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Axios
4 days ago
- Politics
- Axios
Iran's Khamenei claims U.S. strike didn't cause major damage to nuclear facilities
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei claimed in a video message published on Thursday that the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities had no major effect. Why it matters: Khamenei's video marked the first time he has been seen in a week. His absence has raised concerns about his health and whether he remains involved in Iran's decision-making. Khamenei is still believed to be hiding in the bunker, where he reportedly went amid fears of an assassination attempt from Israel at the start of the 12-day war between the two nations. What they're saying: Khamenei said in his video message that the U.S. entered the war because it felt it had to save Israel from being destroyed. "It entered the war to save it, but it did not achieve anything from this war. They attacked our nuclear facilities, but they were unable to do anything important," he said. Khamenei claimed President Trump"exaggerated" the results of the U.S. strikes on Iran. "They could not do anything, they could not achieve their goal, and they are exaggerating to cover up the truth," he said. He added that Iran "dealt America a hand slap in the face" by attacking one of the U.S. bases in the region and claimed that the Trump administration tried to minimize the damages caused. "It is a major attack, and this can be repeated in the future. If an attack on Iran occurs, the cost to the enemy will definitely be high," he said. Khamenei said Trump didn't want to destroy Iran's nuclear program but to force it to surrender to the U.S. demands, and said that "will never happen." State of play: Despite Khamenei's claims, Israeli intelligence assessments say the U.S. strikes caused severe damage to Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, that left the uranium enrichment system inoperable. A new report by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security said that the Israeli and U.S. attacks "have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program." "It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack," the report said. Nevertheless, the report said "there are residuals such as stocks of 60 percent, 20 percent and 3-5 percent enriched uranium and centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow." "These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium," the report said. Zoom out: The brief conflict between the two nations has come at a high cost for Iran's leader. Khamenei is facing the loss of top military leadership, the near-total destruction of Iran's nuclear program, the deaths of key nuclear scientists, the elimination of half his ballistic missile force, and the near-collapse of the nation's air defenses. The war ended with Iran at its weakest point since its devastating eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. Israeli and U.S. officials both claim that it will take Iran years to rebuild its military power, reestablish its proxy network and restore its deterrence.
Scientific American
6 days ago
- Politics
- Scientific American
Did the U.S. Really Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program?
Many in the world woke to the news on 22 June that the United States had bombed nuclear sites in Iran, with the goal of destroying the nation's ability to produce nuclear weapons. The raids targeted Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities in Fordow and Natanz, and its nuclear research centre in Isfahan, using stealth bombers to drop massive 'bunker-busters', and cruise missiles. Although Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, experts have long assessed that Iran was close to having the capability of building nuclear weapons if it chose to do so. The US attacks followed a bombing campaign by Israel, which has since carried out further attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. On 23 June, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that "very significant damage is expected to have occurred" at the underground Fordow site. Researchers at academic institutions and think tanks are also assessing the potential impacts of the attacks on Iran's nuclear capabilities. Analysts have said that the attacks probably set the nuclear programme back substantially, but not permanently. In particular, Iran could have moved stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium, and perhaps some enrichment centrifuges, elsewhere. David Albright, a nuclear policy specialist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington DC, spoke to Nature about what researchers know. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. How do you assess the impact of the bombings on Iran's nuclear capabilities? There aren't many researchers who are able to assess the impact of the bombings. We have decades of experience with the Iranian nuclear programme, so we know their facilities and activities very well. And we have great access to satellite imagery — which we have to buy. We try to buy some every day. And we utilize analysts who have decades of experience to analyze these images. We also have lots of contacts with governments, and we have colleagues who also have contacts with governments. A lot of the damage is on the surface, so it's a question of knowing what the building did [in terms of its role in the nuclear program]. We rely on our repository of information about the sites that are attacked. So it's pretty straightforward. Obviously, more problematic is the underground sites. When we initially assessed Israel's bombing of Natanz, three days later I saw a very small crater above the underground hall. I could work out and link it to a type of Earth-penetrator weapon that Israel is known to have. It would leave a really small crater when it went in, and the damage would be underground. The United States bombed it with a much more powerful Earth penetrator. So damage is probably more extensive. How and when will we know for sure the extent of the damage? As nuclear experts, we'd like to see this done with diplomatic agreements, where Iran would allow intrusive inspections into its programme. If that does not happen, then it's the job of US and Israeli intelligence to assess the damage. They're looking at communications intercepts, or trying to recruit people on the inside to reveal information. Would there be radioactive materials detected outside Natanz, Esfahan and Fordow if the attacks were successful? So far, the IAEA reports no such leaks. And it appears that Iran had moved the enriched uranium stockpiles in the days before the bombings. The United States has said that the target of its bombings was the facilities, so they understand they are not getting at the nuclear material. Can shockwaves damage enrichment facilities even without a direct hit? Shockwaves can cause a lot of damage. They will push against the centrifuges, and if they're spinning, it can cause the rotor inside to crash against the wall. It's anyone's guess how much is destroyed without additional information. But the idea of the US bombing was that Israel may not have done enough damage. Would it pose more serious environmental risks if Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant were bombed? Israel has said it will not attack nuclear reactors. And Israel negotiated with Russia not to attack the Russians who operate Bushehr. But yes, it really could be disastrous. The decay products of uranium fission that accumulate inside a reactor are much more dangerous than the uranium itself. That's why you don't want to have a nuclear reactor involved in a war.
NDTV
6 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
Iran May Have More Underground Nuclear Sites For Uranium Enrichment: Report
Despite a series of strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, experts warn that the Islamic Republic likely has more underground sites that could be rapidly converted into uranium enrichment facilities. "I bet they dug a lot of facilities and didn't put anything in them," Jeffrey Lewis, professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told The NY Post. "Then they have opportunities to move different things around [like the materials from Fordow] and to bring different facilities into operation." The warning comes amid questions about the fate of Iran's nuclear stockpile. While President Donald Trump declared that Iran's key sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were "completely and totally obliterated," US and Israeli intelligence now believe Tehran moved a substantial amount of enriched uranium and equipment out before the attacks. "We don't know what was taken away but, obviously, it was something important," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. "They had stocks [of enriched uranium] and they had centrifuges. So, those are things they could have removed." Mr Albright has previously identified a new underground complex south of Natanz, which he says could be converted into a fully operational enrichment facility. "Could be [where the uranium went]," he said. "But I think Israel would know that, they certainly are capable of following those trucks." He said Iran is unlikely to resume enrichment immediately, as the regime is too destabilised and risk-averse in the short term. Still, Mr Albright warned the pause may not last. Within "six months", Tehran could regroup and begin operating centrifuges to enrich uranium to 60 per cent. Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence and National Security and Technology Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Iran's nuclear strategy is defined by redundancy and long-term planning. "One thing that Iran has continued to do is dig deeper and prepare. They love keeping their options open." On June 12, a day before Israel struck Iran, Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, announced that the country had completed construction of a new enrichment site. "The new site is fully constructed and located in a secure, invulnerable location," Mr Eslami said. "As soon as centrifuge installation and setup are complete, enrichment will begin." Iran's efforts to expand military infrastructure underground have also been widely publicised. In 2023, Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, announced that Iran had constructed 2,200 km of "underground cities" to house advanced weapon systems. These fortified networks reportedly contain missile launchers, drone platforms, oceangoing helicopter carriers, and warships, many of which are linked to Iran's southern waterways and offshore islands. Despite Iran's military buildup, the central concern remains its nuclear material. US Vice President JD Vance admitted Sunday that enriched uranium, enough to construct up to ten nuclear bombs, remains unaccounted for.
New York Post
6 days ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Iran likely has more underground sites it's could turn into uranium facilities: experts
While President Trump has announced that Iran's 'key' nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan have been 'completely and totally obliterated,' experts said there could be more locations of concern. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, told The Post that at least one other location in Iran has been dug out and could be turned into a uranium enrichment facility. In 2022, Albright published a report placing a new 'underground complex … south of the main uranium enrichment site' at Natanz. Advertisement Satellite photos taken of the Fordow nuclear facility days before the bombing, show cargo trucks lined up in front. 7 Prior to bombs being dropped on Iran's 'key' nuclear facilities, trucks were spotted at Fordow. US Air Force 7 Iran's Fordow nuclear facility after being hit by airstrikes. MAXAR Technologies Advertisement 'We don't know was taken away but, obviously, it was something important,' Albright acknowledged. 'They had stocks [of enriched uranium] and they had centrifuges. So, those are things they could have removed.' As for whether the materials could have been taken to the additional facility he wrote about, Albright said, 'Could be. But I think Israel would know that — they certainly are capable of following those trucks. 'I think it would be very risky,' he added. 'I think Iran is too worried and too scared to really start a [new] enrichment plant, let alone make a move to produce nuclear grade uranium and a nuclear weapon right now.' While he believes there is a low probability that Iran could be ready to get another facility up and running quickly, Albright said, 'You want to make sure that they're not having a couple thousand centrifuges somewhere, enriching 60% enriched uranium. But I don't think they would do that. I think they're just too disorganized and in shock to do that now — but wait six months.' Advertisement 7 David Alright believes that there is low probability of Iran getting another nuclear facility up and running quickly. CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images 7 Iranian officials, including the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami (right), examining nuclear technology. IRANIAN PRESIDENT OFFICE HANDOUT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, maintained earlier this month that the country had an enrichment site that he described as being in a 'secure and invulnerable location.' 'The new site is fully constructed and located in a secure, invulnerable location,' Eslami said on June 12. 'As soon as centrifuge installation and setup are complete, enrichment will begin.' Advertisement Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said that Iran can easily have any number of underground sites that are partially built and ready to be turned into facilities for building nuclear weapons. 'I bet they dug a lot of facilities and didn't put anything in them,' he told The Post. 'Then they have opportunities to move different things around [like the materials from Fordow] and to bring different facilities into operation.' 7 Emily Harding told The Post that 'one thing Iran has continued to do is dig deeper.' Courtesy of Emily Harding 7 Jeffrey Lewis believes that Iran has dug out more additional facilities but not yet built them out. Jeffrey Lewis Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence and National Security and Technology Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed: 'One thing that Iran has continued to do is dig deeper and prepare. They love keeping their options open.' By cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has been obligated to be transparent about nuclear material and activities. But establishing facilities without yet making them nuclear operational, Lewis said, 'would have allowed Iran to follow the letter of the law — but not the spirit.' Eslami's June 12 claim came after Iran was censured by the IAEA for failing to be transparent under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. 7 Map of nuclear facilities that were hit by bombs during US airstrikes. Rob Jejenich / NY Post Design Advertisement Harding believes that Eslami's claim could be as much to assure the Iranians as to unnerve the West. 'The Iranian leaders have consistently tried to communicate to their population that they are succeeding in their nuclear ambitions,' he said. 'One way to do that is to say that they continue to enrich [uranium] and that they are a nuclear power.'
Euronews
7 days ago
- Politics
- Euronews
Have US strikes ‘obliterated' Iran's nuclear sites, as Trump claims?
President Donald Trump has said that US strikes overnight on Sunday have 'completely and totally obliterated" Iran's three flagship nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Yet Dan Caine, who presides over the US' military chiefs, refrained from drawing firm conclusions on Sunday, saying it would 'take some time' to fully assess the extent of the damage. Officials in Tehran have downplayed the impact of the airstrikes on the country's nuclear facilities. The attack, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, involved 125 US military aircraft, including seven B-2 stealth bombers carrying 14 bunker buster bombs weighing a staggering 13,000 kg each. In parallel to the aerial bombings, a US submarine launched as many as 30 cruise missiles. Fresh satellite images now provide a first glimpse into the aftermath of the strikes. They suggest significant damage has been inflicted on the facilities, supporting recent statements made by the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi. Experts say that while there is ample evidence of material damage, the setback to Iran's nuclear programme is yet to be seen. Signs of significant damage to Fordow's enrichment halls Fordow is Iran's secretive enrichment plant buried deep inside a mountain 30km north of the city of Qom. Only the US' bunker-busting bombs – specifically their 13,000-kg GBU-59 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) – were considered capable of penetrating into the mountain and damaging Fordow's enrichment halls. The GBU-59 can penetrate an estimated 18m of concrete or 61m of earth before exploding, while Fordow's enrichment halls are believed to be buried as deep as 90m underground. Post-strike satellite images provided by Maxar Technologies — a US space technology company — show six craters at the Fordow site, which experts at the US-based non-profit Institute for Science and International Security believe are penetration holes from the GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs. They say the holes are 'near the ventilation shaft of the underground complex, enabling an easier pathway for the MOPs (bunker busting bombs) to the deeply buried halls.' These halls, sometimes referred to as cascade halls, contain a series of uranium-enriching centrifuges. According to the IAEA, Iran is believed to have been storing as much as 400 kg of uranium enriched to the near-weapons-grade level of 60% at Fordow. The experts at the Institute for Science and International Security also note that tunnels leading to the halls were backfilled with soil in an apparent attempt by the Iranians to prepare for the attack. 'It is highly likely that the enrichment halls were severely damaged or even destroyed in the attack. Debris from the explosions can be seen on the side of the mountain,' they conclude. Analysts at the London-based Open Source Centre (OSC) say images from Fordow suggest some of the 'impact points' appear to be 'directly above the main cascade hall.' "Given the explosive payload utilised and the extreme(ly) vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred," IAEA's Grossi said on Monday. The UN nuclear watchdog has not yet been able to carry out inspections on the targeted nuclear facilities, and has pointed out that "no one" is currently able to fully assess the extent of the damage. The agency is now demanding full access to the sites. Earlier this month, it accused Iran of failing to "cooperate fully" with its prior inspections. While the photographic evidence points to considerable destruction, doubts have been raised as to whether Iranians had removed stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium from the Fordow enrichment halls immediately before the attack. Satellite images show that as many as 16 trucks were stationed along the access road to the tunnel entrances at Fordow less than 48 hours before the attack, suggesting a last-minute scramble to move the uranium to an undisclosed site. Natanz facilities 'destroyed', experts estimate Natanz, believed to be the site of Iran's largest nuclear enrichment centre, was also impacted by a GBU-57 bunker buster, according to experts' analysis of satellite images. 'A clear impact penetration hole reportedly caused by a GBU-57 (MOP) can be seen just above the buried enrichment halls. This explosion likely destroyed the facility,' experts at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISS) said. The site had suffered two previous strikes by Israel since the conflict broke out on 13 June. Clear damage to over-the-ground facilities at Isfahan The final site targeted in the US operation was the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre, believed to be home to hundreds of nuclear scientists and a key research centre for Iran's nuclear programme. Cruise missiles fired from the US submarine involved in the coordinated attack are reported to have struck both buildings and tunnel entrances at the facility. Satellite images from the site show visible damage to the over-the-ground facilities. The site had already been targeted by Israeli strikes since the conflict broke out. Experts at the Institute for Science and International Security say they believe a uranium conversion facility and tunnel entrances leading to an underground complex were destroyed at the site. It is believed that, as in the case of Fordow, tunnels had been backfilled in an attempt to minimise damage and the dispersion of radioactive or polluting material as a result of the strike. Yet Dr Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in nuclear non-proliferation and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, believes the strikes on Isfahan have failed to destroy the main tunnels believed to contain highly-enriched uranium at the facility. It is highly likely that such material was transported from the Isfahan facility in the run-up to the attack, as in the case of Fordow, Dr Lewis added. "We ought to judge this strike by its real purpose, not the legal camouflage of preemptive self-defense. If the strike leaves the current regime, or something very much like it, in power with a nuclear option then it will have been a strategic failure," he said. Kamuran Samar contributed to the visuals used in this report.
