Latest news with #JeffSchulze
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock-market investors went from panic to ‘Goldilocks.' Are they getting ahead of themselves?
Tariffs? Deficits? So what? Stock-market investors who were in full-fledged panic just three months ago in the wake of President Donald Trump's 'liberation day' unveiling of sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners went into the long Fourth of July weekend with the S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP in record territory. That's even with a 90-day pause on those tariffs due to expire on Wednesday. 'I'm single': At 70, I have $500,000 in stocks and $220,000 in savings. How do I invest my $130,000 windfall? 'Today is my 61st birthday': I have my ex-spouse's Social Security benefits. Should I retire at 65 and travel? 'Finance makes me break out in hives': I inherited $240K from my parents. Do I pay off my $258K mortgage and give up my job? My wife and I are in our late 60s. Do I sell stocks to pay our $30,000 credit-card debt — or do it gradually over 3 years? My job is offering me a payout. Should I take a $61,000 lump sum — or $355 a month for life? 'The direction of travel for tariffs has really been one way over the last couple months, which has been a positive direction,' Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, with $180.4 billion in assets under management, told MarketWatch. Stocks stumbled hard after the April 2 tariff announcement, with the S&P 500 finishing nearly 19% below its February record and on the cusp of a bear market, before roaring back after Trump announced the pause. Stock-market bulls barely looked back as equities extended their climb, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both pushing back into record territory in June. Investors have been soothed by a framework agreement with China that helped cool tensions between Washington and Beijing. And while flare-ups between the U.S. and trading partners are possible, the expectation is that the pause will be extended for countries negotiating levies, all of which could make the July 9 deadline a 'non-event,' Schulze said. 'The setup for stocks during the second half of 2025 is quite Goldilocks' — neither too warm nor too cold, but just right — as investors eye potential trade deals, the extension of the 2017 tax cuts with passage of Trump's massive tax and spending bill, calming geopolitical tensions and a Fed that's warming up to interest-rate cuts, said Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer of Lincoln, Neb.-based Bellwether Wealth, which manages $630 million in assets, in emailed comments. Congressional Republicans wrestled Trump's fiscal legislation over the finish line shortly after markets saw an early close Thursday. That was also described as a positive for stocks, with tax cuts and other measures set to provide a fiscal tailwind. 'Enthusiasm is also heavily motivated by the fact that this growing economy will receive supply-side stimulus,' said Jose Torres, chief economist at Interactive Brokers, in a note, referring to the legislation. Read: Trump's big bill just passed the House. Here are the winners and losers as it goes to his desk. So much for the bond-market vigilantes. Volatile moves in Treasury yields beginning last fall were tied by some investors to fears that Trump's fiscal agenda would result in a further surge to the deficit. The legislation passed Thursday is projected to add $3.4 trillion to the U.S. government's $36.2 trillion debt over the next 10 years. Treasury yields rose Thursday, but that was driven more by good news on the economic front after a stronger-than-expected June jobs report. The yield on the 10-year note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y finished the week at 4.339%, up 5 basis points on the day but down 46 basis points from its 52-week high near 4.8% set in January. Yields and bond prices move opposite each other. Deficit estimates don't account for potential tariff revenues, which were $15.6 billion in April according to Bipartisan Policy Center data, analysts at Jefferies said in a Thursday note. 'The key question for equity investors is whether the tax incentives will meaningfully boost economic growth and thus rein in the growth in public debt over the next decade,' they wrote. Stocks rallied Thursday after June nonfarm payrolls rose a stronger-than-expected 147,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Economists didn't love all aspects of the report, but investors were in a buying mood. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to close at a record 6,279.35, while the Nasdaq advanced 1% to end at a record 20,601.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA gained 344.11 points, or 0.8%, to close at 44,828.53, off 0.4% from its record close of 45,014.04 set on Dec. 4. See: The June jobs report is grimy under the hood. Here's a few key numbers that tell us why. Investors may be reluctant to stand in the way of the stock market after such a ferocious rebound from the April lows. Schulze noted that the 19.8% 50-day rally off the April 8 low was the ninth-strongest such rally for the S&P 500 going back to 1950. Strong 50-day rallies have tended to be followed by impressive gains over the subsequent three-, six- and 12-month periods, he said (see table below). 'Strength usually begets strength,' he said. Some strategists still see reasons to be cautious. For one thing, the Wall Street consensus appears overly optimistic when it comes to the tariff outlook and thus the growth rate in calendar year 2025, said Scott Wren, global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, in a note. As tariffs arrive in force, the economy is certain to slow, pushing up unemployment and denting consumer spending. 'Our feel is that stocks are ahead of themselves, and as a result, we are looking to trim positions in markets and sectors that we find overvalued, particularly U.S. small-cap equities and the industrials and consumer discretionary sectors' in the S&P 500, which have done well in recent months, he said. Investors could hold those funds or reinvest in sectors that appear more favorable, including tech, financials, energy, utilities and communications services, he wrote. Or, since stocks aren't cheap, they may opt 'to hold those funds to reinvest if the downside volatility we expect develops.' 'I do all the yard work, cooking and cleaning': I live with my daughter and her lazy boyfriend. She wants me to buy her house. Do I say yes? Now that the megabill has passed, expect a ton of short-term debt to be sold to finance the government's deficit Stay buckled up — the market ride is going to get wilder still, says this strategist My wife and I have $7,000 a month in pensions and Social Security, plus $140,000 cash. Can we afford to retire? The Dow and Russell 2000 are joining the stock market's party. Is it a game changer for the bulls? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Recorder
04-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
European shares advance as markets take US jobs data in stride
FRANKFURT: European shares closed higher on Thursday as investors took in stride a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, with bank stocks leading gains as focus remained on a potential trade deal between the European Union and the United States. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed 0.5% higher, in tandem with a 0.9% rise in the US S&P 500. Germany's DAX advanced 0.6%, while France's CAC 40 added 0.2%. US job growth was unexpectedly solid in June, with the nonfarm payrolls reading shooting above market estimates for the month. 'Today's good news should be treated as such by the markets, with equities rising despite the accompanying pickup in interest rates,' said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. US interest rate futures show traders betting on a September start to Federal Reserve rate cuts and a total of just two quarter-point reductions by yearend, not the three rate cuts that they had favoured prior to the data. Banks were the biggest boost to the STOXX 600, with British lenders Natwest and Lloyds leading the charge at a more than 3% rise each. British stocks, bonds and the pound stabilised after losses on Wednesday as Prime Minister Keir Starmer's office rushed to give finance minister Rachel Reeves his full backing after she appeared in tears in parliament. UK midcaps climbed 1.2%, while the internationally-focussed blue-chip index added 0.6%. Also giving a leg up to global markets was the announcement of a deal between the United States and Vietnam ahead of next week's deadline set by President Donald Trump for new US trade tariffs worldwide. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union was aiming first for a trade agreement in principle with the United States before the deadline. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese-bound shipments from chip design software developers and ethane producers. German engineering company Siemens AG closed 0.8% higher after jumping as much as 3% in response to easing US-China trade tensions. Republicans in the US House of Representatives advanced Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill toward a final yes-or-no vote on Thursday. Shares of some European renewable energy companies extended gains from the previous session, with Vestas up close to 7%. The final version of the US bill is seen as more positive for wind power than an earlier version.
Business Times
03-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Europe: Shares advance as markets take US jobs data in stride
EUROPEAN shares closed higher on Thursday as investors took in stride a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, with bank stocks leading gains as focus remained on a potential trade deal between the European Union and the United States. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.47 per cent higher at 543.76, in tandem with a 0.9 per cent rise in the US S&P 500. Germany's DAX advanced 0.6 per cent, while France's CAC 40 added 0.2 per cent. US job growth was unexpectedly solid in June, with the nonfarm payrolls reading shooting above market estimates for the month. 'Today's good news should be treated as such by the markets, with equities rising despite the accompanying pickup in interest rates,' said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. US interest rate futures show traders betting on a September start to Federal Reserve rate cuts and a total of just two quarter-point reductions by yearend, not the three rate cuts that they had favoured prior to the data. Banks were the biggest boost to the Stoxx 600, with British lenders Natwest and Lloyds leading the charge at a more than 3 per cent rise each. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up British stocks, bonds and the pound stabilised after losses on Wednesday as Prime Minister Keir Starmer's office rushed to give finance minister Rachel Reeves his full backing after she appeared in tears in parliament. UK midcaps climbed 1.2 per cent, while the internationally-focused blue-chip index added 0.6 per cent. Also giving a leg up to global markets was the announcement of a deal between the United States and Vietnam ahead of next week's deadline set by President Donald Trump for new US trade tariffs worldwide. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union was aiming first for a trade agreement in principle with the United States before the deadline. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese-bound shipments from chip design software developers and ethane producers. German engineering company Siemens AG closed 0.8 per cent higher after jumping as much as 3 per cent in response to easing US-China trade tensions. Republicans in the US House of Representatives advanced Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill toward a final yes-or-no vote on Thursday. Shares of some European renewable energy companies extended gains from the previous session, with Vestas up close to 7 per cent. The final version of the US bill is seen as more positive for wind power than an earlier version. Accounts of the European Central Bank's last policy meeting showed ECB policymakers had cut rates to prevent an unwarranted tightening of monetary conditions in the face of elevated uncertainty around global trade. Shares of French voucher and benefits company Pluxee climbed 4.4 per cent after reporting an 11.1 per cent organic rise in its third-quarter operating revenue. REUTERS
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
It's typically a good time to invest in stocks — as long as you're patient
Market volatility has made the prospect of investing in stocks daunting in the Trump era. Regardless of near-term price swings, being patient over the long term has paid off throughout history. This is the fourth installment in BI's six-part series on making major life decisions during this period of massive change. Ask any financial advisor if now is a good time to buy stocks, and you'll likely get the same two words for an answer: It depends. You'll then get a couple of questions: What's your risk tolerance? What's your timeline? If you have either a low risk threshold or need the money in a few years' time, it's probably not a good time to buy. But if you possess the magical combination of having time on your side and the ability to shrug off volatility, history shows it's virtually always a good time to buy. The equity-investing landscape has been especially difficult during the Trump era. The reaction to the president's wide-reaching tariff proposals extended a post-inauguration sell-off that pulled the S&P 500 nearly 20% lower in a matter of weeks. But as Trump has backtracked on certain levies, and as the economic picture has remained robust, the index has swiftly recovered well over half of that. This dynamic was in full force on Monday as major US indexes soared more than 3% after the US and China agreed to substantial tariff cuts for 90 days. This is the fourth installment of BI's six-part series on making major life decisions in periods of immense policy-driven change. We've already covered best practices for: Starting a business Buying a house Switching jobs If you have a longer-term time horizon, history is on your side, according to Jeff Schulze, the head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. On a recent Franklin Templeton podcast, Schulze pointed out that in the 34 times over the last 75 years when a drawdown of 10% has occurred, the S&P 500 has averaged positive returns over the next 12 months. The forward one-year return is even stronger when a recession hasn't materialized, averaging 14% over time. And even when a recession has struck, 12-month returns have been positive, although to a lesser degree. Still, every market cycle is different, and there are reasons to be concerned that a potential bear market this time around could be more severe. For one, valuations on the S&P 500 have recently been at some of their highest levels in history. The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which looks at current stock prices compared to a rolling 10-year average of earnings, is still at about 33. That's higher than at the market's peak before the 1929 crash. Stock valuations greatly inform 10-year forward returns. This has led top strategists like David Kostin of Goldman Sachs and Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley to warn of lackluster returns for the S&P 500 in the decade ahead. Trump's 10% baseline tariffs are also seen potentially raising consumer prices while slowing economic growth — a 1970s-style stagflation scenario that investors are increasingly worried about. On an overall basis, however, stocks seemingly always recover and have delivered strong returns over multi-decade periods. For example, the S&P 500 is up 244% since its late 2007 peak just before the financial crisis. If you'd bought in at the market bottom in 2009, you'd be up nearly 700% in the period since. But there's no way to time the bottom perfectly. One way to mitigate this risk is by dollar-cost averaging. That's a fancy way of saying buying into the market at set intervals — perhaps every Friday, for example, or on the first of every month. So, if you had $10,000, you could buy in $500 at a time over the course of 20 weeks or months. That way, you buy when the market is up and when it is down. You take the risk of missing a rally over that time, but you also benefit from a more attractive buying point over the long term if the market falls further in the months ahead. Whichever way you decide to approach entering the market, your returns are likely to be good over the long run, if history is an accurate guide. Warren Buffett once said you should be OK with losing 50% or more of your money — on paper, at least — when you invest in stocks. In other words, you should have the stomach to withstand short-term volatility because you're in it for the long haul anyway. If you're disciplined enough to ignore any pain that comes along and can keep your eye on the prize far off on the horizon, then yes, now is a good time to buy. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
It's typically a good time to invest in stocks — as long as you're patient
Market volatility has made the prospect of investing in stocks daunting in the Trump era. Regardless of near-term price swings, being patient over the long term has paid off throughout history. This is the fourth installment in BI's six-part series on making major life decisions during this period of massive change. Ask any financial advisor if now is a good time to buy stocks, and you'll likely get the same two words for an answer: It depends. You'll then get a couple of questions: What's your risk tolerance? What's your timeline? If you have either a low risk threshold or need the money in a few years' time, it's probably not a good time to buy. But if you possess the magical combination of having time on your side and the ability to shrug off volatility, history shows it's virtually always a good time to buy. The equity-investing landscape has been especially difficult during the Trump era. The reaction to the president's wide-reaching tariff proposals extended a post-inauguration sell-off that pulled the S&P 500 nearly 20% lower in a matter of weeks. But as Trump has backtracked on certain levies, and as the economic picture has remained robust, the index has swiftly recovered well over half of that. This dynamic was in full force on Monday as major US indexes soared more than 3% after the US and China agreed to substantial tariff cuts for 90 days. This is the fourth installment of BI's six-part series on making major life decisions in periods of immense policy-driven change. We've already covered best practices for: Starting a business Buying a house Switching jobs If you have a longer-term time horizon, history is on your side, according to Jeff Schulze, the head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. On a recent Franklin Templeton podcast, Schulze pointed out that in the 34 times over the last 75 years when a drawdown of 10% has occurred, the S&P 500 has averaged positive returns over the next 12 months. The forward one-year return is even stronger when a recession hasn't materialized, averaging 14% over time. And even when a recession has struck, 12-month returns have been positive, although to a lesser degree. Still, every market cycle is different, and there are reasons to be concerned that a potential bear market this time around could be more severe. For one, valuations on the S&P 500 have recently been at some of their highest levels in history. The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which looks at current stock prices compared to a rolling 10-year average of earnings, is still at about 33. That's higher than at the market's peak before the 1929 crash. Stock valuations greatly inform 10-year forward returns. This has led top strategists like David Kostin of Goldman Sachs and Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley to warn of lackluster returns for the S&P 500 in the decade ahead. Trump's 10% baseline tariffs are also seen potentially raising consumer prices while slowing economic growth — a 1970s-style stagflation scenario that investors are increasingly worried about. On an overall basis, however, stocks seemingly always recover and have delivered strong returns over multi-decade periods. For example, the S&P 500 is up 244% since its late 2007 peak just before the financial crisis. If you'd bought in at the market bottom in 2009, you'd be up nearly 700% in the period since. But there's no way to time the bottom perfectly. One way to mitigate this risk is by dollar-cost averaging. That's a fancy way of saying buying into the market at set intervals — perhaps every Friday, for example, or on the first of every month. So, if you had $10,000, you could buy in $500 at a time over the course of 20 weeks or months. That way, you buy when the market is up and when it is down. You take the risk of missing a rally over that time, but you also benefit from a more attractive buying point over the long term if the market falls further in the months ahead. Whichever way you decide to approach entering the market, your returns are likely to be good over the long run, if history is an accurate guide. Warren Buffett once said you should be OK with losing 50% or more of your money — on paper, at least — when you invest in stocks. In other words, you should have the stomach to withstand short-term volatility because you're in it for the long haul anyway. If you're disciplined enough to ignore any pain that comes along and can keep your eye on the prize far off on the horizon, then yes, now is a good time to buy. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
