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Economic Times
10-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Reliance Industries shares recede after testing 52-week high range: Is it a breather or trend reversal?
After staging a sharp 24% rally in 2025 and nearing record highs, shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) have begun to retreat, a move that comes amid growing investor unease over delayed IPO timelines and signs of near-term fatigue on the charts. The stock, once within 1% of its 52-week peak, has now slipped nearly 6% from that level, raising the question: is this a healthy pause or the start of a trend reversal? ADVERTISEMENT On Thursday, July 10, RIL shares were trading 0.7% lower at Rs 1,508.10 on the BSE. The slide comes just a day after the stock fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, July 9, following a Reuters report that Reliance Jio Platforms had shelved its widely anticipated IPO for 2025, with Reliance Retail's listing also pushed further out. While long-term fundamentals remain intact, powered by a pivot to green energy and rising Street targets, the short-term picture is looking more clouded. Despite the pullback, RIL remains above six of its eight key simple moving averages, signalling bullish momentum over the medium term. However, it has slipped below its 5-day and 10-day SMAs, indicating bearish undertones in the immediate short-term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62.2, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD, at 29.3, continues to hover above both the center and signal lines, reinforcing a broadly positive trend. The recent cooling in the stock follows a report on July 9 that said Reliance Jio Platforms, valued at over $100 billion, will not go public this year. The company aims to 'further grow revenue and its subscriber base before hitting the public markets,' said sources quoted in the report. Jefferies and IIFL peg Jio's valuation at $136 billion and $111 billion, setback has compounded concerns around Reliance Retail's listing, which is now unlikely before 2027 or 2028. Operational challenges and underwhelming metrics like earnings per square foot have prompted RIL to restructure its Rs 11,500 crore FMCG business into a standalone unit called New Reliance Consumer Products Ltd. According to the NCLT's June 25 order, the move aims to bring 'specialised and focused attention' to the business and attract 'a different set of investors.' Brokerages, however, remain bullish on RIL's longer-term prospects. Nuvama has assigned the Street's highest target of Rs 1,801, citing the company's aggressive New Energy push. RIL has operationalised its first 1GW Heterojunction Technology (HJT) solar module line and plans to scale this to 10GW by early 2026. ADVERTISEMENT 'RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of $20bn, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL — similar to the trend seen post-RJIO's launch in 2017,' wrote Nuvama's Jal Irani and others. The brokerage expects New Energy's PAT to grow at a 140% CAGR over FY26–30, contributing 9% of total PAT by FY30. CLSA, which has a Rs 1,650 target on the stock, sees the upcoming Q1FY26 results later this month as a potential catalyst. 'Reliance Industries is entering into an exciting period, beginning with its 1QFY26 earnings, where we expect to see notable improvements in KPIs across its key businesses,' said analyst Vikash Kumar Jain. ADVERTISEMENT Jio added 2.6 million mobile subscribers in April, and broadband additions, including AirFiber, could total 9–10 million in Q1, surpassing the full-year FY25 count. Meanwhile, operational streamlining in retail is expected to translate into high-teens EBITDA growth, and CLSA's gross refining margin (GRM) tracker points to a sequential gain of $1.1/bbl in the Oil-to-Chemicals Reliance's recent pullback marks the start of a longer consolidation or simply a breather ahead of fresh catalysts will likely depend on how the July earnings and New Energy ramp-up unfold in the months ahead. ADVERTISEMENT Also read | Reliance shares fall 2% as Jio IPO pushed beyond 2025, retail listing delayed further (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Economic Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
4 reasons why Reliance Industries shares could rally up to 18%
Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India's most valued company, could surge as much as 18% from current levels, driven by strong prospects in its new energy ventures, an expected rebound across key business verticals, and bullish technical signals. ADVERTISEMENT Analysts at brokerages including Nuvama and CLSA have cited multiple tailwinds that may power the next leg of the stock's rally, with target prices ranging from Rs 1,650 to as high as Rs 1,801. The stock was trading at Rs 1,518.65 on the BSE on Wednesday, July 2, down 0.6%. While RIL shares have underperformed over the last one year, falling 2.7%, they have rebounded smartly in recent months, gaining 24.4% in the last six months, 21.2% in the last three months, and 4.7% in the past week alone. Nuvama has assigned the highest Street target of Rs 1,801 for Reliance, citing a potential re-rating similar to the one seen after the 2017 Jio launch. The firm's optimism stems from RIL's aggressive push in the New Energy space, particularly in solar its recent analyst meeting, RIL announced the operationalisation of its first 1GW Heterojunction Technology (HJT) module manufacturing line, which will eventually scale to a fully integrated 10GW capacity by early calendar year 2026. Nuvama's channel checks suggest RIL has already begun offering these modules in the domestic market, even before its power generation arm goes live."RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of $20bn, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL—similar to the trend seen post-RJIO's launch in 2017. RIL's New Energy rollout shall not only add 50%-plus to PAT, but also rerate valuations, including the O2C business given its net zero-carbon target by 2035," said Nuvama analysts Jal Irani and others. ADVERTISEMENT The brokerage estimates profit after tax (PAT) from the New Energy segment, including modules and power, to grow from Rs 20 billion in FY27 to Rs 114 billion by FY30, a compound annual growth rate of 140% over FY26–30. The share of New Energy in total PAT could hit 9% by FY30 under conservative assumptions, with a faster ramp-up potentially delivering further upside. On the charts, RIL is showing strong bullish undertones. The stock is currently trading above all its key simple moving averages — 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day — suggesting strength across both short-term and long-term time frames. ADVERTISEMENT Momentum indicators support this view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 70.6, in overbought territory, which typically signals strong buying pressure, albeit with a possibility of a short-term pullback. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 25.6 and remains above both the center and signal lines, further reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. ADVERTISEMENT According to CLSA, Reliance is entering a critical earnings cycle, starting with its first-quarter results (Q1FY26) expected later in July. The brokerage sees this as a turning point following a subdued FY25."Reliance Industries is entering into an exciting period, beginning with its 1QFY26 earnings, where we expect to see notable improvements in KPIs across its key businesses," CLSA analyst Vikash Kumar Jain said, maintaining an 'outperform' rating and a target price of Rs 1,650, implying a 8.6% potential upside. ADVERTISEMENT CLSA believes that last year's drag was primarily due to operational streamlining in retail, which has now concluded. The brokerage expects Reliance Retail to report high-teens EBITDA growth year-on-year from Q1 telecom, Jio added 2.6 million mobile subscribers in April 2025 alone, as per TRAI data. Jain noted that broadband subscriber additions, including AirFiber, could lead to 9–10 million new subscribers in Q1, more than the total 6 million added in all of CLSA's GRM (gross refining margin) marker indicates a quarter-on-quarter gain of $1.1/bbl, which could boost profitability in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment. RIL's upcoming annual general meeting, expected in August or September, is likely to be a key event for investors. CLSA believes the AGM could provide updates on a possible Jio IPO, along with developments in the quick commerce, FMCG, and new energy businesses. "Accordingly, watch out for the upcoming AGM in August/September. We are raising the SotP-based target price to Rs 1,801, highest on Street, to factor in the potential for higher-than-than-expected module profits; reiterate 'buy'," Nuvama the 2024 AGM, RIL had announced its ambition to increase the New Energy segment's PAT contribution to over 50% by 2030. Nuvama expects additional New Energy businesses, including a planned 30GWh battery facility, electrolyser manufacturing via a partnership with Nel ASA, and 55 upcoming compressed biogas (CBG) plants, to contribute in a phased manner. While RIL shares have already gained over 25% in 2025 so far, analysts see more room to run, backed by structural growth in green energy, improving fundamentals in retail and telecom, and key catalysts on the horizon. With the highest target at Rs 1,801, the implied upside from current levels stands at nearly 18%, making the stock one to watch in the coming months. Also read | Solar a Jio moment for Mukesh Ambani? Reliance shares get highest target price (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
India.com
01-07-2025
- Business
- India.com
One more Jio moment for Mukesh Ambani? Reliance Industries shares get highest target price from…, the industry is….
Mukesh Ambani Nuvama has set the highest target price of Rs 1,801 for Reliance Industries (RIL), also claims that solar module production can trigger a re-rating similar to the increase experienced after Reliance Jio's 2017 launch. RIL had announced its first 1 GW HJT module facility which can be scaled to 10 GW by early CY26. The broker also claimed that the production of solar modules can give a re-rating which can match the period after launch of Jio in 2017, reported by Economic Times. At its recent analyst meet, RIL announced the start of its first line of HJT module manufacturing facilities. Nuvama has checked with industry participants and revealed that RIL has offered to sell its HJT modules in the lucrative domestic market. 'RIL's modules business (20 GW capacity) yields an EV of $20 billion, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL, similar to the trend seen post-RJIO's launch in 2017. RIL's New Energy rollout will not only add over 50% to PAT but also re-rate valuations, including the the O2C business, given its net-zero carbon target by 2035,' Nuvama analysts Jal Irani and others said in a note, as reported by ET. Reliance Industries Share Price Target 'Accordingly, watch out for the upcoming AGM in August/September. We are raising the SOTP-based target price to Rs 1,801 the highest on the Street to factor in the potential for higher-than-expected module profits; we reiterate our 'BUY' rating,' Nuvama said. Nuvama Projection On New Energy Sector Brokerage has made some predictions on PAT from the New Energy segment (modules plus power) rising from Rs 20 billion in FY27E to Rs 114 billion by FY30E, implying a 140% CAGR over FY26–30E. 'On our conservative assumptions, the New Energy share in PAT is expected to rise to 9% by FY30E. A faster ramp-up in capacity additions and utilisation could fuel more potential upside than our current numbers indicate. We believe additional businesses in the New Energy segment will also start contributing in a phased manner. This should enable RIL to meet its target of increasing PAT contribution from the New Energy segment to over 50% by 2030, as announced during the AGM in 2024,' it said.
Economic Times
01-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Solar a Jio moment for Mukesh Ambani? Reliance shares get highest target price
Betting that the production of solar modules could trigger a re-rating similar to what occurred in 2017 after the launch of Reliance Jio, domestic brokerage firm Nuvama has issued the highest target price of Rs 1,801 for Reliance Industries (RIL). ADVERTISEMENT At its recent analyst meet, RIL announced the start of its first line of HJT module manufacturing facility with a capacity of 1 GW, which can be scaled up in phases to a fully integrated 10 GW by early CY26. Nuvama's channel checks with key industry participants reveal that RIL has offered to sell its HJT modules in the lucrative domestic market, as the rollout of its power generation business is still some time away. 'RIL's modules business (20 GW capacity) yields an EV of $20 billion, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL, similar to the trend seen post-RJIO's launch in 2017. RIL's New Energy rollout will not only add over 50% to PAT but also re-rate valuations, including the O2C business, given its net-zero carbon target by 2035,' Nuvama analysts Jal Irani and others said in a note.O2C is currently RIL's largest profit base, contributing two-fifths of EBITDA and more than half of attributable PAT. In addition to integrated solar facilities, RIL plans to set up a 30 GWh battery facility. Green hydrogen and electrolyser manufacturing are on track, with the company announcing a technology tie-up with Nel ASA. The company also aims to set up 55 CBG plants. Also Read | Reliance Industries shares at inflection point. 6 reasons why FY26 could be the year of big re-rating ADVERTISEMENT 'Accordingly, watch out for the upcoming AGM in August/September. We are raising the SOTP-based target price to Rs 1,801—the highest on the Street—to factor in the potential for higher-than-expected module profits; we reiterate our 'BUY' rating,' Nuvama done by the brokerage show PAT from the New Energy segment (modules plus power) rising from Rs 20 billion in FY27E to Rs 114 billion by FY30E, implying a 140% CAGR over FY26–30E. ADVERTISEMENT 'On our conservative assumptions, the New Energy share in PAT is expected to rise to 9% by FY30E. A faster ramp-up in capacity additions and utilisation could fuel more potential upside than our current numbers indicate. We believe additional businesses in the New Energy segment will also start contributing in a phased manner. This should enable RIL to meet its target of increasing PAT contribution from the New Energy segment to over 50% by 2030, as announced during the AGM in 2024,' it note also drew comparisons with Waaree Energies and Premier, whose EVs stand at around $10 billion and $6 billion, respectively. ADVERTISEMENT RIL's 20 GW fully integrated solar equipment manufacturing facility could potentially translate into a much higher and Premier are trading at 14x and 15x FY27E EV/EBITDA multiples, respectively. Ascribing a 15x EV/EBITDA multiple to RIL's modules business (20 GW capacity) yields an EV of $20 billion, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL's stock—similar to the trend seen after RJIO's launch in 2017. RIL's New Energy rollout is expected not only to add over 50% to PAT but also to re-rate valuations across the business, including the O2C segment, given its net zero-carbon target by 2035, the brokerage said. RIL shares were trading 1.25% higher at Rs 1,519 on the BSE and are up over 24% so far in the calendar year 2025. ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
01-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Solar a Jio moment for Mukesh Ambani? Reliance shares get highest target price
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Betting that the production of solar modules could trigger a re-rating similar to what occurred in 2017 after the launch of Reliance Jio, domestic brokerage firm Nuvama has issued the highest target price of Rs 1,801 for Reliance Industries (RIL).At its recent analyst meet, RIL announced the start of its first line of HJT module manufacturing facility with a capacity of 1 GW, which can be scaled up in phases to a fully integrated 10 GW by early channel checks with key industry participants reveal that RIL has offered to sell its HJT modules in the lucrative domestic market, as the rollout of its power generation business is still some time away.'RIL's modules business (20 GW capacity) yields an EV of $20 billion, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL, similar to the trend seen post-RJIO's launch in 2017. RIL's New Energy rollout will not only add over 50% to PAT but also re-rate valuations, including the O2C business, given its net-zero carbon target by 2035,' Nuvama analysts Jal Irani and others said in a note.O2C is currently RIL's largest profit base, contributing two-fifths of EBITDA and more than half of attributable PAT. In addition to integrated solar facilities, RIL plans to set up a 30 GWh battery facility. Green hydrogen and electrolyser manufacturing are on track, with the company announcing a technology tie-up with Nel ASA. The company also aims to set up 55 CBG plants.'Accordingly, watch out for the upcoming AGM in August/September. We are raising the SOTP-based target price to Rs 1,801—the highest on the Street—to factor in the potential for higher-than-expected module profits; we reiterate our 'BUY' rating,' Nuvama done by the brokerage show PAT from the New Energy segment (modules plus power) rising from Rs 20 billion in FY27E to Rs 114 billion by FY30E, implying a 140% CAGR over FY26–30E.'On our conservative assumptions, the New Energy share in PAT is expected to rise to 9% by FY30E. A faster ramp-up in capacity additions and utilisation could fuel more potential upside than our current numbers indicate. We believe additional businesses in the New Energy segment will also start contributing in a phased manner. This should enable RIL to meet its target of increasing PAT contribution from the New Energy segment to over 50% by 2030, as announced during the AGM in 2024,' it note also drew comparisons with Waaree Energies and Premier, whose EVs stand at around $10 billion and $6 billion, 20 GW fully integrated solar equipment manufacturing facility could potentially translate into a much higher and Premier are trading at 14x and 15x FY27E EV/EBITDA multiples, respectively. Ascribing a 15x EV/EBITDA multiple to RIL's modules business (20 GW capacity) yields an EV of $20 billion, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL's stock—similar to the trend seen after RJIO's launch in 2017. RIL's New Energy rollout is expected not only to add over 50% to PAT but also to re-rate valuations across the business, including the O2C segment, given its net zero-carbon target by 2035, the brokerage said. RIL shares were trading 1.25% higher at Rs 1,519 on the BSE and are up over 24% so far in the calendar year 2025.
