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Economist
a day ago
- Politics
- Economist
Russian sabotage attacks surged across Europe in 2024
IN AN INTERVIEW on July 21st, Martina Rosenberg, the head of Germany's military counter-intelligence service, warned of a 'sharp increase in cases of espionage and hybrid measures', a reference to sabotage. That came just three days after Britain imposed sanctions on 18 Russian intelligence officers for what it described as 'irresponsible, destructive and destabilising hybrid activity' around the world. A new report by Charlie Edwards and Nate Seidenstein of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a European think-tank, reveals how Russia's campaign of sabotage and subversion in Europe has escalated sharply since 2022—and why it might have fallen in recent months.
DW
14-07-2025
- Business
- DW
Can debt-laden NATO members spend billions more on defense? – DW – 07/14/2025
NATO members recently agreed to increase defense spending to 5% by 2035 — a "quantum leap," according to the military alliance's chief, Mark Rutte. But can its indebted members really afford the hike? The NATO summit at the end of June left Donald Trump happy. The US President called it "tremendous" that the military alliance's 32 members had agreed to ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. He has been pressuring them to do so for years. However, he reserved his customary ire for one member: Spain. After vocal opposition from the country's prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish government found a way out of the 5% commitment by claiming it could meet its defense obligations by spending much less. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Trump said the decision was "very terrible" and that they would be made "pay twice as much." Sanchez argued the 5% target — which is broken down into 3.5% on defence and 1.5% on defense-related infrastructure — was unreasonable and that diverting public spending in such a way could damage the economy. In the end, Spain secured an agreement with NATO that granted it an effective opt-out. That has raised questions about the extent to which many member nations will ultimately be able to afford the spending pledges they have made. "The choice to ringfence and prioritize defense amidst public spending cuts is politically challenging and will need strong public messaging to be accepted by the electorate and indeed across governments in office," Fenella McGerty, senior fellow for defense economics at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told DW. She points out that when Spain previously signaled a hike in defense spending in April, Sanchez was keen to emphasize that it would not add to the country's debt pile or impact social spending. Ilke Toygür, director of the global policy center at Madrid's IE University, thinks Spain's position was partly about having an "open conversation" on the fact that prioritizing defense spending would impact other key areas of national budgets and could lead to a damaging backlash. "If there is no understanding about the importance of the fight against climate change or on other social issues, for example, housing or support for health or education, then this [defense spending hike] will create the contrary effect that European leaders are trying to get," she told DW. At the end of the day, what Europe really needs is a "sustained defense investment that will make the continent more secure," she said, adding that a "sustained public backlash could create the opposite effect." NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has hailed the 5% increase as a "quantum leap" and said it "laid the foundations for a stronger, fairer and more lethal NATO." McGerty believes the 2035 pledge is a "significant commitment," particularly if European members manage to "increase core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP" — up from the current average of 2%. The NATO agreement specifies that 3.5% of GDP should "resource core defense requirements" and meet so-called NATO capability targets — a list of specific defense-preparedness goals, from air defense to land maneuvers. According to NATO, the extra 1.5% of spending will, among other things, "protect critical infrastructure, defend networks, ensure civil preparedness and resilience, innovate, and strengthen the defense industrial base." McGerty acknowledges that the pledge to bolster spending comes "at a time of considerable fiscal pressures" for member states. However, she thinks the 1.5% infrastructure element has a "broad definition" to give countries flexibility. "Many countries are likely already spending this much on such funding areas," said McGerty. Yet, there are still substantial doubts over the capacity of some member states to hit the agreed levels. According to NATO's most recent defense spending figures from 2024, all but eight of the alliance's members were hitting the existing 2% target. A few have caught up in the meantime. However, those furthest behind in terms of military spending — Spain, Belgium, Canada, Italy and Portugal — also have the problem of having high government debt of close to or even over 100% of their gross domestic product (GDP). Greece is an outlier in that it has the highest debt level of all, but it already spends more than 3% on its defense. Ilke Toygür is sceptical if some northern European countries, who during the 2008/2009 financial crisis decried the debt levels of some southern European countries, understand the scale of the challenge for economies ramping up defense spending while managing high existing debt levels. "What will happen if these countries use the next 5-10 years to increase their defense spending. Does it mean more private sector investment is needed?" she wonders. In her opinion, a "fairer assessment of the debt question and the overall impact on the European economy at large" is needed. McGerty argues that countries with strong fiscal positions, such as Germany, can borrow to meet the targets but those with longer-term debt issues will be reluctant to add to that debt. If those still lagging behind the 2% mark are to have "any hope of meeting the 5% target without borrowing more," she noted, they would have to make the kind of dramatic choices abhorred by Sanchez, or hope the private sector comes to the rescue. Increases in military spending would have to be funded through other means, McGerty believes, including, for example, "higher taxation, cuts to other areas of public spending or via other creative funding options including special funds administered by central banks or treasuries, multilateral lending instruments, or mobilizing private investment." While leaders like Sanchez and others are concerned about borrowing and potential cuts, experts say the writing has been on the wall for a while. McGerty noted that NATO chief Rutte stated already in December 2024 that increases in European defense spending would necessarily impact spending on pensions, education and health care, Yet ramping up military spending brings its own financial risks. As Europe rushes to build up its own arms sector, rising inflation in the defense industry, supply chain delays, and labor issues mean ever more money is being needed to meet the same ends. So, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), warned in March that higher defense spending itself could contribute to inflation — yet another reminder that for many countries, the rush to make Europe safer, will come at a high price.
CNBC
10-07-2025
- Politics
- CNBC
Analyst on Red Sea attacks: Houthis are in it 'for the long haul'
Wolf-Christian Paes, Senior Fellow for Armed Conflict at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), discusses the shipping attacks in the Red Sea by the Houthis. He adds that he is not "overly optimistic" about a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.
09-07-2025
- Politics
Yemen's Houthi rebels attack another ship in the Red Sea, killing 3
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- An attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels on a Liberian-flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea killed three mariners and wounded two others, a European Union naval force said Tuesday, highlighting the danger of the group's renewed campaign targeting a key maritime route for international trade. The attack on the Greek-owned Eternity C follows the Iranian-backed Houthis attacking another vessel, the bulk carrier Magic Seas, on Sunday in the Red Sea that they said subsequently sank. The assaults are the first Houthi attacks on shipping since late 2024 on the waterway that had begun to see more ships pass through in recent weeks. 'We haven't seen any real attacks on merchant shipping since December last year," said Wolf-Christian Paes, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "And they're back with a bang.' The bulk carrier had been heading north toward the Suez Canal when it came under fire by men in small boats and by bomb-carrying drones Monday night. The security guards on board fired their weapons. The EU Operation Aspides and the private security firm Ambrey both reported those details. While the Houthis haven't claimed the attack — they can take days to claim one — Yemen's exiled government and the EU force blamed the rebels, as did the U.S. State Department. 'These attacks demonstrate the ongoing threat that Iran-backed Houthi rebels pose to freedom of navigation and to regional economic and maritime security,' State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said. 'The United States has been clear: We will continue to take necessary action to protect freedom of navigation and commercial shipping from Houthi terrorist attacks.' The EU force offered the casualty information, saying one of the wounded crew lost his leg. The crew remains stuck on board the vessel, which is now drifting in the Red Sea. The Houthis on Sunday attacked the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas with drones, missiles, rocket-propelled grenades and small arms fire, forcing its crew of 22 to abandon the vessel loaded with fertilizer and steel billets for Turkey. On Tuesday night, the Houthis released a propaganda video that included their forces hailing the vessel in English over VHF radio, threatening it. The footage included masked Houthi gunmen later boarding the empty vessel, likely after the crew escaped. The gunmen stormed the ship's bridge, running over broken glass. They then appeared in drone footage chanting the Houthis' slogan: 'God is the greatest; death to America; death to Israel; curse the Jews; victory to Islam.' Finally, explosives likely planted on the vessel exploded, sinking it. The Houthis released a similar video after their attack on the tanker Sounion in August 2024. The attack on the Magic Seas drew international criticism. 'It is the first such attack against a commercial vessel in 2025, a serious escalation endangering maritime security in a vital waterway for the region and the world,' the EU warned. 'These attacks directly threaten regional peace and stability, global commerce and freedom of navigation as a global public good. They can negatively impact the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen.' The United Nations condemned the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and called on the rebels to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding an immediate halt to all attacks. 'We continue to be very worried and concerned about the escalation that we're seeing,' U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. The United Arab Emirates later said an Abu Dhabi Ports vessel rescued the 22 sailors aboard the Magic Seas. The Philippines said 17 Filipinos were on the Magic Seas and another 21 on the Eternity C. The two attacks, and a round of Israeli airstrikes early Monday targeting the rebels, raised fears of a renewed Houthi campaign against shipping that could again draw in U.S. and Western forces, particularly after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration targeted the rebels in a major airstrike campaign. The attacks come at a sensitive moment in the Middle East, as a possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war hangs in the balance, and as Iran weighs whether to restart negotiations over its nuclear program following U.S. airstrikes targeting its most sensitive atomic sites during the Israel-Iran war in June. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington meeting Trump as Gaza ceasefire discussions continue. The Houthis apparently targeted the two vessels over their companies running routes to Israel. 'If I were to venture, I guess it has to do with Netanyahu being in Washington and with the fact that, of, course, Iran and its network of allies has been taking a bit of a beating in the last couple of months,' Paes said. The Houthis have been launching missile and drone attacks against commercial and military ships in the region in what the group's leadership has described as an effort to end Israel's offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two and killing four sailors. Their campaign has greatly reduced the flow of trade through the Red Sea corridor, which typically sees $1 trillion of goods move through it annually. The last Houthi attack, targeting U.S. warships escorting commercial ships, happened in early December. A ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war began in January and held until March. The U.S. then launched a broad assault against the rebels that ended weeks later when Trump said the rebels pledged to stop attacking ships. Since then, the Houthis have continued occasional missile attacks targeting Israel. Shipping through the Red Sea, while still lower than normal, had increased in recent weeks. 'The Houthi attack ... tarnishes the U.S. claims that Operation Rough Rider had brought calm to the Red Sea and paved the way for a return to prior levels of commercial traffic through the waterway," the New York-based Soufan Center think tank said Tuesday. However, it added that 'the U.S. seems more likely to stand down unless" the latest "evolves into a broader and sustained Houthi campaign.'
The Hindu
09-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Yemen's Houthi rebels attack another ship in the Red Sea, killing 3
An attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels on a Liberian-flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea killed three mariners and wounded two others, a European Union naval force said on Tuesday (July 8, 2025), highlighting the danger of the group's renewed campaign targeting a key maritime route for international trade. The attack on the Greek-owned Eternity C follows the Iranian-backed Houthis attacking another vessel, the bulk carrier Magic Seas, on Sunday (July 6, 2025) in the Red Sea that they said subsequently sank. The assaults are the first Houthi attacks on shipping since late 2024 on the waterway that had begun to see more ships pass through in recent weeks. 'We haven't seen any real attacks on merchant shipping since December last year," said Wolf-Christian Paes, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "And they're back with a bang.' The bulk carrier had been heading north toward the Suez Canal when it came under fire by men in small boats and by bomb-carrying drones Monday (July 7, 2025) night. The security guards on board fired their weapons. The EU Operation Aspides and the private security firm Ambrey both reported those details. While the Houthis haven't claimed the attack — they can take days to claim one — Yemen's exiled government and the EU force blamed the rebels, as did the U.S. Embassy in Yemen. 'The Houthis are once again showing blatant disregard for human life, undermining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea,' said the embassy, which has operated out of Saudi Arabia for nearly a decade due to the civil war in Yemen. 'The intentional murder of innocent mariners shows us all the Houthis' true colors and will only further the Houthis' isolation,' it added. The EU force offered the casualty information, saying one of the wounded crew lost his leg. The crew remains stuck on board the vessel, which is now drifting in the Red Sea. The Houthis on Sunday attacked the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas with drones, missiles, rocket-propelled grenades and small arms fire, forcing its crew of 22 to abandon the vessel loaded with fertilizer and steel billets for Turkey. On Tuesday night, the Houthis released a propaganda video that included their forces hailing the vessel in English over VHF radio, threatening it. The footage included masked Houthi gunmen later boarding the empty vessel, likely after the crew escaped. The gunmen stormed the ship's bridge, running over broken glass. They then appeared in drone footage chanting the Houthis' slogan: 'God is the greatest; death to America; death to Israel; curse the Jews; victory to Islam.' Finally, explosives likely planted on the vessel exploded, sinking it. The Houthis released a similar video after their attack on the tanker Sounion in August 2024. The attack on the Magic Seas drew international criticism. 'It is the first such attack against a commercial vessel in 2025, a serious escalation endangering maritime security in a vital waterway for the region and the world,' the EU warned. 'These attacks directly threaten regional peace and stability, global commerce and freedom of navigation as a global public good. They can negatively impact the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen.' The United Nations condemned the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and called on the rebels to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding an immediate halt to all attacks. 'We continue to be very worried and concerned about the escalation that we're seeing,' U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. The United Arab Emirates later said an Abu Dhabi Ports vessel rescued the 22 sailors aboard the Magic Seas. The Philippines said 17 Filipinos were on the Magic Seas and another 21 on the Eternity C. The two attacks, and a round of Israeli airstrikes early Monday targeting the rebels, raised fears of a renewed Houthi campaign against shipping that could again draw in U.S. and Western forces, particularly after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration targeted the rebels in a major airstrike campaign. The attacks come at a sensitive moment in the Middle East, as a possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war hangs in the balance, and as Iran weighs whether to restart negotiations over its nuclear program following U.S. airstrikes targeting its most sensitive atomic sites during the Israel-Iran war in June. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington meeting Mr. Trump as Gaza ceasefire discussions continue. The Houthis apparently targeted the two vessels over their companies running routes to Israel. 'If I were to venture, I guess it has to do with Netanyahu being in Washington and with the fact that, of, course, Iran and its network of allies has been taking a bit of a beating in the last couple of months,' Mr. Paes said. The Houthis have been launching missile and drone attacks against commercial and military ships in the region in what the group's leadership has described as an effort to end Israel's offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two and killing four sailors. Their campaign has greatly reduced the flow of trade through the Red Sea corridor, which typically sees $1 trillion of goods move through it annually. The last Houthi attack, targeting U.S. warships escorting commercial ships, happened in early December. A ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war began in January and held until March. The U.S. then launched a broad assault against the rebels that ended weeks later when Trump said the rebels pledged to stop attacking ships. Since then, the Houthis have continued occasional missile attacks targeting Israel. Shipping through the Red Sea, while still lower than normal, had increased in recent weeks. 'The Houthi attack ... tarnishes the U.S. claims that Operation Rough Rider had brought calm to the Red Sea and paved the way for a return to prior levels of commercial traffic through the waterway," the New York-based Soufan Center think tank said Tuesday. However, it added that 'the U.S. seems more likely to stand down unless" the latest "evolves into a broader and sustained Houthi campaign.'
