Latest news with #JeffdeGraaf
Business Insider
7 hours ago
- Business
- Business Insider
The S&P 500 just flashed a highly bullish 'golden cross' technical signal
After hitting record highs in recent days, the S&P 500 just flashed an indicator for more gains ahead. On Tuesday, the index's 50-day moving average of 5,846.34 closed above its 200-day moving average of 5,837.96, a bullish technical pattern known as a golden cross. It's the first time the indicator has flashed since February 2023. Historically, the golden cross has been seen 38 times in the S&P 500 since World War II. In over 70% of these occurrences, the index has closed higher a year later. A moving average is a commonly used technical indicator that tracks the average S&P 500 closing price over a set period of time. The appearance of a golden cross means short-term price momentum has eclipsed the market's broader trend, signifying the recent gains could shift the S&P 500's long-term trajectory upward. On the other hand, the bearish version of the signal is a death cross, which occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 flashed a death cross on April 14 this year at the height of the trade war volatility. Historically, a strategy of buying the index at the golden cross and selling at the following death cross has led to higher returns than simply buying and holding, Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro's head of technical research, said in a note on Wednesday. The strategy has a win rate of 73%, with 27 out of 37 past trades ending in profit and an average gain per trade of 14.7%, according to Fidelity. Additionally, a crossover strategy has delivered 50% higher risk-adjusted returns than a simple buy-and-hold approach based on the Sharpe ratio, deGraaf said. The market has made an impressive recovery from April lows. Back in May, the S&P 500 broke above its 200-day moving average. The golden cross comes as market breadth is expanding and more stocks participate in the rally, a sign that the rally has sustained momentum. On Tuesday, 26% of S&P 500 components hit 65-day highs, deGraaf noted. By sector, financial stocks are gaining momentum. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) hit a fresh 52-week high, and seasonal trends for bank stocks, coupled with a more relaxed regulatory environment, point to more gains ahead. Among consumer discretionary stocks, nearly 60% of names are making 20-day highs. If this sector of the market continues to improve, it could help confirm the next leg of the bull market.
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Stocks Head For Solid Month of Gains
Bloomberg Television brings you the latest news and analysis leading up to the final minutes and seconds before and after the closing bell on Wall Street. Today's guests are Jeff deGraaf Renaissance Macro Sarah House Wells Fargo, Jason Goldberg Barclays, Kay Bailey Hutchison Former US Ambassador to NATO, Amanda Agati PNC, Sarah Bianchi Evercore, Vivek Mathew, Antares, Bobby Sharma, Bluestone, and Jake Danehy Fair Harbor (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This 'escape velocity' signal that flashed before the 2024 stock-market rally points to a new bull run
Jeff deGraaf sees a robust stock market recovery signaled by a 20-day high thrust. The indicator points to a potential bull market after a sustainable bottom. Despite potential short-term volatility, long-term gains are expected with rising bullish sentiment. While some strategists are doubtful that the stock market's recent rally has legs, Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro's chairman and head of technical research, sees an indicator pointing to a robust bull market ahead. Last week, the 20-day high thrust, which deGraaf calls an "escape velocity" signal, flashed. The indicator, which looks at the price action of S&P 500 stocks, is triggered when over 20% of stocks hit 20-day highs. As of May 12, 57.65% of stocks had hit a 20-day high. According to this indicator, the stock market could be safely in bull territory after hitting a sustainable bottom. "This 20-day high rule just tells us that breadth and money are coming into the market on a wholesale basis," deGraaf said on his weekly webinar on May 13. "You just don't find these things happening in the midst of a bear market." When it triggers, the market tends to do very well the year afterwards. Historically, the stock market has rallied an average of 16% 12 months out, signaling that the market is likely to have reached a durable bottom. Most recently, the escape velocity signal was also triggered in late 2023 and briefly again in August 2024 — two periods that preceded a stock-market run-up. That doesn't mean there won't be any pullbacks, though. Within a year of the signal flashing, the average drawdown has been around 10%. While investors should buckle up for short-term volatility, the overall impact of the escape velocity indicator points to gains over the 12 months ahead. Another positive signal deGraaf sees in the market is the ratio of bulls to bears. While there are more bears than bulls in the market, the number of bulls is rising. Annualized average daily returns are at their highest when sentiment is overall negative but gradually recovering. "Historically, this is easily the best zone to be in, when you have a proliferation of bears but that is starting to contract," deGraaf said. Going forward, deGraaf is looking for a higher percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average to rise above 90% for a confirmation that the lows are in. A higher percentage of stocks trending above their 20-day moving average means the market rally is broad and healthy. "That tends to be the last holdout of information for that escape velocity that ends up being bullish," deGraaf said. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This 'escape velocity' signal that flashed before the 2024 stock-market rally points to a new bull run
Jeff deGraaf sees a robust stock market recovery signaled by a 20-day high thrust. The indicator points to a potential bull market after a sustainable bottom. Despite potential short-term volatility, long-term gains are expected with rising bullish sentiment. While some strategists are doubtful that the stock market's recent rally has legs, Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro's chairman and head of technical research, sees an indicator pointing to a robust bull market ahead. Last week, the 20-day high thrust, which deGraaf calls an "escape velocity" signal, flashed. The indicator, which looks at the price action of S&P 500 stocks, is triggered when over 20% of stocks hit 20-day highs. As of May 12, 57.65% of stocks had hit a 20-day high. According to this indicator, the stock market could be safely in bull territory after hitting a sustainable bottom. "This 20-day high rule just tells us that breadth and money are coming into the market on a wholesale basis," deGraaf said on his weekly webinar on May 13. "You just don't find these things happening in the midst of a bear market." When it triggers, the market tends to do very well the year afterwards. Historically, the stock market has rallied an average of 16% 12 months out, signaling that the market is likely to have reached a durable bottom. Most recently, the escape velocity signal was also triggered in late 2023 and briefly again in August 2024 — two periods that preceded a stock-market run-up. That doesn't mean there won't be any pullbacks, though. Within a year of the signal flashing, the average drawdown has been around 10%. While investors should buckle up for short-term volatility, the overall impact of the escape velocity indicator points to gains over the 12 months ahead. Another positive signal deGraaf sees in the market is the ratio of bulls to bears. While there are more bears than bulls in the market, the number of bulls is rising. Annualized average daily returns are at their highest when sentiment is overall negative but gradually recovering. "Historically, this is easily the best zone to be in, when you have a proliferation of bears but that is starting to contract," deGraaf said. Going forward, deGraaf is looking for a higher percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average to rise above 90% for a confirmation that the lows are in. A higher percentage of stocks trending above their 20-day moving average means the market rally is broad and healthy. "That tends to be the last holdout of information for that escape velocity that ends up being bullish," deGraaf said. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
This 'escape velocity' signal that flashed before the 2024 stock-market rally points to a new bull run
Jeff deGraaf sees a robust stock market recovery signaled by a 20-day high thrust. The indicator points to a potential bull market after a sustainable bottom. Despite potential short-term volatility, long-term gains are expected with rising bullish sentiment. Last week, the 20-day high thrust, which deGraaf calls an "escape velocity" signal, flashed. The indicator, which looks at the price action of S&P 500 stocks, is triggered when over 20% of stocks hit 20-day highs. As of May 12, 57.65% of stocks had hit a 20-day high. According to this indicator, the stock market could be safely in bull territory after hitting a sustainable bottom. "This 20-day high rule just tells us that breadth and money are coming into the market on a wholesale basis," deGraaf said on his weekly webinar on May 13. "You just don't find these things happening in the midst of a bear market." When it triggers, the market tends to do very well the year afterwards. Historically, the stock market has rallied an average of 16% 12 months out, signaling that the market is likely to have reached a durable bottom. Most recently, the escape velocity signal was also triggered in late 2023 and briefly again in August 2024 — two periods that preceded a stock-market run-up. That doesn't mean there won't be any pullbacks, though. Within a year of the signal flashing, the average drawdown has been around 10%. While investors should buckle up for short-term volatility, the overall impact of the escape velocity indicator points to gains over the 12 months ahead. Renaissance Macro Annualized average daily returns are at their highest when sentiment is overall negative but gradually recovering. "Historically, this is easily the best zone to be in, when you have a proliferation of bears but that is starting to contract," deGraaf said. Going forward, deGraaf is looking for a higher percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average to rise above 90% for a confirmation that the lows are in. A higher percentage of stocks trending above their 20-day moving average means the market rally is broad and healthy.
