Latest news with #JoblessClaims
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Homebuilding Down, Jobless Claims Up; Fed News Later
Wednesday, June 18, 2025Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.)Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jobless Claims Tick in Per Expectations
Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, respectively. As we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last year. The trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of 2025. Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate economy. Single-family homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might start. This will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.) Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Globe and Mail
12-06-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Jobless Claims Remain Same WoW
Pre-market futures are lower this morning, on what is likely a combination of effects: Weekly Jobless Claims numbers that are pushing up through previous ranges, wholesale economic reads that were better than expected but still elevated, and a dearth of news on the pending trade agreement between the U.S. and China that President Trump announced Wednesday morning. In fairness, these futures were down ahead of these reports hitting the tape. Partly, especially on the blue-chip Dow, due to a tragic plane crash in the city of Ahmedabad in the western region of Gujarat in India. The jet was a Dreamliner 787-8, and while details on why the crash happened — to say nothing of the 242 people aboard the plane, and those in the apartment buildings where the plane crashed — have yet to be determined, Boeing BA shares are down -7% on this news. This all said, the Dow is -225 points at this moment in today's pre-market, the S&P 500 is -25 and the Nasdaq is -85 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -15 points at this hour. We were at weekly and monthly highs just yesterday morning, but it looks as if we may need to earn that level again from here. Weekly Jobless Claims Keep Warming Up Thursday morning almost always brings Weekly Jobless Claims, and today is no exception. Initial Jobless Claims came in at +248K, equalling the previous week's upwardly revised tally and higher than expectations by about 2K or so. The trailing 4-week average in new claims is now +240K; the 4-week average directly prior was +231K. Continuing Claims notched its third-straight week above the 1.9 million threshold: 1.956 million, to be exact — above the 1.902 million the prior week and the highest single week on longer-term claims since mid-November of 2021. Over the past couple months, 1.9 million reports would be revised downward by the next week, displaying an ebb-and-flow on longer-term jobless claims. Now we're inching closer to 2 million per week, which will change the narrative on the jobs market once it arrives. PPI Wholesale Prices Cool Near-Term The May Producer Price Index (PPI) is the wholesale side of prices, out a day following the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which represents the retail side. Headline PPI month over month came in at +0.1%, down from the +0.2% expected and swinging to a positive from the upwardly revised -0.2% for April. Stripping out food and energy prices, core PPI month over month also reached +0.1%, 20 basis points (bps) lower than expected and up from -0.2% the previous month. Year over year, PPI headline reached +2.6% for May, 10 bps higher than the upwardly revised +2.5% for April. This is notching the wrong direction again, but still well off the 3%+ prints on headline PPI from late '24/early '25. Core PPI year over year reached +3.0%, down 20 bps month over month and off the 12-month high in March of +3.9%. Much as the CPI data showed us yesterday, inflation — while range-bound somewhere north of optimum rates from the Fed's perspective — is no longer out of control. The tariff issue is still unresolved, ultimately — the expiration of reciprocals is now T-27 days (barring a future change in tariff policy from the White House) — but kept at current levels, we can see the economy grinding along. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2024. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. The Boeing Company (BA): Free Stock Analysis Report
Bloomberg
12-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Traders Resume Fully Pricing In Two Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Traders are once again fully pricing in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year as reports on US producer prices and jobless claims support a rally in the bond market. US Treasuries surged across maturities on Thursday, sending yields down six to seven basis points to the lowest levels in a week and erasing what remained of the moves sparked by strong May employment data. The rally lowered the expected yield for an auction of 30-year bonds later in the session to around 4.84%. It peaked this week at around 4.98%.
