Latest news with #IraqConflict
The National
02-07-2025
- Politics
- The National
Israel's war may have weakened the hold of Iran-aligned groups on Iraqi politics
The Middle East has been in turmoil since October 2023. Missiles have flown in just about every direction, and there is significant concern about what the future might hold. One of the surprises, however, is that Iraq has managed to stay out of the conflict. For years, many analysts have argued that Iraq has fallen completely under Iran's shadow partially through control that proxy groups exercise in the country. And yet, these groups have been almost entirely inactive since October 2023, leading to questions as to where exactly the balance of powers lies in Iraq. The Popular Mobilisation Forces were established following ISIS's 2014 invasion and occupation of Iraq's north-west. After the terror group's defeat, the PMF and affiliated groups sought and obtained direct representation in Parliament and in government. Like all other parties, they used those positions to extract rents and to exercise influence over policy and financial matters. The difference, however, is that the PMF used its status as a paramilitary organisation to impose outcomes in ways that many other groups could not. Many factions within the PMF were also plainly anti-western in their rhetoric. On occasion, their leaders could be seen directing marches of (relatively small numbers of) followers and openly declaring that their ultimate source of authority was the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, since 2003, Iraq has lost its monolithic status and has become a more complicated society. The PMF may have been pushing a specific political line, but much of the state and society have had little to no interest in being involved in regional struggles of any kind. Formally, the Iraqi government's position has been to seek to de-escalate tensions in the region and internally. Politically, however, the government is made up of myriad forces, including groups affiliated to the PMF, each of which has its own set of interests and the means to act upon it. The quietist groups have long been at a disadvantage, however, given that they favour a moderate and dialogue-based approach that shies away from confrontation no matter the circumstances, which more aggressive groups have consistently used to push the limits on a range of issues. The contrast can most obviously be seen after arriving at Baghdad International Airport, the road to which has been co-opted by the PMF's efforts to construct a narrative of struggle and resistance. But visitors to Baghdad who drive along that road can look immediately to the left and see the enormous campus of the newly established American University of Baghdad and the thousands of students who now visit every day. English business schools and language academies can be found almost everywhere in the capital, including on streets that sometimes bear the names and faces of Iranian officers and their Iraqi allies who were killed in action by the American military. Recent developments will probably have an impact on that delicate balance. Iraqis and outside observers will all have noticed that the PMF did not get involved at all during the recent fighting between Iran and Israel. Analysts have offered different explanations for what was happening in the background. Some have said that Iran was opposed to any involvement by the PMF for fear that this could lead to greater escalation. Others have argued that Iran's main priority in Iraq is not to seek military support from the PMF but rather to keep the flow of dollars from Baghdad open. According to that narrative, any direct military involvement by the PMF could threaten that financial lifeline. Others still have noted that the Iraqi government – mainly Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani and the security forces – worked tirelessly behind the scenes to keep the country out of the conflict, which has been bearing fruit. Now that the conflict is over, however, a number of consequences will probably flow. Regardless of which narrative is the most accurate, the fact that the PMF did not take any action whatsoever will be interpreted by many as a sign of weakness and vulnerability. Political forces that have always been antagonistic to the PMF will seek at least partial realignment on a number of fronts, much of which the PMF will find hard to resist given that it will all be coming at the same time. Within the Iraqi government itself, and within governing coalitions – including but not limited to the Co-ordination Framework (of which the PMF is a part) – the quietist camp will necessarily feel emboldened. It could be that Iraqi politics will be entering a non-confrontation stage, in which armed skirmishes of any kind will be eschewed in favour of business as usual (including the continued and uninterrupted extraction of rents). Clearly, however, Iraq's relationship with Iran will not break entirely. All that is likely to happen is that Iraqi groups will feel less compelled to consult or to defer to Tehran in as many matters as before. Iraqi political groups' relentless rent-seeking for the past 20 years has always meant that they are economically independent, and many now will feel less politically tethered to Iran as well. If that does happen, it is altogether unclear whether this will translate into any concrete improvements for ordinary Iraqis. It will probably only mean that political power will gradually slip away from the confrontation camp – not with a bang, but with a whimper – with nothing much to replace it other than Iraq's decrepit political system. Iraqi politics is too fractious to coalesce around a concrete strategy, particularly in relation to foreign policy, given the country's limited regional influence. Thus, it is not that a new strategy is being developed. It is that the previous status quo will probably fray without collapsing altogether.
Japan Times
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Iraq treads a tightrope to avoid spillover from Israel-Iran conflict
In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region's latest conflict. But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel's closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory. "There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq," said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.
Arab News
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Iraq treads a tightrope to avoid spillover from Israel-Iran conflict
BAGHDAD: In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region's latest conflict. But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel's closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory. 'There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq,' said political analyst Sajad Jiyad. 'Iraqis have a right to be worried,' he added. With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying following Israel's surprise assault on Iran last week, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, which have been calling for the withdrawal of US troops deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-jihadist coalition. A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that among pro-Iran actors 'everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict.' But Jiyad warned that if the US supports Israel's attacks, it 'may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops' or other American interests like the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Irbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region. This could lead to the US and Israel taking retaliatory actions within Iraq, Jiyad added. Iraq, which has been for years navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles. In 2020, during US President Donald Trump's first term, Washington killed Iran's esteemed Revolutionary Guards general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. Most recently, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraq was on the brink of being drawn into the conflict after pro-Iran factions launched numerous attacks on US troops in the region, as well as mostly failed attacks on Israel, in support of Palestinians. Washington retaliated by hitting the armed groups. In recent days, Baghdad has been working diplomatic channels to prevent the latest violence from spreading onto its turf. It has called on Washington to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran. It also asked Iran not to strike US targets in its territory, and was promised 'positive things,' according to a senior Iraqi official. Israel's use of Iraq's airspace has angered pro-Iran groups, who accused US troops of allowing it. Powerful armed faction Kataeb Hezbollah stressed that Iran does not need 'military support,' but it said that the group is 'closely monitoring' the US military in the region. It warned that if Washington intervenes in the war, the group 'will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation.' A US official urged the Iraqi government to 'protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel.' 'We believe Iraq will be more stable and sovereign by becoming energy independent and distancing itself from Iran's malign influence,' the official told AFP, referring to Iraq's dependency on gas imports from Iran. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that Iran-backed groups 'continue to engage in violent and destabilising activities in Iraq.' Israel's surprise attack on Iran targeted military and nuclear facilities and killed many top commanders and atomic scientists. Iran responded by unleashing barrages of missile strikes on Israel. Tamer Badawi, an expert on Iraqi armed groups, said 'the more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in.' For now, 'Iran is trying to avoid collateral damage to its network by keeping its regional allies on standby. But this posture could shift,' he added. Before launching its attack on Iran, Israel had badly hit Tehran's proxies in the region, significantly weakening some groups, including Lebanon's Hezbollah. 'Beyond attacks within Iraq, Iran-backed Iraqi groups retain the capacity to target Israel from western Iraq using their missile arsenals, as they have done before,' Badawi said. They might also target American interests in Jordan. But Iraqi officials say they have other plans for their country, which has only recently regained a semblance of stability after decades of devastating conflicts and turmoil. Iraq is gearing up for its legislative elections in November, which are often marked by heated political wrangling. For armed groups, elections are a crucial battleground as they strive to secure more seats in parliament. 'Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons,' a commander of an armed faction told AFP. The armed groups will not leave Iran, their 'godfather.. in the battle alone.'
