Latest news with #InterestRate
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Low rates do not push credit growth: BCG
Mumbai: A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) warns that Indian banks must prepare for a period of heightened interest rate volatility after more than a decade of relatively stable and downward-trending rates. The study, Interest Rate Sensitivity in Indian Banking, highlights that the impact of policy rate changes on bank performance is neither immediate nor uniform, and that credit growth is more dependent on borrower sentiment and lender confidence than on rates alone. Empirical evidence underscores this point: credit growth remained weak during 2014–2016 and 2018–2020 despite declining or stable rates, while lending surged in 2022–2023 amid rising rates. The only clear instance where falling rates aligned with credit growth was during 2016–2018. BCG finds that unless credit demand is robust, rate cuts—unless sustained for 18–24 months—rarely drive significant lending increases. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the repo rate by 250 basis points between 2022 and 2023 to tackle inflation, only to cut it by 100 basis points in early 2025 to boost growth. This policy reversal reflects mounting external risks—geopolitical tensions and structural imbalances in the global financial system—that now weigh more heavily on India's interest rate path than domestic growth-inflation trade-offs. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 5 Books Warren Buffett Wants You to Read In 2025 Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo BCG's report urges banks to abandon linear forecasting and adopt scenario-based planning. It shows that repo rate changes take 12–24 months to influence key metrics such as credit, deposits, and Net Interest Income (NII), with public sector banks (PSBs) proving more responsive than private ones. A 50 basis point repo hike, for example, led to a 1.4% increase in advances for PSBs, compared to 1.16% overall. Interestingly, deposit mobilisation showed little correlation with interest rates. PSBs, in particular, were largely unaffected, thanks to their stable depositor base. Even private banks responded weakly. Factors such as customer engagement, competition, and liquidity management mattered more than monetary policy. By contrast, NII was highly rate-sensitive. A 50 basis point increase in the repo rate boosted NII by 1.11% across all scheduled commercial banks, and by 1.45% for PSBs. Rate cuts, predictably, led to income declines. To navigate this shifting landscape, BCG recommends overhauling internal pricing frameworks, which still rely too heavily on historical cost of funds. This misaligns profitability and misallocates capital. A move toward marginal cost-based pricing and improved balance sheet simulations is essential. Meanwhile, changing saver preferences—toward mutual funds, pensions, and direct investments—mean banks must use data science to better understand and serve depositors, the report said. Reply to allReplyForward Add reaction Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Zawya
08-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
CBUAE maintains interest rates unchanged at 4.40%
ABU DHABI: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has decided to maintain the Base Rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility (ODF) at 4.40%. This decision was taken following the US Federal Reserve's announcement today to keep the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB) unchanged. The CBUAE has also decided to maintain the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE at 50 basis points above the Base Rate for all standing credit facilities. The Base Rate, which is anchored to the US Federal Reserve's IORB, signals the general stance of monetary policy and provides an effective floor for overnight money market interest rates in the UAE.
Mint
05-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Stock market today: Trade setup for Nifty 50 to India-Pakistan tension; Eight stocks to buy or sell on Monday
Stock Market Today: The benchmark Nifty-50 index during the week ending 2 May, closed at 24,346.70 on a positive note and was up 1.3% week on week. The Bank Nifty at 55,115.35 was 0.8% while Realty, pharma and Autos were among top gainers, while metals, FMCG and Utilities were the top losers. Broader markets closed marginally lower. For Nifty 24,200 would act as a sacrosanct support zone and above this level, its positive momentum up to 24,600–24,800. On the flip side, below 24,200, the chances of hitting the 200-day SMA or 24,050 would increase, said Amol Athawale, VP- Technical Research, Kotak Securities. For Bank Nifty, 55,800 would be the immediate breakout level and above this, it could move up to 56,100–56,500, added Athawale. The coming week is crucial, packed with key domestic and global triggers. With developments regarding tariff and geopolitical tensions with Pakistan will still remain on the radar. On the macroeconomic front, investors would be eyeing the HSBC Composite PMI and HSBC Services PMI Final data. While on the global front, Fed Interest Rate Decision is due on 7th May where they would be discussing about the future rate cut path, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. On the corporate earnings front, several prominent companies—including M&M, Coal India, Asian Paints, L&T, Titan, Coforge, One 97 Communication, Pidilite Industries and Dr, Reddy's Labs—are set to release their quarterly results. Globally, updates related to tariffs and trade will also be watched closely. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, has recommended two stock picks for today. Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, suggested three stocks, while Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager — Technical Research, at Prabhudas Lilladher has given three stocks picks. CarTrade Tech Ltd- Bagadia recommends buying CarTrade Tech at ₹ 1768.2 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 1700 for a target price of ₹ 1900 CARTRADE showcases a robust bullish reversal on the daily chart, recovering sharply after facing selling pressure in early April. The stock has regained strong upward momentum, the stock has shown consistent higher highs and higher lows, a classic pattern of a strong uptrend. Notably, the trading volume during upward price movements has been substantial, reinforcing the strength of the rally. In recent sessions, CARTRADE is getting stabilized and moving towards its swing high target of ₹ 1900, indicating consolidation and a potential setup for another breakout. 2. CreditAccess Grameen Ltd - Bagadia recommends buying CreditAccess Grameen at around ₹ 1162.9 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 1125 for a target price of ₹ 1250 CREDITACC, is currently trading at 1162.9, exhibits a strong uptrend and bullish breakout on the daily chart, supported by its consistent position above key exponential moving averages (EMAs). Recent price action indicates a consolidation phase following a notable rally, with the stock maintaining levels near the 20-Day EMA. The reclaim of the 20-day EMA is especially noteworthy, as it often signifies a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. This technical alignment suggests the potential beginning of a medium- to long-term uptrend. If this trend continues, CREDITACC could reach a short-term target of 1250. 3. NHPC Ltd- Dongre recommends buying NHPC at around ₹ 85-86 keeping stoploss at ₹ 83 for a target price of ₹ 91 1In the short-term trend outlook, NHPC is displaying a strong bullish setup, making it a compelling buy candidate. On the daily chart, the stock has formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern—a classic signal indicating a potential reversal following recent corrective action. The stock is currently holding key support near ₹ 84 and offers a favorable entry opportunity in the ₹ 85–86 range. Technical indicators suggest momentum may build toward the ₹ 91 target, with a prudent stop-loss to be maintained at ₹ 83 to manage downside risk. 4. Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd- Dongre recommends buying Chambal Fertilisers at ₹ 695 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 685 for a target price of ₹ 715 CHAMBLFERT has shown encouraging signs of a trend reversal on its daily chart, forming a Bullish Engulfing pattern after a period of decline. The stock is respecting its 20-day EMA, indicating renewed buying interest at lower levels. With strong support around ₹ 685, CHAMBLFERT offers a short-term buying opportunity at ₹ 695, aiming for a target of ₹ 715 while keeping a stop-loss at ₹ 685. 5. State Bank of India- Dongre recommends buying SBI at ₹ 800 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 785 for a target price of ₹ 830. SBI is showing a bullish reversal candlestick pattern near its crucial support zone, signaling that recent selling may be losing steam. The stock is trading well above its 50-day EMA, further supporting the positive bias. With a current level around ₹ 800, SBI presents a buying opportunity for a potential move toward ₹ 830, with a protective stop-loss recommended at ₹ 785 to limit downside exposure. 6. VA Tech Wabag Ltd- Koothupalakkal recommends buying VA TECH WABAG at around ₹ 1310 for a Target price of ₹ 1370 keeping Stop loss: 1280 The stock after witnessing a short period of profit booking has shown signs of taking support near 1260 zone and indicated a decent pullback to improve the bias anticipating for further rise in the coming sessions. The RSI has corrected to some extent and currently indicating a positive revival has scope for further upward move, with much upside potential visible from current rate. With the chart technically maintained strong, we suggest to buy the stock for an upside target of 1370 level keeping the stop loss of 1280 level. 7. Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd- Koothupalakkal recommends buying Sumitomo Chemical at around ₹ 524 for a Target price of ₹ 550 keeping Stop loss at ₹ 512 The stock has indicated a higher bottom formation pattern on the daily chart taking support near the 500 zone and currently after a decent pullback is on the verge of moving past the important 200 period MA and 50EMA at 525 level to improve the bias anticipating for further rise. The RSI has indicated a positive trend reversal to signal a buy and with upside potential visible, we expect the stock to carry on with the positive move further ahead. With the chart technically looking good, we suggest to buy the stock for an upside target of 550 level keeping the stop loss of 512 level. 8. NCC Ltd- Koothupalakkal recommends buying NCC at around ₹ 217.40 for a Target price of ₹ 230 keeping Stop loss at ₹ 212 The stock has maintained a positive bias for quite some time with the 50-EMA at 213 level as the good support zone and currently with a positive candle formation with significant volume participation has once again improved the bias, expecting for further rise in the coming sessions. The RSI is well-positioned, indicating strength, and can continue with the positive upward move for further gains. With the chart looking good, we suggest buying the stock for an upside target of 230, keeping the stop loss at the 212 level. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. First Published: 5 May 2025, 06:24 AM IST
