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Japan Forward
2 days ago
- Politics
- Japan Forward
JINF Report: China and Russia's Strategic Merger
As geopolitical tensions escalate in multiple theaters, China and Russia continue to strengthen their partnership in ways that contest the existing international norm. A seminar hosted on June 27 by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF) shed light on how the two authoritarian powers are tightening their strategic alignment, both in cyberspace and in conventional military measures. Jun Osawa, a senior fellow at the Nakasone Peace Institute (NPI), spoke on the evolving sophistication of China's cognitive warfare capabilities. "Whereas Beijing's central propaganda machine once fed specific narratives that spread through state media and were later amplified by bloggers and influencers on social media, the method is now becoming more Russian-like," Osawa said. One example is the spread of conspiracy theories surrounding the August 2023 wildfires in Hawaii. A Chinese disinformation operation known as Storm-1376 falsely claimed, using AI-generated images, that the United States government had started the fires using an energy weapon. A May 2023 video of a transformer explosion in Chile was falsely repurposed to depict an explosion preceding the wildfires in Maui. Unlike earlier top-down propaganda efforts, this campaign was decentralized. Osawa likened it to Russia's favorite playbook: exploiting societal fault lines with misinformation and synthetic media to stir social unrest. Storm-1376, reportedly linked to China's Ministry of Public Security, has for years promoted content aimed at discrediting the American democracy and political system. In April 2023, the US Department of Justice filed charges against 34 Chinese officials implicated in related influence campaigns. Beijing's growing cyber infiltration activities are also targeting Japan. Citing a February 2024 report by Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto, Osawa described a China-based network of at least 123 fake news websites posing as local outlets in 30 countries. These sites blend genuine news from other platforms and fabricated articles to distort information ecosystems and advance specific agendas. Homepage of a news site flagged by Citizen Lab as likely operated by Chinese bots and designed to mimic a legitimate local news outlet. In Japan, domains like masquerade as local news outlets, reprinting authentic content while slipping in pro-Beijing fake stories. Since April 2024, websites imitating major Japanese news brands such as Sankei Weekly and Yomiuri Daily have appeared to enhance their credibility. "While the viewership of these sites is still low, like Russia, the purpose is to spread the news on social media as if it's from a neutral and credible source," Osawa said. There are also signs of disinformation being used as a geopolitical lever. On June 1, a prominent Chinese military blogger shared an article that falsely attributed a provocative quote to a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force Commander. In the article, Commander Hiroshi Ito is falsely cited as saying, "If necessary, we will cooperate with Ukraine to launch attacks from both sea and land and recapture the four islands." The Four Islands refer to the Northern Territories, a chain located just off the northeast coast of Hokkaido, which have long been in dispute between Japan and Russia. The four disputed islands in the Northern Territories are Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and the Habomai. (©Public Domain) The post, which garnered a whopping 168 million views, appeared just one day after former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's widow, Akie Abe, met with Vladimir Putin. "Given that a photo of Putin and Akie was placed at the bottom of the news site, it was clearly intended to drive a wedge between Japan and Russia," the NPI researcher said. Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes Akie Abe, the widow of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to the Kremlin with a large bouquet of flowers. Moscow, May 29 (©Sputnik via Reuters) Another tactic used to influence foreign politics is the "hack-and-leak" strategy. In mid-2022, Chinese hackers released partial itineraries of two Taiwanese national security officials, selectively highlighting their off-duty activities such as shopping and dining. They were intended to manipulate public perception and sow distrust among the Taiwanese public toward their government officials. Notably, Osawa explained that these leaks resemble Russia's interference in the 2016 US presidential election. Two Russian hackers at the time breached the Democratic National Committee's servers and exposed information damaging to the Democratic candidate. Turning from cyber to military cooperation, JINF researcher Maki Nakagawa pointed out that since launching joint military exercises in 2012, the scope and intensity of Sino-Russian drills have significantly expanded. In July 2024, for instance, four Chinese naval vessels transited Japan's Soya and Tsugaru Straits en route to the Bering Sea, waters within the US Exclusive Economic Zone. China's navy presence in US territorial waters dates back to 2015, when its vessels entered for the first time following a joint exercise with Russia. US and Canadian fighter jets intercept Chinese H-6 bombers near Alaska on July 24, 2024. (©NORAD) Joint air patrols are also broadening their scope. In that same month, China's H-6K bomber flew alongside a Russian bomber into Alaska's Air Defense Identification Zone. Before the flight, Nakagawa noted that the Chinese aircraft stopped at Anadyr airport in Russia's Far East, reflecting growing logistical interoperability. "Moscow is effectively providing Chinese forces with access to the northern Pacific, allowing it to pressure America's coastal defenses," she said. In turn, Chinese forces are joining Russian troops in joint drills in the Arctic and the Sea of Okhotsk, regions of strategic importance to Moscow. The Sea of Okhotsk includes the contested Northern Territories. The deepening military cooperation between China and Russia places a heavy responsibility on East Asian democracies. Nakagawa, a former Commander of the Basic Intelligence Unit in the Ground Self-Defense Force, warned that Japan must prepare for a "two-front scenario," with Chinese military forces advancing from both the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. China's expanding naval and aerial reach, she said, will inevitably complicate America's ability to respond quickly to crises within the First Island Chain. A Chinese Coast Guard vessel with a helicopter taking off near the Senkakus, afternoon of May 3. (©Japan Coast Guard) Compounding these complexities is "China's enhanced nuclear deterrent, backed by its advancing triad capabilities and ballistic missile early warning system," the JINF researcher added. The implication for Taiwan is also significant. While Beijing is unlikely to seek direct Russian military intervention, Nakagawa said it would expect intelligence sharing, anti-access and area denial A2/AD support, nuclear deterrence, and weapons transfers in the event of a potential Cross-Strait conflict. By observing the real-world use of drones and advanced weaponry in the war in Ukraine, China is seeking to draw lessons from its authoritarian ally across a broad spectrum of domains, extending beyond cyber operations. Author: Kenji Yoshida
Japan Forward
06-06-2025
- Politics
- Japan Forward
JINF Report: Is China's Senkaku Takeover Ever Closer?
このページを 日本語 で読む The Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF), chaired by Yoshiko Sakurai, analyzed and assessed the Chinese helicopter that violated Japanese airspace on May 3 near the Senkaku Islands (Ishigaki City, Okinawa Prefecture). JINF, a private think tank, urged the Japanese government to take action, warning that China ultimately "aims to land on the Senkakus." Japanese experts also raised concerns that Japan is being drawn into China's cognitive warfare, a strategy to shape public opinion through disinformation. This article summarizes the key points discussed during JINF's briefing session on May 30. At approximately 12:21 PM on May 3, a Chinese helicopter violated Japanese airspace for about 15 minutes, prompting the Japan Air Self-Defense Force to conduct an emergency scramble in response. Just minutes earlier, at 12:18 PM, the Chinese Coast Guard vessel 2303, which was carrying the helicopter, had entered Japanese territorial waters. Around the same time, a Japanese civilian aircraft that departed from New Ishigaki Airport approached the airspace near the Senkakus. Following guidance from the Japanese Coast Guard, the plane turned around at around 12:20 PM, approximately 20 kilometers south of Uotsuri Island. Maki Nakagawa, a researcher at the JINF, outlined the sequence of events surrounding the airspace violation. She suggested that China "may have obtained advance knowledge of the Japanese civilian aircraft's flight plan and used that information to decide when to raise the ladder by deploying the helicopter for an air patrol over the Senkakus." Nakagawa added that it appears preparations were made in advance based on that information. If the Chinese side had indeed accessed Japan's civilian flight patterns in advance, that would be a serious concern in itself. This indicates that the airspace violation was not accidental but rather a carefully coordinated operation. A Chinese helicopter violating Japanese airspace on May 3, 2025. (Photo provided by the 11th Regional Coast Guard Headquarters, Naha, Okinawa) After the airspace violation, the China Coast Guard, along with the Chinese foreign ministry and defense ministry, released coordinated statements. They claimed that "a Japanese civilian aircraft had violated the airspace over Diaoyu Island (Chinese name for Senkakus)." The three agencies argued, "It is entirely lawful to take necessary enforcement actions, including issuing a warning to drive the aircraft away." Nakagawa noted that China's statements seek to "assert sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands and legitimize [Chinese] actions under international law." In other words, "China is engaging in a cognitive warfare campaign against Japan by trying to frame the situation as if it were Japan that provoked a violation of Chinese airspace." Kiyofumi Iwata, a member of the JINF and former chief of staff of the Ground Self-Defense Force, also warned that Chinese cognitive warfare is beginning to influence Japanese public perception. Some observers have raised the possibility of a simultaneous Chinese invasion of Taiwan and a landing on the Senkakus. Iwata pointed out that Admiral John Aquilino, Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, has described China's military exercises around Taiwan since 2024 as a "rehearsal" for a future invasion. Referring to former government officials and experts who spoke to the media about China's recent airspace violation, Iwata said, "Even at this stage, there are still those who claim Japan provoked China's breach of sovereignty." To this, he added, "They have completely fallen into China's cognitive warfare trap, and it's a truly regrettable situation." "As far as I can recall, Chinese coast guard helicopters have been approaching for some time. But they had never [violated our airspace]," said Kazuhisa Shimada, former Vice Minister of Defense and ex-secretary to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. "The fact that they did so this time suggests they may now believe Japan's response will not be strong enough to deter them. And that is deeply concerning." Shimada's comments reveal Japan had been caught off guard. Ten days after the airspace violation, on May 13, Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya held a press conference and stated that he had protested to China. He repeatedly called the recent incursion into Japan's territorial waters and the violation of its airspace "extremely regrettable." However, he did not announce any new measures in response to China's unprecedented actions. As Shimada pointed out, such a lack of concrete action could very well embolden China to act even more aggressively. There is a view that China is gradually increasing pressure through a "salami slicing tactic," steadily making incremental moves like slicing a salami. "If you ask which side the salami is on, it's Japan," warned Retired Vice Admiral Masanori Yoshida. "But the salami has already been sliced, and the next thing to be cut is our hand." The implication is that the salami is gone, and China's next objective is to set foot on the Senkakus. Iwata concurred, saying, "The salami slicing is over, and we must recognize that the only phase left is a landing." He emphasized the need for the government to secure effective control of the Senkakus and to strengthen the Air Self-Defense Force's response capabilities. Iwata proposed conducting joint Japan-US training exercises on Kuba Island (private property) and Taisho Island (state property). These islands are located approximately 27 kilometers and 110 kilometers, respectively, from Uotsuri Island in the Senkakus. Iwata also recommended establishing an Air Self-Defense Force base at Shimoji Island Airport in Miyakojima City, Okinawa Prefecture. The former chief of staff further stressed the importance of clearly demonstrating Japan's "will and ability" to defend its sovereignty over the Senkakus to China. He expressed serious concern about the response from the Ishiba administration, questioning, "Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, as head of state, has yet to make his intentions clear. Is this acceptable?" Author: Takao Harakawa このページを 日本語 で読む
