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The Guardian
04-07-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Europe is scrambling to form a united front and regain relevance in the Iran crisis
Exposed as divided and marginalised during the Iran crisis, European nations are scrambling to retrieve a place at the Middle East negotiating table, fearing an impulsive Donald Trump has diminishing interest in stabilising Iran or the wider region now he believes he has achieved his key objective of wiping out Tehran's nuclear programme. On Tuesday the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, was the latest senior European figure to phone the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, offering to be a facilitator and urging Tehran not to leave the crisis in a dangerous limbo by keeping UN weapons inspectors out of Iran. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has even broken a three-year silence to speak to Vladimir Putin about the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, including how a deal could be struck between Iran and the US on a restricted civil nuclear programme. Macron has been involved in Iranian diplomacy for a decade and came close to engineering a rapprochement between Trump and the then Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, at the UN general assembly in 2018. But Iran, faced with what it regards as craven European support for Israeli and American airstrikes that killed more than 930 people and injured as many as 5,000, is not placing much faith in the continent's ability to influence the White House. For Europe, this signals a slow slide into irrelevance. The three major European powers known as the E3 – France, Germany and the UK – were once key fixtures in Iran's diplomacy and played a central role in brokering the Iran nuclear deal, which they signed alongside the EU, the US, China, Russia and Iran in 2015. Europe had little input in the US's recent negotiating strategy with Iran, led by Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and was given just over an hour's official warning before the Israeli and US attacks. The one meeting that the E3 foreign minsters held during the crisis with Iranian diplomats in Geneva on 20 June proved a failure and was followed by the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. France claimed it helped Israel repel Iranian drones. Trump crowed afterwards that 'Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one.' From the Iranian perspective, Europe has long been a disappointing negotiating partner, repeatedly failing to show any independence from the US. When Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal in 2018, the E3 condemned the move in a joint statement issued by its then-leaders, Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Macron. But it did nothing effective to pursue an independent strategy to lift European sanctions on Iran as it had promised. The fear that European firms trading with Iran would be put under US sanctions was too great. The view from Tehran, it was felt, was that Europe's timidity left it with no choice but to follow the policy of nuclear brinkmanship, including gradually increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium. At the start of Trump's second term, the E3 plus Kallas tried again to insert themselves into the process by holding three low-key meetings with Iranian negotiators. But Araghchi was always angling to speak to Washington, telling the Guardian of his discussions with the Europeans: 'Perhaps we are talking to the wrong people.' After Trump indicated he was willing to speak to Iran bilaterally and showed some flexibility about Tehran's right to enrich uranium, Iran cast Europe aside. Iran believes Europe played a role either through naivety or complicity in opening the door for the Israeli attack by tabling a motion of censure at the board of the UN nuclear inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such motions have been passed before at the IAEA and usually led to Iran retaliating by increasing its stocks of enriched uranium. But the 12 June motion was different – for the first time in 20 years the board found Iran in breach of its obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Europe had to take that step to use its right as a signatory to the 2015 deal to reimpose sanctions on Iran before expiry of the deal on 15 October. Because of the way the deal was negotiated, neither Russia nor China can veto Europe reimposing sanctions. America is no longer party to the deal so this power to reintroduce UN sanctions is Europe's diplomatic re-entry point into the Iranian file. European diplomats insist that the IAEA censure motion was necessary, and that they had no option owing to Iran's mounting stocks of highly enriched uranium that had no possible purpose in a civilian nuclear programme. Europe also still hoped the talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Oman, would bear fruit, and had not foreseen the US giving Israel the green light to attack. Since the Israeli strikes, European unity has frayed further. Britain has largely opted for opacity, but it was obvious from what ministers did not say that the government's legal advice was that the Israeli attack could not be justified as an act of self-defence under the UN charter. France openly asserted that the attack was unlawful. By contrast, Germany endorsed all that Israel has done. At the G7 summit in mid-June, the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said: 'This is the dirty work that Israel is doing, for all of us.' Germany's foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, told parliament that 'Israel has the right to defend itself and protect its people. Let me say clearly that, if Israel and the US have now managed to set back the Iranian nuclear programme, it will make Israel and its neighbourhood more secure.' Asked by the newspaper Die Zeit if he believed Israel's actions were lawful, he said Germany did not have the same quality intelligence sources as the US and Israel, but he had to trust their belief that Iran was close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. 'They told us that, from their perspective, this is necessary – and we must accept that.' Such remarks have left Iranian diplomats spitting about European double standards over the sanctity of international law. By contrast, Enrique Mora, the EU's point person on Iran from 2015 to early 2025, has written a scathing piece in which he says Israel has killed nuclear diplomacy and Iran's nuclear knowledge cannot be destroyed. He wrote: 'If Iran now chooses the militarisation of its nuclear capabilities, if it now decides to move toward a bomb, it will do so following a clear strategic logic: no one bombs the capital of a nuclear-armed country. June 21, 2025, may go down in history not as the day the Iranian nuclear programme was destroyed, but as the day a nuclear Iran was irreversibly born.' There are different strategies Europe can pursue. It can, like Germany, show Iran there is no daylight between the E3 and Israel and assert that Iran can only have a civil nuclear programme that excludes domestic enrichment of uranium. It can press ahead with the reimposition of sanctions and hope that Iran buckles. Alternatively, it can champion a compromise that Tehran can wear. In a recent statement, the European Council on Foreign Relations said 'maximalist demands on Iran – including negotiating over missiles now viewed by Tehran as its main deterrence umbrella – will likely push the country to use every means still available to reach nuclear breakout. A more viable endgame would involve a return of wide-scale inspections by international monitors and an immediate, substantial roll-back of Iranian uranium enrichment. The goal should be Iran pursuing this enrichment through a regional consortium backed by the United States.' That is broadly closer to the French position. Europe will never hold sway like Israel or the US, but it has one last chance to help create something durable, and prevent the Iranian crisis becoming a nuclear proliferation crisis for the whole region.
The Guardian
04-07-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Europe is scrambling to form a united front and regain relevance in the Iran crisis
Exposed as divided and marginalised during the Iran crisis, European nations are scrambling to retrieve a place at the Middle East negotiating table, fearing an impulsive Donald Trump has diminishing interest in stabilising Iran or the wider region now that he believes he has achieved his key objective of wiping out Tehran's nuclear programme. On Tuesday the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, was the latest senior European figure to phone the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, offering to be a facilitator and urging Tehran not to leave the crisis in a dangerous limbo by keeping UN weapons inspectors out of Iran. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has even broken a three-year silence to speak to Vladimir Putin about the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, including how a deal could be struck between Iran and the US on a restricted civil nuclear programme. Macron has been involved in Iranian diplomacy for a decade and came close to engineering a rapprochement between Trump and the then Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, at the UN general assembly in 2018. But faced with what Iran regards as craven European support for Israeli and American airstrikes that have left more than 930 people killed and as many as 5,000 injured, Tehran is not placing much faith in the continent's ability to influence the White House. For Europe, this signals a slow slide into irrelevance. The three major European powers known as the E3 – France, Germany and the UK – were once key fixtures in Iran's diplomacy and played a central role in brokering the Iran nuclear deal which they signed alongside the EU, the US, China, Russia and Iran in 2015. Europe had little input in the US's recent negotiating strategy with Iran led by Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and was given just over an hour's official warning before the Israeli and US attacks. The one meeting that the E3 foreign minsters held during the crisis with Iranian diplomats in Geneva on 20 June proved a failure and was followed by the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. France claimed to have helped Israel repel Iranian drones. Trump crowed afterwards that 'Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one.' From the Iranian perspective, Europe has long been a disappointing negotiating partner, repeatedly failing to show any independence from the US. When Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal in 2018, the E3 condemned the move in a joint statement issued by their then-leaders, Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Macron. But they did nothing effective to pursue an independent strategy to lift European sanctions on Iran as they had promised. The fear that European firms trading with Iran would be sanctioned by the US was too great. The view from Tehran, it was felt, was that Europe's timidity left it with no choice but to follow the policy of nuclear brinkmanship, including gradually increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium. At the start of Trump's second term, the E3 plus Kallas tried again to insert themselves into the process by holding three low-key meetings with Iranian negotiators. But Araghchi was always angling to speak to Washington, telling the Guardian of his discussions with the Europeans: 'Perhaps we are talking to the wrong people.' After Trump signalled he was willing to speak to Iran bilaterally and showed some flexibility about Tehran's right to enrich uranium, Iran cast Europe aside. Iran believes Europe played a role either through naivety or complicity in opening the door for the Israeli attack by tabling a motion of censure at the board of the UN nuclear inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such motions have been passed before at the IAEA and usually led to Iran retaliating by increasing its stocks of enriched uranium. But the 12 June motion was different – for the first time in 20 years the board found Iran in breach of its obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Europe had to take this step if it is to use its right as a signatory to the 2015 deal to reimpose sanctions on Iran before the deal expires on 15 October. Due to the way the deal was negotiated, neither Russia nor China can veto Europe reimposing sanctions. America is no longer party to the deal so this power to reintroduce UN sanctions is Europe's diplomatic re-entry point into the Iranian file. European diplomats insist that the IAEA censure motion was necessary, that they had no option due to Iran's mounting stocks of highly enriched uranium that had no possible purpose in a civilian nuclear programme. Europe also still hoped the talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Oman, would bear fruit, and had not foreseen the US giving the green light for Israel to attack. Since the Israeli strikes, European unity has frayed further. Britain has largely opted for opacity, but it was clear from what ministers did not say that the government's legal advice was that the Israeli attack could not be justified as an act of self-defence under the UN charter. France openly asserted that the attack was unlawful. By contrast, Germany endorsed all that Israel has done. At the G7 summit in mid-June, the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said: 'This is the dirty work that Israel is doing, for all of us.' Germany's foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, told parliament that 'Israel has the right to defend itself and protect its people. Let me say clearly that, if Israel and the US have now managed to set back the Iranian nuclear programme, it will make Israel and its neighbourhood more secure.' Asked by the newspaper Die Zeit if he believed Israel's actions were lawful, he said Germany did not have the same quality intelligence sources as the US and Israel, but he had to trust their belief that Iran was close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. 'They told us that, from their perspective, this is necessary – and we must accept that.' Such remarks have left Iranian diplomats spitting about European double standards over the sanctity of international law. By contrast, Enrique Mora, the EU's point person on Iran from 2015 to early 2025, has written a scathing piece in which he says Israel has killed nuclear diplomacy and Iran's nuclear knowledge cannot be destroyed. He wrote: 'If Iran now chooses the militarization of its nuclear capabilities, if it now decides to move toward a bomb, it will do so following a clear strategic logic: no one bombs the capital of a nuclear-armed country. June 21, 2025, may go down in history not as the day the Iranian nuclear programme was destroyed, but as the day a nuclear Iran was irreversibly born.' There are different strategies Europe can pursue. It can, like Germany, show Iran there is no daylight between the E3 and Israel and assert that Iran can only have a civil nuclear programme that excludes domestic enrichment of uranium. It can press ahead with the reimposition of sanctions and hope that Iran buckles. The alternative is for Europe to champion a compromise that Tehran can wear. In a recent statement, the European Council on Foreign Relations said 'maximalist demands on Iran – including negotiating over missiles now viewed by Tehran as its main deterrence umbrella – will likely push the country to use every means still available to reach nuclear breakout. A more viable endgame would involve a return of wide scale inspections by international monitors and an immediate, substantial roll-back of Iranian uranium enrichment. The goal should be Iran pursuing this enrichment through a regional consortium backed by the United States.' That is broadly closer to the French position. Europe will never hold sway like Israel or the US, but it has one last chance to help create something durable, and prevent the Iranian crisis becoming a nuclear proliferation crisis for the whole region.
The Guardian
03-07-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Macron and Putin discuss Iran in first call in three years
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for the first time in three years on Tuesday in an attempt to de-escalate the Iran crisis, as Tehran confirmed it was ending all cooperation with the UN nuclear inspectorate, including banning its inspectors from visiting any of its nuclear sites. Macron had refused to speak to Putin since the Russian leader ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but Paris has become frustrated that the lack of communication with Moscow is not solving multiple crises, and leaving the diplomatic events exposed to the relationship between Putin and Donald Trump. In statements after the two-hour phone call, a French spokesperson said Macron was left more positive about the possibility of Russia pressing Iran to restore cooperation with the nuclear inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The French indicated a willingness to discuss the Iranian red line that it must have a right to enrich uranium domestically. One reason given by Iran for ending cooperation with the IAEA is the failure of the agency's leadership to condemn the Israeli attacks on its nuclear sites as a flagrant violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The German foreign ministry said Iran's decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA sent a 'disastrous signal'. 'For a diplomatic solution it is essential for Iran to work with the IAEA,' German officials said. Berlin said it had been informed of the Macron call to Putin in advance. In an interview with Le Monde, the French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, urged Iran to cooperate with the IAEA. But he also said Israel's strikes 'are not in accordance with international law. They have certainly set back Iran's nuclear programme. But only a negotiated framework will allow us to permanently avert the danger.' He added: 'We support the resumption of US negotiations with Iran, but it is essential that our security interests be taken into account. European territory is potentially within range of missiles designed in Iran.' Asked about Iran's right to domestic enrichment he said: 'What is essential is that Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon under any circumstances.' French officials did not rule out Iranian domestic enrichment, as allowed in the 2015 nuclear deal. The Kremlin readout of the Macron-Putin call said: 'It was noted that respecting Tehran's legitimate right to develop peaceful nuclear technology and continue to fulfil its obligations under the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, which includes cooperating with the IAEA, was crucial.' It went on: 'The two leaders spoke in favour of settling the crisis around Iran's nuclear programme and any other differences arising in the Middle East exclusively via political and diplomatic means. They agreed to maintain contact in order to coordinate their stances if necessary.' Iran has been steadily moving towards freezing out the IAEA, making it harder for any independent assessment to be made of the scale of the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear sites by the US and Israel strikes. On 25 June, the day after the ceasefire that ended 12 days of war, the Iranian parliament overwhelmingly voted for a bill suspending cooperation between Iran and UN agency. The law was then approved by the guardian council, the body responsible for reviewing legislation in Iran, before being ratified by the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian. State media confirmed on Wednesday that the legislation had now taken effect. It is thought a small number of IAEA inspectors are still in the country. Asked about efforts to revive the postponed UN special conference on the two-state solution, Barrot said France was discussing a possible date as soon as possible with the conference co-chair Saudi Arabia. He said: 'There is an emergency. An emergency in Gaza, for the hostages and the Palestinian population. It is also urgent to restore a political horizon that alone will allow us to emerge from the permanent state of war and offer both peoples a response to their legitimate aspirations. 'The solution is more than ever undermined by colonisation in the West Bank, by the destruction in Gaza, and by a form of resignation on the part of the international community. The danger would be that this political solution comes too late.' Analysis by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz claimed Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles at Israel, most of which landed in open areas, throughout the recent 12-day conflict. Israel and the US intercepted the remainder with about 200 missile interceptors at an estimated cost of 5bn shekels (£1.1bn), according to an analysis of IDF data and open-source information. Data compiled by Haaretz from IDF reports over the course of the war shows Iran carried out 42 missile barrages, firing roughly 530 ballistic missiles at Israel. The IDF reported that during the 12-day conflict 36 Iranian missiles struck built-up areas, while air defence systems achieved an interception rate of 86%.
The Guardian
02-07-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Macron and Putin discuss Iran in first call in three years
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for the first time in three years on Tuesday in an attempt to de-escalate the Iran crisis, as Tehran confirmed it was ending all cooperation with the UN nuclear inspectorate, including banning its inspectors from visiting any of its nuclear sites. Macron had refused to speak to Putin since the Russian leader ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but Paris has become frustrated that the lack of communication with Moscow is not solving multiple crises, and leaving the diplomatic events exposed to the relationship between Putin and Donald Trump. In statements after the two-hour phone call, a French spokesperson said Macron was left more positive about the possibility of Russia pressing Iran to restore cooperation with the nuclear inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The French indicated a willingness to discuss the Iranian red line that it must have a right to enrich uranium domestically. One reason given by Iran for ending cooperation with the IAEA is the failure of the agency's leadership to condemn the Israeli attacks on its nuclear sites as a flagrant violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The German foreign ministry said Iran's decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA sent a 'disastrous signal'. 'For a diplomatic solution it is essential for Iran to work with the IAEA,' German officials said. Germany added it had been informed of the Macron call to Putin in advance. In an interview with Le Monde, the French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, also urged Iran to cooperate with the IAEA. But he also said Israel's strikes 'are not in accordance with international law. They have certainly set back Iran's nuclear programme. But only a negotiated framework will allow us to permanently avert the danger.' He added: 'We support the resumption of US negotiations with Iran, but it is essential that our security interests be taken into account. European territory is potentially within range of missiles designed in Iran.' Asked about Iran's right to domestic enrichment he said: 'What is essential is that Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon under any circumstances.' French officials did not rule out Iranian domestic enrichment, as allowed in the 2015 nuclear deal. The Kremlin readout of the Macron-Putin call said: 'It was noted that respecting Tehran's legitimate right to develop peaceful nuclear technology and continue to fulfil its obligations under the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, which includes cooperating with the IAEA, was crucial. It added 'the two leaders spoke in favour of settling the crisis around Iran's nuclear programme and any other differences arising in the Middle East exclusively via political and diplomatic means. They agreed to maintain contact in order to coordinate their stances if necessary.' Iran has been steadily moving towards freezing out the IAEA, making it harder for any independent assessment to be made of the scale of the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear sites by the US and Israel strikes. On 25 June, the day after the ceasefire that ended 12 days of war, the Iranian parliament overwhelmingly voted for a bill suspending cooperation between Iran and UN agency. The law was then approved by the guardian council, the body responsible for reviewing legislation in Iran, before being ratified by the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian. It is thought there a small number of IAEA inspectors still in the country Asked about efforts to revive the postponed UN special conference on the two-state solution, Barrot said France was discussing a possible date as soon as possible with the conference co-chairs Saudi Arabia. He said: 'There is an emergency. An emergency in Gaza, for the hostages and the Palestinian population. It is also urgent to restore a political horizon that alone will allow us to emerge from the permanent state of war and offer both peoples a response to their legitimate aspirations. 'The solution is more than ever undermined by colonisation in the West Bank, by the destruction in Gaza, and by a form of resignation on the part of the international community. The danger would be that this political solution comes too late'. Analysis by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz claimed Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles at Israel, most of which landed in open areas, throughout the recent 12-day conflict. Israel and the United States intercepted the remainder with about 200 missile interceptors at an estimated cost of 5bn shekels (nearly $1.5bn or £1.1bn), according to an analysis of IDF data and open-source information. Data compiled by Haaretz from IDF reports over the course of the war shows that Iran carried out 42 missile barrages, firing roughly 530 ballistic missiles at Israel. The IDF reported that, over the 12-day conflict, 36 Iranian missiles struck built-up areas, while air defenfe systems achieved an interception rate of 86%.
Time of India
27-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
$20 Bn Wiped Out! Israel Counts Losses After War Against Iran, ‘BEGS' U.S. For Damages
Iran FM REJECTS Nuclear Talks, Warns Trump & Netanyahu | 'Not Lebanon…Won't Tolerate Ceasefire' Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has firmly denied that any agreement exists to resume nuclear talks with the United States. Araghchi emphasized that no promises have been made, and there is no subject under formal negotiation. He criticized the idea of returning to talks without a clear framework, blaming both the U.S. and Israel for previously dismantling diplomatic channels. Araghchi stated that Iran's diplomacy is undergoing a strategic shift in response to the realities of war. Meanwhile, he issued a sharp warning to Israel, declaring that Iran's response will mirror Tel Aviv's actions. He made it clear that the ceasefire will only hold if Israel exercises restraint, and any renewed aggression will be met with immediate retaliation. Iran, he said, is not Lebanon and will not step back out of fear. Araghchi reinforced that Tehran does not seek to prolong the war—but any one-sided truce will be rejected.#araghchi #iranfm #IranNuclear #IranNPT #NuclearThreat #IranSanctions #IranCrisis #NuclearDiplomacy 2.0K views | 1 hour ago
