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Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Arkansas Supreme Court authorizes judge suspensions, orders cooperation with disciplinary probes
The Arkansas Supreme Court building in Little Rock. (John Sykes/Arkansas Advocate) A five-member majority of the Arkansas Supreme Court granted the state judicial discipline commission's request for changes to the rules for judges' and justices' conduct in a Thursday per curiam order. The changes concern accusations of judicial misconduct and disciplinary action against judges and justices who face such allegations. The divide among the Supreme Court justices who supported or dissented from the order mirrored conflicts within the court earlier this year. Chief Justice Karen Baker and Associate Justice Courtney Hudson dissented from the order. Thursday's order approved two alterations to the Judicial Code of Conduct: a new provision allowing the court to issue interim suspensions of judges accused of crimes or misconduct and an amendment that broadens an existing rule requiring cooperation with disciplinary authorities and prohibiting retaliation. According to the rule regarding suspensions, the Supreme Court may suspend a judge with pay 'upon notice of the filing of an indictment, information, or complaint charging the judge with a 'serious crime' under state or federal law.' In_re_Rule_of_Jud._Disc._Enforcement A 'serious crime' includes 'any felony or lesser crime that reflects adversely on the judge's honesty, trustworthiness or fitness as a judge in other respects' or any crime involving 'interference with the administration of justice, false swearing, misrepresentation, fraud, deceit, bribery, extortion, misappropriation, theft or an attempt, conspiracy or solicitation of another to commit a 'serious crime,'' the rule states. The rule is based on a model policy from the American Bar Association, and the Judicial Discipline and Disability Commission specifically asked the high court for the rule, according to the order. The commission investigates complaints about the conduct of judges and justices and has the authority to recommend disciplinary actions. The rule also allows suspensions for 'other misconduct,' which includes but is not limited to 'witness intimidation, retaliation, or a threat thereof.' Another portion of the code of conduct states that a judge 'shall cooperate and be candid and honest with judicial and lawyer disciplinary agencies' and must not retaliate 'against a person known or suspected to have assisted or cooperated with an investigation' of judicial misconduct. The amended provision approved by the Supreme Court majority specifies that intimidation is also prohibited and that the rule applies to 'a judge, justice, special judge/justice, judicial candidate, or judge-elect.' Earlier this year, the high court ordered the release of a report alleging that Baker harassed judiciary employees on Dec. 4-5, 2024, after she was elected but before she was sworn in as the state's first elected female chief justice. 'Justice Baker intimidated staff, appears to have targeted female employees of color, indicated an intention to retaliate based on her perception of how employees voted, and indicated an intention to retaliate based on her perception of whether employees were cooperating with Judicial Discipline and Disability Commission's investigation into her colleague's conduct,' the report from the Administrative Office of the Courts human resources department states. UPDATED: Arkansas Supreme Court chief justice harassed court staff, per human resources report Baker co-signed Hudson's dissenting opinion on Thursday's per curiam order. Hudson wrote that the rule regarding suspensions 'presents legitimate due-process concerns.' 'It contains absolutely no requirement that notice be provided to the impacted judge either before or after the interim suspension or that the judge be allowed an opportunity to respond to an allegation of misconduct,' Hudson wrote. She also raised the possibility that the rule violates the state and federal constitutions' ban on adopting rules or laws that govern conduct prior to their adoption. Associate Justice Rhonda Wood responded to Hudson's dissent with a concurring opinion. Wood argued that the new rule creates more due process for judges, not less, because it 'provides guidelines previously nonexistent.' The rule also 'sets out parameters for the current authority' that the Supreme Court has always had to suspend judges accused of misconduct and is not a completely new policy applied retroactively, Wood wrote. Judicial conduct has been at the forefront of the Arkansas Supreme Court since September 2024. Five of Hudson's colleagues referred her to the JDDC for 'flagrant breaches of confidentiality' after she filed then-Chief Justice John Dan Kemp's emails into evidence in her attempt to block the release of emails between her, Baker and others in response to a FOIA request from Arkansas Business. Arkansas Supreme Court refers one of its own for disciplinary investigation Baker dissented to Hudson's referral to JDDC, and she made transparency a focus of her successful runoff campaign against Wood to succeed Kemp, who did not run for reelection last year. Within days of taking the oath of office Jan. 1, Baker butted heads with the rest of the court over the scope of her authority as chief justice. Hudson was the only one of Baker's colleagues who did not block the chief justice's attempts to fire 10 judiciary employees and appoint three new judges to the judicial discipline body. The other five justices claimed Baker did not have the authority to make such unilateral decisions without consulting the rest of the court. Issues of judicial misconduct have not been limited to the Supreme Court this year. Former Monroe County district judge and deputy prosecutor T. David Carruth was sentenced in May to two years in federal prison for making false statements to the FBI. He had been admonished by the JDDC in 2018 for improper conduct in violation of the Judicial Code of Ethics. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Arkansas Supreme Court releases proposed rule for artificial intelligence
The Arkansas Supreme Court building in Little Rock. (John Sykes/Arkansas Advocate) The use of artificial intelligence in legal documents could violate Arkansas law or court rules, according to a proposed administrative order issued by the state Supreme Court last week. Specifically, the proposed order addresses the use of confidential court data with generative artificial intelligence. AI models retain data inputted by users of AI products, such as ChatGPT, in order to continue training the large language models that exploded into public use only a few years ago, the order notes. 'Anyone who either intentionally or inadvertantly [sic] discloses confidential or sealed information related to a client or case [to a generative AI model] may be violating established rules,' the proposed order reads, specifically citing Arkansas Supreme Court Administrative Order Number 19, the Arkansas Rules of Professional Conduct and the Arkansas Code of Judicial Conduct. Additionally, the proposed order prohibits anyone with internal access to the state's court system, CourtConnect, from 'intentionally exposing our state courts' internal data to a GAI.' The proposed order provides an exemption to this prohibition if approval is granted by the Supreme Court's Automation Committee to engage in 'a research and analysis project related to the use of generative AI tools and general AI for the benefit of our courts.' The proposed order does not appear to address questions of broader use of AI by attorneys within the state court system. Judges in courtrooms across the country in recent months have expressed frustration with attorneys who have filed briefs and other documents bearing citations to nonexistent or irrelevant cases as a result of so-called 'AI hallucinations,' leading to sanctions in some cases. As reported by the Alabama Reflector, for example, lawyers who were being paid millions by the Alabama Department of Corrections to defend it against lawsuits filed by prisoners in the state system were called out by an inmate's attorneys for making up legal citations 'out of whole cloth' in a lawsuit where their client alleged being stabbed repeatedly while in restraints. The federal judge presiding over the case said that the incident showed that sanctions levied by other courts had proven 'insufficient' to deter lawyers from filing documents with improper or made up citations created by AI. 'That causes me to consider a fuller range of sanctions,' Judge Anna M. Manasco said. The Arkansas Supreme Court Committee on Automation created a subcommittee to 'study the use of AI in the courts.' The introduction to the proposed order notes that as the committee continues its work, it will make recommendations. The comment period for the proposed administrative order ends on Aug. 1. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Traditional ‘Tornado Alley' shifts eastward as climate changes, says meteorologist studying trend
Arkansas has become more prone to tornadoes and hail storms as climate change and other weather phenomenon shift storms farther east and south, experts say. A rainbow appears after a March 31, 2023, tornado tore a path through Little Rock. (Photo by John Sykes/Arkansas Advocate) In the 30 days after several damaging twisters hit Arkansas on March 14, the state saw nearly four times as many tornado warnings as Texas did. The National Weather Service issued 144 warnings in Arkansas, compared to 39 in Texas from March 14 to April 14. Mississippi also recorded 144 warnings over the same period and Tennessee saw 125 warnings. Alabama noted 57 warnings. It's an indication that the classic 'Tornado Alley' region — the area from central Texas through Oklahoma and Kansas, so named because of the number of tornadoes there — is shifting eastward. The shift is attributed to climate change, the warming of the Gulf of Mexico's waters and a dip in the cold jet stream pattern. Arkansas, scientists say, is nearly in the bull's eye of a new tornado-prone area that's referred to as 'Dixie Alley.' The region, which has seen a vast increase in tornadoes over the past several years, also encompasses Mississippi, Alabama and western Tennessee. Weather Service survey teams have already confirmed 35 tornadoes have touched down in Arkansas through April. The state averages 42 twisters per year. The storms have also been larger. Arkansas was hit with two EF-4 twisters on March 14 — one in Jackson County and one in Izard County The last time a tornado of that strength hit the state was on April 27, 2014, when a tornado cut a 41-mile path of destruction through western Pulaski County, Mayflower and Vilonia in Faulkner County, and on into White County. Sixteen people died in that storm. Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, Illinois, conducted research about the shift, authoring a paper in 2018 that noted the change. Since then, he's continued to monitor the trend and says the trend is ongoing. 'It's still more prevalent in the southeast,' he said. 'And we're seeing more evidence of that each year.' Gensini tracked tornado reports from 1979 to 2018 for his initial study, but also noted atmospheric conditions in the areas at the time that were favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Gensini blames a combination of weather phenomenon for the increase in Arkansas' tornadoes. A drought in the southwest is taking away needed moisture for the formation of twisters in the traditional Tornado Alley region. More than 67% of Arizona is experiencing 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought conditions — the two highest levels of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Drought Monitor is based at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln and records weather conditions and patterns weekly. Three months ago, only 17% of Arizona was under the same two drought conditions. A year ago, the state was considered free from extreme and exceptional drought. New Mexico, Texas and Utah have also seen increases in drought in their respective states. Thirty percent of Texas is in 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought, an increase from 14% three months ago. 'The most intense levels of drought now cover a broad area from southeastern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah through much of Arizona, New Mexico and the Texas Big Bend, said Richard Tinker, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, and the author of the latest drought report. 'The southern Great Plains are drying up,' Gensini added. The dry atmospheric conditions in the southwest create a dome of high pressure over the western U.S., sapping energy from the atmosphere and forcing potential tornado-producing systems to move further east. The jet stream, a strong current of frigid Arctic air, is also dipping further south into the Mississippi delta region because of the Southwestern drought. Water temperature in the Gulf has also increased on average by one or two degrees, creating the moist, humid air needed for tornadoes. 'One or two degrees may not seem much. But think of the difference between 32 degrees and 33 degrees,' Gensini said, referring to the temperature when water freezes. 'It's early in the season, and the waters are warmer. That warm, humid air is heading into Arkansas where the air has been unstable already. It makes things more potent. 'We're seeing weather pattern changes over the last 70 to 80 years that didn't happen in 100,000 to 120,000 years before,' he said. 'There is such a rapid rate of change, and it's not lessening.' Of the 144 warnings issued in Arkansas between March 14 and April 14, not all produced tornadoes, said Dennis Cavanaugh, the National Weather Service warning coordinator in North Little Rock. In fact, the Weather Service strives to keep its 'false alarm' rate of tornado warnings to less than 80%. Warnings are issued when Doppler weather radar picks up rotation in clouds, signature 'inflow notches' that indicate the building of cyclonic air patterns, hail cores and other indicators. The Weather Service also must balance the need to warn people while also not unnecessarily alarming them. Issue too many warnings that don't produce tornadoes, and the public may become complacent and not heed future warnings as seriously. John Robinson, a former Meteorologist in Charge at the North Little Rock station, used to say that more people were injured in tornadoes while gawking at clouds for confirmation of those tornadoes rather than seeking shelter when warnings were issued. On the other side, if the Weather Service curtails its warnings and an unwarned tornado does form, results could be devastating. 'Radar can't see tornadoes,' Cavanaugh said. 'It can see circulation aloft when it's likely a tornado is forming. If we wait to see the debris cloud from a tornado that's on the ground to issue a warning, it's much too late.' Cavanaugh said continued advances in technology should help the Weather Service lower its rate of false alarms. But the service will always rely on trained storm spotters who can see the lowering of wall clouds — a first step in the formation of tornadoes — and any circulation of clouds overhead. 'That's really not applicable to this year,' he said of the fear that the scores of warnings issued may eventually be ignored. 'I don't think the average Arkansan thought he or she was not warned unnecessarily.' During a round of storms one April evening, Ryan Vaughn, the meteorologist for KAIT8 in Jonesboro, was broadcasting live storm coverage. At one point, most of northeast Arkansas was placed under a myriad of tornado warnings. Vaughn took a deep sigh on air. 'I don't think I've ever said this before, but if you're anywhere in northeast Arkansas, take cover now,' he told viewers. Tornadoes are formed by opposing winds at various levels. Strong winds in opposite directions cause a shear and a horizontal column of air circulating overhead. Warm, humid air feeds the twister and eventually the column of air begins tilting vertically and lowering to become a destructive tornado. And if the increase in tornadoes in Arkansas and the Delta is not enough, Gensini said the ingredients for twister formation should also cause larger hail storms. Hail is formed inside supercell thunderstorms. The rising air inside a building storm lofts raindrops into freezing air. It causes hail, which falls to the ground. Many times, a frozen raindrop falls in the size of a pea or gravel. But with more convection inside the stronger storms, that pea-sized bit of hail is lofted over and over again inside the system, growing larger as more water freezes on it. That's what causes the golf ball- and baseball-sized hail and are indicative of stronger storms and tornadoes. Gensini is about to embark on a 40-day field study this summer of hail storms. 'Tornadoes get all the attention on the news because of the visual destruction,' he said. 'You see a path of destruction with shattered homes. But hail is much worse overall. It damages roofs, cars and agriculture in a much larger area. 'I think the south and southeast will see a lot more problems in the years coming,' he said. This article is republished from the Arkansas Advocate, a sister publication of the Kentucky Lantern and part of the nonprofit States Newsroom network. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Traditional ‘Tornado Alley' is shifting eastward as climate changes, expert says
Arkansas has become more prone to tornadoes and hail storms as climate change and other weather phenomenon shift storms farther east and south, experts say. A rainbow appears after a March 31, 2023, tornado tore a path through Little Rock. (Photo by John Sykes/Arkansas Advocate) In the 30 days after several damaging twisters hit Arkansas on March 14, the state saw nearly four times as many tornado warnings as Texas did. The National Weather Service issued 144 warnings in Arkansas, compared to 39 in Texas from March 14 to April 14. Mississippi also recorded 144 warnings over the same period and Tennessee saw 125 warnings. Alabama noted 57 warnings. It's an indication that the classic 'Tornado Alley' region — the area from central Texas through Oklahoma and Kansas, so named because of the number of tornadoes there — is shifting eastward. The shift is attributed to climate change, the warming of the Gulf of Mexico's waters and a dip in the cold jet stream pattern. Arkansas, scientists say, is nearly in the bull's eye of a new tornado-prone area that's referred to as 'Dixie Alley.' The region, which has seen a vast increase in tornadoes over the past several years, also encompasses Mississippi, Alabama and western Tennessee. Weather Service survey teams have already confirmed 35 tornadoes have touched down in Arkansas through April. The state averages 42 twisters per year. The storms have also been larger. Arkansas was hit with two EF-4 twisters on March 14 — one in Jackson County and one in Izard County The last time a tornado of that strength hit the state was on April 27, 2014, when a tornado cut a 41-mile path of destruction through western Pulaski County, Mayflower and Vilonia in Faulkner County, and on into White County. Sixteen people died in that storm. Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, Illinois, conducted research about the shift, authoring a paper in 2018 that noted the change. Since then, he's continued to monitor the trend and says the trend is ongoing. 'It's still more prevalent in the southeast,' he said. 'And we're seeing more evidence of that each year.' Gensini tracked tornado reports from 1979 to 2018 for his initial study, but also noted atmospheric conditions in the areas at the time that were favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Gensini blames a combination of weather phenomenon for the increase in Arkansas' tornadoes. A drought in the southwest is taking away needed moisture for the formation of twisters in the traditional Tornado Alley region. More than 67% of Arizona is experiencing 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought conditions — the two highest levels of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Drought Monitor is based at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln and records weather conditions and patterns weekly. Three months ago, only 17% of Arizona was under the same two drought conditions. A year ago, the state was considered free from extreme and exceptional drought. New Mexico, Texas and Utah have also seen increases in drought in their respective states. Thirty percent of Texas is in 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought, an increase from 14% three months ago. 'The most intense levels of drought now cover a broad area from southeastern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah through much of Arizona, New Mexico and the Texas Big Bend, said Richard Tinker, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, and the author of the latest drought report. 'The southern Great Plains are drying up,' Gensini added. The dry atmospheric conditions in the southwest create a dome of high pressure over the western U.S., sapping energy from the atmosphere and forcing potential tornado-producing systems to move further east. The jet stream, a strong current of frigid Arctic air, is also dipping further south into the Mississippi delta region because of the Southwestern drought. Water temperature in the Gulf has also increased on average by one or two degrees, creating the moist, humid air needed for tornadoes. 'One or two degrees may not seem much. But think of the difference between 32 degrees and 33 degrees,' Gensini said, referring to the temperature when water freezes. 'It's early in the season, and the waters are warmer. That warm, humid air is heading into Arkansas where the air has been unstable already. It makes things more potent. 'We're seeing weather pattern changes over the last 70 to 80 years that didn't happen in 100,000 to 120,000 years before,' he said. 'There is such a rapid rate of change, and it's not lessening.' Of the 144 warnings issued in Arkansas between March 14 and April 14, not all produced tornadoes, said Dennis Cavanaugh, the National Weather Service warning coordinator in North Little Rock. In fact, the Weather Service strives to keep its 'false alarm' rate of tornado warnings to less than 80%. Warnings are issued when Doppler weather radar picks up rotation in clouds, signature 'inflow notches' that indicate the building of cyclonic air patterns, hail cores and other indicators. The Weather Service also must balance the need to warn people while also not unnecessarily alarming them. Issue too many warnings that don't produce tornadoes, and the public may become complacent and not heed future warnings as seriously. John Robinson, a former Meteorologist in Charge at the North Little Rock station, used to say that more people were injured in tornadoes while gawking at clouds for confirmation of those tornadoes rather than seeking shelter when warnings were issued. On the other side, if the Weather Service curtails its warnings and an unwarned tornado does form, results could be devastating. 'Radar can't see tornadoes,' Cavanaugh said. 'It can see circulation aloft when it's likely a tornado is forming. If we wait to see the debris cloud from a tornado that's on the ground to issue a warning, it's much too late.' Cavanaugh said continued advances in technology should help the Weather Service lower its rate of false alarms. But the service will always rely on trained storm spotters who can see the lowering of wall clouds — a first step in the formation of tornadoes — and any circulation of clouds overhead. 'That's really not applicable to this year,' he said of the fear that the scores of warnings issued may eventually be ignored. 'I don't think the average Arkansan thought he or she was not warned unnecessarily.' During a round of storms one April evening, Ryan Vaughn, the meteorologist for KAIT8 in Jonesboro, was broadcasting live storm coverage. At one point, most of northeast Arkansas was placed under a myriad of tornado warnings. Vaughn took a deep sigh on air. 'I don't think I've ever said this before, but if you're anywhere in northeast Arkansas, take cover now,' he told viewers. Tornadoes are formed by opposing winds at various levels. Strong winds in opposite directions cause a shear and a horizontal column of air circulating overhead. Warm, humid air feeds the twister and eventually the column of air begins tilting vertically and lowering to become a destructive tornado. And if the increase in tornadoes in Arkansas and the Delta is not enough, Gensini said the ingredients for twister formation should also cause larger hail storms. Hail is formed inside supercell thunderstorms. The rising air inside a building storm lofts raindrops into freezing air. It causes hail, which falls to the ground. Many times, a frozen raindrop falls in the size of a pea or gravel. But with more convection inside the stronger storms, that pea-sized bit of hail is lofted over and over again inside the system, growing larger as more water freezes on it. That's what causes the golf ball- and baseball-sized hail and are indicative of stronger storms and tornadoes. Gensini is about to embark on a 40-day field study this summer of hail storms. 'Tornadoes get all the attention on the news because of the visual destruction,' he said. 'You see a path of destruction with shattered homes. But hail is much worse overall. It damages roofs, cars and agriculture in a much larger area. 'I think the south and southeast will see a lot more problems in the years coming,' he said. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Arkansas becomes part of ‘Dixie Alley' as more frequent tornadic activity shifts east and south
Arkansas has become more prone to tornadoes and hail storms as climate change and other weather phenomenon shift storms farther east and south, experts say. Here, a rainbow appears after a March 31, 2023, tornado tore a path through Little Rock. (Photo by John Sykes/Arkansas Advocate) In the 30 days after several damaging twisters hit Arkansas on March 14, the state saw nearly four times as many tornado warnings as Texas did. The National Weather Service issued 144 warnings in Arkansas, compared to 39 in Texas from March 14 to April 14. Mississippi also recorded 144 warnings over the same period and Tennessee saw 125 warnings. Alabama noted 57 warnings. It's an indication that the classic 'Tornado Alley' region — the area from central Texas through Oklahoma and Kansas, so named because of the number of tornadoes there — is shifting eastward. The shift is attributed to climate change, the warming of the Gulf of Mexico's waters and a dip in the cold jet stream pattern. Arkansas, scientists say, is nearly in the bull's eye of a new tornado-prone area that's referred to as 'Dixie Alley.' The region, which has seen a vast increase in tornadoes over the past several years, also encompasses Mississippi, Alabama and western Tennessee. Weather Service survey teams have already confirmed 35 tornadoes have touched down in Arkansas through April. The state averages 42 twisters per year. The storms have also been larger. Arkansas was hit with two EF-4 twisters on March 14 — one in Jackson County and one in Izard County The last time a tornado of that strength hit the state was on April 27, 2014, when a tornado cut a 41-mile path of destruction through western Pulaski County, Mayflower and Vilonia in Faulkner County, and on into White County. Sixteen people died in that storm. Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, Illinois, conducted research about the shift, authoring a paper in 2018 that noted the change. Since then, he's continued to monitor the trend and says the trend is ongoing. 'It's still more prevalent in the southeast,' he said. 'And we're seeing more evidence of that each year.' Gensini tracked tornado reports from 1979 to 2018 for his initial study, but also noted atmospheric conditions in the areas at the time that were favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Gensini blames a combination of weather phenomenon for the increase in Arkansas' tornadoes. A drought in the southwest is taking away needed moisture for the formation of twisters in the traditional Tornado Alley region. More than 67% of Arizona is experiencing 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought conditions — the two highest levels of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Drought Monitor is based at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln and records weather conditions and patterns weekly. Three months ago, only 17% of Arizona was under the same two drought conditions. A year ago, the state was considered free from extreme and exceptional drought. New Mexico, Texas and Utah have also seen increases in drought in their respective states. Thirty percent of Texas is in 'extreme' and 'exceptional' drought, an increase from 14% three months ago. 'The most intense levels of drought now cover a broad area from southeastern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah through much of Arizona, New Mexico and the Texas Big Bend, said Richard Tinker, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, and the author of the latest drought report. 'The southern Great Plains are drying up,' Gensini added. The dry atmospheric conditions in the southwest create a dome of high pressure over the western U.S., sapping energy from the atmosphere and forcing potential tornado-producing systems to move further east. The jet stream, a strong current of frigid Arctic air, is also dipping further south into the Mississippi delta region because of the Southwestern drought. Water temperature in the Gulf has also increased on average by one or two degrees, creating the moist, humid air needed for tornadoes. 'One or two degrees may not seem much. But think of the difference between 32 degrees and 33 degrees,' Gensini said, referring to the temperature when water freezes. 'It's early in the season, and the waters are warmer. That warm, humid air is heading into Arkansas where the air has been unstable already. It makes things more potent. 'We're seeing weather pattern changes over the last 70 to 80 years that didn't happen in 100,000 to 120,000 years before,' he said. 'There is such a rapid rate of change, and it's not lessening.' Of the 144 warnings issued in Arkansas between March 14 and April 14, not all produced tornadoes, said Dennis Cavanaugh, the National Weather Service warning coordinator in North Little Rock. In fact, the Weather Service strives to keep its 'false alarm' rate of tornado warnings to less than 80%. Warnings are issued when Doppler weather radar picks up rotation in clouds, signature 'inflow notches' that indicate the building of cyclonic air patterns, hail cores and other indicators. The Weather Service also must balance the need to warn people while also not unnecessarily alarming them. Issue too many warnings that don't produce tornadoes, and the public may become complacent and not heed future warnings as seriously. John Robinson, a former Meteorologist in Charge at the North Little Rock station, used to say that more people were injured in tornadoes while gawking at clouds for confirmation of those tornadoes rather than seeking shelter when warnings were issued. On the other side, if the Weather Service curtails its warnings and an unwarned tornado does form, results could be devastating. 'Radar can't see tornadoes,' Cavanaugh said. 'It can see circulation aloft when it's likely a tornado is forming. If we wait to see the debris cloud from a tornado that's on the ground to issue a warning, it's much too late.' Cavanaugh said continued advances in technology should help the Weather Service lower its rate of false alarms. But the service will always rely on trained storm spotters who can see the lowering of wall clouds — a first step in the formation of tornadoes — and any circulation of clouds overhead. 'That's really not applicable to this year,' he said of the fear that the scores of warnings issued may eventually be ignored. 'I don't think the average Arkansan thought he or she was not warned unnecessarily.' During a round of storms one April evening, Ryan Vaughn, the meteorologist for KAIT8 in Jonesboro, was broadcasting live storm coverage. At one point, most of northeast Arkansas was placed under a myriad of tornado warnings. Vaughn took a deep sigh on air. 'I don't think I've ever said this before, but if you're anywhere in northeast Arkansas, take cover now,' he told viewers. Tornadoes are formed by opposing winds at various levels. Strong winds in opposite directions cause a shear and a horizontal column of air circulating overhead. Warm, humid air feeds the twister and eventually the column of air begins tilting vertically and lowering to become a destructive tornado. And if the increase in tornadoes in Arkansas and the Delta is not enough, Gensini said the ingredients for twister formation should also cause larger hail storms. Hail is formed inside supercell thunderstorms. The rising air inside a building storm lofts raindrops into freezing air. It causes hail, which falls to the ground. Many times, a frozen raindrop falls in the size of a pea or gravel. But with more convection inside the stronger storms, that pea-sized bit of hail is lofted over and over again inside the system, growing larger as more water freezes on it. That's what causes the golf ball- and baseball-sized hail and are indicative of stronger storms and tornadoes. Gensini is about to embark on a 40-day field study this summer of hail storms. 'Tornadoes get all the attention on the news because of the visual destruction,' he said. 'You see a path of destruction with shattered homes. But hail is much worse overall. It damages roofs, cars and agriculture in a much larger area. 'I think the south and southeast will see a lot more problems in the years coming,' he said. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
