Latest news with #Iran–IraqWar
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Israel is not yet willing to touch Iran's most sensitive nerve
Live Events Why does the Kharg Terminal matter so much Targeting Kharg will be a high-stakes move If Israel hits this one key energy site in Iran, it can break the back of the Iranian economy, but so far it has kept off this target. Israel has already hit several Iranian energy sites such as the Shahran fuel and gasoline depot, which has at least 11 storage tanks, and Shahr Rey, one of the country's largest oil refineries. Israel has also struck the South Pars Gas Field, which is one of the world's largest and critical to Iran's energy production. However, the most sensitive energy site of Iran is the Kharg Island from where Iran exports most of its the Iran-Israel conflict in October last year there was talk of Israel planning to hit Kharg island, resulting in a number of oil tankers vacating the waters around the oil-loading terminal on Kharg of the loadings from Kharg Island last week took place from the site's eastern jetty, Homayoun Falakshai, head of crude oil analysis at tracking firm Kpler, had told Reuters. "NIOC may believe it is less risky than the other main jetty located on the western side, in open waters," Falakshai said, referring to Iran's state oil firm National Iranian Oil Co. Large oil tankers were approaching Kharg Island one at a time, leaving the second jetty on the western side of the island unused for several days, with 15-16 more Iranian tankers scattered across the wider Persian Gulf Island is buzzing with activity as Iran is trying to get as much oil as possible, ensuring revenues would continue, at least for a while, if shipments are disrupted. Many oil tankers are now anchoring far from Kharg Island, unlike in normal times, and are making only brief stops to load oil before quickly leaving the area, as per a Bloomberg report. Iran's exports surged after Israel launched its offensive. In the first five days of the campaign, Iran exported an average of 2.23 million barrels of oil per day, a 44% increase from previous levels. Were Kharg Island to be targeted this time, Iran would lose a key source of revenue but then have little reason not to strike back in Island is a continental island located off Iran's coast near Bushehr, close to the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz . It serves as Iran's principal offshore oil export terminal. Constructed in the 1950s and reconstructed after heavy damage during the Iran–Iraq War, the terminal is equipped with modern infrastructure capable of handling very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and ultra large crude carriers (ULCCs). The terminal includes multiple berths, capable of loading 8–9 supertankers simultaneously, and has a storage capacity of approximately 28 million oil from Iran's major production fields is transported to Kharg via an extensive pipeline network. The terminal handles over 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, making it the country's single most important oil infrastructure Kharg terminal is essential for Iran's economy. With international sanctions severely limiting Iran's access to global markets, oil exports remain one of the few major sources of hard currency for the country. The revenues from Kharg's operations fund significant portions of Iran's national budget and support its geopolitical ambitions. Its location near the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil chokepoint, gives Iran considerable strategic leverage. The ability to control or disrupt energy flows through this region makes Kharg not only an economic asset but also a geopolitical Iran's oil output is constrained by sanctions, a disruption at Kharg could have outsized effects on global oil markets. Any significant attack or closure of the terminal would raise concerns about the safety of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, driving up global energy October 2024, during heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, there was serious speculation that Israel might target Kharg. Iran's top oil officials made publicized visits to the island, and several tankers were observed vacating the area amid rising alerts. While tensions eased without a direct strike, the incident underscored how vulnerable and central Kharg is to Iran's strategic the current conflict, Israel has launched a series of strikes on Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, including attacks on the South Pars gas field. However, despite the strategic value of the Kharg terminal, Israel has notably refrained from targeting it. A direct attack on Kharg could provide Iran with a legitimate justification to block or restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage handles approximately one-fifth of the world's oil shipments. Closure or disruption here would have catastrophic implications for global energy markets, shipping and regional stability. A strike on Kharg would almost certainly lead to a sharp spike in global oil prices. This would impact not only Iran and its adversaries but also economies worldwide, especially those heavily reliant on energy a move could escalate the conflict dramatically, prompting Iran to retaliate by targeting oil infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal. The regionalization of the conflict would draw in more actors and could spiral into a full-scale war. Israel's strategy in this phase of the conflict appears to be one of calibrated pressure. By striking critical but less politically explosive infrastructure, it weakens Iran's capabilities without crossing red lines that could provoke uncontrolled escalation or alienate international partners. Iran has developed alternatives to Kharg, including the Jask oil terminal on the Gulf of Oman, which allows exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. It has also developed storage capacity aboard a shadow fleet of tankers and at floating facilities, allowing it to continue exports even under the US and other producers have increased output to reduce global reliance on Gulf oil, the Strait of Hormuz and the Kharg terminal remain integral to the flow of energy. Any threat to Kharg causes anxiety in global markets, leading to volatility and risk Kharg terminal is not merely an oil export facility. It is Iran's economic artery. While Israel has demonstrated a willingness to target Iran's nuclear and energy infrastructure, avoiding Kharg suggests a recognition of the enormous risks involved. Striking Kharg could trigger a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, spark retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, cause global energy shocks and economic disruption, and escalate the conflict beyond the point of control. For now, Kharg remains a red line that Israel does not appear willing to cross.(With inputs from agencies)
News18
20-06-2025
- Business
- News18
The Strait Of Hormuz: Has Iran Ever Closed The World's Most Critical Oil Route?
Last Updated: For decades, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions with Israel hit new highs, the question returns: Has it ever done it? And what happens if it does now? For over half a century, the Strait of Hormuz has served as the world's most vital energy corridor. Connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, this narrow waterway, just 21 nautical miles wide at its tightest point, is the main transit route for oil and gas exports from some of the most energy-rich nations on the planet. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and the UAE all depend on it to get their crude to global markets. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), nearly 20–21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait every single day, roughly a fifth of the world's daily consumption. It is also a key route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially from Qatar. Any disruption here doesn't just rattle West Asia; it shakes energy markets across the globe. And yet, despite decades of political brinkmanship, proxy wars, sanctions, drone attacks and naval showdowns, the Strait of Hormuz has never once been fully shut in modern history. Has The Strait Ever Been Closed? No. But It Has Come Close One of the most persistent myths about West Asia's conflicts is that Iran has previously blocked the Strait of Hormuz. While it is true that Tehran has repeatedly threatened to do so, sometimes in response to sanctions, sometimes as political posturing, it has never followed through. During the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s, both sides launched attacks on oil tankers in what became known as the 'Tanker War." Iran mined parts of the Gulf and used fast-attack boats to target Kuwaiti and Saudi tankers. Iraq retaliated with missile strikes. The conflict led the United States to intervene, reflagging Kuwaiti tankers and escorting them with US warships under Operation Earnest Will. Several ships were damaged, some sunk, and global oil prices spiked. But crucially, the Strait remained open throughout, battered but not blocked. In 2011 and 2012, Iran once again threatened to close the Strait in response to European and American sanctions targeting its oil exports and banking system. Senior Iranian officials, including then-Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, warned of a complete shutdown if oil sanctions were enforced. Western powers responded swiftly, dispatching naval forces to the region. The United States, the UK and France conducted high-visibility naval exercises, making it clear that any attempt to blockade Hormuz would provoke military retaliation. Iran, ultimately, did not escalate further. More recently, in 2019, tensions soared after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed 'maximum pressure" sanctions on Tehran. Iran was blamed for attacks on tankers near the Strait and was caught seizing a British-flagged oil tanker, the Stena Impero. A US surveillance drone was also shot down by Iranian forces. Once again, fears of closure gripped global markets. Yet even amid these flashpoints, the Strait remained navigable. Why Has It Never Been Fully Shut? Iran's threats to block the Strait have historically served as a geopolitical lever — a way to raise the stakes without firing the first shot. But a full closure has always been a risky gambit, not least because it would come at a huge cost to Iran itself. About 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports also pass through the Strait. Blocking it would strangle its own economy, already crippled by sanctions, and isolate it further. Moreover, the move would likely be interpreted as an act of war, giving the US and its allies legal and political justification for direct military intervention. With the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquartered in Bahrain, any closure attempt would be met with overwhelming naval force. Diplomatic costs aside, Gulf countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also taken measures to reduce vulnerability by building overland pipelines that bypass Hormuz altogether. Though these pipelines don't eliminate dependence entirely, they offer partial mitigation. As a result, Iran's leadership, while often willing to provoke, threaten, or harass shipping, has historically stopped short of a full blockade. So What Makes The Current Crisis Different? The Israel–Iran conflict in 2025 is distinct not because missiles are flying, they've flown before, but because of the scale, openness, and maritime dimension of the escalation. Three developments make this round far more volatile than previous flare-ups. Israel has publicly acknowledged direct strikes on multiple key Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak. These aren't isolated incidents or covert sabotage attempts. They are deliberate, declared military actions against some of the most protected and strategically vital components of Iran's nuclear programme. This is a sharp departure from previous Israeli operations. In earlier years, Israel was widely believed to be behind cyberattacks like Stuxnet (2010), mysterious explosions at Natanz (2020), and the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (2020), but never formally admitted responsibility. Those were covert, plausibly deniable moves aimed at slowing Iran's nuclear progress without crossing into full-scale war. Record ballistic missile barrages deep into civilian areas While Iran has previously launched missiles, including during escalations in 2024, this round was unprecedented in both scale and intensity. Iranian forces fired hundreds of ballistic missiles, including Sejjil-class and newer variants, toward Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Be'er Sheva. One missile landed on the grounds of Soroka Medical Centre, injuring civilians. The combination of sheer volume, trajectory over densely populated areas, and civilian casualties represents a deliberate escalation meant to pressure the Israeli public. Israel publicly declaring Khamenei a wartime target In a major rhetorical escalation, Israel has shifted from opposing Iran's nuclear ambitions to directly targeting its top leadership. On June 19, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz explicitly declared that ' Khamenei cannot continue to exist," calling him a 'modern Hitler" and blaming him for ordering missile strikes on Israeli civilian infrastructure. Complementing Katz's statement, a Reuters report quoted Israeli officials as saying that the June airstrikes were not just about dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, but were also aimed at 'breaking the foundations of Khamenei's rule" and weakening the regime's internal grip on power. This is the first time Israel has publicly identified Ayatollah Khamenei himself as part of its war objectives. Previous conflicts, even at their peak, focused on Iran's weapons programmes or proxy forces. What Happens If The Strait Is Closed, Even Temporarily? Even a temporary disruption to the flow of oil through Hormuz would have serious global repercussions. Energy markets are already jittery. A full blockade could send oil prices soaring past $120–130 per barrel within days. Shipping insurance premiums would spike. LNG supply chains, particularly to Asia, would be severely impacted. Major energy importers like China, Japan, South Korea and India would feel the heat almost immediately. Naval deployments would increase across the board, and the chances of accidental escalation between rival warships or submarines would rise sharply. The US has already repositioned key naval assets in the Gulf, including aircraft carriers and guided missile destroyers. Freight delays, insurance re-pricing, and investor anxiety could together inflict real damage on the global economy. India: Energy Security and Strategic Stakes India imports more than 60 per cent of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, sourcing supplies from key partners such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. Given this dependency, any prolonged disruption in the strait could affect energy flows and pricing, but Indian officials have sought to project calm amid rising tensions. Speaking to News18, Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri offered reassurance, stating: 'Even if everything goes wrong, we have enough oil." He explained that out of the 5.5 million barrels of crude oil India imports daily, around 1.5 million barrels come via the Hormuz route. 'The worry will be if the strait is closed or choked," he noted, adding that 'there are many countries that would not want it to be shut." Puri emphasised that while India is monitoring the situation closely, the Strait of Hormuz has not been closed in the last 50 years, even during high-tension phases. 'I would use the word anxiety, not worry," he said. 'There have been many phases of heightened tensions in the region, but energy does not stop flowing." India's Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) provide an additional cushion, covering approximately 9–10 days of national demand. Conclusion: A Strait Always On The Brink top videos View all The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a strategic waterway; it is a geopolitical barometer. Its status reflects the tensions in West Asia, and the current indicators are flashing red. While history shows that Iran has never actually closed the Strait, the dynamics in 2025 are markedly different: open hostilities, regional spillover, and the growing likelihood of US intervention. Whether Iran crosses that final line, and whether the world can afford the consequences, remains to be seen. About the Author Karishma Jain Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @ More Get Latest Updates on Movies, Breaking News On India, World, Live Cricket Scores, And Stock Market Updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : Israel-Iran tensions Strait of Hormuz Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 20, 2025, 12:22 IST News explainers The Strait Of Hormuz: Has Iran Ever Closed The World's Most Critical Oil Route?
Time of India
19-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
icra: 4 reasons why crude oil is not likely to sustain $80/bbl. How is India impacted?
Here are 4 reasons why Brent may sustain $80 per bbl: 1) Iran's Strait of Hormuz gamble too costly to close ADVERTISEMENT 2) OPEC production 3) US Shale factor ADVERTISEMENT 4) Global oil demand growth projections ADVERTISEMENT Impact on India While the Israel-Iran tension has kept crude oil on the boil with an 8% jump in the past eight days and 23% over a month, the black gold is unlikely to breach the $80 per barrel mark, according to estimates by a couple of brokerages."While the Iran–Israel conflict is serious and merits close monitoring, we reckon Brent Oil price is unlikely to sustain above US$80/bbl in a durable way unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed, or critical Gulf infrastructure is targeted," Yes Securities said in a note. ICRA too expects crude prices to average between $70-80/bbl for persistent geopolitical tensions and repeated threats, ranging from the Iran–Iraq War to post-Iran Nuclear deal fallout, Iran has never acted on its threat to close the Strait of Securities calls this restraint strategic and economic. The Strait handles nearly 20% of global oil consumption and is vital for Qatar's LNG exports, Iran's own trade, and the energy trade of regional allies like Iraq. A full closure would not only trigger military retaliation, particularly from the US, but also damage Iran's economic interests and international standing, this brokerage has wielded the threat of disruption as a geopolitical bargaining tool, without crossing the line into direct confrontation, Yes OPEC holding spare capacity of 4mbpd—well above Iran's 1.5mbpd exports—and a projected global market surplus of 0.9mbpd before the Israel-Iran flare-up, there is ample supply believes that even if Iranian supplies of 1.5mbpd are taken out, OPEC's spare production capacity of 4mbpd is good enough to compensate for the 2008, the rise of US shale has added millions of barrels per day to global supply, increasing flexibility and price elasticity. This has allowed the market to absorb geopolitical shocks more effectively, with tensions involving Iran, Libya, or Venezuela causing only short-lived price spikes."OPEC's diminished market share and increased spare capacity, especially from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have further capped volatility, making oil prices more range-bound and positioning US shale as a soft ceiling on prices," Yes Securities which is the second largest consumer of oil, has seen a subdued demand post-COVID due to economic rebalancing and a weak real estate sector, Yes Securities said. Long-term energy transition trends such as the rise of electric vehicles, improved fuel efficiency, and supportive green energy transition policies are further restraining demand growth in OECD countries."This softened outlook is mirrored in recent agency forecasts. The International Energy Agency now expects global oil demand to grow by about 0.72mbpd in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 1mbpd. EIA now projects global oil consumption to rise by 0.8mbpd in 2025, down from the earlier projection of 1mbpd," Yes to ICRA, crude oil imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE that pass through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) account for 45-50% of total crude imports by India. Moreover, about 60% of the natural gas imports by India pass through the SoH.A $10/bbl increase in the average price of crude oil for the fiscal year will typically push up net oil imports by $13-14 billion during the these elevated crude oil prices, while the profitability of upstream players will remain healthy and their capex plans will remain intact, the marketing margins of downstream players will be impacted, along with the expansion of LPG under-recoveries.
Economic Times
19-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
4 reasons why crude oil is not likely to sustain $80/bbl. How is India impacted?
Crude oil may not sustain above $80/bbl despite Middle East tensions, say brokerages, citing factors like OPEC's spare capacity, stable US shale output, and weak global demand. For India, a $10/bbl price rise could inflate oil imports by $13–14 billion, hitting downstream margins and LPG subsidy costs. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Here are 4 reasons why Brent may sustain $80 per bbl: 1) Iran's Strait of Hormuz gamble too costly to close Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 2) OPEC production 3) US Shale factor 4) Global oil demand growth projections Impact on India Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads While the Israel-Iran tension has kept crude oil on the boil with an 8% jump in the past eight days and 23% over a month, the black gold is unlikely to breach the $80 per barrel mark, according to estimates by a couple of brokerages."While the Iran–Israel conflict is serious and merits close monitoring, we reckon Brent Oil price is unlikely to sustain above US$80/bbl in a durable way unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed, or critical Gulf infrastructure is targeted," Yes Securities said in a note. ICRA too expects crude prices to average between $70-80/bbl for persistent geopolitical tensions and repeated threats, ranging from the Iran–Iraq War to post-Iran Nuclear deal fallout, Iran has never acted on its threat to close the Strait of Securities calls this restraint strategic and economic. The Strait handles nearly 20% of global oil consumption and is vital for Qatar's LNG exports, Iran's own trade, and the energy trade of regional allies like Iraq. A full closure would not only trigger military retaliation, particularly from the US, but also damage Iran's economic interests and international standing, this brokerage has wielded the threat of disruption as a geopolitical bargaining tool, without crossing the line into direct confrontation, Yes OPEC holding spare capacity of 4mbpd—well above Iran's 1.5mbpd exports—and a projected global market surplus of 0.9mbpd before the Israel-Iran flare-up, there is ample supply believes that even if Iranian supplies of 1.5mbpd are taken out, OPEC's spare production capacity of 4mbpd is good enough to compensate for the 2008, the rise of US shale has added millions of barrels per day to global supply, increasing flexibility and price elasticity. This has allowed the market to absorb geopolitical shocks more effectively, with tensions involving Iran, Libya, or Venezuela causing only short-lived price spikes."OPEC's diminished market share and increased spare capacity, especially from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have further capped volatility, making oil prices more range-bound and positioning US shale as a soft ceiling on prices," Yes Securities which is the second largest consumer of oil, has seen a subdued demand post-COVID due to economic rebalancing and a weak real estate sector, Yes Securities said. Long-term energy transition trends such as the rise of electric vehicles, improved fuel efficiency, and supportive green energy transition policies are further restraining demand growth in OECD countries."This softened outlook is mirrored in recent agency forecasts. The International Energy Agency now expects global oil demand to grow by about 0.72mbpd in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 1mbpd. EIA now projects global oil consumption to rise by 0.8mbpd in 2025, down from the earlier projection of 1mbpd," Yes to ICRA, crude oil imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE that pass through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) account for 45-50% of total crude imports by India. Moreover, about 60% of the natural gas imports by India pass through the SoH.A $10/bbl increase in the average price of crude oil for the fiscal year will typically push up net oil imports by $13-14 billion during the these elevated crude oil prices, while the profitability of upstream players will remain healthy and their capex plans will remain intact, the marketing margins of downstream players will be impacted, along with the expansion of LPG under-recoveries.
Time of India
19-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
4 reasons why crude oil is not likely to sustain $80/bbl. How is India impacted?
While the Israel-Iran tension has kept crude oil on the boil with an 8% jump in the past eight days and 23% over a month, the black gold is unlikely to breach the $80 per barrel mark, according to estimates by a couple of brokerages. "While the Iran–Israel conflict is serious and merits close monitoring, we reckon Brent Oil price is unlikely to sustain above US$80/bbl in a durable way unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed, or critical Gulf infrastructure is targeted," Yes Securities said in a note. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 23.7% Returns in last 5 years with Shriram Life's ULIP Shriram Life Insurance Undo ICRA too expects crude prices to average between $70-80/bbl for FY2026. Here are 4 reasons why Brent may sustain $80 per bbl: 1) Iran's Strait of Hormuz gamble too costly to close Despite persistent geopolitical tensions and repeated threats, ranging from the Iran–Iraq War to post-Iran Nuclear deal fallout, Iran has never acted on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Yes Securities calls this restraint strategic and economic. The Strait handles nearly 20% of global oil consumption and is vital for Qatar's LNG exports, Iran's own trade, and the energy trade of regional allies like Iraq. A full closure would not only trigger military retaliation, particularly from the US, but also damage Iran's economic interests and international standing, this brokerage said. Live Events Tehran has wielded the threat of disruption as a geopolitical bargaining tool, without crossing the line into direct confrontation, Yes noted. 2) OPEC production With OPEC holding spare capacity of 4mbpd—well above Iran's 1.5mbpd exports—and a projected global market surplus of 0.9mbpd before the Israel-Iran flare-up, there is ample supply cushion. Yes believes that even if Iranian supplies of 1.5mbpd are taken out, OPEC's spare production capacity of 4mbpd is good enough to compensate for the fall. 3) US Shale factor Since 2008, the rise of US shale has added millions of barrels per day to global supply, increasing flexibility and price elasticity. This has allowed the market to absorb geopolitical shocks more effectively, with tensions involving Iran, Libya, or Venezuela causing only short-lived price spikes. "OPEC's diminished market share and increased spare capacity, especially from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have further capped volatility, making oil prices more range-bound and positioning US shale as a soft ceiling on prices," Yes Securities said. 4) Global oil demand growth projections China, which is the second largest consumer of oil, has seen a subdued demand post-COVID due to economic rebalancing and a weak real estate sector, Yes Securities said. Long-term energy transition trends such as the rise of electric vehicles, improved fuel efficiency, and supportive green energy transition policies are further restraining demand growth in OECD countries. "This softened outlook is mirrored in recent agency forecasts. The International Energy Agency now expects global oil demand to grow by about 0.72mbpd in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 1mbpd. EIA now projects global oil consumption to rise by 0.8mbpd in 2025, down from the earlier projection of 1mbpd," Yes said. Impact on India According to ICRA, crude oil imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE that pass through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) account for 45-50% of total crude imports by India. Moreover, about 60% of the natural gas imports by India pass through the SoH. A $10/bbl increase in the average price of crude oil for the fiscal year will typically push up net oil imports by $13-14 billion during the year. At these elevated crude oil prices, while the profitability of upstream players will remain healthy and their capex plans will remain intact, the marketing margins of downstream players will be impacted, along with the expansion of LPG under-recoveries.
