Latest news with #Israel-US-Iran
CNET
5 days ago
- Business
- CNET
Mortgage Rate Predictions: Will Military Conflict, Tariffs and the Fed Keep Rates High?
Buyers should keep an eye on the possibility of rate cuts in the next few months. Tharon Green/CNET The housing market is hardly immune to political and economic volatility, yet mortgage rates have been eerily calm over the last period. Since the spring, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has moved in a mostly narrow range around 6.8% and 7%. Mortgage rates were expected to gradually improve in 2025. However, the Trump administration's inflationary tariffs, deficit spending and geopolitical maneuvering led to bleaker forecasts, including fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Mortgage Bankers Association now predicts that mortgage rates will decline only slightly to 6.7% by the end of the year. "You'd need to see mortgage rates pretty far below current levels, certainly below 6.75%, to incentivize homebuyers," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. Economists were also monitoring how a war in the Middle East could spark fresh volatility across global markets, significantly affecting oil prices and the US dollar, which would have a ripple effect on long-term Treasury yields and mortgage rates. However, with the Israel-US-Iran ceasefire holding steady for now, rates haven't undergone major fluctuations. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst of Housing Wire, said that traders mostly saw the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities as a short-term event, muting the impact on mortgage rates. In the coming weeks, housing market experts will be assessing the potential for another military escalation, oil prices and how the Fed responds to labor market data and recession risks. If any of these variables lead to a downward trend in home loan rates, more buyers may come off the sidelines. CNET Fed interest rate cut still projected for fall Despite widespread pleas for lower consumer borrowing costs, including from the White House, the Fed held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive time this year at its monetary policy meeting on June 18. While two Fed officials this week floated the possibility of a July cut, the market largely projects an interest rate cut in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reaffirmed a "wait and see" posture, with concerns over the inflationary impact of tariffs. The Fed is tasked with maintaining maximum employment and containing inflation, primarily through setting its short-term benchmark interest rate for lenders. A sluggish economy typically warrants interest rate cuts to stimulate growth, but lowering rates too quickly could fuel price growth when inflation is still above target. Monetary policy changes by the Fed influence overall borrowing rates, though it's not a one-to-one relationship with home loans. In 2024, the central bank cut interest rates three times, but mortgage rates didn't fall. Mortgage rates are primarily driven by movement in the bond market, specifically the 10-year Treasury yield. Bond yields and interest rates rise or fall depending on how inflation and labor data shift investor speculation and risk assessment. How war and tariffs impact mortgage rates Since mortgage rates are highly sensitive to fiscal policy and supply chain shocks, a global trade war and a military war with Iran could impact the direction of mortgage rates in either direction. For example, if inflation increases due to tariff policies or a surge in energy costs, mortgage rates could increase. "Even though many of the tariffs are in place, some of the big ones have yet to take effect," said Bovino. The average household in the US is expected to lose about $3,000 in income from tariffs, with lower-income households getting hit even harder, according to Bovino. Conversely, a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could also spark fear of a downturn and propel investors to buy government-backed investments like US Treasury bonds. During heightened geopolitical turmoil, increased demand for "safe-haven" bonds can drive prices up and yields down, temporarily pushing mortgage rates lower. However, a brief confrontation of air strikes is not the same as a sustained battle with boots on the ground, according to Matt Graham of Mortgage News Daily. The bigger the US involvement, the higher the implications for the market. "While it's true that major geopolitical conflicts historically have a positive connotation for interest rates, that reaction can be tempered or even counteracted by a variety of factors," Graham said in an email. If the geopolitical conflict has a negative impact on inflation due to a spike in oil prices, for example, that can offset bond demand. Coping with an unaffordable housing market Major affordability challenges resulted in another inactive spring homebuying season. Even as the long-standing housing shortage eases in several local markets and gives some buyers improved negotiating power, the rest remain locked out by steep home prices. "Prices are still incredibly high," Bovino said. "Add to that the borrowing costs of a mortgage, and it's prohibitively expensive for most people to get into the housing market." Plus, with recession risks still on the horizon, people who are nervous about finances will be more reluctant to take on mortgage loan debt. Prospective buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop may soon have to adjust to the "higher for longer" rate environment, with mortgage rates fluctuating between 5% and 7% over the longer term. While market forces are out of your control, there are ways to make buying a home slightly more affordable. Last year, nearly half of all homebuyers secured a mortgage rate below 5%, according to Zillow. Here are some proven strategies that can help you save up to 1.5% on your mortgage rate. 💰 Build your credit score. Your credit score will help determine whether you qualify for a mortgage and at what interest rate. A credit score of 740 or higher will help you qualify for a lower rate. 💰 Save for a bigger down payment. A larger down payment allows you to take out a smaller mortgage and get a lower interest rate from your lender. If you can afford it, a down payment of at least 20% will also eliminate private mortgage insurance. 💰 Shop for mortgage lenders. Comparing loan offers from multiple mortgage lenders can help you negotiate a better rate. Experts recommend getting at least two to three loan estimates from different lenders. 💰 Consider mortgage points. You can get a lower mortgage rate by buying mortgage points, with each point costing 1% of the total loan amount. One mortgage point equals a 0.25% decrease in your mortgage rate. Now Playing: 6 Ways to Reduce Your Mortgage Interest Rate by 1% or More 02:31
Daily Maverick
5 days ago
- Health
- Daily Maverick
Letter to Mahlamba Ndlopfu: Diabetes is on the march, ushering in death like a thief in the night
Ah, Chief Dwasaho. I had hoped, perhaps naïvely, that a ceasefire to end the Israel-American war on Iran might lift my spirits, but it seems I remain a child of a lesser God. While the world held its breath following Iran's reciprocal attack on the American military base in Qatar, I found myself wrestling anew with my own silent killer, type 2 diabetes — one I had thought was buried for good beneath tablets and self-injections. Before the Israel-US-Iran skirmishes, I had already made a poor judgement call. I accepted Novo Nordisk's courtesy to attend the 85th American Diabetes Association (ADA) Congress, which concluded this past Monday in Chicago, US. I should have known better. The word 'diabetes' still sends a shiver down my spine. Twelve years of sweat, blood and tears have passed since I first heard that diagnosis. The years have blurred into struggle, yet hope persists, fragile as the fleeting peace we celebrate in far-off lands, uncertain how long it will last. I am lying, my leader; I was hoping that the science boffins at the ADA would announce a breakthrough for a cure that will improve my blood glucose without my having to lift a finger. I have tried better diets and newer drug regimens, and now I find myself among the ranks of those who rely on injectables. The nightmare worsens with each fasting glucose test. Let the facts speak. Our local figures show that non-communicable diseases, including diabetes, are now a leading cause of death and disability in the country, and their burden is growing at an unprecedented rate. According to the Department of Health's 2023/24 Annual Report, non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and mental health disorders have increased by 58.7% between 2002 and 2022. Sadly, diabetes has now overtaken tuberculosis (TB) as the leading cause of death among non-communicable diseases. At a 2024 World Diabetes Day event, Dr Zaheer Bayat from Helen Joseph Hospital raised the alarm. Bayat said South Africa's growing obesity epidemic was fuelling type 2 diabetes, now increasingly diagnosed in children and young adults. There were at least 5.6 million people with diabetes in South Africa in 2019, according to advisory firm Percept. That number was projected to rise to 5.7 million by 2025 and to 7.2 million by 2030. Stubborn digits The numbers, those stubborn digits that know neither spin doctor nor party whip, do not lie. We are bleeding silently, internally and nationally. The sugar monster, better known by its formal name, diabetes mellitus, is no longer content with its rank as a lifestyle disease. It has launched a full-blown missile attack on our health system and our households. It is now a national emergency, stalking us in rural clinics and urban e-hailing taxis alike. Once upon a time, we held nightly vigils for HIV and tuberculosis. Now, as the clocks of modernity tick on, diabetes tightens its grip, especially in our rural hamlets where the old enemies once reigned supreme. In these forgotten corners of the republic, a new horror dawns: poorly managed diabetes now trumps HIV and TB in its cruelty, ushering in death like a thief in a night clinic. I know this not from theory, my leader, but from the red soil of my own family. My beloved mother, MaMlambo, who had a warm embrace and an iron will, lost her fight against Covid-19. But it was diabetes that signed her death certificate. A year later, my middle brother followed. He lived in Ulundi, a place where health services are as scarce as ANC renewal. Fifty years young, armed only with faith and insulin, he too succumbed to the silent killer. His children were double orphaned, their mother long claimed by the pandemic of HIV/Aids and poverty — a lethal cocktail. I fear the very word, my leader, diabetes. I do not whisper it; I wince. For me, the battlefield is not some sterile clinic with motivational posters and lukewarm nurses. It is the blood test queue, the quarterly HbA1c verdict, and the trembling hand reaching for a glucometer. That number, calculated over 90 bitter days, is both my confessor and executioner. It tells me what the doctors won't: that I am losing ground. Once, I held the line. My glucose levels were stable. I marched to the beat of clean eating and regular medical check-ups. Then came Covid-19 twice. Each wave carved a little more of me away. The sugars spiked. Early this year, pneumonia arrived like an uninvited third cousin. The steroid treatment, my lifesaver, became the sugar saboteur. And so, I joined the ranks of the injectables. But let us not pretend the enemy arrived with the pandemic. No, diabetes had long danced in my bloodstream, chuckling as I downed beers in smoky taverns. What I called me-time was, in fact, a slow suicide. I drove while low on sugar, thinking I was only tipsy. I crashed into a gate in Sunnyside, barely avoiding the wrath of a mob thanks to a security guard who knew the signs. He had seen this sugar demon before, in his own brother's eyes. Years before that, I blacked out at the wheel and took out an electricity pole. Darkness descended on the neighbourhood, but it was the light of truth that hit me hardest: I had to stop drinking and driving. Four years clean now, 12 months without a car, but still I fight for control of this body. Medical A-team This is despite having a medical A-team, including a GP, endocrinologist, dietician, and private medical aid; I remain a man under siege. Diabetes is a cunning general. You never win. You negotiate, you stall, you beg. It requires 'unconditional surrender' to its management routine. My leader, this is not a lifestyle issue. This is war. Thus, we must do more than count corpses and preach wellness from podiums. We must fight for newer medicine that lasts the month, clinics that open on weekends, and nurses who do not yawn through their shifts. We need political will, not wellness seminars. Unfortunately, the war is here. It is in my blood. It is scorching our land. Let me tell you, my leader, there is hope, though. The science community is united in fighting diabetes and its twin evil, obesity. This week at the ADA Congress, Novo Nordisk, the Danish healthcare giant, released fresh results from the Step-Up trial in Chicago. The trial, led by Novo Nordisk and international researchers, tested a higher dose of semaglutide — the active ingredient in the weight loss drugs Wegovy and the type 2 diabetes injectable Ozempic — on people living with obesity but without diabetes. The results show that this 7.2 milligramme dose delivered an average weight loss of 21% over 72 weeks, with a third of participants shedding at least 25% of their body weight. The safety profile remained consistent with that of previous semaglutide trials, with most side-effects being mild to moderate gastrointestinal issues that resolved over time. The Danish firm now plans to file for a label update in the European Union and other markets where Wegovy is approved. I have asked: When is South Africa's turn? Soon. I am told. Why is the scientific community so fixated on obesity, you ask? The answer lies in the complex relationship between health and suffering that links obesity to diabetes. Scientists aren't merely chasing accolades or enriching their pockets through suffering; they are pursuing the root cause of the diabetes epidemic. The link between obesity and this deadly disease is the scientific gospel. The results released this week serve as a stark reminder that, in the battle against diabetes, the war must be fought first on the battlefield of obesity. Novo Nordisk is not just selling a drug; it is offering hope, a lifeline to those drowning in the flood of excess weight and its deadly consequence, uncontrolled diabetes, like me. Instead of hosting dialogues and unveiling the Eminent Persons Group, we should focus on reforming the healthcare system and working closely with scientists to fast-track the introduction of new, life-saving drugs into our public health system. If not for me, please do it for MaMlambo, a faith healer who gave of herself to save humanity and 5.6 million people facing death daily. Till next week, my man — send me to a clinical trial near me. DM
