Latest news with #JamesRobards
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Map shows how much your local area will grow in population by 2032
Population growth in the UK is believed to be slowing down due to a drop in migration, figures suggest. According to figures released in January by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population was projected to increase by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032. However, this has now been revised to the new figure of 5.9%, after the ONS said its short-term projections were 'running too high' due to a lack of net migration data. With migration being the main driver of population growth, the ONS has now adjusted its initial projection to the new figure of 5.9%. Areas like Ipswich in Suffolk and Gosport in Hampshire are projected to see drops in population – but some local areas in London will see an increase of 20%, or even up to 50%. James Robards, ONS head of population and household projections, said the latest changes reflect 'the challenge in projecting the path from unprecedented levels of international migration seen over recent years to a lower long-term average figure and the uncertainty over the speed of decrease'. The City of London is the area projected to have the fastest grown, with a projected population increase of 48.6% from mid-2022 to mid-2032. However, this reflects its small base population, growing from 11,457 to 17,023. Tower Hamlets in London follows closely, with an expected 20.4% rise. South Derbyshire is another high-growth areas, with a projected 19.2% increase, while Stratford-upon-Avon in Warwickshire is projected to see a 17.4% surge. Some 47 local authorities are projected to grow by at least 10% over the decade, according to the ONS. Use the interactive map below to tap on your area and find out more about its population. As of mid-2023, the UK's population stood at an estimated 68.3 million, according to the ONS. This represents an increase of 1% from the previous year. By mid-2027 – five year after the last estimates from the ONS – the population is projected to reach approximately 70.2 million, a rise of 2.6 million (3.8%). By mid-2032 it's expected to hit 72.5 million, an increase of 4.9 million (7.3%) from 2022. This growth is driven almost entirely by net migration, estimated at 4.9 million over the 10-year period, as natural change – births minus deaths – is projected to be close to zero, with a similar number of births and deaths in the UK. England is expected to see the fastest growth at 7.8%, followed by Wales (5.9%), Scotland (4.4%), and Northern Ireland (2.1%). The figures assume net migration stabilises at 340,000 per year from mid-2028, though the ONS cautions that actual migration levels may vary due to policy changes or unforeseen trends. City of London 48.6% (mid-2022 11,457; mid-2032 17,023) Tower Hamlets 20.4% (mid-2022 323,854; mid-2032 389,845) South Derbyshire 19.2% (mid-2022 111,145; mid-2032 132,463) Stratford-on-Avon 17.4% (mid-2022 138,573; mid-2032 162,678) North West Leicestershire 15.8% (mid-2022 107,666; mid-2032 124,628) South Norfolk 15.5% (mid-2022 144,617; mid-2032 166,982) Salford 15.2% (mid-2022 278,867; mid-2032 321,347) Tewkesbury 15.0% (mid-2022 97,032; mid-2032 111,619) Vale of White Horse 14.9% (mid-2022 142,335; mid-2032 163,566) Harborough 14.4% (mid-2022 100,550; mid-2032 115,004)
The Independent
24-06-2025
- Business
- The Independent
UK population projected to grow at slower rate because of drop in migration
The UK population is projected to grow at a slower rate than previously stated, because of a sharp drop in the estimated level of migration. Initial figures published in January by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested the population was projected to increase by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032. This has been revised to the new figure of 5.9%, after the ONS said its short-term projections were 'running too high'. Net migration to the UK – the difference between the number of people moving long term to the country and the number leaving – is estimated to have halved from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000 in 2024, the ONS said in May. But this data was not available when the ONS made its first population projections at the start of this year. As migration is the main driver of population growth, the ONS has now adjusted its principal projection. The population of England is also projected to grow at a slower rate than previously stated, rising by 6.4% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with the previous projection of 7.8%. The ONS said the new figures are 'a better reflection of short-term population change'. Projections are not forecasts or predictions and do not take into account what may or may not happen in the future. They are instead based on current and past trends, and as those trends change, the projections are adjusted accordingly. James Robards, ONS head of population and household projections, said the latest changes reflect 'the challenge in projecting the path from unprecedented levels of international migration seen over recent years to a lower long-term average figure and the uncertainty over the speed of decrease. 'Although in the long term we project annual UK net migration will settle around the 340,000 mark, in the short term our national projections were running too high.' The new figures also include population projections for local areas in England. They show the population is projected to rise between mid-2022 and mid-2032 in 302 of 309 local authorities. The fastest growing areas include Tower Hamlets in London (up 20.4%), South Derbyshire (up 19.2%), Stratford-upon-Avon in Warwickshire (up 17.4%) and North West Leicestershire (up 15.8%). Some 47 local authorities are projected to see a population increase of at least 10%. The City of London is projected to grow by 48.6%, but the size of change reflects the very low population in this area, at just 11,457 in mid-2022 and 17,023 in mid-2032. Seven areas are projected to see a fall in population over the period, including Gosport in Hampshire (down 2.1%), Copeland in Cumbria (down 1.9%) and Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria (down 1.7%). The ONS local area projections are based on local authority boundaries in 2021. Copeland is now part of the larger local authority of Cumberland, while Barrow-in-Furness is part of Westmorland & Furness. 'The drivers behind the projected population increase vary significantly by area,' James Robards added. 'In many local authorities, growth is mainly driven by internal migration. 'Internal migration of young people would furthermore contribute to the number of projected births. 'However, in many urban areas growth is driven by net international migration.'
Yahoo
28-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UK population to soar to 72.5million by 2032 due to net migration rise, ONS says
The UK population is set to soar by nearly five million over the course of a decade due to net migration, according to new ONS figures. The population is predicted to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032, up from 67.6 million in mid-2022, driven almost entirely by net migration, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. England's population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8 per cent, compared with 5.9 per cent for Wales. In Scotland, the population will increase by 4.4 per cent over the same period, and by 2.1 per cent in Northern Ireland. The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9 million, a jump of 13.2 per cent. This is lower than the previous 25 years from 1997 to 2022, when the population is estimated to have risen by 9.3 million, or 15.9 per cent. The number of births and deaths across the period is projected to be almost identical, with about 6.8 million births offset by 6.8 million deaths. While births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are also projected to rise due to the relatively large number of people reaching older ages who were born during the 'baby boom' following the Second World War. The level of net migration is projected to average 340,000 per year from mid-2028 onwards, lower than current levels. James Robards, ONS head of population and household projections, said: 'The UK population is projected to grow by almost five million over the next decade. 'The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero. 'These projections are based on current and past trends, and aren't forecasts about what may or may not happen in the future. 'Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3 million by 2047. 'This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.'
Yahoo
28-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Net migration could see UK population reach 72.5 million by 2032
The UK population could grow by almost five million over the next decade to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032 because of net migration, figures suggest. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects the rise from 67.6 million in mid-2022 will be driven almost entirely by net migration, with the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country estimated to total 4.9 million over the 10-year period. This is compared to the natural change in population – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be 'around zero'. The data, published on Tuesday, assumes the level of net migration will average 340,000 a year from mid-2028 onwards, lower than current levels. The number of births compared to the number of deaths across the period is estimated to be almost identical – 6.8 million. While births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are also projected to rise due to the relatively large number of people reaching older ages who were born during the so-called baby boom in the wake of the Second World War. Use our new UK population projection explorer to adjust factors such as life expectancy, average children per woman and net migration to see what impact each could have on the future population 🔎 — Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 28, 2025 The estimates mean the overall UK population is projected to rise by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years. James Robards, from the ONS, said: 'The UK population is projected to grow by almost five million over the next decade. The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero. 'Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3 million by 2047. This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.' The population of the UK is projected to increase by 4.9 million (7.3%) over the first 10 years of our latest population projections (2022-based): • from an estimated 67.6 million in mid-2022• to an estimated 72.5 million in mid-2032 Read more➡️ — Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 28, 2025 Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp described the projection as 'shocking and unacceptable', adding: 'It can and must be stopped from materialising' as he called for a 'hard binding legal cap on visas issued each year'. England's population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland. The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9 million, a jump of 13.2%. This is lower than the previous 25 years from 1997 to 2022, when the population is estimated to have risen by 9.3 million, or 15.9%. In a new blog post, James Robards explains how the latest projections incorporate the most up to date information we have available, why variant projections are so important and how our historic projections compare with population — Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 28, 2025 The number of people at state pension age – taking into account the planned rise to 67 – is projected to rise by 1.7 million between mid-2022 and mid-2032, up from an estimated 12.0 million to 13.7 million people. By mid-2032 more than one in 10 (10.3%) of the UK population are projected to be aged 75 and over, compared with about one in 11 (9.1%) in mid-2022. The ONS stressed the figures are projections – not predictions or forecasts – because they are based on current and past trends and there is always a level of uncertainty over how the numbers could change as time goes on.
The Independent
28-01-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Net migration could see UK population reach 72.5 million by 2032
The UK population could grow by almost five million over the next decade to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032 because of net migration, figures suggest. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects the rise from 67.6 million in mid-2022 will be driven almost entirely by net migration, with the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country estimated to total 4.9 million over the 10-year period. This is compared to the natural change in population – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be 'around zero'. The data, published on Tuesday, assumes the level of net migration will average 340,000 a year from mid-2028 onwards, lower than current levels. The number of births compared to the number of deaths across the period is estimated to be almost identical – 6.8 million. While births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are also projected to rise due to the relatively large number of people reaching older ages who were born during the so-called baby boom in the wake of the Second World War. The estimates mean the overall UK population is projected to rise by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years. James Robards, from the ONS, said: 'The UK population is projected to grow by almost five million over the next decade. The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero. 'Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3 million by 2047. This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.' Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp described the projection as 'shocking and unacceptable', adding: 'It can and must be stopped from materialising' as he called for a 'hard binding legal cap on visas issued each year'. England's population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland. The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9 million, a jump of 13.2%. This is lower than the previous 25 years from 1997 to 2022, when the population is estimated to have risen by 9.3 million, or 15.9%. The number of people at state pension age – taking into account the planned rise to 67 – is projected to rise by 1.7 million between mid-2022 and mid-2032, up from an estimated 12.0 million to 13.7 million people. By mid-2032 more than one in 10 (10.3%) of the UK population are projected to be aged 75 and over, compared with about one in 11 (9.1%) in mid-2022. The ONS stressed the figures are projections – not predictions or forecasts – because they are based on current and past trends and there is always a level of uncertainty over how the numbers could change as time goes on.
