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Irish exporters likely to face baseline US tariffs higher than 10pc, says Barclays

Irish Independent

a day ago

Business
Irish Independent

Irish exporters likely to face baseline US tariffs higher than 10pc, says Barclays

Mr Trump has threatened a 30pc rate on imports from the EU from August 1, but negotiations will continue in the meantime and it is expected that a headline agreement will be in place by the new deadline. Given that Mr Trump appears to have rejected the current draft US-EU deal, which would have kept the tariff rate at the current 10pc and exempted some goods such as aircraft, European businesses need to brace themselves for a higher rate, Barclays has warned. 'While we do not foreclose the possibility that the US and EU can still reach a provisional agreement by August 1 that maintains the average tariff on most EU goods at 10pc, we think it may be more likely than not that the tariff on the EU increases from 10pc, but short of 30pc,' it says. 'We also expect more sectoral tariffs to be announced, which could cover a largefraction of EU exports to the US.' As Mr Trump has been preparing tariffs of 15pc to 20pc on other countries, Barclays says this 'suggests to us that it may be more likely' he will fix on a number in this range for the EU as well. Many Irish businesses are already 'materially hurting' from the current regime of 10pc, according to Ibec. Fergal O'Brien, a director at the lobby group, said low-margin businesses were particularly affected, and also hit by the weakness of the dollar. 'The 10pc tariffs is layered on top of the existing tariffs, and particularly in the case of the food and dairy industry, those are quite chunky,' he said. 'The most tangible impact has been in the drinks sector. 'We still have close to 90pc of distillery capacity mothballed at the moment.' Mr O'Brien said that following the announcement of a 20pc 'reciprocal' tariff by Mr Trump on April 2, the so-called Liberation Day, some firms in the life-sciences sector considered putting staff on immediate short-term work after having contracts in the US cancelled. 'If you go to 30pc, that would raise a lot more issues in terms of the ongoing viability of supply from Ireland, or Irish companies continuing to sell into the US. We think 30pc, if that did transpire, which we don't think it will, would be extremely damaging.' Markets largely shrugged yesterday in response to Mr Trump's threat on Saturday, when he also threatened Mexico with a 30pc tariff from August 1. The Iseq in Dublin finished down almost 1pc on the day, with the stocks usually most reactive to tariff announcements disproportionately affected. Ryanair was down 1.6pc, similar to AIB, while Bank of Ireland was down 1.36pc. Also down was the Kingspan group, whose share price fell by 1.46pc. The biggest fall was experienced by Uniphar, down 1.7pc. Other European stocks also slipped in early trading, but recovered most of their losses by the end of the day. The Cac in France fell by just 0.2pc overall, while the Dax in Germany closed only 0.4pc lower, having been 1.2pc down earlier. The overall Stoxx Europe 600 index, which includes some non-EU markets, was only 0.1pc down on the day. By contrast, the FTSE index gained 0.6pc. The UK has an outline trade deal in place with the US, with a baseline 10pc tariff, leaving it largely immune from fluctuations in Mr Trump's trade policy. US stock indexes had even risen slightly by lunchtime, reflecting the fact many investors think Mr Trump won't ultimately follow through on his threats. The euro also remained unchanged against the dollar.

Oil prices soar after Israel attack on Iran

Irish Independent

14-06-2025

Business
Irish Independent

Oil prices soar after Israel attack on Iran

Today at 21:30 Oil prices surged yesterday after Israel's attack on Iranian military and nuclear targets, amid fears that the conflict could escalate and hinder the distribution of crude. The share price of companies that use a lot of fuel were also hit, with Ryanair among the fallers on the Irish stock exchange. The Iseq fell by 1.58pc on the day, with the airline's share price down 2.4pc.

Iseq surges to all-time high after ECB rate cut

Irish Times

05-06-2025

Business
Irish Times

Iseq surges to all-time high after ECB rate cut

The Irish stock exchange surged to a fresh all-time high on Thursday, following the news that the European Central Bank (ECB) was 'getting to the end' of a rates cycle which has seen eight consecutive cuts. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index edged up 0.2 per cent in reaction to the news. DUBLIN The Iseq All-Share index ended the session up 2.07 per cent, 234.84 points, to 11.606.50. READ MORE The banking sector saw a sharp rise in response to the ECB announcement, Bank of Ireland rose 3.84 per cent to €12.44, with AIB coming in just behind that rise, up 3.74 per cent to €7.07. Permanent TSB broke the sectoral continuity, falling 1.94 per cent to €1.77. Kingspan closed up 2.97 per cent in reaction to news that the company is set to make a $1 billion (€900 million) capital investment into the US over the next five years, an increase on its previous budget of $750 million. A series of defensive stocks also rose on the day, Kenmare rose 3.11 per cent, Glanbia followed suit rising 2.71 per cent and Uniphar closed 2.24 per cent. LONDON Britain's benchmark index closed a shade higher on Thursday with mining stocks leading gains, tracking higher metal prices in a choppy session as investors looked for new developments on the trade front, while a drop in Wizz Air shares hit midcaps. The blue-chip index FTSE 100 ended 0.1 per cent higher, marking its fifth consecutive single-day gain, while the midcap index fell 0.2 per cent. Industrial metal miners were among the top gaining subsectors, up 1.8 per cent as copper prices touched a two-month high. A gauge for precious metal miners also climbed 3.5 per cent. Losses in advertising group WPP and top food retailer Sainsbury's kept a lid on gains in the blue-chip index, as their shares traded without entitlement to a dividend. Among midcaps, Wizz Air plunged 27.9 per cent after the budget carrier reported an approximately 62 per cent slide in annual operating profit, citing capacity constraints due to grounded planes. Other airline stocks like EasyJet and IAG declined about 1 per cent each. On the flip side, Dr Martens jumped 25.8 per cent after the bootmaker forecast a return to profit growth in the current financial year. EUROPE The pan-European Stoxx 600, which was initially in positive territory, abruptly reversed course, crawling into the red as Lagarde's remarks about the bank being 'well-positioned' to handle global economic uncertainty sent a signal to investors to temper dovish expectations. The benchmark index finally edged up 0.2 per cent. The banking sector bounced back from an early dip to emerge as the day's top sectoral performer, benefiting from the prospect of rates staying higher for longer. Conversely, the rate-sensitive real estate sector, initially buoyed by the rate cut, saw its gains evaporate after Lagarde's remarks, closing 0.2 per cent lower. The broader consumer discretionary segment bore the brunt of the market's recalibration, with food and beverage stocks – seen as bellwethers for consumer spending – suffering the steepest declines. Luxury stocks, another segment heavily reliant on consumer confidence, trailed closely behind as the second-worst performer. Elsewhere, industrial metal miners climbed 1.4 per cent, on the coattails of surging copper prices which touched a two-month high. Wise gained 7.1 per cent after the money transfer company said it intends to move its primary listing to the US from London. Bayer was up 4.4 per cent after Goldman Sachs upgraded the German chemicals group to 'buy' from 'neutral'. NEW YORK Wall Street indexes rose on Thursday in mid afternoon trading after US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to negotiate on tariffs that have weighed on global markets, while investors awaited a key jobs report to gauge the labour market's health. Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 subsectors rose, with information technology shares leading the gains. Tesla shares fell as much as 5 per cent during the day. Chief executive Elon Musk and self-proclaimed 'First Buddy' of Trump has stepped up criticism of the president's massive tax legislation in recent days. Brown-Forman had dropped the most on the S&P 500 in mid afternoon trading, after the Jack Daniel's maker forecast a decline in annual revenue and profit. Procter & Gamble said it will cut 7,000 jobs, or about 6 per cent of its workforce, over the next two years, as part of a restructuring. Shares of the consumer goods bellwether fell 1.2 per cent. – Additional reporting, Reuters, PA.

German 30 year bond yields hit two month high

Business Post

22-05-2025

Business
Business Post

German 30 year bond yields hit two month high

DUBLIN The Iseq All Share opened in the red on Thursday, falling 0.34 per cent (-39.24bps)... Jakob Stausholm, the chief executive of Australian mining firm Rio Tinto will step... German long-term bond yields hit a two-month high on Thursday, as investors' concerns... London's FTSE 100 began Thursday's trade in the red, following the trend seen... The Iseq All Share opened in the red on Thursday morning and dropped 0.35 per cent... The European Union's investment vehicle is investing €40 million in a dedicated... Profits at Telegram leapt to $540 million last year, as the messaging app achieved...

Profits at Telegram jumped to $540 million last year