Latest news with #JohannMCherian
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Sterling slips as weak growth data fuels rate cut expectations
By Johann M Cherian (Reuters) -Sterling slipped on Friday and was trading close to a more than two-week low after data showed the UK economy contracted for the second month, boosting expectations that the Bank of England could lower borrowing costs next month. Gross domestic product shrank by 0.1% after a 0.3% drop in April, the Office for National Statistics said, primarily dragged by weakness in industrial and construction output. "Though it would be wrong to conclude from the GDP data alone that the economy is coming under greater pressure, there are genuine questions emanating from the jobs market and whether it is beginning to fall apart more quickly," said James Smith, an economist at ING. "For the (BoE), it would likely force a rethink on the pace of rate cuts. Until now, officials have appeared highly reluctant to move beyond their recent, gradual once-per-quarter cutting pace." The pound weakened 0.26% to $1.354, while against the euro it slipped 0.2% to 86.35 pence. Yields on short-term gilts, often a reflection of interest rate expectations, were steady after easing about two basis points earlier in the day. Traders are now pricing in a 78.3% chance the BoE could deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in August, versus the 64% probability they were pricing in two weeks ago, data compiled by LSEG showed. Friday's data adds to worries for finance minister Rachel Reeves, with economists saying it looks likely she will need to raise taxes again in the upcoming Autumn budget as the government strives to balance its public accounts. UK markets took a beating last week after the Labour government was forced to pass a highly contested welfare bill that did little to make good on the spending cuts initially hoped for and heightened the uncertainty regarding the sustainability of government finances. Globally, investors were rattled by U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff escalation as he said he would impose a 35% rate on Canadian imports next month, while other trading partners are likely to face blanket levies of 15% or 20%. The pound firmed 0.5% against the Canadian dollar and last fetched C$1.855. Analysts have said that Britain's deal with the U.S. has made it less exposed to uncertainty on the trade front, which was also reflected in the pound's 8% rise against the U.S. dollar so far this year.
Daily Maverick
17-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Stocks slip, oil jumps as Trump calls for Tehran evacuation
Geopolitical tensions keep markets on edge as Trump urges Tehran evacuation Gold prices edge higher, crude prices climb as much as 1% Markets await BOJ decision, keen on bond-tapering plans By Johann M Cherian June 17 (Reuters) – US stock futures slipped and oil prices rose on Tuesday, as investors were rattled by US President Donald Trump's call for everyone to evacuate Tehran with the fifth-day of Israel-Iran fighting sowing fears of a broader regional conflict. Markets were on edge after a separate report said that Trump had asked for the national security council to be prepared in the situation room as he cut short his visit to the Group of Seven summit in Canada. Trump had earlier urged everyone to immediately evacuate Tehran, and reiterated that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal with the United States. The latest developments sparked a wave of risk-off moves in early Asian trading. S&P 500 futures fell 0.46%, European futures slumped 0.69%, while crude prices briefly jumped more than 2%. 'Suspicion is that we're about to see the US begin some sort of military action in Iran and we're now seeing some risk aversion because it brings another element of uncertainty into the market,' said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. Wall Street had closed higher on Monday after sources told Reuters that Iran was seeking a Trump-mediated immediate ceasefire with Israel, which also cooled a rally in crude prices. The Iran-Israel air war – the biggest battle ever between the two longtime enemies – escalated on Monday with Israel targeting Iran's state broadcaster and uranium enrichment facilities. The heightened uncertainty and fluid Middle East situation bolstered investor moves towards traditional safe-haven assets such as gold which rose 0.5%, while a rise in US Treasuries pushed yields lower across the curve. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was down about 2 basis points at 4.43%. The dollar firmed against the euro, yen and sterling as it reprised its role as a safe asset even as it held to broadly tighter ranges. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was a tad higher, while futures tracking Hong Kong's Hang Seng index were also marginally higher. Outside of geopolitics, interest rate decisions by a host of central banks will be the prime focus for investors this week with the Bank of Japan's verdict expected later in the day. At the end of its two-day policy meeting, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain short-term interest rates at 0.5%, but markets will be keen on the institution's outlook on quantitative tightening. Japan's Nikkei edged up 0.5%, while the yen was slightly weaker at 144.96 per dollar. Investors are expecting the BOJ to consider slowing reductions in its bond purchases next year, as the central bank focuses on avoiding big market disruptions and tries to wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus. It would be the first decision since the recent bond auctions had shown eroding appetite for freshly issued longer-dated debt and drove the country's bond yields to record highs. On Tuesday, yields on 30-year and 40-year bonds were broadly steady. In a week filled with central bank meetings across the globe, investors will be looking to comments from officials as they navigate Trump's erratic tariff policies and their impact on the global economy. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday but the focus yet again will be on the path Fed Chair Jerome Powell charts out for future rate cuts. Traders are pricing in two cuts by the end of the year. 'To be a central banker right now is one challenging job and on top of the tariff situation, the trade policy and the inking of deals before deadlines you have this uncertainty from the Middle East,' said IG's Sycamore. 'Macro backdrops don't get any more tricky than what we're seeing at this point in time.' In commodities, the risks of prolonged unrest in the Middle East and disruption to oil supply sent prices higher. Brent crude futures contract was last up 0.34% at $73.47 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude was last up 0.43% at $72.09. Gold prices were fetching $3,393.05 per ounce, up 0.3% on the day.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: No relief from US-China trade truce
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Johann M Cherian European investors are set to wake up to a souring mood as rapidly rising tensions in the Middle East and yet another tariff salvo from U.S. President Donald Trump triggered a new wave of dollar-selling and risk-off moves. The much-hyped U.S.-China talks culminated in a fragile truce that may have put a lid on simmering trade tensions between the world's top two economies for now but the lack of details has left investors unnerved. For starters, China President Xi Jinping is yet to give his approval on the 'deal'. And details on how the new tariffs will be implemented are yet to be ironed out and U.S. export restrictions on high-end artificial intelligence chips are still in place. And with the July 8 deadline on worldwide tariffs fast approaching, Trump is back to his unilateral style of policymaking as he said he would send out letters in one to two weeks outlining terms of trade to dozens of other countries, which they could embrace or reject. Markets will be hoping for another TACO moment. While backward looking inflation reports are yet to reflect the price pressures, companies are starting to sound the alarm. Zara-owner Inditex was the latest to issue a disappointing quarterly report and flag headwinds from trade uncertainty. And as if investors did not have enough to juggle with already, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are flaring, adding to the risks of rising crude prices fuelling inflation pressures. Supply concerns out of the oil-rich region pushed Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures to two-month highs of nearly $70 a barrel each. In all of this, as my colleague Jamie McGeever points out, valuations in equities and stocks are beginning to appear stretched, compounding the risks to investors in the event of a market selloff. European futures were down 0.7%, while futures in the U.S. are pointing to a lower open on Thursday, but the benchmark indexes in the regions are just about 2% away from their respective record highs. Further, investors continue to question the dollar's safe-haven status. On Thursday, the euro hit a seven-week high and is up 11% this year, poised for its biggest yearly advance since 2017. The central bank bonanza next week could perhaps throw more light on the global economy's outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve along with the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are due to announce their policy decisions. Meanwhile, investors will look for a string of UK economic data including reports on gross domestic product and manufacturing output later in the day. Both are expected to reflect a decline in activity on a monthly basis, reigned in by the BoE's cautious approach to monetary policy easing. Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday: - In the UK: GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output and trade data - In the U.S.: Producer inflation data, initial weekly jobless claims report and an auction of 30-year bonds worth $22 billion - Policymakers expected to speak include ECB's Jose Luis Escriva, Reserve Bank of Australia's David Jacobs - UniCredit CEO sees slim hopes of BPM deal, says Commerzbank too costly - Oracle raises annual forecast on robust cloud services demand - Warner Bros' credit rating downgraded to junk by Fitch on split-up (By Johann M Cherian; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
10-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
MORNING BID EUROPE-Investors itching for progress in US-China talks
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Johann M Cherian With precious little to report out of Sino-U.S. trade talks in London, investors are ready to pounce on almost any sign a thaw in the frigid relationship between the two superpowers is just around the corner. Stocks in Asia are creeping higher, as are U.S. and European equity futures, while the dollar was also a tad firmer after President Donald Trump said he was getting "good reports" from Monday's meeting with China. Talks resume at 0900 GMT on Tuesday at Lancaster House and markets want a deal to flesh out details around U.S. tech export controls and those around Chinese rare earths, and of course, where the final average rate of tariffs will settle. Recent data indicates the trade war is taking a toll on both major economies, which could soon rattle other major economies. Global investors are also in the market for fresh trade deals, with about a month left before Trump's tariff pause expires. Also expected out of the UK will be an employment report with investors and the Bank of England keen on how pay growth - a reflection of broader price pressures - fared in April. Signs of cooling wage growth could be a relief for BoE policymakers who are currently divided on the approach to further monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, the global healthcare sector was caught in the crossfire as vaccine sceptic U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired all members of a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention panel of vaccine experts. The move could be a headache for companies such as GSK , Sanofi, AstraZeneca, Moderna and BioNTech as they face longer waits for vaccine approvals. Advertising firms weren't spared from scrutiny either as the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission has sought information from some of the industry's leading firms. Omnicom, WPP, Dentsu, Interpublic Group and Publicis Groupe were among those asked by the watchdog on whether advertising and advocacy groups violated antitrust laws by coordinating boycotts of certain sites. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - UK May BRC retail sales - UK April employment data - U.S. 3-year Treasury note auction - Reserve Bank of Australia Governance Board meeting Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Investors itching for progress in US-China talks
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Johann M Cherian With precious little to report out of Sino-U.S. trade talks in London, investors are ready to pounce on almost any sign a thaw in the frigid relationship between the two superpowers is just around the corner. Stocks in Asia are creeping higher, as are U.S. and European equity futures, while the dollar was also a tad firmer after President Donald Trump said he was getting "good reports" from Monday's meeting with China. Talks resume at 0900 GMT on Tuesday at Lancaster House and markets want a deal to flesh out details around U.S. tech export controls and those around Chinese rare earths, and of course, where the final average rate of tariffs will settle. Recent data indicates the trade war is taking a toll on both major economies, which could soon rattle other major economies. Global investors are also in the market for fresh trade deals, with about a month left before Trump's tariff pause expires. Also expected out of the UK will be an employment report with investors and the Bank of England keen on how pay growth - a reflection of broader price pressures - fared in April. Signs of cooling wage growth could be a relief for BoE policymakers who are currently divided on the approach to further monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, the global healthcare sector was caught in the crossfire as vaccine sceptic U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired all members of a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention panel of vaccine experts. The move could be a headache for companies such as GSK, Sanofi, AstraZeneca, Moderna and BioNTech as they face longer waits for vaccine approvals. Advertising firms weren't spared from scrutiny either as the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission has sought information from some of the industry's leading firms. Omnicom, WPP, Dentsu, Interpublic Group and Publicis Groupe were among those asked by the watchdog on whether advertising and advocacy groups violated antitrust laws by coordinating boycotts of certain sites. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - UK May BRC retail sales - UK April employment data - U.S. 3-year Treasury note auction - Reserve Bank of Australia Governance Board meeting Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. Sign in to access your portfolio
