Latest news with #JayPelosky
Axios
30-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trump trade whiplash sends investors abroad
While bulls are cheering the stock market record, it's flimsy compared with gains in the rest of the world. Why it matters: President Trump's flip-flop on trade with Canada last Friday is the type of policy volatility foundational to the Sell America trade, which is still driving gains in markets outside of the U.S Strategists see more room to run in the shift to international stocks. By the numbers: Take a look at the performance of some foreign indices year to date. The German DAX is up 20%. The Chinese Hang Seng Index is up 24%. Even Canadian stocks are mildly outpacing U.S. gains, up nearly 7% this year compared to the 5% gain in the S&P 500. What they're saying: A rotation out of the U.S. into the rest of the world, particularly to Europe and individual countries offering stimulative economic policies, is the consensus for the second half of this year. "The U.S. itself no longer the safe haven that it was in the past 20 years," says Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisors. It's not just that the U.S. is fading. The "aggressive fiscal stimulus" adopted by the rest of the world is set to drive further earnings growth elsewhere, he says. Yes, but: Thanks to big tech, most banks have maintained an overweight rating on both U.S. and European stocks through year end. About half of the gains in the S&P are driven by large-cap tech names. You don't have to believe in the entire U.S. to own the S&P. You may just have to believe in the tech trade. That trade is expected to be buoyed by continued earnings growth, cushioned by declines in the U.S. dollar.
Axios
26-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
Wall Street bulls up for the second half of 2025
From JPMorgan to HSBC, big banks are rushing to strike a more optimistic tone in their midyear outlooks, with the stock market more than recovered from its April lows. Why it matters: Strategists are looking past the geopolitical risks and focusing on what really drives stocks: earnings growth. That view is largely expected to continue this year despite tariff-driven uncertainty. By the numbers: Of a sampling of 14 firms offering price targets on the S&P 500, only five forecast a year-end level below 6,000. Based on current levels, that means most strategists see stocks rising for the rest of 2025. What they're saying: The latest moves in the S&P 500, and tech stocks in particular, are a signal that "everything that happened as a result of tariffs and Liberation Day has kind of been brushed to the side," according to Jay Woods, chief global strategist with Freedom Capital Markets. Zoom in: Three big themes are driving the bulls. Belief in solid earnings growth, which Morgan Stanley expects to remain in the high single digits, and which Bank of America views as driven by consumer resilience. Conviction in the artificial intelligence trade, validated this week by Nvidia closing at a new record yesterday. For better or worse, the "TACO" trade remains, and market participants are largely convinced that tariff deals are coming. Yes, but: Three big risks remain for investors. Market breadth is still an issue, JPMorgan expects narrow leadership that mirrors the big tech rallies of 2023 and 2024. Can rising tech stocks lift all market boats forever? The U.S. dollar is down nearly 10% so far this year, a potential signal that global investors are pulling back from American assets. The 90-day tariff pause deadline is just two weeks away, and there are hardly any deals. What we're watching: Not all investors are ready to move past the tariff-driven uncertainty in the economy. Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, is overweight non-U.S. equities and sees more upside in regions expecting stimulus-driven growth like Europe.
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
TPW's Pelosky Warns of Capital Repatriation Out of US
"We are early in a secular change of leadership away from US equities," TPW Investment Management CIO Jay Pelosky says on "Bloomberg The Close." Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
09-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
TPW's Pelosky Warns of Capital Repatriation Out of US
"We are early in a secular change of leadership away from US equities," TPW Investment Management CIO Jay Pelosky says on "Bloomberg The Close." (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
05-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Full Show: Balance of Power 03/04/25
"Balance of Power" focuses on the intersection of politics and global business. On today's show, TPW Advisory Principal and founder Jay Pelosky says global equity leadership is moving away from the US. Representative Jennifer McClellan (D) Virginia, shares her thoughts on President Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada going into effect today and the proposed agriculture tariffs that will go into effect in April. Rep. Darin LaHood (R) Illinois, discusses how President Trump should talk about what he's been able to do so far for the American people during his address to Congress. (Source: Bloomberg)
