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Potential fallout of Israel-Iran conflict: ICMAP for ensuring 90-day strategic oil reserves
Potential fallout of Israel-Iran conflict: ICMAP for ensuring 90-day strategic oil reserves

Business Recorder

time21-06-2025

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

Potential fallout of Israel-Iran conflict: ICMAP for ensuring 90-day strategic oil reserves

KARACHI: To address the challenges arising from escalating regional tensions, the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMAP) has proposed a set of strategic policy recommendations. These include the establishment of 90-day strategic oil reserves, formation of an economic task force, and adoption of oil price hedging mechanisms to help shield Pakistan from the potential fallout of the Israel-Iran conflict. In response to escalating regional tensions, the ICMAP has issued a timely and policy-focused assessment of the potential economic fallout from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Developed by ICMAP's Research and Publications Department, the report complements the government's recent decision to establish a high-level committee, headed by the Finance Minister, to evaluate emerging economic risks. ICMAP's assessment underscores that while the conflict remains geographically limited, its indirect economic consequences are already rippling across global markets, particularly affecting energy, trade, and financial systems. For Pakistan, the exposure is significant due to its dependence on imported fuel, critical maritime trade routes through the Gulf, and the livelihoods of over four million expatriate workers based in the Middle East. Central to the analysis is a warning that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil and LNG transit, could drive oil prices to between $100 and $130 per barrel. This would substantially increase Pakistan's energy import bill, elevate power generation costs, and accelerate inflation. Domestic diesel prices could rise by more than 30%, with wide-ranging effects on food production, transportation, and household expenditures. The report further highlights rising risks to financial stability. Depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee, increased external debt servicing costs, and fiscal pressure from potential fuel subsidies could erode macroeconomic resilience. Exporters are already facing sharp increases in shipping insurance premiums, reportedly climbing from $400 to $2,000 per container, thereby undermining export competitiveness. In addition, supply chain disruptions and elevated freight charges are expected to impact industrial production - particularly in key sectors such as textiles, chemicals, and edible oils. To address these challenges, ICMAP has outlined a set of strategic policy recommendations. At the forefront is the proposal to establish a Strategic Economic Task Force comprising the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, Ministry of Defence, and the State Bank of Pakistan. This high-level task force would be responsible for monitoring global developments and coordinating timely, cross-institutional policy responses to safeguard Pakistan's economic stability. The Institute also recommends expanding Pakistan's strategic petroleum reserves from the current 21 days to at least 90 days of national demand. This critical buffer could be financed through sovereign Sukuk, modelled after successful international practices, to enhance energy security and reduce vulnerability to global supply shocks. Additional recommendations include the adoption of Shariah-compliant oil price hedging instruments for up to 30% of imports to manage exposure to international price volatility. ICMAP also advocates diversifying oil procurement by pursuing local currency trade agreements with countries such as Russia, Iran, and China. Accelerating the modernization of local oil refineries is also advised, which could reduce reliance on imported refined fuels and potentially save up to $1 billion annually. ICMAP further recommends for reversing recent taxes on solar panel imports and fast-tracking the implementation of the 10,000 MW Solar Initiative to promote clean energy and enhance long-term energy resilience. On the external front, it emphasizes the need to safeguard overseas remittances by engaging Gulf countries, incentivizing formal remittance channels, and supporting returning workers to sustain household incomes and foreign exchange inflows. ICMAP further suggests applying for financing under the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) and establishing an Energy Shock Stabilization Fund in collaboration with multilateral development partners to strengthen fiscal buffers. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

ICMA conducts SWOT analysis of Islamic banking sector
ICMA conducts SWOT analysis of Islamic banking sector

Business Recorder

time24-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

ICMA conducts SWOT analysis of Islamic banking sector

KARACHI: The Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMA) has conducted a detailed SWOT analysis of Pakistan's Islamic banking sector, highlighting its rapid growth, key challenges, and future potential as the country moves toward full Shariah compliance by 2027. According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data for September 2024, Islamic banking assets grew by 17.4% year-on-year to Rs. 9,881 billion. Deposits increased by 23.3% to Rs. 7,596 billion, net financing rose by 7.5% to Rs. 3,252 billion, and investments grew by 22.3% to Rs. 4,803 billion. Islamic banking now represents 19% of the total banking industry's assets and 23.2% of deposits. Islamic banks have shown greater resilience during economic downturns due to their asset-backed financing model, which provides more stability compared to interest-based conventional banks. A landmark achievement was the Rs. 50 billion (USD 170 million) raised by Lucky Investments Limited in a single day through the IPO of its Lucky Islamic Money Market Fund — the largest Shariah-compliant mutual fund launch in Pakistan's history. Key Islamic banks such as Meezan Bank, Al Baraka Bank, Faysal Bank, and BankIslami are expanding their branch networks and customer base across the country. These banks enjoy strong public trust by offering a diverse range of Shariah-compliant financial products. Despite these strengths, the sector faces challenges including a shortage of trained Shariah scholars and Islamic finance professionals, limited public awareness and financial literacy, and gaps in legal and regulatory frameworks for full Shariah implementation. Additionally, product innovation and technology adoption lag behind conventional banks, and Islamic banking penetration remains low in rural areas and among small businesses. Looking forward, Pakistan's Islamic banking sector has strong growth opportunities. The government's goal of fully Islamizing the banking sector by 2027 will open new markets. Emerging areas such as Islamic fintech, Takaful (Islamic insurance), and Sukuk (Islamic bonds), combined with rising global demand for ethical finance, will support this growth. Strategic partnerships and investments from Gulf and Southeast Asian economies, along with government incentives for Islamic finance development, add further momentum. However, the sector must navigate threats such as competition from conventional banks offering Islamic windows, potential delays in legal reforms, macroeconomic instability, and global financial regulations that may not align with Islamic banking principles. There is also the risk of reputational damage if Shariah compliance or governance standards are not rigorously maintained. ICMA stresses that addressing these challenges through stronger regulation, enhanced public education, and faster technological innovation will help Pakistan's Islamic banking sector reach its target of a 30% market share by 2025. This growth is essential to promote financial inclusion and support Pakistan's overall economic development.

ICMAP proposes four-pillar crypto adoption framework and CBDC launch plan
ICMAP proposes four-pillar crypto adoption framework and CBDC launch plan

Business Recorder

time09-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

ICMAP proposes four-pillar crypto adoption framework and CBDC launch plan

KARACHI: The Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMAP), through its Research and Publications Department, has unveiled a comprehensive policy proposal titled 'ICMA Proposes Crypto Adoption Framework and CBDC Launch Plan to Government.' This timely initiative introduces a Four-Pillar Framework for the responsible adoption of crypto currencies in Pakistan and outlines a strategic Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Development and Regulatory Launch Plan. The proposal is intended for consideration by the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) and relevant policymakers, aiming to facilitate a secure and well-regulated digital financial ecosystem in the country. In view of the rapidly evolving global landscape of digital finance and crypto investments, ICMAP's proposal serves as a much-needed foundation for Pakistan's policy direction. The Four-Pillar Framework focuses on key dimensions necessary for crypto integration, each supported by international case studies to guide implementation. The first pillar emphasizes the creation of a clear regulatory framework. It highlights the need for robust, transparent, and internationally aligned regulations to support the development of a safe crypto environment. This includes full compliance with Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CFT) measures, as well as lessons from other jurisdictions that have effectively implemented such frameworks. The second pillar advocates for alignment with global crypto and blockchain standards. ICMAP stresses that Pakistan must actively engage with international standard-setting bodies and adopt best practices to ensure credibility and innovation. This involves the appropriate classification of digital assets, setting up effective controls for digital asset transactions, and encouraging blockchain innovation. The case study provided shows how a country successfully built a compliant yet dynamic crypto ecosystem by closely working with global organizations. The third pillar calls for active industry-government collaboration to encourage responsible innovation while maintaining financial stability. ICMAP highlights that close coordination between regulators and industry stakeholders is essential to strike a balance between enabling innovation and safeguarding the economy. The included case study illustrates how a country effectively fostered such cooperation, promoting growth while ensuring regulatory oversight. The fourth and final pillar underlines the importance of consumer protection and financial stability. ICMAP recommends clear and enforceable measures to ensure that consumers are protected from abuse and that markets operate with integrity. A case study demonstrates how another country implemented robust consumer safeguards in the crypto sector, ensuring both user confidence and market stability. Complementing the crypto framework, ICMAP has proposed a structured Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Development and Regulatory Launch Plan. Recognizing the need for a state-backed digital alternative to crypto currencies, this plan recommends that the State Bank of Pakistan introduce a CBDC to enhance regulatory control, reduce volatility, and expand financial inclusion. A government-issued CBDC would provide a stable digital option that supports innovation without compromising monetary sovereignty. The proposal also reflects on global investment trends, noting that crypto currencies have attracted investors due to their higher returns compared to traditional stock markets and real interest rates. As more countries increase their exposure to digital assets, ICMAP believes Pakistan must take strategic steps to prepare for the financial future. The document also provides valuable insights into global developments in CBDC implementation, drawing lessons from countries at the forefront of digital currency adoption. Through this initiative, ICMAP reaffirms its role as a leading policy advisor and thought leader in Pakistan's financial landscape. The Institute remains committed to supporting policymakers in developing forward-looking, well-regulated frameworks that enable innovation, protect consumers, and preserve economic stability. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

'Pakistan's agri-tax among highest in region'
'Pakistan's agri-tax among highest in region'

Express Tribune

time22-03-2025

  • Business
  • Express Tribune

'Pakistan's agri-tax among highest in region'

Listen to article The Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMA) has released a report in its latest issue of the ICMA Economic Intelligence, highlighting the significant challenges of enforcing the newly introduced agricultural income tax. The tax, implemented under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions, has rates between 15% and 45%, with a 10% super tax on high-income landowners. This makes Pakistan's agricultural tax among the highest in the region, surpassing neighbouring countries like India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The report emphasised the difficulties in enforcement due to outdated land records, fluctuating farm incomes, weak tax collection mechanisms and political resistance. Small farmers are particularly vulnerable, with the risk of higher product prices and inflation. ICMA suggested a gradual implementation, starting with large landowners, and called for modernising land records, enhancing digital tools and providing incentives to improve compliance.

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