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Arab News
an hour ago
- Business
- Arab News
As US inflation edges up, Trump renews criticism of Fed chief, calling him ‘stubborn'
WASHINGTON: The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure logged a mild uptick Friday while spending weakened, triggering another tirade by President Donald Trump against the central bank chair for not cutting interest rates sooner. 'We have a guy that's just a stubborn mule and a stupid person,' Trump told an event at the White House, referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 'He's making a mistake.' With Powell's term as Fed chief coming to an end next year, Trump hinted at his choice of successor: 'I'm going to put somebody that wants to cut rates.' The president's remarks came after government data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index climbing 2.3 percent last month from a year ago in May. This was in line with analyst expectations and a slight acceleration from April's 2.2 percent increase, but still a relatively mild uptick. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the PCE price index was up 2.7 percent, rising from April's 2.6 percent uptick, the Commerce Department's report showed. But consumer spending declined, after Trump's fresh tariffs in April dragged on consumer sentiment. PCE dropped by 0.1 percent from the preceding month, reversing an earlier rise. While Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on most US trading partners since returning to the White House in January — alongside higher rates on imports of steel, aluminum and autos — these have had a muted effect so far on inflation. This is in part because he held off or postponed some of his harshest salvos, while businesses are still running through inventory they stockpiled in anticipation of the levies. But central bank officials have not rushed to slash interest rates, saying they can afford to wait and learn more about the impact of Trump's recent duties. They expect to learn more about the tariffs' effects over the summer. 'The experience of the limited range of tariffs introduced in 2018 suggests that pass-through to consumer prices is intense three-to-six months after their implementation,' warned economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note. They flagged weakness in consumer spending, in part due to a pullback in autos after buyers rushed to get ahead of levies. And spending on services was tepid even after excluding volatile components, they said. 'There has also been a clear weakening in discretionary services spending, notably in travel and hospitality,' said Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, in a note. This reflects 'the chilling effect of the plunge in consumer sentiment,' he added. Between April and May, the PCE price index was up 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department report showed. As a July deadline approaches for higher tariff rates to kick in on dozens of economies, all eyes are also on whether countries can reach lasting trade deals with Washington to ease the effects of tariffs. For now, despite the slowing in economic growth, Pearce said risks that inflation could increase will keep the Fed on hold with interest rates 'until much later in the year.'
Malay Mail
3 hours ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
Trump slams US Fed chair Powell as ‘stubborn mule' after mild inflation rise and consumer spending dip
WASHINGTON, June 28 — The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure logged a mild uptick yesterday while spending weakened, triggering another tirade by President Donald Trump against the central bank chair for not cutting interest rates sooner. 'We have a guy that's just a stubborn mule and a stupid person,' Trump told an event at the White House, referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 'He's making a mistake.' With Powell's term as Fed chief coming to an end next year, Trump hinted at his choice of successor: 'I'm going to put somebody that wants to cut rates.' The president's remarks came after government data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index climbing 2.3 percent last month from a year ago in May. This was in line with analyst expectations and a slight acceleration from April's 2.2 percent increase, but still a relatively mild uptick. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the PCE price index was up 2.7 percent, rising from April's 2.6 percent uptick, the Commerce Department's report showed. But consumer spending declined, after Trump's fresh tariffs in April dragged on consumer sentiment. PCE dropped by 0.1 percent from the preceding month, reversing an earlier rise. While Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on most US trading partners since returning to the White House in January — alongside higher rates on imports of steel, aluminium and autos — these have had a muted effect so far on inflation. This is in part because he held off or postponed some of his harshest salvos, while businesses are still running through inventory they stockpiled in anticipation of the levies. But central bank officials have not rushed to slash interest rates, saying they can afford to wait and learn more about the impact of Trump's recent duties. They expect to learn more about the tariffs' effects over the summer. 'Clear weakening' 'The experience of the limited range of tariffs introduced in 2018 suggests that pass-through to consumer prices is intense three-to-six months after their implementation,' warned economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note. They flagged weakness in consumer spending, in part due to a pullback in autos after buyers rushed to get ahead of levies. And spending on services was tepid even after excluding volatile components, they said. 'There has also been a clear weakening in discretionary services spending, notably in travel and hospitality,' said Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, in a note. This reflects 'the chilling effect of the plunge in consumer sentiment,' he added. Between April and May, the PCE price index was up 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department report showed. As a July deadline approaches for higher tariff rates to kick in on dozens of economies, all eyes are also on whether countries can reach lasting trade deals with Washington to ease the effects of tariffs. For now, despite the slowing in economic growth, Pearce said risks that inflation could increase will keep the Fed on hold with interest rates 'until much later in the year.' — AFP
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of America explains how a market bubble could soon form — and lays out the perfect trade to combat it
BofA analysts say risks of a stock market bubble in the second half are building. The bank's Michael Hartnett said expectations for rate cuts and lower taxes are fueling inflows to stocks. His team says a top trade is owning US growth stocks and international value stocks. A Bank of America analyst sees the risk of a speculative stock market bubble increasing as expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates continue to rise. In a note on Friday, BofA's Michael Hartnett highlighted a shift that he sees approaching, one that could lead to complications for investors—and he also shared his view on a trade to hedge such a scenario. Geopolitical tensions and tariff updates from President Donald Trump have been headwinds for markets. But with the Israel-Iran ceasefire continuing to hold, the focus has shifted to the possibility of interest rate cuts in July. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell opted to leave rates steady at this month's meeting, but several top officials since then have come out in support for a cut as soon as next month. As Hartnett's team sees it, investors have begun to adjust for a higher likelihood that Powell will pivot in his stance and cut interest rates. On top of that, Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is likely to result in lower taxes for corporations and some households. "H2 bubble risk high as Trump/Powell pivot from tariffs to tax cuts/rate cuts to incite US$ devaluation/US stock bubble," Hartnett wrote. Hartnett and his team go on to say that the best way for investors to play the market against the backdrop of a potential bubble is by owning US growth stocks and international value stocks, presenting it as a means of finding a balance between risk and reward. They highlight this strategy as an effective way to guard against the potential impact of the predicted second-half bubble, as it offers exposure to growth in both US and international markets. Other experts have shared similar strategies for handling this year's high levels of market and economic uncertainty. Investor Bill Gross said this week he was eyeing a small bull market for stocks and a small bear market for bonds, highlighting the strategy of buying one and selling the other. Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Recorder
4 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Asian currencies: Taiwan dollar hits 3-year high
BENGALURU: The Taiwan dollar jumped to a more than three-year high on Friday on a weaker greenback, while other emerging Asian currencies were steady and equities mixed as investors exercised caution ahead of looming US tariff deadlines. Taiwan's currency hit its strongest level since early-April 2022 at 28.919 per US dollar, bucking the broader trend. Traders attributed the currency's ascent to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker US dollar, and the continued flow of foreign capital into the island. The currencies of other developing Asian nations were largely steady. The Thai baht slipped 0.1% and the South Korean won dropped 0.5% but logged its best week since June 2. The Philippine peso was up 0.2%. The dollar inched lower against a basket of currencies, as markets priced in deeper US rate cuts. Speculation that President Donald Trump could name a more dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell also added to the expectations. Investors will closely watch the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - due later in the day, for rate cues. 'Combination of the 'sell USD' trade, consistent stronger Chinese yuan fix seen over the last few sessions and geopolitical continue to fuel the rally in Asia excluding Japan,' OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said. Equities in emerging Asia were mixed as investors turned their attention to progress in trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline for Trump's reciprocal tariffs.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump says he won't appoint anyone to Fed who doesn't back rate cuts
By Trevor Hunnicutt and Kanishka Singh WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would not appoint anyone to head the Federal Reserve who would not lower interest rates from where they are, setting perhaps the most explicit litmus test yet for candidates to be the next central bank chief to align with his demands for steep rate cuts in order to get the job. "If I think somebody's going to keep the rates where they are or whatever, I'm not going to put them in," Trump said. "I'm going to put somebody that wants to cut rates. There are a lot of them out there." Presidents in the past have complained about the Fed setting interest rates too high for their liking, but Trump has taken it further than any recent U.S. leader in setting a clear expectation for whomever he nominates to be in line with his wishes. Trump, who said rates should be cut to 1% from the current Fed benchmark rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, has repeatedly railed against Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering borrowing costs since Trump returned to the White House in January, and he did so again on Friday. "I'd love him to resign if he wanted to, he's done a lousy job," Trump, speaking at the White House, said, while also labeling the Fed chair as "stupid." After raising rates aggressively coming out of the pandemic to combat the largest inflation outbreak since the 1970s and 1980s, the Fed lowered them a bit in the second half of last year but has not cut them since Trump returned to office. That is largely because Powell and the large majority of policymakers are concerned Trump's tariff policies in particular may rekindle inflation, and they prefer to wait longer to see if that develops before lowering rates again. Fed officials themselves have penciled in half a percentage point of cuts later this year, although that is a fraction of the reduction Trump is demanding. Trump's latest rant against Powell comes as he has largely backed away from threats to try to fire the Fed leader after a recent Supreme Court opinion appeared to align with long-standing views that presidents cannot dismiss top Fed officials over policy disagreements. The protection is seen as central to the Fed's independence from political interference in policymaking, which is seen as a critical pillar of its credibility as the world's most influential central bank. Trump has since turned his focus more to a successor for Powell, whose term as chair expires in May 2026. He has in recent weeks said he has three or four potential candidates in mind and he would make a decision soon. Most past Fed chair appointments have typically been made roughly three or four months before the vacancy was scheduled. There are about 10 months remaining in Powell's tenure as chair, and an early nomination by Trump is seen as an effort to undermine Powell's authority by giving voice to a "shadow chair" who would advocate for a different policy trajectory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, seen as one of the potential candidates to replace Powell, downplayed the "shadow chair" idea, however. "I don't think anyone's necessarily talking about that," he told CNBC. Bessent noted that just one seat on the Fed Board of Governors is scheduled to open up within the year when Governor Adriana Kugler's term expires in early 2026. While Powell's term as chair expires next May, he is not required to leave the Fed altogether until his board seat expires in 2028. That leaves Kugler's expected departure as the first opportunity for a Trump appointment. "So there is a chance that the person who is going to become the chair could be appointed in January, which would probably mean an October, November nomination," Bessent said. Asked about reports that he is among the pool of candidates, Bessent said: "I'll do what the president wants, but I think I have the best job in Washington." Others seen as possible nominees for the job are White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Governor Christopher Waller. Waller, appointed by Trump during the Republican's first term in office, in the past week has said he is open to cutting interest rates as soon as the Fed's next meeting at the end of July. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
