Latest news with #JimBurkhard
Mint
07-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Oil prices fall 1% as OPEC+ announces increase in output
Oil prices fell on Monday after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected hike in crude production starting next month, signalling ample supply amid subdued global demand. Around 7:30 am, the August contract of Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $67.62 per barrel, lower 1.04% from its previous close. The August contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX was at $68.53, lower by 0.67% from its previous close. Eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—met virtually on 5 July and agreed to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is higher than the phased hike of 411,000 bpd implemented from May through July. In a statement dated 5 July, OPEC said: "In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 548 thousand barrels per day in August 2025 from July 2025 required production level." It, however, said that the gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability, it added. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The eight countries will meet on 3 August 2025 to decide on September production levels. Oil supply growth will outpace demand and weigh on prices, S&P Global Commodity Insights said in a recent analysis. While the Israel-Iran conflict pushed Brent near $80 a barrel in June, the resulting price spike was short-lived. The uneasy ceasefire has done little to shift the underlying trajectory of global oil markets, the report noted. Jim Burkhard, vice president and global head of crude oil research, S&P Global Commodity Insights had said in the note on 2 July: 'The underlying fundamentals of the global oil market remain profoundly unchanged. OPEC+ members are continuing with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts. There will be more oil supply coming from the Middle East in July. Meanwhile, global demand growth remains weak. In other words, there is plenty of oil available.' S&P Global Commodity Insights expects supply to outstrip demand by 1.2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025, contrary to the same period in 2024 when demand exceeded supply, followed by a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2026.
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Business Standard
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Israel-Iran conflict couldn't change trajectory of global oil flows: S&P
The decision by OPEC+ members to unwind existing production cuts has led to oil supply growing quickly and prices easing after the Israel–Iran conflict, S&P Global Commodity Insights said on Wednesday. S&P expects crude supply to outstrip demand by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second half of 2025. In contrast, demand had exceeded supply during the same period in 2024. The surplus is expected to continue into 2026, though at a lower figure of 800,000 b/d. 'The underlying fundamentals of the global oil market remain profoundly unchanged. There will be more oil supply coming from the Middle East in July. Meanwhile, global demand growth remains weak. In other words, there is plenty of oil available,' Jim Burkhard, vice-president and global head of crude oil research, S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a statement. Even during the conflict, all signs pointed to more supply coming from the Middle East, not less, the analysis said. OPEC+ countries began visibly increasing production, in line with their plans to unwind cuts on an accelerated timeline. By mid-June, Saudi Arabian crude and condensate exports had increased by nearly 700,000 b/d—close to its stated monthly target. There remains over 4 million b/d of unused production capacity in the Persian Gulf region. If the tentative peace between Iran and Israel holds, S&P has flagged the possibility of trade and investment sanctions being eased or removed. This would pave the way for additional Iranian supply entering the market. Prices to moderate As a result of these trends, S&P's base case projections expect dated Brent prices to be in the $50–$60 per barrel range, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is forecast in the upper $40s to upper $50s per barrel, later this year and into 2026. Brent is a blend of crudes from the North Sea and serves as a global benchmark, while WTI is extracted in the US and is the benchmark for the American market. Partly due to this downward pressure on prices, the United States remains on track to register its first year-on-year oil production decline in nearly a decade—despite former US president Donald Trump's call to 'drill baby drill'. Total US crude oil and condensate production, including offshore, is expected to fall by 600,000 b/d from mid-2025 to the end of 2026. Meanwhile, global demand continues to grow at a weak pace. 'Annual global total oil (liquids) demand growth for 2025 continues on track to be the weakest since 2001, excluding the economic downturn during the 2008–09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, at 870,000 b/d. Demand growth in 2026 is expected to be around the same level,' S&P said.
Time of India
02-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Global oil surplus seen at 1.2 million b/d in H2 2025; Brent forecast at $50-60/bbl: S&P Global
New Delhi: Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second half of 2025, while annual demand growth is projected to be the weakest since 2001—excluding crisis years—at 870,000 b/d, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights . The energy research firm also forecasts a surplus of 800,000 b/d for the full year 2026, driven by rising output from OPEC+ countries and continued weak demand. 'The underlying fundamentals of the global oil market remain profoundly unchanged. OPEC+ members are continuing with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts. There will be more oil supply coming from the Middle East in July. Meanwhile, global demand growth remains weak. In other words, there is plenty of oil available,' said Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to the report, base case projections for Dated Brent crude oil prices are in the $50–60 per barrel range for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are expected to range between the upper $40s and upper $50s. S&P Global expects the United States to register its first year-on-year oil production decline in nearly a decade. Total U.S. crude oil and condensate output, including offshore production, is forecast to decline by 600,000 b/d from mid-2025 to end-2026. 'The price of oil and Wall Street remain the de facto regulators of U.S. crude production. The onset of conflict in Iran briefly injected a fear premium into oil prices, and fresh uncertainties do remain. But the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and the oil price trend remains the same—downward,' Burkhard added. OPEC+ countries have begun to visibly increase production in line with plans to accelerate the unwinding of earlier cuts. As of mid-June, Saudi Arabia's crude and condensate exports had increased by nearly 700,000 b/d, reaching levels aligned with its monthly target. The report notes that the Persian Gulf region still holds over 4 million b/d of spare production capacity. It also points to the uncertain possibility of additional Iranian supply coming to market if the ceasefire holds and sanctions are lifted or eased. 'A year or more into the future, could a focal point in the market be how much Iran could increase production rather than attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz or damage oil infrastructure in other countries? Perhaps. In the meantime, expect more oil supply from the Middle East, regardless,' said Ian Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Despite the recent conflict and ceasefire between Israel and Iran, S&P Global noted that the trajectory of global oil markets remains unchanged, with supply expected to continue outpacing demand and price trends pointing downward.
11-06-2025
- Business
OPEC boss slams net-zero targets, promotes big future for oil in Calgary speech
The secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries says the world's thirst for oil will continue for decades to come and investment in the sector is necessary to meet those needs. Haitham al-Ghais made his remarks in a speech to the Global Energy Show in Calgary on Tuesday, at a time when oil prices are sagging and experts predict they could fall further later this year. Simply put, ladies and gentlemen, there is no peak in oil demand on the horizon. The fact that oil demand keeps rising, hitting new records year on year, is a clear example of what I'm saying, he said in his speech. Primary energy demand is forecast to rise by 24 per cent between now and 2050, he said, surpassing 120 million barrels of oil a day. Currently, oil demand is around 103 million barrels per day. Meeting this ever-rising demand will only be possible with adequate and timely and necessary investments in the oil industry, he said, pointing to the need for $17.4 trillion US in investment over the next 25 years. Praise for Alberta oil and gas The secretary-general used his speech to compliment Alberta's oil and gas industry for its ability to grow production over the years, its technological improvements, and its role as a leader in developing carbon capture and storage facilities. He concluded his address by stating OPEC takes climate change very, very seriously, and each of its member countries have signed on to the Paris climate accord. Still, he criticized net-zero targets by companies and countries as unrealistic, fixated on deadlines and detached from reality. Instead, he said the world should be focused on reducing emissions and using all forms of energy to meet the needs of the world's growing population. In 2024, emissions from the energy sector grew by 0.8 per cent compared to 2023, according to the International Energy Agency, while the global economy expanded by more than three per cent. In Canada, the federal government is already on pace to miss its 2030 target to cut carbon emissions by at least 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Challenging times The speech comes at a time when the oilpatch is confronting weak commodity prices and many companies are pulling back on investment. OPEC countries are producing more this year, along with more output from Canada, the U.S. and Guyana. Last month, the Vienna-based cartel agreed to raise output by 411,000 barrels a day in June, speeding up the gradual return of 2.2 million barrels a day. For context, Canada produces about five million barrels per day in total. At the same time, global consumption of oil is not rising as initially expected because of slowing global trade. Demand is not falling, but we are in a period where demand growth is weak. In fact, if you take out the COVID year of 2020, the global financial crisis of '08-'09, this looks like it could be the weakest year of growth since 2001, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil research with S&P Global Commodity Insights, in an interview with CBC News. Big drop forecasted North American oil prices are averaging about $65 US per barrel in recent days, but S&P's latest oil forecast released this week anticipates prices could fall into the high-$40s per barrel later this year. We could see a significant difference in price by the end of the year compared with where we are right now. A lot depends on the economy, of course, and the concern about tariffs and OPEC+ can alter their decisions at any time. But right now, on current trends, it looks like there's going to be a lot more supply relative to demand later this year, he said. More than 30,000 people from 100 countries are expected to attend the Global Energy Show in Calgary this week. Kyle Bakx (new window) · CBC News
India Gazette
11-06-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
US faces steeper crude oil production decline than previously anticipated: S&P Global Commodity Insights
New Delhi [India], June 11 (ANI): The US is facing a deceleration of crude oil production growth in 2025 than previously anticipated, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The global commodities information services provider projects a sharper year-on-year overall production decline in 2026 in the US than previously anticipated. The latest S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook finds that the US, which has been the biggest source of global supply growth in recent years, will be 'disproportionately impacted' by a combination of sluggish global oil demand growth and supply surplus. Following the most recent decision by OPEC+ members to proceed with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts, along with supply growth elsewhere, year-on-year global crude oil (and condensate) production growth is expected to be 2.2 million barrels per day for the second half of 2025, compared to just 390,000 barrels per day of expected crude oil demand growth. S&P Global Commodity Insights said that annual global total oil (liquids) demand growth for 2025 is expected to be the weakest since 2001, excluding the economic downturn during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, averaging 770,000 barrels per day. The S&P report has revised down the crude oil price outlook, with Dated Brent ranging from the mid-USD 60s per barrel to USD 50 per barrel or below for a time (low USD 60-upper USD 40s for WTI). Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights, states, 'The oil price is currently defenseless. Seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere summer may obscure the impact for a bit, but eventually there will be too much crude oil in the market absent a change in production trends.' The report asserted that the US is expected to bear the brunt of the impacts from an oversupplied market compared to other sources of non-OPEC supply, such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil. 'The United States has been the biggest source of supply growth in recent years and a factor in OPEC+ supply restraint. Signs of weak U.S. crude supply growth and decline could begin to alter oil market psychology. However, much will still depend on the future course of OPEC+ production and oil demand,' said Ian Stewart, Associate Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights. (ANI)
