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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
6 factors that will impact India Inc's earnings in the quarters ahead
The June 2-25 quarter (Q1-FY26) Nifty earnings are likely to be weak, with growth expected at only 5 per cent year-on-year (YoY). Excluding metals and oil marketing companies, earnings growth drops closer to 4 per cent. A significant drag comes from the private banking sector, which is expected to report its second consecutive quarter of declining earnings since March 2020. Meanwhile, the PSU banking sector is likely to report moderate earnings growth of 5 per cent, the lowest in 20 quarters. The auto sector is projected to see a year-on-year decline of 10 per cent. Pharma sector is expected to report 11 per cent year-on-year growth, marking a moderation after eight consecutive quarters of 15 per cent+ earnings growth. The chemical sector is expected to record 10 per cent year-on-year earnings growth, marking its second consecutive quarter of growth after seven quarters of decline. That said, there are six factors that will impact earnings growth in the quarters ahead. #1: Low inflation is dragging down revenue growth Low inflation is good for our economy and has resulted in an easy monetary policy as well as lower interest rates. Lower interest rates help higher valuations in the market. However, lower inflation also means lower nominal GDP growth. There is a strong linkage between nominal GDP growth and revenue growth. While real GDP growth in India will be robust in FY26, we see nominal GDP growth at 9 per cent being amongst the lowest over past 20 years given likely GDP deflator of under 3 per cent. Over the past 20 years, FY20 was the only year which saw a lower nominal GDP growth excluding Covid-impacted FY21. #2: Banks dragging down overall earnings The banking sector has a significant impact on overall earnings growth given that it accounts for over a third of the index. Over the past few years, a revival in bank earnings led by lower provisions and rising NIMs helped overall earnings growth. However, with interest rates falling NIMs are coming under pressure and bank earnings are lacklustre. This is dragging down overall earnings growth. Earnings growth #3: Margins peaking? Onus on revenue growth Analysts are forecasting FY26 EBITDA margins at 21.8 per cent, which will be the highest in a decade. While margins may not fall materially, we think margin increase from here will be difficult. Thus bulk of earnings growth will have to be accounted by increased revenue growth. #4: Trump tariffs can be a mixed bag We see a greater probability of Trump going ahead with his tariff plans from August 1st. This has the risk of raising inflation in the USA as tariffs seem to average well above the 10 per cent rate currently. Moreover, this could trigger a slow-down in the USA and impact growth across the world including India. So, while tariffs are overall negative in terms of a slowing global economy, the more specific impact on India depends on the contours of an Indo-US trade pact, if any. The key to watch is the tariffs on Indian goods relative to that on other countries it competes with. We think a tariff of around 15 per cent may relatively be good for India given that most competitors are currently at 20-30 per cent tariffs. #5: Consumption spend should improve Three factors will drive consumption spend over the next few months. First, the monsoons. Better monsoons have led to better sowing of crops. Some of this could be due to early sowing relative to last year since monsoons arrived ahead of the normal schedule. But with monsoons looking normal, we think agriculture growth will be strong this year leading to higher rural income. Second is urban consumption, which will be supported by the tax break of around Rs 1 lakh crores given in the budget in February 2025. Thirdly, lower interest rates and easy monetary conditions will lead to lower EMIs helping urban consumption. #6: Capex is better than consensus believes The consensus view is that the Government has done most of the heavy lifting on capex and private sector capex has been missing. The good news is that Government has continued to accelerate capex spend and has rightly front loaded its capex for the year. But the even better news is that the private sector capex has accelerated over the past 2 years. We still do not see anything like the animal spirits we saw in FY2004-07 phase. But even a more gradual recovery will help the economy and earnings. Listed corporate capex will practically double from FY22 to FY26. Listed corporate capex as per cent of Nominal GDP has moved up from 2.7 per cent in FY22 to 3.3 per cent in FY25.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Science
- Time of India
World's most expensive Indo-US joint sat mission NISAR to lift off on July 30
Preparations for NISAR mission NEW DELHI: The world's most expensive earth observation satellite, NISAR, which has been jointly developed by Nasa and Isro, will be launched after much delay from the Sriharikota spaceport at 5.40pm on July 30, the Indian space agency has said. Both India and the US have been working on the Nasa-Isro SAR Mission (NISAR) for over a decade and it has cost them over $1.5 billion. "Historic Launch Ahead... NISAR will scan the entire globe every 12 days, providing high-resolution, all-weather, day-and-night data. It can detect even subtle changes in Earth's surface like ground deformation, ice sheet shifts, and vegetation dynamics," Isro posted on X. Speaking to TOI on Tuesday, space minister Jitendra Singh said, "NISAR will open a new horizon in Indo-US collaboration. The satellite will take images of every piece of Earth. It will not only have scientific applications but also provide new earth science". The minister, who wanted to witness the crucial launch but may not be able to go to Sriharikota due to Parliament being in session, said that "crucial data generated from NISAR will, besides being beneficial for the US and India, help other countries in disaster management. Thus, it will live up to PM Modi's dream of Bharat playing the role of Vishwa Bandhu." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like No annual fees for life UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now Undo India's GSLV-F16 rocket will inject the satellite into a 743-km sun-synchronous orbit with an inclination of 98.4 degrees. NISAR will observe Earth with a swath of 242 km and high spatial resolution, using SweepSAR technology for the first time. The satellite, weighing 2,392 kg, will be the first one to observe the Earth with a dual frequency synthetic aperture radar, with one each provided by Isro (S-band) and Nasa (L-band). The NISAR mission is designed to observe and measure some of the planet's most complex natural processes, including ecosystem disturbances and natural hazards like quakes, tsunamis, volcanoes and landslides.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Science
- Time of India
NASA-ISRO $1.5 billion joint satellite NISAR set for launch on July 30: What is its mission and why is ISRO spending so much on it
The countdown has begun for the launch of NISAR, a groundbreaking Earth observation satellite jointly developed by NASA and ISRO. Slated for liftoff on July 30, 2025, at 5:40 PM IST from Sriharikota, the satellite represents a landmark in Indo-US space collaboration. Weighing 2,392 kg and carrying a price tag of $1.5 billion, NISAR is the most expensive Earth observation mission ever launched. Using a first-of-its-kind dual-frequency radar system, the satellite aims to deliver detailed, high-resolution imagery of the Earth's surface every 12 days. It is designed to support scientists, disaster response teams, and policymakers worldwide. What is the mission of the NISAR NISAR, which stands for NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, will orbit Earth in a sun-synchronous orbit, capturing global surface data consistently under identical lighting conditions. Its primary goals include: Monitoring ecosystem changes and measuring forest biomass Tracking earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic deformation Studying glacier retreat and polar ice movement Measuring soil moisture and detecting groundwater variations Generating 3D surface maps of land and ice with high precision The satellite's L-band radar from NASA and S-band radar from ISRO allow it to see through cloud cover, vegetation, and darkness, enabling round-the-clock, all-weather observations. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Resmed AirSense 11 with flat 20% off ResMed Buy Now Undo Why does NISAR cost $1.5 billion? NISAR's hefty cost stems from its technological sophistication. It carries a 12-meter deployable mesh antenna, one of the largest in Earth observation history. The satellite integrates two advanced radar systems, requiring complex hardware and software integration without mutual interference. It offers centimeter-level precision, capable of detecting subtle ground shifts and environmental changes. NASA provided the L-band radar, GPS, solid-state recorder, and antenna. ISRO developed the S-band radar, satellite bus, and launch systems, and will launch NISAR using the GSLV-F16 rocket. Why is ISRO investing over INR 788 crore? India's contribution of INR 788 crore is a strategic investment with far-reaching benefits. Disaster response: Rapid detection of earthquakes, floods, and landslides could help save lives and infrastructure. Agriculture and water management: Accurate data on soil moisture and crop health can inform drought mitigation and boost food security. Climate monitoring: Continuous tracking of forests, glaciers, and wetlands enhances climate resilience. Technological advancement: Developing and operating dual-band radar technology strengthens ISRO's future missions. Global data access: All NISAR data will be freely available worldwide, enhancing India's standing in global Earth science. The bigger picture: A symbol of international collaboration NISAR exemplifies the success of long-term technical cooperation between NASA and ISRO. It showcases a trusted partnership in cutting-edge space technology. It positions India as a global leader in Earth observation. It opens doors for future joint missions and high-tech space ventures. NISAR is more than just a satellite. It is a symbol of scientific ambition, global cooperation, and a step forward in understanding our rapidly changing planet. With unmatched capabilities and broad practical applications, it is expected to deliver insights that far exceed its financial cost. As India takes the lead in launching the mission, the world watches closely, anticipating a transformative leap in Earth science and climate preparedness.
NDTV
3 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
Trump, India, Pahalgam: When Terrorists Are Easier To Deal With Than Tariffs
Weeks after the Indian media engaged in a shrill diatribe against US President Donald Trump for claiming that he had ended the escalation between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, the public sentiment against the US seems to be softening, thanks to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing that the State Department is going to designate the Terrorist Resistance Front (TRF) as a terrorist organisation, with a specific reference to the Pahalgam attack. That's a handshake of no mean order, especially after a series of western 'analysts' had desired 'proof' of the outfit's involvement in the attack. All this, of course, occurs in parallel with Trump apparently threatening a 100% secondary tariff on anyone who trades with Russia. But hold on. That is a reference to a proposed legislation supported by both political parties, which demands that 500% tariffs be levied on states trading with Russia - India included. So, the 'tariff man' is being outpaced by his own Congress. Things are not always what they seem. TRF Gets A Handle First, the designation of the TRF as a 'Specially Designated Global Terrorist' has been welcomed by Foreign Minister Jaishankar as a "strong affirmation of Indo-US Counter terrorism cooperation", as indeed it is. Earlier, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had stated that India's efforts at the United Nations to get a similar listing had been blocked by Pakistan, and even a reference to it removed from a press statement by the Security Council on Pahalgam. So, the US move is not something to be set aside lightly. The TRF is an interesting entity. It announced its presence on encrypted platform Telegram after the abrogation of Article 370 and when the Lashkar-e-Taiba took a back seat due to pressure from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The TRF's name and imagery seems carefully chosen to avoid any "radical" religious flavour, as also to position itself as indigenous. But a series of attacks it has claimed, including against Makhan Lal Bindroo, a popular owner of a medical shop, as well as those against Sikh and Hindu schoolteachers, were clearly aimed at creating communal tensions. The outfit also threatened journalists and released 'lists' of those it was prepared to kill. Notably, the TRF was the first terrorist group to launch a twin drone attack, on the Jammu air base in 2021. In the Pahalgam incident, the group again claimed the attack on Telegram but back-tracked three days later as it became apparent that India was on the warpath and that the UN was getting ready to release a resolution. Unlike the LeT, the leadership of the TRF is diffused back in Pakistan, and their 'assets' are unknown. But their leaders in Pakistan have known and long-time Lashkar affiliations. One of them, Abu Qatal, who was shot in March this year in Jhelum, uses the same infiltration routes and is part of the United Jihad Council. So, if it walks, talks and looks like the LeT, it should be the LeT. The designation there is uncomfortable business for Rawalpindi - the now-famous 'lunch' of Field Marshal Asim Munir with Trump notwithstanding. Working Groups Are Working Hard Now consider this. Just days earlier, on July 16, the Wavelength Forum held in New Delhi brought together Quad partners to strengthen subsea cable connectivity and resilience across the Indo-Pacific region. Organised under the US State Department's 'CABLES' programme, it highlighted the critical role of subsea cables in supporting the global digital economy and the importance of using trusted vendors for construction, maintenance, and repair. That underlined India's growing importance as a digital hub accounting for some 20% of global internet traffic, and the common concerns of members. This delivered on the Quad foreign ministers' joint statement, which itself was short and crisp, unlike the usual long-winded and fuzzy documents earlier. It announced the first Quad Critical Minerals Initiative, the first Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network field training exercise, and a Quad Ports of the Future Partnership in the works. Separately, a read-out of the meeting between Foreign Minister Jaishankar and Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth was rich in content, noting 'dangers of aggression in the 'Asia Pacific' (a rather surprising nomenclature). Coming up is the signing of the next 10 Year Defense Framework, and progress on advanced technology policy reviews, which will take forward the landmark INDUS-X which has brought together innovators to US shores, as well as the launch of the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA), where our own innovators are racing ahead. Earlier, even as Operation Sindoor was unfolding, the Quad was holding a tabletop logistic exercise in Hawaii, while a joint working group on Aircraft Carrier Technology cooperation was held in May even as the operations wound down. In sum, there are more areas of cooperation that can be listed easily. And that's an ongoing process, set in place years ago, with the US administration showing every inclination to push all of this harder and faster. That Public Glitch Now consider the brouhaha on tariffs, which are announced with much fanfare even as a trade deal is being hinted at. That is not going to be easy as Trump wants access to agriculture, a sensitive area of Indian politicians and a huge voter base. True also that a bill sponsored by Senator Lindsey Graham, widely credited with urging a change of heart to Pakistan under Imran Khan, has sponsored a bill calling for the President to "increase the rate of duty on all goods and services imported into the United States from countries that knowingly engage in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products to at least 500% relative to the value of such goods and services; that's the Trump administration's effort to get Russia to stop a wasteful and vicious war". In Sum... Much can be said about this pointless arm-twisting of countries like India, which did not start the war and have their own populations to think of in terms of inflation from rising oil prices. But the point is, relations between countries are not one composite whole. One may differ violently with one issue even while cooperating closely on another. True, with the Trump administration, there is a deliberate public confrontation in policy, but bureaucracies work quietly behind the scenes on sorting out issues with a country that is otherwise a 'Major Defence Partner', which for the first time, is becoming a two-way street. In other words, it is profitable for US companies to work here in this and other fields. It's a slow journey, but it's got to a place where a certain velocity has been achieved. After all, this is a path undertaken since at least George W Bush's days. The dangers of Trump linking trade with almost everything else persists - like pushing Apple to set up shop elsewhere - but the core relationship is in place. That, in turn, is based on one unchanging principle of US policy; which is never to allow another country to overtake it. As China grows in absolute terms, that is one fundamental that will determine relations with India. The danger is that there are also those in Washington who see India as growing too fast for comfort. US bureaucracy would ideally like all 'partners' to just roll over and play dead. Delhi is hardly in that league, and is a hitch that needs careful manoeuvring. Think of a certain 'warming' of relations with China recently. It's a dangerous game, but it seems the present dispensation seems confident. There are squalls ahead. Meanwhile, prepare to open all sluices as the Quad summit comes up.
New Indian Express
4 days ago
- Politics
- New Indian Express
VS at his scathing best
'Those who fire skyrockets.' (Melpottu vaanam vidunnavar) On former President A P J Abdul Kalam and former ISRO chairmen Madhavan Nair and K Kasturirangan. VS remarked while explaining his party's stand against the Indo-US nuclear deal, after being provoked by a media person's statement that Kalam had endorsed the deal. 'If the concerned minister goes astray, I have the nerve to call and tell him 'you idiot (pozhan), it should not be done that way'.' On his cabinet colleague Binoy Viswam in a hypothetical context 'Grandmother' (Valyammachi) On Elizabeth Mammen Mathai during election campaigning 'Elder aunt' (Valyamma) On Sonia Gandhi 'Amul baby' On Rahul Gandhi 'Monkey' (Kurangan) On K E N Kunhahammed 'Jungle thieves who smuggle out temple assets in 'payasam' vessel.' (Payasapathrathil kshethramuthal kattukadathunna kaattu kallanmar) On the erstwhile Travancore royal family 'All students in Malappuram pass examination by copying.' (Malappurathe kuttikal muzhuvan copy adichanu pareeksha pass akunnath) While referring to examination malpractices 'That's right. Had it not been Sandeep's house, not even a dog would have gone there.' (Seriyanu. Athu Sandeepinte veedallenkill, oru pattiyum avide pokillayirunnu) Responding to an outburst by Mumbai terror attack victim NSG Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan's father who said 'No dog need come here' (ivide oru pattiyum varenda). 'She was used and thrown away.' (upayogichu, valicherinju) On Sindhu Joy who quit CPM to join the Congress, only to be sidelined 'You falling in hell where the worm does not die and the fire is not quenched. Ho! I cannot even think about it.' Quoting from the Bible, on K M Mani 'Everyone knows, she's famous. In what way, you can find out.' (Ellavarkum ariyamallo, avar prasasthayanu, ethu tharathil ennu ningal anweshichal mathi) On Lathika Subhash, his UDF rival in Malampuzha constituency 'He deserves to be hated' (ayaal verukkappettavanaanu) On businessman Faris Aboobacker 'Gunmon' On former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy's gunman
