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First Post
5 days ago
- Business
- First Post
Is Trump giving Putin reasons to believe he's ‘weak'? Russia expert explains Ukraine U-turns
Despite supporters hailing the '50-day ultimatum' to Vladimir Putin and the 'u-turn' with the arms package's announcement, US President Trump has not had any fundamental shift in the Russia-Ukraine war. Instead, he has encouraged the Russian leader to maximise territorial gains to achieve more favorable negotiating positions and push his maximalist demands. read more US President Donald Trump's refusal to punish Vladimir Putin for consistently refusing to make peace has not just allowed Russia to maximise gains on the battlefield but has also risked cementing the United States as a 'weak' party at the world stage. In what his supporters hailed as an ultimatum, Trump on Monday announced he could impose 100 per cent tariff on Russia if Putin would not reach a deal to end the war in the next 50 days. Far from an ultimatum, Trump essentially allowed Putin a free reign on the battlefield for 50 days. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD For weeks, it had been known that Putin had been preparing for a major summer offensive to maximise gains on the ground. He told the same to Trump. Per Axios, Putin told Trump during on July 3 that he would launch maximise territorial gains in the ground offensive in the next 60 days. The 60th day will be September 1. As per Trump's announcement, he will wait until the 50th day starting Monday —Sept. 3— to impose any tariff. This means that Trump will wait until after the conclusion of Russian ground offensive to take any action, giving Putin a license to maximise his gains and kill Ukrainians at will in aerial attacks. Trump encourages Putin to maximise gains on ground While it is encouraging that President Trump appears to have begun to grasp that the only factor capable of influencing Vladimir Putin is force or a credible threat of force, the Monday's announcement does not suggest any real change in his approach, says Kseniya Kirillova, a Russia analyst at Washington DC-based Jamestown Foundation. Kirillova tells Firstpost, 'It seems that President Trump is once again demonstrating inconsistency and offering Putin an opportunity to achieve gains on the battlefield. Given that Russia has long made clear its reliance on a summer offensive to secure more favorable negotiating positions, President Trump's stance effectively hands Putin just such an opening. Therefore, I cannot yet conclude that President Trump's position on Russia has fundamentally changed.' Putin is likely to interpret Trump's inconsistency as a sign of weakness and feel emboldened about the summer offensive. 'Vladimir Putin interprets any concession as weakness and therefore seeks to extract the maximum possible advantage for himself,' says Kirillova. Russia can sustain the war on Ukraine — but Putin has chinks in armour By all accounts, Putin does not see a reason to make peace at the moment — particularly after getting the 50-day window from Trump to hit Ukraine with everything he has got. And Putin has got a lot to hit Ukraine with. Even as Ukraine's weapons supplies have been disrupted as Europe finds itself unable to provide the best arms and Trump remains non-committal, Russia's allies continue to do everything to ensure its victory: China is keeping Russian economy afloat in every way possible; China is providing Russia not just with raw material and machinery to make weapons but also with military goods like drones; Iran has not just provided Russia with drones but has transferred production know-how; and North Korea has not just provided arms and ammunition but has provided tens of thousands of soldiers as well. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Even as economists agree that the Russian economy, which saw a war-induced boost in 2022, has now stagnated, they maintain that Russia retains sufficient resources to sustain the war at its current intensity for at least two more years. However, the two constraints on Russia are Ukraine's advance capabilities in drone warfare and depleting ranks — the Trump administration has assessed that around 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed this year alone. 'The success of Russia's offensive will largely depend on its ability to shift the balance of power in the drone war. Another key factor is Russia's capacity to replenish its manpower. This is why US military aid will be critical to the outcome of Putin's summer campaign. The scope and urgency of US deliveries will offer a clearer indication of President Trump's true position on the Russia–Ukraine war,' Kirillova, the Russia analyst at Jamestown, tells Firstpost.
Wall Street Journal
25-04-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Schlock Art of the Ukraine Deal
I always guessed the 'Art of the Deal' author would eventually suggest that Russia buy Crimea from Ukraine to legalize its 2014 seizure of the strategic peninsula. Put aside Vladimir Putin's airy fairy rumination on the mystical unity of Ukrainians and Russians. As he admitted days before the current invasion, a practical problem bedeviled Mr. Putin. If a Ukraine drawing closer to the West tried to reclaim Crimea, would Russia be at war with NATO? The U.S. never put the chips on the table seriously to threaten Russia's hold on Crimea, but it still owns a giant and valuable carrot in being able to offer, as a result of negotiation, a path to legalize that hold. One analysis, by the Jamestown Foundation, mentions a figure of $40 billion.
Yahoo
21-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Taiwan's existential battle against Chinese spies
Taiwan faces a growing existential threat from its own people spying for China, experts warn, as the government seeks to toughen measures to stop Beijing's infiltration efforts and deter Taiwanese turncoats. While Beijing and Taipei have been spying on each other for years, experts told AFP that espionage posed a bigger threat to Taiwan due to the risk of a Chinese attack. Taiwan's intelligence agency has said China used "diverse channels and tactics" to infiltrate the island's military, government agencies and pro-China organisations. The main targets were retired and active members of the military, persuaded by money, blackmail or pro-China ideology to steal defence secrets, make vows to surrender to the Chinese military, and set up armed groups to help invading forces. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has long threatened to use force to seize it -- which the Taipei government opposes. While espionage operations were conducted by governments around the world, Jamestown Foundation president Peter Mattis said the threat to Taiwan was far greater. "It's not practiced at this kind of scale, with this kind of malign purpose, and with the ultimate goal being annexation, and as a result, that makes this different," said Mattis, a former CIA counterintelligence analyst. "This is something more fundamental... to the survival of a nation state or a country." The number of people prosecuted in Taiwan for spying for Beijing has risen sharply in recent years, official data show. Taiwan's National Security Bureau said 64 people were prosecuted for Chinese espionage last year, compared with 48 in 2023 and 10 in 2022. In 2024, they included 15 veterans and 28 active service members, with prison sentences reaching as high as 20 years. "In general violations of the National Security Act, the prosecution rate for military personnel is relatively high," said Prosecutor General Hsing Tai-chao, from the Supreme Prosecutors Office. "This is because the military is held to stricter standards due to its duty to safeguard national security and its access to weapons," Hsing told AFP. "This does not mean that ordinary people do not engage in similar activities. The difference is that such actions may not always constitute a criminal offence for ordinary people." - Soldiers and singers - Taiwan and China have a history of political, cultural and educational exchanges due to a shared language, serving up opportunities for Chinese recruiters to cultivate spies. As these exchanges dwindled in recent years due to cross-strait tensions and the Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing has found other ways to infiltrate the island, experts said. China has harnessed criminals, religious temples and online platforms to access Taiwanese retired and active service members, using money and even political propaganda to lure them into spying. Informal banks have offered loans to those in financial difficulty and then wiped their debts in return for information. Others have been recruited through online games. Spies have been asked to share military intelligence, such as the location of bases and stockpiles, or set up armed groups. Taiwan's intelligence agency said China has used "gangsters to recruit retired servicemembers to organise their former military comrades in establishing 'sniper teams' and to plot sniper missions against Taiwan's military units and foreign embassies". Singers, social media influencers and politicians also have been coerced into doing Beijing's bidding, spreading disinformation, expressing pro-China views or obtaining intel, said Puma Shen, a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker. China's spy network was "growing and growing", said Shen, who has studied Chinese influence operations and was last year sanctioned by Beijing over alleged "separatism". "They're trying to weaken, not just our defence, but the whole democratic system," he said. - Raising awareness - President Lai Ching-te, who also belongs to the DPP, last week branded China a "foreign hostile force", as he proposed measures to combat Chinese espionage and infiltration. Among them were ensuring the transparency of cross-strait exchanges involving elected officials and reinstating military trials during peacetime -- a sensitive issue in Taiwan where martial law was imposed for nearly 40 years. Recent surveys show most Taiwanese people are not in favour of unification with China. But more needs to be done to raise public awareness about the threat Chinese espionage posed to Taiwan, said Jakub Janda of the think tank European Values Center for Security Policy in Taipei. "If you betray your country, this needs to become completely unacceptable," said Janda, who advocates for tougher penalties. "If you have this moodin the society, then it's much harder for Chinese intelligence to actually recruit people." aw-amj/sn/sco
Yahoo
17-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Russian arms makers make big showing at Arab defense fair
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Russia's defense companies are sensing an opening to get back into the global arms market, with Moscow's state-owned firms afforded a prominent display of weaponry here at the IDEX and NAVDEX defense fairs. The massive stand is in contrast to the footprint at recent shows, where Russian arms makers have kept a low profile or – in the case of European exhibitions – weren't admitted at all because of the invasion of Ukraine. With over a dozen Russian exhibitors, many of whom pitched upgraded variants of their weapons, the 2025 IDEX setting was noticeably different from the 2023 edition, when Russian companies were not even listed on the show's official website – though they still had space in a separate pavilion outside the main hall. This time around, Russian exhibitors were placed in one of the busiest halls of the show here, alongside major regional players such as Saudi Arabia's Military Industries and Qatar's Barzan Holdings. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 fundamentally altered its arms export industry, which saw a significant revenue plunge. By the end of 2024, the Washington-based think tank Jamestown Foundation found that Russian weapons transfers had declined by 92% from 2021 levels, primarily due to the redistribution of national resources to support the Ukraine invasion and higher interest rates resulting from international sanctions. Rosoboronexport, the state agency responsible for military trade, has maintained a business-as-usual composure, stating record level of orders for 2024. Weeks before the exhibition here, Russian companies tried to create buzz around new products, reaching out to Western journalists and publishing press releases in English. Among them is the Kalashnikov Group, which announced in mid-January that it would be unveiling a new Kub-2-E strike drone equipped with guided munitions as part of a drone-swarming concept and two new rifle designs. The drones will be deployed by Russian troops from launchers mounted on armored vehicles, designed to target lightly armored military equipment, air defense systems, and helicopter basing sites, per a company press release. According to the Institute of the Study of War, an American research organization for military affairs, Russia's objective in showcasing these technological adaptations here is 'to introduce innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine.' Sam Bendett, advisor at the Washington-based Center for Naval Analyses think tank, said Russian defense companies are increasingly trying to capitalize on the claim of combat-proven equipment in the invasion of Ukraine. Russian officials here also showcased an export variant of the T-90 Proryv main battle tank, which was placed at the centre stage of its pavilion and attracted a significant amount of attention from visitors on the opening day of the show here. It was equipped with different types of protection against first-person-view drones, which have proven increasingly difficult to defend against across the battlefield. Moscow has touted the capabilities of the platform in the Middle East since 2015, with little success. The tanks are reported to have suffered heavy combat losses in Ukraine, with open-source intelligence analysts having recorded at least 124 destroyed, according to the Dutch-based equipment tracking group Oryx.
