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CNBC
03-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
What Wall Street is saying about the stronger-than-expected jobs report
Wednesday's private payrolls report from ADP had the Street on edge heading into Thursday's release of the government' nonfarm payrolls number. Investors can breathe easier now. The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, topping a Dow Jones consensus forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate also ticked down to 4.1%, while economists had expected an increase to 4.3%. The numbers came one day after ADP reported that U.S. private payrolls decreased by 33,000 jobs last month, raising concern that the government's figures would reflect a much more dire economic picture. Stock futures popped Thursday after 8:30 a.m. ET but quickly pared those gains. S & P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were last up around 0.1%, along with those tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gains were likely capped because the positive report lowers the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Here's what some strategists and investors on Wall Street had to say about the latest U.S. employment report: Joe Gaffoglio, President and CEO at Mutual of America Capital Management: "The June jobs report continues to demonstrate resilience across the labor market, even as certain sectors such as manufacturing continue to lag. The unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.1%, and real average hourly earnings for employees experienced its largest increase of the year." Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates at BMO: "Overall, it was a strong set of data that implies the Fed will remain on hold later this month, leaving rate cut expectations focused on the September FOMC meeting." Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial: "If businesses keep expanding payrolls like they've done so far this year, the Fed can comfortably sit in 'wait and see' mode at the upcoming policy meeting. Uncertainty around tariffs and trade have apparently not spooked businesses into shedding workers." Simon Dangoor, head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: "Today's stronger jobs report confirms a still resilient U.S. labor market, defying, at least for now, the signs of weakness seen in some leading indicators. The FOMC's conviction that it should hold its wait-and-see stance while it braces for an acceleration in inflation over the summer will only be strengthened. But we still see a path to a resumption of the Fed's easing cycle later in the year should the summer acceleration in inflation prove more modest than expected." Allison Schrager, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, in a CNBC " Squawk Box " interview: "I feel like we keep looking for the shoe to drop, but we keep getting good reports. It's not just this employment report, it was also JOLTS. It's also inflation. And for right now, the economy looks pretty strong. It's still keeping on, keeping on, despite all this uncertainty, despite all this tariffs. I guess we can't explain it, but at the very least, I don't see how the Fed could justify cutting rates right now." Eric Merlis, co-head of global markets at Citizens: "The labor market remained resilient in June despite tariff uncertainty and elevated geopolitical concerns. Wages also proved stable and showed no signs of accelerating despite the improvement in the unemployment rate. The stability in labor conditions should give the Fed leeway to maintain its wait-and-see stance until it has greater clarity about how evolving policies may impact the economy." Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments: "The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut. Today's report saw a trifecta of positives that should send the labor bears back into hibernation: a drop in the unemployment rate, a solid beat on headline job creation vs. consensus and positive revisions to the prior two months. Softer average hourly earnings (wage) gains suggest that a wage-price inflationary spiral shouldn't be a near-term concern, setting up something resembling a goldilocks scenario." Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics: "Despite a 200,000 increase in the population, the labour force declined by 130,000 last month, suggesting that ICE raids may be keeping immigrants away from work. Paired with the 93,000 gain in the household measure of employment, this meant the unemployment rate fell back to 4.1% – its lowest since the start of the year. We expect this to be a running theme over the next few months, as lower immigration reduces the number of new jobs the economy needs to add in order to keep a lid on the unemployment rate." Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies: "We had thought that soft payroll data would open the door for a July rate cut, and an increased probability in market pricing for as many as 4 rate cuts in 2025. This data isn't enough to shift the consensus as it provides enough mixed details for investors and policymakers to cherry-pick supports for their pre-existing narratives. We take the overall view that the data is soft, but the market is correct to hold steady on pricing for rate cuts, especially since the CPI data due out on July 15 is likely to be firmer than what we have seen in recent months." Lara Castleton, U.S. head of portfolio construction and strategy at Janus Henderson Investors: "These numbers demonstrate economic resilience despite expectations for slowdowns on the backs of tariff and fiscal uncertainty. While many will not want to believe this solidifies a strong labor market, especially on the backs of a negative ADP print, what this print does solidify is the Fed does not have the data to contemplate a cut in July." Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chair, on "Squawk Box:" "This is an economy that's driven by the service sector that still seems healthy. So overall, this is a check plus. This is a good labor market report." Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management: "Given the strong jobs numbers along with the extension of tax cuts and potentially higher tariff levels (once the 90-day pause expires), the Fed is much less likely to cut rates this month than many were talking about earlier this week." — CNBC's Alex Harring, Brian Evans, Jesse Pound, Sarah Min, John Melloy and Christina Cheddar-Berk contributed reporting.
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US added 139K jobs in May, in line with expectations
The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May and the jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. The May jobs report showed the U.S. economy keeping pace despite uncertainty driven by President Trump's trade policy, largely matching the expectations of economists. The U.S. was projected to add roughly 125,000 jobs, according to consensus estimates. Employment growth in May was concentrated in health care and hospitality jobs while many other sectors stayed flat. Health care gained 62,000 jobs, exceeding recent averages, with about 60,000 jobs added between hospital services and ambulatory care services. Hospitality jobs were up by 48,000. Employment stayed mostly flat across construction, warehousing, manufacturing, transportation, and mining. Wages grew by 0.4 percent to hit an average of $36.24 in May. Wage growth has been trending down in recent months, though it has been outpacing declining inflation. 'May's healthy jobs report highlights ongoing stability in the labor market, signaling that an economic slowdown is not imminent and that the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates,' Joe Gaffoglio, CEO of Mutual Of America Capital Management, said in a commentary. The healthy jobs number likely strengthens the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see posture when it comes to cutting interest rates. The U.S. central bank has left rates at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent since January after starting to cut them last year, citing policy uncertainty and Trump's trade war as reasons to hold off from cuts. This has led to tensions with Trump, who has blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his reluctance to spur the economy with lower interest rates in the face of his trade war, which is expected to add to inflation. A weak ADP Research Institute private employment report from earlier this week prompted additional criticism from Trump. ADP clocked just 37,000 new jobs added in April off predictions of more than 100,000. The ADP survey has had some reliability issues compared to government surveys during the postpandemic period. 'ADP number out. 'Too Late' Powell must now lower the rate. He is unbelievable. Europe has lowered nine times,' the president commented in a Truth Social post this week. Following government cost-cutting efforts undertaken by the Trump administration, the May jobs report showed a decrease in federal employment of 22,000 jobs. Federal employment is down by about 60,000 jobs since the beginning of the year. Cuts have been made at numerous agencies, including the IRS and the US Agency for International Development. 'All things considered, this is a good jobs report. The labor market continues to slow steadily, but the sky is not falling,' Olu Sonola, US economist with Fitch Ratings, said. 'Given the backdrop of trade policy uncertainties, the Fed will be relieved with this report. Labor force participation declined in May, dropping to 62.4 percent from 62.6 percent in April and eliciting some concern from economists. The size of the labor force declined slightly in May after increasing in April. 'Beneath the surface, there are a number of blemishes to be found. Labor force participation declined and sector participation in job creation was less than consistent,' Bankrate economic analyst Mark Hamrick commented. Updated at 9:13 a.m. EDT Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Miami Herald
02-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
April jobs report shows modest hiring slowdown but still solid labor market
The U.S. economy had another outsized month of new job gains in April, but downward revisions to prior estimates suggest some modest easing in the labor market ahead of the impact of tariffs and government-workforce cuts in coming months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 177,000 new jobs were created in April, a tally that topped Wall Street's 138,000 forecast and the downwardly revised March reading of 185,000. February's total was revised lower to a gain of 85,000. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Average hourly earnings eased as well, falling 0.2% from the previous month and slowing to an annual pace of 3.8%, just inside Wall Street's 3.9% forecast. The headline unemployment rate, which tracks only those who are actively seeking new employment, held at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 62.6%."Another stronger-than-expected jobs report is encouraging, although definitely not top of mind considering the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and global trade," said Joe Gaffoglio, president and chief executive at Mutual Of America Capital Management. "While the labor market continues to be a bright spot, that could change quickly if the imposition of tariffs leads to disruptions in supply chains and global trade." "March's 4.2% unemployment rate underscores resilience in the U.S. economy, but cracks have been forming," he added. "Job openings continue to decline and steady quit rates suggest workers are growing less confident about jumping to new roles. Given the more cautious stance both by companies and workers, ongoing job market momentum will be closely watched." U.S. stock futures extended their premarket advance following the data release, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating a 42-point opening-bell slump and the Nasdaq called 133 points higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last called 295 points higher. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields rose 5 basis points to 4.266% following the data release while rate-sensitive 2-year notes rose 3 basis points to 3.739%. More Economic Analysis: Fed inflation gauge sets up stagflation risks as tariff policies biteU.S. recession risk leaps as GDP shrinksLike it or not, the bond market rules all Earlier this week, data from payroll processing group ADP showed private sector hiring slowed sharply, falling to just 62,000 over April. Employers attempted to "reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data," Nela Richardson, the group's chief economist, said. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, meanwhile, noted that April job cuts fell sharply from the previous month, but at just over 105,400, they remained some 63% higher than over the same month in 2024 and the highest for the month of April in five years. "Though the government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month," Senior Vice President Andrew Challenger said. "Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending," The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US added 228K jobs in March, jobless rate stays flat
The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate stayed roughly even at 4.2 percent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. The monthly federal jobs report showed the labor market holding strong in March after another month of rising concern about the impact of President Trump's economic agenda and major cut to the federal workforce. March employment data came in well above economists' expectations of 135,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, according to consensus estimates. The report also showed a slight decline in federal government employment of just 40,000 jobs, far fewer than the more than 216,000 federal job cuts tracked by Challenger, Christmas and Gray in March. The combination of a strong jobs numbers, sticky inflation over the past few months, and sweeping new tariffs suggests the Federal Reserve will continue its pause on interest rate cuts. The central bank held interbank lending rates steady at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent in its first two meetings of this year. 'The solid March jobs report highlights an economy that remains resilient despite sticky inflation, a drop in consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding the impacts from recently introduced tariffs,' Joe Gaffoglio, president of Mutual of America Capital Management, wrote in a commentary. 'With inflation stuck well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target and uncertainty over tariffs, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon.' Federal government employment showed a decline of 4,000 jobs from February to March after an initiative by the Trump administration to pare the federal workforce. Cuts have been made to agencies including the IRS, USAID and other agencies. Government employment was up overall, with states adding 6,000 jobs and local governments adding 17,000 jobs on the month. Jobs numbers were revised down by nearly 50,000 across the first two months of the year, with 111,000 jobs added in January and 117,000 jobs added in February. The retail sector added 24,000 jobs in March, health care added 54,000 jobs, and the transportation and warehousing sector added 23,000 jobs. The March report comes at the end of a tumultuous week for the U.S. economy and financial markets, which have plunged in the wake of Trump's sweeping new tariffs. The stock market suffered Thursday its worst day of losses since 2020 after Trump imposed Wednesday a 10 percent universal tariff and effective import tax rates of up to 54 percent on other nations. Trump's new tariffs followed his prior imposition of import taxes on Canadian and Mexican goods, foreign metal and imported autos and auto parts. The president is on track to raise import taxes by roughly $600 billion, according to analyst estimates, even as the economy already showed signs of slowing earlier this year. Developing Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Miami Herald
04-04-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
March jobs report provides relief, but markets brace for weakness
The U.S. economy added a bigger-than-expected tally of net new jobs last month, data indicated Friday, providing markets with a small kernel of relief amid the extended tariff-triggered selloff. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 228,000 new jobs were created in March, a tally that topped Wall Street's 140,000 forecast and the downwardly-revised February reading of 117,000. January's tally was revised to a gain of 111,000. Average hourly earnings were steady in March, rising 0.3% from the previous month, but slowed to an annual pace of 3.8%, just inside Wall Street's 3.9% forecast. The headline unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate slipped 0.2 percentage point to 62.5%. "The solid March jobs report highlights an economy that remains resilient despite sticky inflation, a drop in consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding the impacts from recently introduced tariffs," said Joe Gaffoglio, CEO and president at Mutual Of America Capital Management. "With inflation stuck well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and uncertainty over tariffs, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon, and may only begin to reevaluate this position should the job market deteriorate more significantly." U.S. stock futures pared some of their premarket declines following the data release, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating a 135 point opening bell slump and the Nasdaq called 480 points higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last called 1,050 lower. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields rose 1 basis point to 3.905% following the data release while rate-sensitive 2-year notes also rose 1 basis point to 3.565%. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.1% lower at 101.911, the lowest since October. Related: Trump tariffs raise U.S. recession and stagflation risks Earlier this week, data from Challenger Gray showed corporate layoffs for the month of March nearly doubled from last year to 172,0107, with the DOGE-lead overhaul of the federal workforce accounting for 280,253 layoffs over the past two months. Payroll processing group ADP, meanwhile, reported a firmer-than-expected total of around 155,000 in terms of private sector job creation, despite the economic uncertainty and a pullback in consumer sentiment. More Economic Analysis: Gold's price hit a speed bump; where does it go from here?7 takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarksRetail sales add new complication to Fed rate cut forecasts Weakening U.S. growth, however, and the prospect of a near-term recession tied to President Trump's tariff regime, has boosted bets for deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts over the coming year. The CME Group's FedWatch now suggests a 42.5% chance of a quarter point reduction in May, up from just 18.5% last week, and indicates at least three rate cuts, and possibly four, by early December. Related: ADP jobs report suggests little tariff impact on private-sector hiring "Retaliatory tariffs and slower global trade could weigh on exports and financial markets, said Nuwan Jayawardana, director of investment research at Acuity Knowledge Partners. "This could amplify recessionary risks and push the Fed to provide monetary cushioning, especially if fiscal tools prove to be politically constrained," he added. The most likely Fed path after 'Liberation Day' is a pause or further hikes as cost-push inflation plays out," Jayawardana said. "However, a pivot to rate cuts is plausible – and potentially swift – if the tariffs do more economic damage than anticipated." The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
