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This isn't the Iranian regime change you're looking for
This isn't the Iranian regime change you're looking for

Business Times

time30-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Business Times

This isn't the Iranian regime change you're looking for

Back when I used to be able to visit Iran, I remember always being surprised by the popularity of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) elite Al-Quds force, who was assassinated on US President Donald Trump's orders in 2020. This was true even of Westward-looking Teheranis who loathed the regime and held parties where the alcohol flowed and the skirts were short. Asked why, the answer was always the same. Soleimani kept the foreign threats destabilising other countries of the Middle East at bay; he fought them abroad so they would not have to be fought at home. Islamic State, a Sunni-Islamist terrorist organisation, could terrorise Shiites in Iraq and their Alawite cousins in Syria – but the streets of Teheran were safe. Soleimani played on this. He would be photographed wearing fatigues out with pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, carefully curating a near mythological image of daring and skill. This resonated, even though he stood at the core of a hated regime, because he seemed to hold the ring for what most Iranians craved: normal lives, safety and a chance at prosperity. They wanted a nuclear reconciliation with the US and Europe, allowing for sanctions to lift and investment to return, for precisely the same reasons. But that was then. A 2015 nuclear deal was agreed but quickly eviscerated by Trump. The IRGC profited from the 'maximum pressure' sanctions that followed, taking over much of the domestic economy and trade (which became primarily smuggling). Inflation soared. Private business withered. Living standards plummeted. And the worse things got, the more the IRGC cracked down domestically. There is no new Soleimani. The very source of his popularity – that he kept the dogs of war from Iranian doors – has become cause to despise his successors. Al-Quds increasingly was in the business of using the proxy network he built to poke the US and Israeli bears. That obsession backfired spectacularly this month, with Israeli jets bombing Teheran and US B-2s dropping bunker busters on Iranian nuclear facilities. Soleimani would be hated, too, were he alive today, because he was a leading architect of all this hubris. Indeed, attitudes were changing even before he died. But I think his passage from hero to villain is the context in which to see Iran's next move, now that the US and Israel have called off their jets. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Change will come in some form, though likely not one we would all prefer. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 86 years old. He rules a youthful nation in which some 70 per cent of the population were not even born when the revolution that drives him took place. Having led the country into so desolate a cul-de-sac, his regime will pay a price. The question is how and at whose expense. Change – but with limits Change can form around Khamenei or by the IRGC replacing or marginalising him. But there are clear limits; the regime cannot afford to acknowledge that the billions upon billions of dollars it has spent on a nuclear programme, and the hundreds of billions more lost due to the sanctions, were all for nothing. It cannot be seen to surrender to 'The Great Satan'. Nor can it realistically afford to just carry on as before, pursuing reckless aggression abroad, while ruling by fear alone at home. A successful popular uprising is unlikely. Khamenei and the IRGC have faced major protests before, and repeatedly crushed them. They have about one million men under arms, many of them heavily indoctrinated. Urban Iranians are also by now cautious, not just because of that experience, but also because they know theirs is an ethnically fractured country. They have no interest in becoming the next Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan. This leaves the best plausible outcome as a return to the popular age of Soleimani, so an internal regime recalibration rather than regime change. Flexibility in survival As Cameran Ashraf, an Iranian human rights activist and assistant professor of public policy at the Central European University in Vienna, puts it, we may all be surprised by how things unfold. 'The regime has had very strong emphasis on survival from day one,' he said. 'So, I think there is a type of flexibility there.' We saw some of that already in the carefully choreographed response Iran gave to the US bombing of Fordow. In such a scenario, negotiators would return to talks this week in search of ways to relieve pressure on the regime and Iran's economy, making limited concessions on the nuclear programme in exchange. The IRGC would take a more defensive posture abroad. At home, authorities would relent in some areas of needlessly provocative domestic repression – like enforcement of headscarf laws – as they have done at times in the past. Any such course correction would be tactical. The Islamic Republic will not change its spots, until it is no more. But as I argued before, there is no one-and-done when it comes to Iran's nuclear programme, neither by diplomacy nor by force. Both sides would be trying to buy time. The alternative is that Khamenei simply doubles down, concluding that no diplomatic settlement is possible because the US is bent on Iran's destruction and cannot be trusted. The focus would be on regime consolidation, rebuilding defences and acquiring a nuclear deterrent as soon as possible. So far, most signs point to this uglier outcome. Driven to paranoia by the level of Israeli intelligence penetration that led to the killing of dozens of top military commanders and nuclear scientists, a brutal domestic crackdown is underway. As at Sunday (Jun 29), there was little sign the nuclear negotiations Trump has trailed for this week will in fact take place. The US and the West as a whole need to play a more subtle game. In the wake of the bombings, keeping Iran from pulling out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and from expelling International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors is vital. This should not be sacrificed to the pursuit of an unachievable certainty. Failure to reach a political settlement would all but guarantee further airstrikes and leave the region more unstable and prone to a nuclear arms race than before Trump's military intervention. BLOOMBERG

Life in Iran after the strikes: Executions, arrests and paranoia
Life in Iran after the strikes: Executions, arrests and paranoia

Mint

time28-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Mint

Life in Iran after the strikes: Executions, arrests and paranoia

As soon as U.S. and Israeli bombs stopped raining down on Iran, the country's theocratic leaders and the security forces emerged from their bunkers and began waging a new campaign—this time against their own people, targeting alleged spies, dissidents and opposition figures. Checkpoints have sprung up across Tehran as the authorities seek to reassert control and hunt people they suspect helped Israel's attacks on air defenses, nuclear sites, and top officers and atomic scientists in a 12-day air war that exposed the state's inability to defend itself. As the smell of high explosives hung in the air of the capital, police and intelligence officers arrested hundreds of people, and are detaining more each day. Armed paramilitary police are patrolling the streets. People are being stopped and having their cars, phones and computers searched. The government announced the hasty execution of at least six men. 'The situation for Iranian people is more dangerous now than before the war," said Narges Mohammadi, a Nobel Prize-winning Iranian human-rights activist who is one of the country's highest profile opposition figures. She said the regime would do what it takes to consolidate power and is cracking down. More than 1,000 people have been detained over the past two weeks for allegedly aiding Israel, according to Amnesty International. Esmail Qaani—who leads the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' elite Quds Force and was reported to have been killed—appeared at a pro-regime rally in Tehran hours after the cease-fire began, according to a video posted by Revolutionary Guard-affiliated Tasnim News Agency. Wearing a black beret, he appeared on a busy street crowded with regime supporters who waved Iranian flags. The Shia Islamist regime has also stepped up efforts to enforce the regime's strict rules governing what it considers to be appropriate behavior and dress. 'The morality police are back," said a 44-year-old woman who said she had fled Tehran during the war. 'The police even stopped us and questioned us, because the socks of the woman with me were too see-through." Israeli and U.S. airstrikes marked the first time Iran had come under sustained foreign attack on its own soil since an eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. The capital, Tehran, emerged as a primary war zone, and the Revolutionary Guard found itself in the crosshairs. Throughout the strikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sheltered in a bunker outside Tehran, unreachable by anyone but his closest allies, according to an Arab official briefed on the matter and an adviser to the Revolutionary Guard. His isolation complicated talks in Geneva with European nations seeking to mediate an end to the war, Arab officials said. On Thursday, he spoke to the nation for the first time since June 19, seeking to play down the damage from the attack and rally the nation around the Iranian flag. 'The Islamic Republic was victorious, and in return dealt a harsh blow to America's face," he said in a hoarse voice. The attacks showed how deeply Israel's Mossad intelligence agency had infiltrated Iran. They slipped explosive drones and other munitions into Iran, where they were used by teams of agents to take out air defenses and kill high profile targets. 'The Israelis organized penetrations, transfers of bombs and explosives, and recruited people from within," Mohammad Amin-Nejad, Iran's ambassador to France, told French broadcaster France 24 last week. It happened 'right before our eyes. There were vulnerabilities." The atmosphere in Tehran remains tense as people start heading back to work and trying to resume normal life, residents reached by phone said. Iran's state-controlled media report new arrests and weapons seizures every day. Authorities said Tuesday they had filed 24 cases against alleged Israeli spies in Hamedan, a western Iranian city whose air base was heavily damaged on the first day of the strikes. The suspects 'were sending information, photos, and videos to the enemy," a media report said. Access to the internet was restored Wednesday after being cut off for more than a week. But an official warning not to use messaging services such as WhatsApp was still in effect. The regime says it fears Israeli spies could hack into conversations and gain information. On Wednesday, Iran's intelligence ministry told residents to report any suspicious calls. Earlier, it passed out a set of tips about how to spot a spy. The guidance warned citizens to watch their neighbors for comings and goings at odd hours; heavy use of masks, hats and sunglasses; and signs like metallic banging inside their homes. Spies, the tips said, might live in houses with 'curtains that remain closed even during daylight hours." The domestic crackdown is adding to the widespread feeling of anxiety caused by the war. Dozens of Israeli strikes pounded Tehran, taking aim at missile and nuclear facilities, as well as symbols of the regime and its repression, including the infamous Evin Prison, where political prisoners are held. Tehran's affluent northern neighborhoods, home to many of the targeted nuclear scientists and senior commanders, were some of the worst-hit in the air campaign, rattling the city's elite. Tehran experienced some of the most intense bombardments of the war just hours before the cease-fire came into effect. Residents spent many of their nights awake, sometimes watching the war unfold from their balconies and rooftops, as missiles flashed across the sky followed by explosions and fires. Iran's health ministry said more than 600 people were killed and more than 4,800 injured during the war, according to state-run media, which didn't say how many were from the armed forces. While Iran remained defiant, it took precautions by transporting some of its most precious assets abroad. After Israel began targeting some energy infrastructure, Iran began transferring large amounts of stored crude to Asia, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude-oil analysis at data commodities company Kpler. As of June 22, the quantity of stored crude at Kharg Island—Iran's main point of oil exports—had dropped, while volumes of Iranian oil stored near Singapore and China had risen, he said. The roughly five million barrels likely transferred abroad were worth about $375 million at oil prices prevailing at the time. Last week, Iran flew at least four civilian aircraft to the Omani capital of Muscat for safekeeping. One of the planes included Iran's presidential Airbus A340, which landed in Muscat on June 18, according to flight trackers. Arab officials were surprised to learn the planes were empty of passengers. Instead, they said, they carried cash and assets, which Iranians weren't allowed to offload because of sanctions. The planes themselves were also valuable as emergency exits for top officials. The precautions show the level of pressure on Iran's rulers during the war. They now have to find a way forward with no control of their own airspace and no help from their militias. A crippling burden of sanctions will make rebuilding even harder. 'This was one of the most serious security breaches in the regime's history, but it wasn't a turning point. The leadership held, the streets stayed quiet, and the system proved again that it's built not for popularity, but for survival," said Narges Bajoghli, associate professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. 'Iran's system is built to withstand shocks," Bajoghli said. 'The regime hasn't collapsed. It's adapting, and younger IRGC and paramilitary cadres are stepping in—many of them more hard-line than those who were killed." Write to Sudarsan Raghavan at Sune Engel Rasmussen at and Margherita Stancati at

'DEAD' IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani Appears At Tehran 'Victory' March
'DEAD' IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani Appears At Tehran 'Victory' March

Time of India

time25-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Time of India

'DEAD' IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani Appears At Tehran 'Victory' March

Iranian Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Quds Force, was seen alive and well during celebrations Tuesday in Tehran of Iran's self-claimed victory over Israel, according to local media. A video posted by Iran's Tasnim News Agency showed Qaani among the crowd at the event. 'Commander Qaani attends today's gathering of the people of Tehran following Operation Divine Victory,' the agency said on X. Watch. Read More

Still alive: Iran's Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani appears after reports of assassination
Still alive: Iran's Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani appears after reports of assassination

Roya News

time25-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Roya News

Still alive: Iran's Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani appears after reports of assassination

General Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) elite Quds Force, made a rare public appearance in Tehran today, June 24, 2025. Video footage circulating across social media platforms captured the general mingling with crowds at a pro-regime demonstration. His appearance refuted earlier, widespread reports that Qaani had been killed in recent 'Israeli' strikes targeting Iranian military leaders and infrastructure. Reports of Qaani's death emerged early in the recent conflict, with the New York Times stating, without citing specific sources, that he was among several Iranian military leaders purportedly killed in 'Israeli' strikes. These claims surfaced during 'Israel's' attack on Iran on June 13, 2025. The 'Israeli' military did not confirm targeting or killing Qaani. This is not the first occasion Qaani has been falsely reported dead. In October, widespread rumors suggested his demise in an 'Israeli' strike on Beirut that resulted in the death of senior Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine. Esmail Qaani holds the critical position of commander of the IRGC Quds Force, an elite special operations unit primarily tasked with Iran's extraterritorial military and intelligence operations. He assumed leadership of the Quds Force in January 2020, following the assassination of his charismatic predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, in a US drone strike in Baghdad. His operational history also extends to Afghanistan and Pakistan, where he was involved in combating drug smuggling and supporting Afghanistan's Northern Alliance. Unlike Soleimani, who was renowned for his charismatic public persona and fluency in Arabic, Qaani has generally maintained a lower public profile. His tenure has reportedly coincided with significant setbacks for Iranian proxies, which have faced increased pressure from 'Israeli' airstrikes and intelligence operations. He has also reportedly faced scrutiny over suspected security breaches and alleged negligence within his office.

'Get me Bibi', says Trump as he brokers a ceasefire between Israel, Iran
'Get me Bibi', says Trump as he brokers a ceasefire between Israel, Iran

Business Standard

time24-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Business Standard

'Get me Bibi', says Trump as he brokers a ceasefire between Israel, Iran

The report stated that Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal as long as Iran promises not to launch fresh attacks. Iran also signalled its intent not to launch any more attacks Swati Gandhi New Delhi US President Donald Trump called for talks with Israel and Iran in an attempt to broker a ceasefire deal and said, 'Get me Bibi. We're going to make peace', Reuters reported, citing a senior White House official. A deal was brokered between the two sides on Monday (local time). While Trump spoke with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US Vice President JD Vance held talks with officials in Tehran. Trump called for talks on Saturday night, hours after the US struck nuclear facilities in Iran and joined Israel in its fight against Iran. The official said that Trump directed his team on Saturday night and asked them to get on the phone with the Iranians. The report stated that Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal as long as Iran promises not to launch fresh attacks. Iran also signalled its intent not to launch any more attacks. JD Vance, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff were part of the direct and indirect communications with Iran, the report added. US-Iran talks Reuters reported that the Trump administration negotiated with Iran on five different occasions in the weeks leading up to the conflict; however, Iran did not back down from its demand of continuing to enrich uranium, leading to fall out in the talks between the two. On June 19, Trump announced that he would make a decision on the use of American force 'within two weeks'; however, by June 21, he ordered the bombing of nuclear facilities in Iran. The decision to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran marked a change in stance that Trump had long vowed to avoid intervening militarily in a major foreign war Israel-Iran war On June 13, Israel launched 'Operation Rising Lion' and targeted nuclear sites in Iran's capital city. The conflict escalated after tensions rose over Iran's rapidly advancing nuclear programme. Hours after Israeli strikes, Iran retaliated and launched counterstrikes. Tensions escalated soon after with both sides launching fresh strikes in retaliation and resulting in the loss of lives, including some of the top Iranian leaders like Hossein Salami, the chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC).

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