Latest news with #JenniferSmith
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Expect hotter-than-usual weather this summer as Manitoba battles wildfire season, experts say
Weather experts say Manitoba is expected to see above-normal temperatures this summer, which could increase the risk of wildfire as the province continues to grapple with out-of-control blazes across the region. "There is a warmer than normal trend expected in the forecast for Manitoba for the summer season. And this is combined with a possibility for drier conditions as well — two elements essentially that are not favourable," said Jennifer Smith, the national warning preparedness meteorologist with the Meteorological Service of Canada at Environment and Climate Change Canada. Temperatures will be about a degree or two above normal across the country through August, although the risk of wildfires remains highest in central and western provinces and territories, modelling by Environment and Climate Change Canada suggests. Alex Crawford, an assistant professor in the department of environment and geography at the University of Manitoba, said forecasts show the confidence on those above-normal temperatures, while high across the province, is especially high in northern Manitoba. But other elements of the summer forecast that could affect wildfire risk are generally harder to predict accurately. For example, Crawford said "we really can't say anything confidently about" precipitation this summer, while predicting the amount of fires that start from lightning from thunderstorms is "a fool's errand." Another factor Crawford said could be worthwhile trying to predict is wind, which Environment and Climate Change Canada doesn't present in its seasonal forecasts. "Maybe in the future they will start doing that," he said. "It's totally feasible. Are we there yet? No. The fact that our precipitation forecasts seasonally are so bad is a good indication that we still have a lot of work to do." Smith said although the federal agency's forecasts don't give detail on things like wind and lightning, it's something to be mindful of. "Summer is storm season — that's when you do get all of the lightning activity," she said. Manitoba has recently had some rain in certain parts of the province, but Natural Resources and Indigenous Futures Minister Ian Bushie warned Thursday the province likely isn't out of the woods yet when it comes to wildfire season. "Actually, I would almost hazard to say we're not even in the height of our wildfire season yet. So as we go on, I'm encouraging Manitobans to be very fire smart and vigilant, as we talk about human starts," Bushie said at a news conference. As of Friday, provincial wildfire data showed there were 21 fires burning across Manitoba, with seven out of control. The total number of fires to date was 117, with nine of them starting from natural causes, 103 being caused by people and five under investigation. The update comes in a Canadian wildfire season shaping up to be the second-worst on record, federal officials said Thursday. "We are expecting a hot and dry summer, and definitely leading to a forecast of increased fire danger conditions for much of western and northern Canada," Michael Norton, director general of the Northern Forestry Centre with Natural Resources Canada, said during a government technical briefing in Ottawa. Wildfires have scorched 3.7 million hectares across the country so far — six times the area of Prince Edward Island. The blazes have consumed about 800,000 hectares on average annually since 2014. About 76 per cent of the total area burned in Canada is in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Norton said while the start of wildfire season was "relatively normal" in early spring, the forest fire situation rapidly worsened over the past few weeks — driven by higher-than-average temperatures, especially across the west, with low accumulated precipitation on top of already dry conditions. Wildfires in Manitoba have forced thousands of people out of their homes this season, although it was announced earlier this week that some would slowly be allowed to return to their communities starting this weekend. Despite that progress, the province on Friday was deemed to be at a high fire danger level, with the potential for new blazes due to lightning and human cases continuing, the government said in a news release.
Yahoo
15-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Canadian heat waves far more likely in the era of climate change
"When it's in the 40s outside, it's warmer in here. And, it just goes on for weeks," said Julie Leggett, a resident of Nee Glasgow, N.S., in an interview with The Weather Network in 2024. Heat waves can be especially dangerous for people without air conditioning. SEE ALSO: So, you might want to buy one soon, if you're in Eastern Canada, as another hot summer is in store, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). 'In the East, the probability for a warmer-than-normal summer, on average, is highest. It's definitely higher in the East than elsewhere," said Jennifer Smith, an ECCC meteorologist, in a recent interview with The Weather Network. Last summer, 37 heat waves across the country were analyzed as part of a pilot rapid extreme weather event attribution system. The goal is to quantify how human-caused climate change impacts the likelihood of heat waves shortly after they occur, in an effort to help inform adaptation planning. The system works by using climate models to compare the frequency of heat waves during the 1800s, when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were lower before the Industrial Revolution. A colour-coded scale was created to indicate how much more likely an extreme weather event was to occur, specifically because of human influence on the climate. Last year, four events--all in Canada's North--were 'far more likely," while 28 events were much more likely and five were more likely. It's already been used this year to analyze a four-day heat wave that occurred in Alberta at the end of May. 'Averaged over all of Alberta, the peak temperature during the event was nearly 29 C, which is more than 11 C above normal for this time of year," said Bill Merryfield, a ECCC research scientist, in a recent interview with The Weather Network. The Alberta heat wave was at least two to 10 times more likely to occur in the climate of today, classified as 'much more likely to occur because of human activity.' The four 2024 Northern Canada heat waves were 10 times more likely--so, in other words, far more likely. 'We can expect similar events to occur more often as our climate continues to warm," said Merryfield.
CBC
15-06-2025
- Climate
- CBC
Expect hotter-than-usual weather this summer as Manitoba battles wildfire season, experts say
Weather experts say Manitoba is expected to see above-normal temperatures this summer, which could increase the risk of wildfire as the province continues to grapple with out-of-control blazes across the region. "There is a warmer than normal trend expected in the forecast for Manitoba for the summer season. And this is combined with a possibility for drier conditions as well — two elements essentially that are not favourable," said Jennifer Smith, the national warning preparedness meteorologist with the Meteorological Service of Canada at Environment and Climate Change Canada. Temperatures will be about a degree or two above normal across the country through August, although the risk of wildfires remains highest in central and western provinces and territories, modelling by Environment and Climate Change Canada suggests. Alex Crawford, an assistant professor in the department of environment and geography at the University of Manitoba, said forecasts show the confidence on those above-normal temperatures, while high across the province, is especially high in northern Manitoba. But other elements of the summer forecast that could affect wildfire risk are generally harder to predict accurately. For example, Crawford said "we really can't say anything confidently about" precipitation this summer, while predicting the amount of fires that start from lightning from thunderstorms is "a fool's errand." Another factor Crawford said could be worthwhile trying to predict is wind, which Environment and Climate Change Canada doesn't present in its seasonal forecasts. "Maybe in the future they will start doing that," he said. "It's totally feasible. Are we there yet? No. The fact that our precipitation forecasts seasonally are so bad is a good indication that we still have a lot of work to do." Smith said although the federal agency's forecasts don't give detail on things like wind and lightning, it's something to be mindful of. "Summer is storm season — that's when you do get all of the lightning activity," she said. Manitoba has recently had some rain in certain parts of the province, but Natural Resources and Indigenous Futures Minister Ian Bushie warned Thursday the province likely isn't out of the woods yet when it comes to wildfire season. "Actually, I would almost hazard to say we're not even in the height of our wildfire season yet. So as we go on, I'm encouraging Manitobans to be very fire smart and vigilant, as we talk about human starts," Bushie said at a news conference. As of Friday, provincial wildfire data showed there were 21 fires burning across Manitoba, with seven out of control. The total number of fires to date was 117, with nine of them starting from natural causes, 103 being caused by people and five under investigation. The update comes in a Canadian wildfire season shaping up to be the second-worst on record, federal officials said Thursday. "We are expecting a hot and dry summer, and definitely leading to a forecast of increased fire danger conditions for much of western and northern Canada," Michael Norton, director general of the Northern Forestry Centre with Natural Resources Canada, said during a government technical briefing in Ottawa. Wildfires have scorched 3.7 million hectares across the country so far — six times the area of Prince Edward Island. The blazes have consumed about 800,000 hectares on average annually since 2014. About 76 per cent of the total area burned in Canada is in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Norton said while the start of wildfire season was "relatively normal" in early spring, the forest fire situation rapidly worsened over the past few weeks — driven by higher-than-average temperatures, especially across the west, with low accumulated precipitation on top of already dry conditions. Wildfires in Manitoba have forced thousands of people out of their homes this season, although it was announced earlier this week that some would slowly be allowed to return to their communities starting this weekend.
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
Heatwaves and wildfires: Canada's summer forecast reads like a climate horror story
Canada is bracing for a hotter-than-average summer, particularly in Ontario and the Maritimes, with potential for major heatwaves and increased wildfire risk due to dry conditions. Wildfire activity is already surging, with significant hectares burned and widespread evacuations. Residents are adapting by monitoring air quality and preparing for heat waves, emphasizing the need for proactive wildfire management. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads For families and communities Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What does NASA say? What Canadians can do: Track regional weather and air-quality alerts via the WeatherCAN app. Prepare for possible heat waves, especially in Atlantic, Quebec, and Ontario. Stay fire-smart: Droughts can ignite fires from simple sparks. Canada is set to endure a hotter-than-average summer, with nearly every region, especially Ontario and the Maritimes, bracing for warmer-than-normal conditions, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada 's June 10 seasonal outlook.'Expect temperatures hovering well above seasonal norms,' warned meteorologist Jennifer Smith, noting certain regions face 'major heatwaves,' while others may see persistent mild warmth that cumulatively 'nudges the stats.'Only a few coastal spots in BC and the Northwest Territories might enjoy slightly cooler means long spells of sunny, sweat-soaked afternoons and, for many, the return of smoky skies. Scientists confirm that from 1948 to 2016, average summer temperatures in Canada have climbed nearly 1.8 °C, about double the global average, and climate change is the main Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment Canada , cautions that the combination of dry winters, diminished spring rains, and hotter weather could fuel severe wildfires as early as July and intensify in activity is already surging: as of June 11, nearly 1,900 wildfires have burned roughly 3.5 million hectares, prompting at least 32,000 evacuations and claiming two data from NASA estimates four times more 'hot spots' were detected this June than average, making it the second-worst fire season start since 2012, only behind 2023. The smoky impacts are widespread: air quality alerts have been issued in Ontario, Quebec, and even parts of the US, with orange-tinted sunsets visible as far east as the ground, families, farmers, and fire crews are learning to Alberta's wildfire-affected communities, residents speak of alternating pride in their resilience and growing anxiety. And in urban centers, people monitor the Air Quality Health Index more closely, opting to stay indoors or wear local firefighting efforts and advocate for proactive wildfire management.
CBC
11-06-2025
- Climate
- CBC
Hotter-than-normal summer forecast in most of Canada
Canada is expected to see a warmer-than-usual summer with uncertain precipitation levels in most provinces, based on Environment and Climate Change Canada's summer forecast. Jennifer Smith, a warning preparedness meteorologist, said Tuesday that Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario and northern Manitoba are especially likely — 100 per cent in some areas — to see a hotter than normal summer, though the odds are high for the rest of the country, too. "There are a couple of cooler spots, most prominently along the Beaufort Sea in northwestern Canada, but overall the forecast leans toward a warmer summer," Smith said. Statistically, she said the above-average warmth may be skewed by extreme short-term heat waves. But in other cases, "it could be recurring short warm spells or just a subtle, consistent warmth that pushes seasonal averages up enough to nudge the stats." At the same time, Smith said the agency's modelling couldn't come up with a reliable rain forecast for those same provinces over the summer, but much of Alberta, British Columbia and parts of Saskatchewan could see below-normal levels of precipitation. "Summer precipitation is tricky to forecast, because it's driven by scattered thunderstorms and local downpours, which are difficult to predict months in advance," she said. "Just one big rainfall event can shift a seasonal total to above normal, even if most days are dry." WATCH | It already feels like summer in southern B.C.: Early-season heat grips B.C.'s South Coast, raising health concerns 3 days ago Duration 1:55 Parts of Southern and Interior B.C. are experiencing an early dose of summer this weekend with temperatures nearing 30 C. As Leanne Yu reports, while many will be soaking up the sun, support workers in Vancouver are taking precautions to help vulnerable people stay safe. Western Canada ripe for severe wildfires Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment Canada, told reporters that the lack of spring rain, plus potentially drier conditions moving forward, means that all of Western Canada is expected to be ripe for severe wildfires starting next month. Conditions are only expected to worsen by August, Merryfield said, with most provinces west of Ontario expected to reach "well above average" levels for fire severity situations. He said the forecast doesn't point to the number of wildfires that are expected. Rather, the forecast is meant to illustrate how likely a wildfire is to become severe after it ignites. "Going into the summer, Canada was already experiencing a severe early wildfire season," Merryfield said, adding that as of the end of last month, Canada saw triple the 10-year average in terms of area burned for this time of year. WATCH | Extreme heat, wind gusts combine to make perfect wildfire conditions: The fire weather pattern everyone is watching 13 days ago Duration 1:41 It's still May, and wildfire season across the Prairies is already off to a dangerous and fast-moving start. Meteorologist Johanna Wagstaffe explains how extreme heat, and gusty winds are creating a perfect storm for fire growth — with no rain in sight. Those early season wildfires have prompted the evacuation of thousands in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where crews are battling dozens of fires in both provinces. Evacuations, although on a smaller scale, have also been ordered in British Columbia, Alberta and northern Ontario. As of Monday, there were over 80 active wildfires in B.C. alone, with more than half listed as out of control. Average summer temperatures up 1.8 C since 1948 Merryfield said human-induced climate change is a key influence on the warmer-than-normal temperature forecast, which then influences the wildfire severity expectation. "Canada's average summer temperatures have warmed by about 1.8 degrees since 1948, which is about double the warming of the global average temperature during that period," he said. WATCH | The role a chief heat officer plays in our warmining municipalities: Could appointing a chief heat officer help Toronto adapt to a warming climate? 5 days ago Duration 2:47 Many municipalities around the world are appointing chief heat officers to oversee heat management and adaptation solutions. CBC's Britnei Bilhete explores whether Toronto should do the same. "This long-term warming trend is a major contributor to the high forecast probabilities of above normal temperatures across Canada." Health Canada says some of the best ways to stay safe from the heat are to reduce sun exposure as much as possible, stay hydrated and take cool showers or baths.
