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Business Recorder
17 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Japanese yen-led dollar pullback to offer mild support to Indian rupee at open
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to open slightly higher on Tuesday, supported by a retreat in the dollar index that was largely triggered by a post-electionrally in the Japanese yen. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.20-86.22 range, versus 86.2925 in the previous session. On Monday, the Indian rupee weakened to 86.35 per dollar, its lowest level in a month, extending its losing streak to four sessions. Bankers attributed the decline to sustained dollar demand from importers and positioning in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market. A lack of equity inflows has added to the pressure on the currency. The trading range on USD/INR 'has probably shifted higher,' with the 86.00–86.10 now acting as a support zone, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. 'Interbank is more inclined to buying dips than trying to call the top,' the trader added. The rupee at open is likely to find some support from the drop in the dollar index, which slid 0.62% on Monday — its steepest fall in over a month. The decline was spurred by a 1% jump in the yen. While the ruling coalition lost its majority, Prime Minister Ishiba's remarks that he would stay offered comfort to the yen, analysts said. Outside the yen, other Asian currencies were mixed on Tuesday, with the focus squarely on any progress on trade talks before the August 1 deadline for countries to strike deals with the U.S. or face high tariffs. Focus will also be on the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled he may dissent at next week's meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged. 'Waller remains in the distinct minority of two. We'll likely need to see very soft data, especially on the labour market, to convince investors that early cuts are on the table,' ING Bank said in a note.


Business Recorder
11-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Indian rupee expected to dip at open after Trump mulls bigger tariff stick
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to open lower on Friday, pressured by dollar's broad strength after US President Donald Trump said he planned to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trade partners. The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated the local currency opening in the 85.70-85.74 range, versus 85.6350 on Thursday. 'This slight up move (on dollar/rupee) does not change much in terms of the near-term direction,' a currency trader at a bank said. 'Interbank will probably wait to see if the up move extends and then will look to fade it. Selling near to 85.90-86.00 has good risk reward, when you consider the recent price action.' Tariff headlines lifted the dollar index, putting pressure on Asian currencies. Trump's threat of raising blanket tariffs to 15–20% from the current 10% intensifies concerns about their economic impact. Further, Trump moved to slap a 35% tariff on Canadian goods from August 1, deepening uncertainty around the direction of US trade policy. Throughout the week, Trump has rolled out a series of developments on the US tariffs targeting trading partners, leaving investors to navigate the shifting landscape. So far, the reaction across Asian equities, forex, and rates markets has been largely muted. The rupee itself has not been significantly affected, holding within an 85.50–86.00 range this week - a band that is 'broadly in line with expectations,' the currency trader said. While the dollar index has risen 0.8% this week, the rally is modest in the context of its 11% decline over the first half of the year. 'Our baseline call remains that the dollar will show significantly reduced interest in tariff noise. Data remains a bigger driver, and the potential FX impact of next week's US inflation figures still looks much bigger than trade news,' ING Bank said in a note.


Business Recorder
05-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
THE RUPEE PKR: 0.04pc decline
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee weakened against the US dollar, depreciating 0.04% in the interbank market on Friday. At close, the currency settled at 283.97, a loss of Re0.11. On Thursday, the currency settled at 283.86. Internationally, the US dollar held gains on Friday after President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill across the final hurdle and pressure mounted on countries to secure trade deals with the United States. The greenback rallied from multi-year lows against the euro and British pound hit earlier in the week after stronger than expected US jobs data pushed out the timing for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. New Zealand's kiwi dollar, a common proxy for risk appetite, rose 0.2% to $0.608 after US stocks climbed to new record levels. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' of spending and tax cuts that is estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt. With the US closed for Independence Day, attention turns to Trump's July 9 deadline when sweeping tariffs take effect on countries like Japan that have not yet secured trade agreements. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against major peers, had its worst first half since 1973 as Trump's chaotic roll-out of sweeping tariffs stoked concerns about the U.S. economy and the safety of Treasuries. Oil prices, a key indicator of currency parity, fell more than 1% on Friday, pressured by expectations that OPEC+ producers will decide this weekend to raise output and an Iranian reaffirmation of its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation. Brent crude futures were down 70 cents, or 1.02%, at $68.10 a barrel by 10:06 ET (1406 GMT) while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 72 cents, or 1.07%, to $66.28. Trade was thin due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Both contracts were on track for a small weekly gain, with Brent trading about 0.5% higher than last Friday's close and WTI around 1.2% higher. Open-market movement In the open market, the PKR lost 35 paise for buying and remained unchanged for selling against USD, closing at 285.41 and 286.40, respectively. Against Euro, the PKR gained 38 paise for buying and 16 paise for selling, closing at 335.69 and 338.20, respectively. Against UAE Dirham, the PKR remained unchanged for both buying and selling, closing at 77.68 and 78.10, respectively. Against Saudi Riyal, the PKR remained unchanged for both buying and selling, closing at 75.98 and 76.40, respectively. ======================== Open Bid Rs 285.41 Open Offer Rs 286.40 ======================== Interbank Closing Rates: Interbank Closing Rates For Dollar on Friday ======================== Open Bid Rs 283.97 Open Offer Rs 284.16 ======================== RUPEE IN LAHORE: The Pak rupee witnessed a stable closing both against the US dollar and the British pound at the weekend. According to local market sources, the Pak rupee closed at Rs 285.75 and Rs 286.40 against the US dollar compared to the previous closing of Rs 285.75 and Rs 286.40, respectively. However, regarding the British pound, the Pak rupee witnessed a closing at Rs 390.00 and Rs 392.60 against the previous closing of Rs 390.00 and Rs 391.90 respectively. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025


Business Recorder
20-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
THE RUPEE PKR: marginal decline
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee posted marginal decline against the US dollar, depreciating 0.03% during trading in the interbank market on Thursday. At close, the local currency settled at 283.64, a loss of Re0.09 against the greenback. On Wednesday, the local unit closed at 283.55. Internationally, the US dollar firmed on Thursday, buoyed by safe-haven demand due to the looming threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East and possible US involvement, while investors weighed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautionary tone on inflation. After a muted start in Asia hours, the US dollar advanced across the board, weighing heavily on risk sensitive currencies after a report said US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days. The Australian dollar fell as much as 0.5% but was last down 0.3% at $0.6489, while the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.5% to $0.5998. Emerging market currencies also struggled, with the South Korean won 1% weaker. Rapidly rising geopolitical tensions have led to the dollar swiftly reclaiming its safe-haven status, making inroads against the yen, euro and the Swiss franc. Iran and Israel traded further air attacks on Thursday, with the conflict entering its seventh day. Concerns over potential U.S. involvement have also grown, as President Donald Trump kept the world guessing about whether the United States will join Israel's bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites. The conflict has heightened fears of broader regional instability, compounded by the spillover effects of the Gaza war. Oil prices, a key indicator of currency parity, rose on Thursday after Israel and Iran continued to exchange missile attacks overnight and US. President Donald Trump's stance on the conflict kept investors on edge. Brent crude futures rose $1.60, or 2.1%, to $78.29 a barrel by 1030 ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for Julywas up $1.64, or 2.1%, at $78.34. Brent had surged to its highest in nearly five months at $78.50 on June 13, when Israel began its attacks. Open-market movement In the open market, the PKR lost 27 paise for buying and 11 paise for selling against USD, closing at 284.13 and 285.69, respectively. Against Euro, the PKR gained 64 paise for buying and 88 paise for selling, closing at 324.57 and 327.45, respectively. Against UAE Dirham, the PKR lost 15 paise for buying and 10 paise for selling, closing at 77.28 and 78.02, respectively. Against Saudi Riyal, the PKR lost 15 paise for buying and 9 paise for selling, closing at 75.55 and 76.25, respectively. ======================== Open Bid Rs 284.13 Open Offer Rs 285.69 ======================== Interbank Closing Rates: Interbank Closing Rates For Dollar on Thursday ======================== Open Bid Rs 283.64 Open Offer Rs 283.84 ======================== RUPEE IN LAHORE: The Pak rupee stayed stable against the US while gaining impressively against the British pound. According to local market sources, the Pak rupee closed at Rs 285.25 and Rs 285.70 against the US dollar compared to the previous closing of Rs 284.50 and Rs 285.50, respectively. However, regarding the British pound, the Pak rupee witnessed a closing at Rs 379.75 and Rs 383.10 against the previous closing of Rs 382.50 and Rs 387.60 respectively. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025


Business Recorder
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Indian rupee set for calm open amid yuan watch, two-sided flows
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Wednesday and hold a narrow range, as traders monitor the Chinese yuan for cues amid China-US trade developments and keep an eye on flows. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 85.58-85.62 range, versus the close of 85.6025 in the previous session. The rupee's intraday range over the last two sessions has been limited to just about 20 paisa, underscoring how volatility has subsided. Interbank dealers have broadly pegged the near-term range on the dollar/rupee at 85.40–85.50 to 86.00–86.10. Mild bearish bias for Indian rupee on dollar strength; US-China talks eyed 'Within this range, which now seems increasingly entrenched, there is good two-way interest,' a currency trader at a private bank said. 'At the top end, exporters and speculators tend to step in, while at the bottom, corporates are active dollar buyers.' The rupee's 10-day daily realized volatility has fallen to around 3%, its lowest level in more than two months. It's not just the rupee—volatility across most Asian currencies has declined and now sits well below recent peaks. Receding concerns over a damaging trade war between the US and its major trading partners have helped temper volatility and boosted appetite for risk assets.