Latest news with #IranIsraelCrisis
Yahoo
27-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fragile Middle East Truce Heightens Geo-political, Macroeconomic Risks, Including for Europe
Israel and Iran have agreed on a tenuous truce this week following the recent hostilities. Nevertheless, the risk of further regional escalation – and the possible effect on oil markets and international trade – remains given the lack of international consequences for Israel and the United States from their attacks on Iran and uncertainty over what impact the joint military action has had in curtailing Iran's nuclear activities. In addition, the shift by the US away from a traditional role as the post-war guarantor of international norms raises the risks of broader conflicts elsewhere. The issue is particularly acute for Europe considering the ongoing war in Ukraine where there are limited signs the Kremlin is interested in pursuing a full ceasefire or longer-lasting truce. In the longer run, the Iran-Israel crisis may raise the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and beyond. The crisis may furthermore accelerate increases in regional military expenditure just as NATO members themselves have agreed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP – more than double a former target of 2%. Such heightened geo-political risk is a core downside risk highlighted by Scope Ratings (Scope)'s latest global macro and credit outlook, not least for Europe. Growth in the region remains more moderate than that of the United States and China while increasing defence budgets risk creating extra fiscal strain for sovereigns already struggling to cut budget deficits and reverse increasing public debt. Germany's stagnant performance this year should drag euro-area growth to a less-than-expected 1.1%, 0.5pps below Scope Ratings' October-2024 forecasts, before a slight rebound in 2026 to 1.5%. By contrast, US growth remains comparatively resilient even though Scope has nevertheless lowered its projections to 1.8% for 2025 from a previous projection of 2.7%. China's economic growth is forecast at a better-than-anticipated 4.8% this year, supported by the ambitious government target for this year of 'around 5%' economic growth and the recent temporary easing of US-China trade tensions. Inflation remains another potential source of economic weakness, including for Europe, given Scope Ratings' consistent view that borrowing rates are likely to stay relatively higher for longer, given the higher structural price pressures than before the pandemic. Here, Europe's dependence on energy imports continues to be a vulnerability, not least if oil prices stay volatile amid the heightened and unresolved tensions within the Middle East region. This means continued risks for inflation and external-sector balances globally – especially for significant energy importers, which, inside the EU, include economies such as Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Belgium and Greece. As things stand, Brent futures (for August delivery) have dropped to under USD 70 a barrel at the time of writing, from the highs last week at nearly USD 79 a barrel. Oil is today below the levels when Israel began the attacks recently on 13 June. But the uncertainties within the region ensure the volatility in crude prices stays elevated. Longer-run risks for energy prices remain twofold. Firstly, Iranian crude exports, which have already been declining, could fall further, which would tighten oil markets. The much more significant but less probable scenario involves a closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global oil alongside Qatari exports of liquefied natural gas are transported by ship. That said, despite multiple conflicts involving Iran over the years, authorities have never closed the Strait partly because of the economy's reliance on sea-borne trade with China. As things stand, Scope projects euro-area inflation staying moderate at 2.1% in 2025 before 1.9% in 2026, but inflation risks remaining more significant for the United States, United Kingdom and Japan (Figure 1). Figure 1: Disinflation trend continues across many economies but meets road bumps in many others Headline inflation, with Scope forecasting, % year-over-year Regional instability also increases a risk of trade disruptions and the associated effects for consumer and business sentiment in the Middle East, Europe and beyond. Global growth is forecast to slow to 3.0% in 2025 (cut 0.4pps from Scope's October forecasts) from 3.3% in 2024 before continuing at a moderate 3.1% next year. Related material: Report: Scope's 2025 mid-year global economic outlook Slides: Scope Ratings' 2025 mid-year economic and credit outlook For a look at all of today's economic events, check out our economic calendar. Dennis Shen is the Chair of the Macro Economic Council and Lead Global Economist of Scope Group. The rating agency's Macroeconomic Council brings together the company's credit opinions from multiple issuer classes: sovereign and public sector, financial institutions, corporates, structured finance and project finance. This article was originally posted on FX Empire Bullish Big Money Buying Axon Big Money Lifts Disney 1,427% Since First Outlier Buy Core & Main Flashes Bullish Outlier Signals Veeva Sees Inflows after Earnings Beat Bulgaria Poised to Join the Euro: An Interview with Scope Ratings' Dennis Shen Strong Inflows Make Catalyst Stock an Outlier
Time of India
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Trump Excludes Gabbard, Hegseth From Secret Iran Strategy Group Amid Nuclear War Fears
President Donald Trump has reportedly removed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard from high-level discussions surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict. Sources suggest Gabbard's opposition to claims that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon contributed to her exclusion. Hegseth has also been sidelined as military generals take charge of operations in the Middle East. Trump now leans on a tight inner circle, including Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, to shape Iran policy. Despite denials from officials, Gabbard's absence from key meetings and her history of challenging US intelligence assessments point to a diminished role. The White House is expected to decide within two weeks whether to support Israel's bombing campaign against Iran. The situation reveals deep divisions in Washington as nuclear fears and war rhetoric intensify.#IranIsraelCrisis #TrumpWarRoom #TulsiGabbard #PeteHegseth #MiddleEastConflict #ClusterOfPower #WhiteHouseDrama #IranNuclearCrisis #USIsraelAlliance #NationalSecurity
Arab News
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Trump hosts Pakistan army chief for unprecedented lunch, confirms Iran discussed
ISLAMABAD: US President Donald Trump on Wednesday hosted Pakistan's army chief for lunch in an unprecedented White House meeting, after which he told reporters he was 'honored' to meet Field Marshal General Asim Munir and that the two had discussed the ongoing Iran-Israel crisis. This was the first time in many years that a Pakistani army chief was hosted by a sitting US president at the White House, highlighting Washington's renewed interest in maintaining influence in South Asia as regional tensions flare. After the schedule for the lunch was announced this week, Pakistani media widely speculated that Munir would press Trump not to enter Israel's war with Iran and to seek a ceasefire. A section of Pakistan's embassy in Washington represents Iran's interests in the United States as Tehran does not have diplomatic relations with the US. Munir's White House meeting during the ongoing Mideast conflict has also fueled speculation in Islamabad that Washington could push Pakistan to align more openly with the US position, which has historically been supportive of Israel. Such pressure could complicate Pakistan's delicate balancing act in the Middle East, where it maintains close ties with Iran and other Gulf partners and sympathizes with the Palestinian cause but seeks to avoid getting dragged into regional rivalries that could inflame tensions at home. 'Well, they [Pakistan] know Iran very well, better than most, and they're not happy about anything [Iran-Israel conflict],' Trump said in response to a question by a reporter after his meeting with Munir on whether Iran came up in the discussion. 'It's not that they're better with Israel. They [Pakistan] know them both actually, but they probably, maybe, know Iran better, but they [Pakistan] see what's going on. And he [Field Marshal General Asim Munir] agreed with me.' Trump did not specify what the Pakistani general had agreed with him on, and went on to talk about last month's military conflict between India and Pakistan that the US president has publicly claimed credit for ending with a ceasefire. Nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan engaged in their fiercest military conflict in decades between May 7-10, exchanging drones, missiles and artillery for nearly four days before Trump announced he had brokered a truce. 'The reason I had him [Munir] here, I wanted to thank him for not going into the war [with India], just, you know, ending the war,' Trump said, also giving credit to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 'So, I was honored to meet him [Munir] today.' Tensions between Israel and Iran have spiked sharply since last Friday when Israeli forces struck multiple targets including Iranian nuclear sites and senior officials. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israeli territory, raising fears of a wider Middle East war that could threaten global energy supplies and regional stability. Pakistan, which shares a long border with Iran and maintains historic ties with Tehran, has repeatedly called for de-escalation and a ceasefire in the region. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told Pakistan's Geo TV that Munir's White House visit would give the army chief a chance to share Pakistan's perspective on the conflict and push Washington to help prevent further escalation. Pakistan's military plays a key role in shaping the country's foreign policy, and Munir's high-profile White House invitation is being seen as part of Washington's broader effort to recalibrate ties with Islamabad, a vital but often difficult ally for the US in South Asia. Local media in Pakistan reported that Munir's visit had been arranged weeks in advance. Analysts say the rare top-level contact underscores how the US wants to maintain strategic leverage in a region shaped by the rivalries of three nuclear powers — China, India and Pakistan — and rising instability in the Middle East.
Daily Mail
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Mail
BREAKING NEWS How Donald Trump has ghosted Anthony Albanese AGAIN - just a day after the President cancelled meeting
Anthony Albanese has admitted that Donald Trump has failed to call him after the US President cancelled their meeting to deal with the Iran-Israel crisis. The Prime Minister's plan to meet Trump on the last day of the G7 Leaders summit in Canada 's Alberta province was scotched when the US Commander-in-Chief left the event early due to the escalating situation in the Middle East. Albanese was asked if Trump had rang him since the cancellation - a gesture he has afforded other world leaders - at a press conference on Wednesday morning. 'No, he hasn't. But I spoke with key advisors to the President,' Albanese responded. 'The President has been engaged... with the circumstances around Iran and Israel. It's perfectly understandable the decision that he made. 'That meant that the meetings that were scheduled - not just with myself, but with India, Ukraine, including President Zelensky, Mexico and other countries, didn't go ahead today. 'But we're all mature about that. We understand the circumstances.' However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she had a 'very good' phone call with Trump after their meeting was also cancelled. 'We agreed to work together to quickly reach an agreement on various issues of concern to us today,' Sheinbaum added in a statement on X. Albanese was asked about this discrepancy in treatment but he brushed it off. 'I'm not driven by issues like that,' he responded. 'I understand that there's important things happening...I'm mature about these things.' Albanese insisted that he would meet 'soon', leaving the door open to a possible meeting at the NATO summit next week. 'I'm considering discussions with a range of people over the last couple of days obviously including, I met with the NATO secretary general yesterday, he's well known to me,' Albanese said. He had said on Tuesday that Defence Minister Richard Marles would attend the summit in The Hague. As a consolation, Albanese was handed two 20-minute consolation meetings with senior US officials in Kananaskis on Tuesday local time. The PM and Australia's ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Direction of National Economic Council Kevin Hassett and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. 'I spoke with President Trump's senior economic team today at the G7 Summit about how we can strengthen our partnership,' Albanese said in a statement. 'Our free-flowing trade and investment has supported American and Australian workers, businesses, and investors - making both our countries more prosperous.' They discussed trade, tariffs, and Australia's critical minerals and rare earth minerals. But they reportedly did not discuss concerns about the AUKUS deal with the US and UK, which Trump has placed under a 30-day review. However, Albanese did discuss the submarine deal with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with both leaders vowing to take their commitment to the security pact to 'another level'. 'We've both taken it on ourselves to take it to another level when it comes to defence and security, to our work on AUKUS, but also on issues like energy and the global issues that matter,' Starmer said, according to The Australian.
Japan Times
15-06-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Putin tells Trump Russia is ready for next round of Ukraine talks
Russian President Vladimir Putin told his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, on Saturday that Moscow was ready to hold a fresh round of peace talks with Kyiv after June 22, once the sides complete exchanging prisoners and soldiers' bodies. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy meanwhile did not mention whether Ukraine would agree to the next round of talks, only saying that "the exchanges will be completed and the parties will discuss the next step." Putin and Trump held a call for the fifth time since the Republican took office and sought to reset relations with Moscow, in a stark pivot from the approach of his predecessor Joe Biden's administration. Trump's approach has stunned Washington's allies, raising doubts about the future of U.S. aid to Kyiv and leaving Europe scrambling to work out how it can fill any gap in supplies if Trump decides to pull U.S. military, financial and intelligence support. "Both leaders expressed satisfaction with their personal relations" during the call, in which they also discussed the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, the Kremlin said. It added that the presidents "communicate in a businesslike manner and seek solutions to pressing issues on the bilateral and international agenda, no matter how complex these issues may be." Trump posted on Truth Social to say Putin had called "to very nicely wish me a Happy Birthday" on the day he turned 79, but that "more importantly" the two discussed the Iran-Israel crisis. "He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end," Trump said, referring to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Zelenskyy urged the United States to "shift tone" in its dialogue with Russia, saying it was "too warm" and would not help to end the fighting. "Any signals of reduced aid, or of treating Ukraine and Russia as equals, are deeply unfair. Russia is the aggressor. They started this war. They do not want to end it," the Ukrainian president said on X. The recent escalation sparked fears Washington might relocate resources at its expense, to beef up the defense of its close ally Israel which unleashed a large-scale attack on Iran on Friday. "We would like to see aid to Ukraine not decrease because of this," he said. "Last time, this was a factor that slowed down aid to Ukraine." Earlier on Saturday, Ukraine and Russia swapped prisoners in the fourth such exchange last week, part of a large-scale plan to bring back 1,000 wounded prisoners from each side and return bodies of killed soldiers. The prisoner agreement was the only visible result of two recent rounds of talks in Istanbul. Photos published by Zelenskyy on Telegram showed men of various ages, mostly with shaved heads, wearing camouflage and draped in Ukrainian flags. Some were injured, others disembarked from buses and hugged those welcoming them, or were seen calling someone by phone, sometimes covering their faces or smiling. Moscow's Defense Ministry released its own video showing men in uniforms holding Russian flags, clapping and chanting "Glory to Russia," some raising their fists in the air. As part of the Istanbul agreements, Kyiv also said it had received another 1,200 unidentified bodies from Russia. It said Moscow had said they were those of "Ukrainian citizens, including military personnel." Ukraine did not say whether it returned any bodies to Russia. Russia has rejected calls to halt its three-year offensive. It has demanded Ukraine cede territory and renounce Western military support if it wants peace. Since Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, the assault has forced millions of people to flee their homes as towns and cities across eastern Ukraine have been flattened by heavy bombardments. Meanwhile, Russia intensified its advances along the front line, especially on the northeastern Ukrainian region of Sumy, where it seeks to establish a "buffer zone." By doing it, Moscow seeks to protect its bordering region of Kursk, previously partly occupied by Ukraine. Zelenskyy said Russia's advance on Sumy was stopped and that Kyiv's forces had managed to retake one village. He also denied Moscow's earlier claims that its troops entered the Dnipropetrovsk region. He said 53,000 Russian soldiers were involved in the Sumy operation.
