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Will The EU Replace NATO As Europe's Defence Shield?
Will The EU Replace NATO As Europe's Defence Shield?

Forbes

time04-07-2025

  • General
  • Forbes

Will The EU Replace NATO As Europe's Defence Shield?

The USS New Jersey, an Iowa-class battleship serving the United States Navy, firing 16-inch shells ... More into the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) from the waters off the coast of South Vietnam, 30th September 1968. These were the first shells fired by the USS New Jersey in the Vietnam War. (Photo by) It looks like I will have to burn all the Biggles books I collected as a child and jettison any antique copies of 'Eagle' comic books, because there are reports that Britain and Germany are about to sign a defence co-operation agreement, ending a long stretch of history where they have been on opposing sides. Indeed, the entire literature of what George Orwell described in his essay 'Boys' Weeklies' could now be caught offside. For instance, the work of John Buchan, once Governor General of Canada, and well known as the author of the 'Thirty Nine Steps', may be especially dislodged by an agreement that casts Germany and Britain as best geopolitical friends, as many of his books, like those of Captain W.E. John, depend on the role of the indispensable British hero seeing off his German nemesis. An innovation on the part of Buchan, was the glamorous female mastermind, Hilda von Einem, who vies with the handsome Irish intriguer Dominic Medina (please do read 'Greenmantle' and the 'Three Hostages') as the foil to Richard Hannay. One of the significant moments of history when Britain and Germany (Prussia then) found themselves on the same side was the Battle of Waterloo, one of the great contests, where during a pounding from French guns Wellington's officers asked for orders he replied, 'there are no orders, except to stand firm to the last man'. One of the survivors was Henry Percy, aide de camp to Wellington, who after the Battle had to row halfway across the Channel with the news of the Duke's victory, as an absence of wind had halted his sloop. On arriving in England he found that many (in the City) already knew of the victory owing, allegedly, to a network of agents assembled by Nathaniel Rothschild who is said to have made a fortune on the event and thereby spawned the phrase 'buy on the sound of cannons'. It is a useful illustration of the roles of communications (social media today) and finance in war. Indeed, part of the reason that Germany and Britain are moving closer together on defence (France is even closer to each one militarily) is finance. Gone are the days when London and Berlin could afford to spend 9% of GDP building great battleships in the lead-up to the First World War (Margaret MacMillan's 'The War That Ended Peace' is worth a read), and now they must do with more meagre ambitions and newfound collaborations. In this context, the recent NATO Summit was a watershed as it signalled a headline commitment to 5% defence spending across NATO countries (as a % of GDP), something that would have been unthinkable four years ago. In Europe, there is a sense that some of the defence spending pledges amount to a 'fudge', and it is very clear that defence spending as a % of GDP does not translate into defence readiness. Of the European members of NATO, the UK, Greece, France, Poland, the Nordics and Baltics are the most defence ready, and some of them are already spending ambitiously. For example, Poland is set to reach a level of defence spending of 4% of GDP and has already struck a strategic military procurement partnership with South Korea. On the other hand, countries like Italy and especially Spain have been castigated for their reluctance to spend. Italy has talked of including investment in a bridge from the mainland to Sicily as defence infrastructure and in the case of Spain, it has apparently tried to 'kitchen sink' other tangential forms of spending into the defence segment. Still, the broad 5% target is a gamechanger, and is comprised of two parts – close to 3.5% on defence spending and then 1.5% on areas like cyber security and AI driven defence capabilities. Momentum will be boosted by the EU's Eur 150 bn lending facility for defence procurement, up to Eur 3bn in loans from the EIB (European Investment Bank), and the German government's significant augmentation of its defence budget. Still, this fiscal support leaves an enormous shortfall that will likely require capital from the private sector. In this respect, we are at the cross-over of geopolitical forces. NATO as an operating construct has been thrown into doubt by Donald Trump and the actions of his defence policymakers (the latest act being to deprive Ukraine of defensive missiles). As such, Article 5 no longer seems as watertight as it did in the early 2000's (it has only been invoked once, in September 2011, by Nick Burns, then US Ambassador to NATO). The impression many in Brussels have is that Europe will be left to defend itself from Russian aggression – there is now a parlour game amongst the various European intelligence agencies to estimate when a Russian incursion might occur. As a result, the EU will become a much bigger player in defence procurement (see the recent White Paper here), Europe's defence centric innovation economy will grow rapidly, and 'war bonds' will become a new asset for investors. Europe's main threat is most obviously Russia, in addition to cyberwar from further afield. The danger in the long-term is that it finds itself as the last bastion of democracy, amidst a range of large, autocratic countries. To return to Germany and Britain, anyone who reads the MacMillan books can't escape the recognition that the arms race between Germany and Britain over one hundred years ago, is now being repeated by the US and China. Ultimately Europe may count itself lucky to stay out of this contest.

Now is the perfect time to explore the River Tweed, one of Britain's last true idylls
Now is the perfect time to explore the River Tweed, one of Britain's last true idylls

Telegraph

time08-06-2025

  • Telegraph

Now is the perfect time to explore the River Tweed, one of Britain's last true idylls

The Scottish Borders is one of the few places left in Britain where you can find breathtaking scenery and peace and quiet, and undoubtedly the Best of the Borders can be found along the River Tweed. It meanders through glorious countryside, under stately bridges, past historic country homes, romantic abbey ruins and castles, telling of a turbulent history on its 97-mile journey to that most Scottish of English towns, Berwick. Due to be ready in 2028 (hopefully before the dark towers and pylons of Net Zero cast their shadow across the valley), a new 113-mile River Tweed Trail will allow walkers and cyclists to follow one of Britain's most beautiful rivers from source to sea. Much of the trail is already in place so here are some of the highlights you can see along the way, before the crowds arrive. Mighty firs and lazy waters The river begins at Tweeds Well, 1,500 feet up in the Lowther Hills, north of Moffat, and quickly descends 1,000 feet to Peebles, past the village of Tweedsmuir, childhood home of John Buchan, author of The 39 Steps, and Dawyk Botanic Gardens, Scotland's finest arboretum, famous for its Douglas Firs. Guarding the approach to Peebles is Neidpath Castle, a 14th-century fortress with walls 11 feet thick, dramatically sited on a high rock above a bend in the river. Strawberries carved above the gateway bear witness to the original builders of the castle, the Frasers, named from ' fraisier ', derived from the French for strawberry. Peebles, girdled with wooded hills, lies on a glorious stretch of the river, spanned by an elegant stone bridge of 1467, since widened, and is a popular fishing centre. Here, the lazy waters of the Tweed form deep pools and gravelly shallows that nurture the salmon for which the Tweed is famous. Lairds and young pretenders The river heads west to Traquair, the oldest house in Scotland and one of its loveliest. It began life in the 12th century as a simple peel tower set so close to the river that the laird could fish for salmon out of his bedroom window. The river was later diverted away to its present course by James Stewart, 1st Laird of Traquair, who was killed at Flodden in 1513. His descendants still live at Traquair, the present owner being Catherine Maxwell Stuart, 21st Lady of Traquair. The present, largely 17th-century house incorporates the original tower and forms the most unpretentious and 'Scottish' of all Scotland's great houses, grey and mellowed with corbelled turrets and dormer windows. Bonnie Prince Charlie stopped by during the 1745 uprising and after he left his kinsman, the Earl of Traquair, closed the Bear Gates to the main avenue vowing they would never be opened again until a Stuart sat on the throne. 'It is a poor place, but mine own,' declared novelist Sir Walter Scott when he purchased the ramshackle farm of Cartleyhole near Melrose in 1811. Over the next 15 years he transformed the farmhouse into a grand baronial 'conundrum castle' he called Abbotsford, and filled it with Scottish memorabilia, Rob Roy's broadsword, Flora Macdonald's pocket book, the inevitable lock of Bonnie Prince Charlie's hair. Best of all is the cosy, intimate study overlooking the Tweed where Scott wrote his Waverley novels, and where he died in 1832 from the exertions of writing ceaselessly to pay off the debts of his bankrupt publishing company. The house was opened to the public in 1840 as one of Scotland's earliest tourist attractions. Melrose gathers around the warm, pink walls of its ruined abbey, the loveliest of the Border abbeys founded by David I in the 12th century, and like so many it was sacked by the English and dismantled at the Dissolution of the Monasteries. Melrose is notable for the delicacy and humour of its carvings – look out for the bagpipe-playing pig high up on a buttress – and the exquisite tracery of its great windows. Thrillingly, the embalmed heart of Robert the Bruce is buried beneath the chapter house floor. The River now dips south into Berwickshire and loops past the romantic ruins of Dryburgh Abbey, where Sir Walter Scott is buried. High above on Bermersyde Hill is Scott's View, looking west over the Tweed to the Eildon Hills. Scott would often stop there and during his funeral procession from Abbotsford to Dryburgh the horses pulling his coffin halted there of their own accord as if to give their master a last look at his beloved native land. 'The most romantic place in Scotland' Kelso, described by Scott as 'the most romantic, if not the most beautiful place in Scotland', sits by a luxurious curve of the Tweed, here joined by the Teviot. There's not much left of what was the largest of the Border abbeys, but what does survive looms over the town and is spectacular, the magnificent facade of the north transept regarded as the finest example of Norman architecture in Scotland. From the abbey, cobbled streets lead to the handsomest and largest town square in Scotland. The fine stone bridge that leads across the Tweed into the town was built in 1803 by John Rennie and provides good views of the turreted extravaganza that is Floors Castle, home of the Dukes of Roxburghe and the largest inhabited mansion in Britain. Soon the Tweed becomes the border between Scotland and England – Tweed is a Celtic word for 'border' – before reaching the clean, spacious town of Coldstream at the lowest fording point of the river. Edward I crossed here to invade Scotland in 1296, James IV and the flower of the Scots nobility crossed in the other direction on their way to defeat at Flodden in 1513. On January 1 1660 General Monk left his headquarters in Coldstream's market square and crossed into England with his Regiment of Foot to march to London and assist the restoration of Charles II. His regiment thereafter took the name Coldstream Guards and it is now the oldest continuously serving regiment in the British Army. In 1766 John Smeaton put up a fine five-arched bridge to replace the ford and a toll house on the Scottish side which became popular for runaway marriages. The waters then slip by the mighty Norman walls of Norham Castle, perched high on a grassy mound to guard another vital ford, and then pass under the Union Chain Bridge linking Scotland with England. With a span of 449 feet, this was the longest iron suspension bridge in the world when it was built in 1820 and the first in the world to carry vehicles. Downriver on the Scottish bank sits Paxton House, an elegant Palladian gem of pink sandstone designed for Patrick Home by the Adam brothers, James, John and Robert. In 1812 an east wing was added to accommodate a gallery for Home's art collection, now dispersed, and the gallery is today open to the public as part of the National Galleries of Scotland. At this point the Tweed turns for Berwick and the sea, disappearing into Northumberland for its final two miles. Where to stay Traquair is the oldest and most romantic house in Scotland, and has four spacious double bedrooms furnished with antiques and canopied beds. Rooms from £240, including breakfast. Dryburgh Abbey Hotel is a Scottish country house hotel on the River Tweed, right next to Dryburgh Abbey and perfect setting for exploring the Scottish Borders. Doubles from £146, including breakfast.

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