing legislation targeting weather modification. And he noted a bill filed in Indiana to levy huge fines on anyone putting chemicals in the air to impact weather. 'I think it's worth looking into,' he said, adding, 'If we find out it's laughable then great.' During the exchange, Beckwith called the crowd 'leftist socialists.' One woman yelled back, 'We're Americans, not socialists.' Property taxes also earned discussion after a man gave examples of inconsistent assessed values in communities. 'We dropped the ball on this,' Beckwith said about the recently passed property tax reform package. He supports limiting property tax payments based on the purchase price of a home but acknowledged the problems can't be fixed overnight. 'It's going to take us longer than just a few months to untangle this mess,' Beckwith said. About 30 protesters gathered outside before the town hall began. Many were carrying signs. One said 'Lt. Gov. Beckwith. This is our state, not your church.' Another said he was '0/5 of a person' — referencing comments he made on the Three-Fifths Compromise. 'Micah Beckwith is harmful to children,' Amy Garman, of Indivisible Central Indiana, told the crowd. She said Republicans have banned books and outed transgender kids 'under the guise of parental rights.' SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
