Latest news with #Israel-Iran-US
Indian Express
5 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
Ram Madhav writes: India and the new world order
Eurasia is in turmoil. Three major conflicts — Russia-Ukraine, Israel's Gaza operations and the Israel-Iran-US conflict — are reshaping the geopolitics of the region. Wars don't just cause physical destruction, they profoundly impact international relations. Beyond Eurasia, US President Donald Trump is causing serious drift and disorder in the Western world. The US and Western Europe, powerhouses of the last century, appear to be decisively moving into a slow afternoon. At the same time, the world is witnessing the unmissable rise of China as a dominant economic and technological superpower. These developments, coupled with a few other important ones, will lead to the emergence of a new global order. Therein lies a major challenge for India. It developed institutions and initiatives based on the premises of the old world. But the emerging order calls for a new way of thinking about its geostrategic priorities. During the ill-fated Cultural Revolution years in China, Chairman Mao Zedong used to call for the abolition of the 'Four Olds' — old ideology, old culture, old habits and old customs. This might be a wrong analogy, but India, too, needs to come out of the mindset of the last century. India has built a strong partnership with Europe over the past few decades. In recent years, the Narendra Modi government has successfully enhanced engagement with Middle Eastern powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Out of those engagements emerged the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) initiative. IMEC is a promising initiative connecting South Asia with the GCC region and Europe. Signed in September 2023 on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi, IMEC became the flavour of the season for many strategic pundits and fodder for think tanks. However, given the changed geopolitical scenario in Eurasia, India needs to recalibrate IMEC carefully. Although a beneficial project, it faces daunting challenges, the cauldron in Eurasia being the major one. With stability eluding the region, IMEC's future, too, remains ambiguous. At a more fundamental level, the positioning of IMEC itself has been flawed. Most commentaries seek to pit it against China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Confusing the geo-economic with the geo-strategic is one of the old-school traits that many in India fail to overcome. It must be remembered that almost all the member countries of the GCC are partners in the BRI while at least 17 out of 27 EU member countries have closer trade ties with China. Only Italy decided to quit the BRI recently while the rest continue to enjoy Chinese largesse. There is IMEC-related romanticism too, with some scholars overemphasising the millennia-old history when India traded with Europe through ports in the Gulf. It is a fact that India traded in spices and textiles with Europe in return for gold in the good old days — so much so that scholars in Rome used to bitterly complain to their emperor that India was draining all the gold from their kingdom. But today's reality is different. Oman, whose ports were an important part of the route in ancient times, is not even part of IMEC. Then there is the logistics nightmare. In the IMEC scheme, goods from India will reach Middle Eastern ports like Jebel Ali (Dubai) by sea lines. From there, they will be transported through the land route to Haifa in Israel. Beyond Haifa, it will again be a journey through the sea lines to European ports like Marseille in France and Trieste in Italy. Some argue that it bypasses the Suez Canal and thus helps save time and money for the exports. This is contestable. Seventy-five ships pass through the Suez Canal every day in normal times. Each carries a minimum load of 1,00,000 tonnes. If the Suez needs to be bypassed, it requires massive rail infrastructure through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Israel. One has to look at the numbers just to understand the magnitude of the challenge. A single reasonably long freight train can carry 5,500 tonnes of goods. That means for every ship diverting to the Middle East, we need a minimum of 18.5 trains to carry that load to Israel. One can easily calculate the number of trains required and the time this would consume if even a fraction of the ships decide to junk Suez and take this route. Moreover, countries on the land route like Jordan and Egypt are still not part of IMEC. Undoubtedly, beyond these nightmarish challenges lies the opportunity of the $18 trillion economy of the EU that India can explore. But it must also be kept in mind that the EU's GDP growth is sluggish at around 1 per cent, and China is already a big presence in the EU market with a more than 55 per cent share in the manufactured goods sector and a significantly growing share in other key sectors. That leaves less scope for India to penetrate. India has a history of such projects. Long before venturing into the IMEC initiative, in 2000, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government announced the North-South corridor project with much fanfare. It was duly signed by India, Russia and Iran in 2003. Two decades later, while the project remained on paper for India, China quickly entered and built formidable ties with the two countries. Similarly, we talked about a Look East policy in the 1990s, seeking to build strong ties with the roaring Asian Tigers. It became the Act East policy under PM Modi. Yet our engagement with a region that became a free trade partner in 2010, and a comprehensive strategic partner in 2022, remained below par. While India's trade with ASEAN remains at $120 billion, China's trade is touching $1 trillion and growing rapidly. Besides IMEC, Eastern and Central Europe, Russia and ASEAN are important regions for India's geostrategic objectives. It is time India reconfigured its global engagements, going beyond old-world romanticism and Cold War calculations, and followed a multidirectional approach with specific end goals. The writer, president, India Foundation, is with the BJP. Views are personal
Middle East Eye
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
Trump doesn't think Iran deal needed after facilities ‘blown up to kingdom come'
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that his administration plans to resume talks with Iran next week, but he doesn't care if a nuclear agreement is signed because Iran's facilities have been 'blown up to kingdom come'. 'We are going to talk to them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement. I don't know…I don't care if I have an agreement or not,' he said. 'The only thing we would be asking for is what we were asking for before…we want no nuclear, but we destroyed the nuclear… it's blown up to kingdom come. I don't care very strongly about it. If we got a document, it wouldn't be bad.' Trump's comments during a Nato summit in the Netherlands come amid conflicting reports about the damage US strikes did to Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities over the weekend. On Wednesday, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the country's nuclear facilities had been 'badly damaged' by the American strikes. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters But a day earlier, several US media outlets reported unnamed sources briefed on a battle damage assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency that claimed the US strikes had only set Iran's programme back a few months. CNN cited one source as saying that some of Iran's centrifuges were 'intact'. Trump confirmed the leak was legitimate, but accused American media outlets of misrepresenting the assessment. 'The document said 'it could be limited or it could be very severe [damage]'… and you didn't choose to put that,' he said, addressing a CNN reporter. CNN was the first to report the leak. Trump said the US received more intelligence about the damage after the report, including by speaking with sources on the ground in Iran with access to Iran's nuclear programme. What the Israel-Iran-US conflict taught Pakistan Read More » 'We have also spoken to people who have seen the site. The site is obliterated. Everything nuclear is down there. They didn't take it out,' he said. Trump was likely referring to reports that Iran was able to move a stockpile of uranium from sites before the US struck them. An Arab official briefed on the matter previously told Middle East Eye that Iran had received advance warning of the US strikes. Amwaj Media first reported that Tehran was notified before the US attacked. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that just five days into the war, its inspectors lost track of Iran's 409 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. That amount, which could be easily transported in a container by truck, is enough for 10 nuclear warheads if Iran were to pursue weaponisation. Before Israel's attack, Iran and the US were in talks to curb the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that his country was willing to return to negotiations over its nuclear programme, according to state media. Since launching strikes on Iran over the weekend, Trump has moved to de-escalate tensions. He thanked Iran on Monday for providing advance notice about its retaliatory strike on the US's al-Udeid military base in Qatar. Trump announced a ceasefire to the war a few hours after the attack. On Tuesday, he lashed out at both Israel and Iran when it appeared to wobble, saying the two foes "have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing'. Speaking at the Nato summit, Trump said both Iran and Israel were 'tired [and] exhausted' and 'satisfied to go home and get out'. He also said he would have no problem with Iran selling its oil to China. The US slapped sanctions on Iran's oil sales to China during the nuclear talks. 'They just had a war. They fought it bravely. They are in the oil business…they are going to need money to put that country back into shape….If they are going to sell oil, they are going to sell oil,' Trump said.
Time of India
24-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil prices likely to stabilize near $65 as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire: SBI Report
Crude oil prices are now expected to remain around $65 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, bringing relief to global markets. According to a recent report by SBI , the price of oil depends heavily on Iran's response to the recent tensions in the Middle East. The report laid out three possible scenarios, each with a different price impact. Now, with the ceasefire announced, the third scenario of 'ceasefire with Israel' has come into effect, and crude oil prices are likely to stabilise around $65. The report stated, "Different scenarios being built along the Iran-Israel conflict seem a little far-fetched, especially a worst-case scenario, on oil's trajectory, given that any sharp increase in prices may not be a long-term phenomenon." As per the report, if Iran had chosen a path of substantial retaliation against the US and the conflict had widened regionally, oil prices could have jumped sharply, reaching as high as $130 to 140 per barrel. This would have created a major shock for oil-importing countries . The second scenario considered symbolic retaliation by Iran and continued conflict with Israel, which would have kept crude oil prices steady around $80 to 90 per barrel. Now, with a ceasefire officially declared by President Trump, the report suggested that the market is likely to follow the third and most optimistic path, with oil prices falling to around $65 per barrel in the coming weeks. During the recent Israel-Iran-US conflict, crude oil prices had surged as high as $79 per barrel on Monday, reflecting market fears of further escalation. However, the SBI report also pointed out that some of the extreme projections for oil prices, especially in the worst-case scenario, appear far-fetched. The report further stated that the only event that could have led to sustained prices above the crude price of $130 would be the use of weapons of mass destruction by either side, a situation so severe that its cost cannot be measured through normal economic models. United States President Donald Trump announced on Monday (local time) what he described as a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran, stating that it would take effect in approximately six hours. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the ceasefire has been jointly agreed upon by both nations and would mark a significant de-escalation in hostilities that have gripped the region. With tensions now easing, global oil markets may return to stability, which is a major positive for oil-importing countries like India. Lower oil prices will help reduce the current account deficit and support economic growth.
India Gazette
24-06-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
Oil prices likely to stabilize near USD 65 as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire: SBI Report
New Delhi [India], June 24 (ANI): Crude oil prices are now expected to remain around USD 65 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, bringing relief to global markets. According to a recent report by SBI, the price of oil depends heavily on Iran's response to the recent tensions in the Middle East. The report laid out three possible scenarios, each with a different price impact. Now, with the ceasefire announced, the third scenario of 'ceasefire with Israel' has come into effect, and crude oil prices are likely to stabilise around USD 65. The report stated, 'Different scenarios being built along the Iran-Israel conflict seem a little far-fetched, especially a worst-case scenario, on oil's trajectory, given that any sharp increase in prices may not be a long-term phenomenon.' As per the report, if Iran had chosen a path of substantial retaliation against the US and the conflict had widened regionally, oil prices could have jumped sharply, reaching as high as USD 130 to 140 per barrel. This would have created a major shock for oil-importing countries. The second scenario considered symbolic retaliation by Iran and continued conflict with Israel, which would have kept crude oil prices steady around USD 80 to 90 per barrel. Now, with a ceasefire officially declared by President Trump, the report suggested that the market is likely to follow the third and most optimistic path, with oil prices falling to around USD 65 per barrel in the coming weeks. During the recent Israel-Iran-US conflict, crude oil prices had surged as high as USD 79 per barrel on Monday, reflecting market fears of further escalation. However, the SBI report also pointed out that some of the extreme projections for oil prices, especially in the worst-case scenario, appear far-fetched. The report further stated that the only event that could have led to sustained prices above the crude price of USD 130 would be the use of weapons of mass destruction by either side, a situation so severe that its cost cannot be measured through normal economic models. United States President Donald Trump announced on Monday (local time) what he described as a 'complete and total' ceasefire between Israel and Iran, stating that it would take effect in approximately six hours. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the ceasefire has been jointly agreed upon by both nations and would mark a significant de-escalation in hostilities that have gripped the region. With tensions now easing, global oil markets may return to stability, which is a major positive for oil-importing countries like India. Lower oil prices will help reduce the current account deficit and support economic growth. (ANI)
Time of India
24-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil prices likely to stabilize near $65 as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire: SBI Report
Following President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, crude oil prices are expected to stabilize around USD 65 per barrel, according to an SBI report. This optimistic scenario brings relief to global markets after recent tensions had pushed prices as high as USD 79. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Crude oil prices are now expected to remain around USD 65 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, bringing relief to global to a recent report by SBI , the price of oil depends heavily on Iran's response to the recent tensions in the Middle East. The report laid out three possible scenarios, each with a different price with the ceasefire announced, the third scenario of 'ceasefire with Israel' has come into effect, and crude oil prices are likely to stabilise around USD report stated, "Different scenarios being built along the Iran-Israel conflict seem a little far-fetched, especially a worst-case scenario, on oil's trajectory, given that any sharp increase in prices may not be a long-term phenomenon."As per the report, if Iran had chosen a path of substantial retaliation against the US and the conflict had widened regionally, oil prices could have jumped sharply, reaching as high as USD 130 to 140 per barrel. This would have created a major shock for oil-importing countries The second scenario considered symbolic retaliation by Iran and continued conflict with Israel, which would have kept crude oil prices steady around USD 80 to 90 per with a ceasefire officially declared by President Trump, the report suggested that the market is likely to follow the third and most optimistic path, with oil prices falling to around USD 65 per barrel in the coming the recent Israel-Iran-US conflict, crude oil prices had surged as high as USD 79 per barrel on Monday, reflecting market fears of further the SBI report also pointed out that some of the extreme projections for oil prices, especially in the worst-case scenario, appear report further stated that the only event that could have led to sustained prices above the crude price of USD 130 would be the use of weapons of mass destruction by either side, a situation so severe that its cost cannot be measured through normal economic States President Donald Trump announced on Monday (local time) what he described as a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran, stating that it would take effect in approximately six a post on Truth Social, Trump said the ceasefire has been jointly agreed upon by both nations and would mark a significant de-escalation in hostilities that have gripped the tensions now easing, global oil markets may return to stability, which is a major positive for oil-importing countries like India. Lower oil prices will help reduce the current account deficit and support economic growth.
