Latest news with #Jobseeker
NZ Herald
14 hours ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
Never mind the swear words, politicians need to raise debate quality
I don't believe people are genuinely shocked by the language we're all hearing every night on our streaming TV shows. What is shocking is the standard of argument being employed by politicians and parties as they seek to score points with silly populist arguments. On my Facebook and Instagram feeds, the Labour Party has been trying to tell me that the Government is to blame for soaring butter prices. It has posted a chart of butter prices pointing out that they have doubled since the National-led coalition came to power. That's annoyed me on a number of levels. Despite the fact it seems to enrage many Kiwis, soaring dairy prices are clearly a net gain for the economy. We sell a lot more internationally than we consume locally and the current dairy price spike is expected to bring in an additional $10 billion in export revenue over this year and next. It's exactly what our economy needed. The impact on consumers is overstated. Butter prices have doubled in two years. You used to be able to get a 500g block for about $4.50 now it's about $8.50. That's an extra $4 a week, far less than petrol prices fluctuate on a regular basis. Also, there are numerous butter substitutes and blends that haven't risen nearly that much. I understand why someone on the Labour Party team has tried to milk the dairy price story (sorry for the pun). It is a headline grabber and an easy online meme. I bet the analytics on it look great. But it makes no sense in the real world. The Government has no control over international dairy prices. There are things a government could do to reduce the cost of butter for local consumers. They could subsidise the price with taxpayer money. Or they could impose price controls on farmers and force them to sell a certain amount locally. These would be terrible policies, and there is no chance Labour is about to adopt them. So butter prices would be exactly the same right now if they had won the last election. More broadly, inflation is running rampant like it was throughout 2021 and 2022. It has edged up to 2.5% but remains within the Reserve Bank's 1-3% target band. The same Stats NZ release that included the butter price graph also pointed out that annual rent price increases haven't been below 2.8% since 2011. Of course, much lower inflation isn't all good news. The fact it is underperforming so badly is giving economists confidence that inflation will stay subdued. The economy is struggling to get any momentum and there is no doubt a lot of people are doing it tough. There's no shortage of real issues with this recovery, which the current Government ought to take some responsibility for. Labour could legitimately be attacking the Government on unemployment and job security. There are tens of thousands more people on the Jobseeker benefit now than there were when Labour was in power. I don't mean to single out Labour either. The National Party spent a lot of time in opposition attacking Labour for letting those Jobseeker numbers rise. It also drives me crazy when the Government holds press conferences after the Official Cash Rate announcement to take credit for falling interest rates. Interest rates are falling because inflation is under control and the economy is underperforming. If they go much lower, it will be because things are getting worse, not better. Meanwhile, in the past week, we've had David Seymour running 'victim of the day' social media attacks on opponents of his regulatory standards bill. Seymour says he is being 'playful' and having 'fun' with his line, suggesting opponents are suffering from 'Regulatory Standards Derangement Syndrome'. Surely if the bill is worth putting before Parliament, then it must have been aimed at delivering some sort of meaningful change to the status quo. Let's have a grown-up debate about what that intended change is. What's frustrating about political debate in 2025 is that politicians are so quick to build 'straw man' arguments because they seem easy to sell as memes and headlines. A 'straw man', for the record, is where you present a weak version or flawed version of your opponent's argument so you can easily dismiss it. It's lazy and doesn't do anything to boost the quality of policy-making in this country. It's probably too much to ask, but wouldn't it be nice if our politicians were confident enough in their view to employ the opposite of a 'straw man' argument? That's called a 'steel-man' argument. It requires you to consciously present the strongest and most charitable version of your opponent's argument. Then you explain why it still doesn't stack up. It requires you to do a bit of homework and think through the logical basis for your argument. I'm pretty sure all the leaders of our political parties are smart enough to do that. But we seem to be following a depressing international trend which sees social media debate reduce everything to simplistic points which appeal to an increasingly tribal political base. New Zealand has a cyclical recovery underway that would have happened, at a greater or lesser pace, regardless of who was in power. Scrapping over that is pointless. We need to be looking ahead to how we lift the economy at a structural level and enable higher levels of cyclical growth. That requires some serious work and will need a higher quality of debate than what we've been seeing this year. This column will take a two-week break as the author is on holiday with his family. Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for theNew Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined theHeraldin 2003.
NZ Herald
4 days ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
Inside Economics: Why do we need more migrants when there are 200,000 people on the dole? Plus the lessons from the Iran conflict
Where are these immigrants going to find work when they do arrive, or do they head to the nearest Winz office? It would be helpful if the writer would expand his thoughts and explain exactly how 30,000-40,000 immigrants arriving each year would be gainfully employed. Regards, Graeme Etheridge A: A fair question from Hawke's Bay reader Graeme, who submitted this as a letter to the editor. At face value, you might wonder why we need immigrants when we also have a large number of people on the dole. The first point I'd make is that immigrants buy houses and cars and consume goods, adding to the size of the overall economy. They also start businesses and employ people. So if immigrants are coming with financial means and skills then they can grow the economy. The second point is that New Zealand's natural population is barely self-replacing. Given our ageing population, there are considerably more people retiring than there are entering the workforce. Zero-immigration experiment You only have to look back as far as 2021 to see what happened to the economy when the borders were closed and we didn't have immigration. We had an immediate labour shortage. While this pushed wages up and was initially a good thing for many workers, the economy quickly hit capacity and then headed into inflationary territory. Unemployment technically fell to a historic low at 3.2%. But we still had 185,000 people on the Jobseeker benefit during that period. As with the number you mention above, it's important to remember that the large number on the Jobseeker benefit is partly due to what used to be called 'sickness beneficiaries' being included in the Jobseeker category. A more direct comparison with those we might have once described as being on 'the dole' is the sub-category 'Jobseeker Work-ready'. Currently, of the 210,000 people on the Jobseeker benefit you mention, just 117,426 people are work-ready. This was up 9132 or 8.4% when compared with March 2024. Clearly now, as unemployment is rising, isn't the time for an influx of immigrants. But this tends to be a self-regulating issue. People don't come to the country when employment prospects are low. Right now, our net migration gain is just 21,000 – the lowest it has been (outside Covid years) since 2014. Back in 2021, when employers were crying out for workers, there were still 106,000 people on the Jobseeker benefit classified as work-ready. It's not a fact we as a nation should be proud of, but many of those 106,000 were not really work-ready. For a variety of social reasons, they have fallen outside the system, have missed out on a good education and aren't going to fill skills gaps in the labour force any time soon. If you're suggesting we should do more as a society to address these issues and make sure all Kiwis have the capacity to be productive members of the workforce, then I'm with you. Addressing the wasted human potential caused by social inequality would be a great way to lift the productivity of the nation. But we also need to be realistic. Post-Covid surge Anyway, when we opened the borders in 2022, immigration rates went through the roof. We saw the net gain peak at a record 138,000 people in the year to October 2023. That is unsustainably high. But it is worth noting that massive population growth did not push unemployment up massively. After that period of record migration gains, unemployment was still sitting at just 4% at the start of 2024, well below New Zealand's historical average. It was only in 2024, when Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth faltered, that unemployment started rising sharply. I think there is a sweet spot for the scale of net immigration gain where it adds growth to the economy without putting too much pressure on infrastructure and resources. Economists will argue about where that sweet spot is. But then, hey, when did economists ever agree on anything? The economy seemed to be doing very well, with a 50,000-70,000 net gain through the Sir John Key years. But I think ultimately we put more pressure on housing and infrastructure than we were able to deal with. Anyway, I suggested a steady net gain of around 30,000-40,000 in my article. That's roughly in line with what some demographers – such as Professor Paul Spoonley – have suggested. You could make the case for a lower number or make the case for a higher number. But I'd be sceptical of claims that New Zealand would thrive without any net migration gain. I think the economy would lose momentum and we'd start to see deflation, as they have done in places like Japan. What's ultimately more important than the exact number of migrants is that we develop a stable long-term policy to ensure we can manage population growth. It would be good for our economic stability to avoid the kind of large peaks and troughs we've been through in the past few decades. And if you run high net migration and book the economic gains, then it is important to balance the ledger by investing appropriately in new housing and infrastructure. But once again, I'd stress, this is where the issues lie around immigration – much more so than employment, which fluctuates much more based on the level of activity and confidence in the economy. Iran conflict – crisis and confusion When I started the first draft of Inside Economics on Monday morning, there was panic about oil prices and the sharemarket as the world sought to make sense of the US bombing of Iran's nuclear sites. At the time of writing (on Tuesday), oil prices have plunged, sharemarkets have spiked. Iran has fired missiles. Oil prices dipped back to the level they were before Israel bombed Iran. Am I prepared to make any assumptions about what will be happening on the markets by the time you read this? No, that would be nuts. Financial market sentiment can turn on a dime – and economic sentiment isn't much less fickle this year. I think one of the most important things that economy watchers can take from the events of the past few weeks is that we should be wary of making assumptions. Will we see Donald Trump's big tariffs reinstated? If so, how will markets react? Who would know? Photo / Getty Images We're in a highly volatile period for geopolitical events. We can't pick what will happen next, and we can't even pick which events will rattle markets or feed inflation. That's why the Reserve Bank will likely keep its pathway for interest rates fluid. It can't provide more certainty with its forecasts because that would be delusional. It may well pause and keep its powder dry on July 9 by keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold. It's worth noting that July 9 will also mark the end of the three-month pause that US President Donald Trump called for his 'Liberation Day' tariffs. Will we see the big tariffs reinstated? If so, how will markets react? Who would know? The Reserve Bank meets again to produce a full Monetary Policy Statement on August 20, which isn't so far away. Perhaps by then, things will all be a lot clearer ... (if anyone from DB is reading, feel free to put that line on a Tui billboard). Forecast downgrade The buzz about last week's strong first-quarter GDP results was somewhat muted by the knowledge that data we'd already seen for the second quarter suggested slowing growth. So it's not hugely surprising to see that ANZ economists have downgraded their forecasts for the second quarter – from 0.4% to 0.1%. The move incorporated some 'payback' from the first-quarter bounce and centralised some of the weaker, higher-frequency data that we'd seen already, ANZ economist Matthew Galt said. 'Looking through the near-term noise, the economic recovery that started in the last three months of 2024 is expected to continue in 2025, albeit with a slight delay versus our previous forecast.' Underlying momentum would gather pace in 2026, Galt said. 'We expect annual average growth to come in at 0.9% over 2025, rising to 2.4% in 2026, and 2.7% in 2027 as the economy returns to trend.' So the good news is that we're still headed in the right direction, things are just taking their time to improve. 'Underpinning this forecast, net exports are expected to hand the baton of growth to domestic demand over the coming year, with private consumption supported by easier monetary conditions and an eventual recovery in labour market conditions,' Galt said. ANZ expects the unemployment rate to peak in the next couple of quarters and to start to decline from year-end. Business investment is also expected to lift. 'Ongoing fiscal consolidation means the government consumption share of GDP is expected to drift a little lower from here as private sector shares (household consumption and business investment) recover.' In a similar post-GDP note, BNZ's Doug Steel picks flat growth in the second quarter. 'Last week's GDP data confirmed decent growth in the first quarter of the year. But timely indicators suggest there has been a sharp slowdown since then,' Steel said. 'The economy looks to have struggled to grow at all in [the second quarter].' Steel described the failure of the economy to fire, despite positive tailwinds from higher export income and lower rates, as concerning. 'This trajectory is important to monitor, along with its implication for a heavily negative output gap and influence on core inflation over the medium term.' A critical part of monitoring the economy's trajectory and pressure on resources will be in upcoming confidence surveys, he said. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research releases its Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion on July 1. ANZ's consumer and business confidence surveys drop this Friday and Monday, respectively. Inside Economics takes a break ... This column will take a break for the next two weeks (the school holidays) so the author can spend some much-needed time worrying about getting his children to the right places on time, instead of worrying about the economy. Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003. To sign up to his weekly newsletter, click on your user profile at and select 'My newsletters'. For a step-by-step guide, click here. If you have a burning question about the quirks or intricacies of economics send it to or leave a message in the comments section.
Sky News AU
6 days ago
- General
- Sky News AU
Reality of renting in Australia: Roaches, mould, fear of eviction and rent hikes
Twenty per cent of Australian rentals have mouldy bathrooms, a new survey has found. Research from the Australian Council of Social Service and the University of NSW has found on top of the mouldy bathrooms, some 70 per cent of tenants are too scared to ask for repair work for fear of copping a rent increase. 'This report validates what renters across Australia already know. Despite extensive rental laws on paper, this report exposes the stark gap between legislation and reality for Australian renters,' National Association of Renters' Organisations spokesman Leo Patterson Ross said. 'Weak oversight of rental costs, property standards and industry practices have denied renters the benefits of a safe, stable and healthy home.' The social services council and university surveyed 1019 people who rent in the private sector across the country. The survey found 73 per cent of renters had a rent increase in the past year; a third of renters said a 5 per cent hike would make it difficult to cover rent. About one-in-three rental houses had cockroaches or ants, a quarter had leaks or flooding and 18 per cent had mould in the bathroom. Tenants fear that asking for repairs to be done can lead to rent hikes (68 per cent) or evictions (56 per cent). Social services council chief executive, Cassandra Goldia, said the housing market was failing. 'It is completely unacceptable that people in the private rental market are nervous about asking for essential repairs because they fear a rent increase or eviction notice,' Dr Goldie said. 'Everyone deserves to be able to live in secure homes without the constant fear of losing their home. 'We urge state and federal governments to work together to cap rent increases, abolish no-grounds evictions and boost social housing to ensure people on low incomes have safe, secure and affordable homes.' The university, social services council, National Shelter and the National Association of Renters' have identified five points to address concerns stemming from the report. First, legislated national limits on the amount and frequency of rent increases. No-grounds evictions and further renter protections are the second point the group says need to be addressed. Funding boosts to tenant advice services, raising income support and Jobseeker payments and finally a boost to the number of social houses are on the group's to-do list.
Perth Now
6 days ago
- General
- Perth Now
Reality of renting in Australia: Roaches, mould, fear of eviction and rent hikes
Twenty per cent of Australian rentals have mouldy bathrooms, a new survey has found. Research from the Australian Council of Social Service and the University of NSW has found on top of the mouldy bathrooms, some 70 per cent of tenants are too scared to ask for repair work for fear of copping a rent increase. 'This report validates what renters across Australia already know. Despite extensive rental laws on paper, this report exposes the stark gap between legislation and reality for Australian renters,' National Association of Renters' Organisations spokesman Leo Patterson Ross said. 'Weak oversight of rental costs, property standards and industry practices have denied renters the benefits of a safe, stable and healthy home.' The social services council and university surveyed 1019 people who rent in the private sector across the country. The survey found 73 per cent of renters had a rent increase in the past year; a third of renters said a 5 per cent hike would make it difficult to cover rent. About one-in-three rental houses had cockroaches or ants, a quarter had leaks or flooding and 18 per cent had mould in the bathroom. Tenants fear that asking for repairs to be done can lead to rent hikes (68 per cent) or evictions (56 per cent). Camera Icon A survey of 1000 Australian renters found 20 per cent have mouldy bathrooms. Credit: Supplied Social services council chief executive, Cassandra Goldia, said the housing market was failing. 'It is completely unacceptable that people in the private rental market are nervous about asking for essential repairs because they fear a rent increase or eviction notice,' Dr Goldie said. 'Everyone deserves to be able to live in secure homes without the constant fear of losing their home. 'We urge state and federal governments to work together to cap rent increases, abolish no-grounds evictions and boost social housing to ensure people on low incomes have safe, secure and affordable homes.' The university, social services council, National Shelter and the National Association of Renters' have identified five points to address concerns stemming from the report. First, legislated national limits on the amount and frequency of rent increases. No-grounds evictions and further renter protections are the second point the group says need to be addressed. Funding boosts to tenant advice services, raising income support and Jobseeker payments and finally a boost to the number of social houses are on the group's to-do list.
Perth Now
6 days ago
- General
- Perth Now
‘Mould': Horror truth about renting in Oz
Twenty per cent of Australian rentals have mouldy bathrooms, a new survey has found. Research from the Australian Council of Social Service and the University of NSW has found on top of the mouldy bathrooms, some 70 per cent of tenants are too scared to ask for repair work for fear of copping a rent increase. 'This report validates what renters across Australia already know. Despite extensive rental laws on paper, this report exposes the stark gap between legislation and reality for Australian renters,' National Association of Renters' Organisations spokesman Leo Patterson Ross said. 'Weak oversight of rental costs, property standards and industry practices have denied renters the benefits of a safe, stable and healthy home.' A survey of 1000 Australian renters found 20 per cent have mouldy bathrooms. Supplied Credit: Supplied The social services council and university surveyed 1019 people who rent in the private sector across the country. The survey found 73 per cent of renters had a rent increase in the past year; a third of renters said a 5 per cent hike would make it difficult to cover rent. About one-in-three rental houses had cockroaches or ants, a quarter had leaks or flooding and 18 per cent had mould in the bathroom. Tenants fear that asking for repairs to be done can lead to rent hikes (68 per cent) or evictions (56 per cent). Social services council chief executive, Cassandra Goldia, said the housing market was failing. 'It is completely unacceptable that people in the private rental market are nervous about asking for essential repairs because they fear a rent increase or eviction notice,' Dr Goldie said. Advocates say there are large gaps between rental laws and the protections for tenants in reality. NewsWire / David Crosling Credit: News Corp Australia 'Everyone deserves to be able to live in secure homes without the constant fear of losing their home. 'We urge state and federal governments to work together to cap rent increases, abolish no-grounds evictions and boost social housing to ensure people on low incomes have safe, secure and affordable homes.' The university, social services council, National Shelter and the National Association of Renters' have identified five points to address concerns stemming from the report. First, legislated national limits on the amount and frequency of rent increases. No-grounds evictions and further renter protections are the second point the group says need to be addressed. Funding boosts to tenant advice services, raising income support and Jobseeker payments and finally a boost to the number of social houses are on the group's to-do list.
