Latest news with #JoshSchafer
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks aren't moving much on tariff news: Chart of the Day
Stocks nosedived after President Trump first announced his tariffs. The major indexes have since recovered and now investors seem to shrug off most of the new tariff headlines. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer takes a closer look at one chart that shows how much has changed. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. In today's chart of the day, we're taking a look at how stocks have reacted recently to tariff headlines. So, of course, if you look back in April, the S&P 500 was moving quite a bit off these headlines, right? So this is sort of your starter. This is March. Of course, this is Liberation Day in April, and this is data from Goldman Sachs's David Costin. He's the chief equity strategist over there. In purple, you're looking at a basket that GS tracks of tariff related stocks. In green, you're looking at how the S&P 500 reacted. So, sort of two key points here. One, the market, you could argue, was pretty rational during this sell-off, right? The S&P 500 falling 5% initially on that first day, while a tariff related basket fell 11%. Of course, that makes some sense, right? Stocks that are more exposed to tariffs sliding more. But what's been interesting from sort of a macro perspective here is when we look at what's happening in July. July 7th, July 13th, we got big tariff headlines those days. Both the tariff basket and the S&P 500 only moved 1% on July 7th and less than 1%, basically 0% on July 13th. So what this has been showing us is essentially that right now tariff headlines, although we have a lot of them, we're talking about them every day on this network. There's a lot of letters coming out, etc. They're not really moving the markets anymore. And someone like Costin essentially argues because there hasn't been a lot in the data that has shown that tariffs are as big of an issue as once feared. If tariffs aren't going to change the overall trajectory of profit growth for the S&P 500, then why would investors sell stocks? And so right now you're just seeing overall confidence despite the constant tariff back and forth. Of course, headed into August 1st, Josh, and really anything can happen as we sort of approach that deadline as we know. And why I have you, Josh, I want to ask you about Mike Wilson as well. Another well-respected guy, well-respected strategist, kind of guy, Mike speaks, people tend to pay attention. What does he have to say? Because he is sounding increasingly bullish as well. Yes, Josh. Yes. And it's really sort of related to this concept, right? So Mike Wilson over at Morgan Stanley, writing in a note to clients over the weekend, saying that he is increasingly bullish, starting to consider his 12-month case for 7200 on the S&P 500. That'd be well over a 10% raise from where we are right now. I'll just pull up the actual SPX so we can get a sense of that. But overall, sort of what Wilson's arguing is essentially similar to Costin. The overall growth trajectory right now looks pretty promising post tariffs. If you're not seeing tariffs impact that economic growth story as much as initially thought, if you have earnings continuing to come in solid, then sort of the rally that you've seen in the S&P 500 over the last month, over the last two months, starts to make a lot of sense and is really fundamentally backed. Wilson would also point out earnings revisions breadth. So the amount of earnings revisions that are starting to turn positive has been picking up as this rally has been happening. If you looked at a chart of earnings revisions, it would look pretty similar with that flow up. That is strong fundamentally for the S&P 500. So unless something shifts, Wilson highlighted, maybe tariffs start to impact inflation more than we think, or I'll pull up the 10-year treasury here. We talked about this when a lot, Josh. If the 10-year treasury did indeed end up pushing up to 4.5%, as it looked like it was going to last week, that'd be another key headwind. But without those headwinds right now, he's pretty bullish, and he thinks the path is likely higher for the S&P 500 in the intermediate term over the next year. Related Videos Coca-Cola & defense earnings, Powell remarks: What to Watch 'Magnificent 7' stocks, US dollar falls, ether nears $4k: Takeaways Nothing Broken With 'SPY' ETF: State Street's Paglia NXP Semiconductors, Zions Bancorp, Steel Dynamics: After-hours movers Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of America reports Q2 earnings beat
Bank of America (BAC) reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $0.89, beating estimates of $0.85, with revenue near $26.5 billion. Yahoo Finance Reporter Josh Schafer highlights the latest report and CEO Brian Moynihan's comments on consumers maintaining steady spending. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief: Market Sunrise here. Breaking news. Bank of America just reporting second quarter earnings. The bank posted adjusted earnings per share of of 89 cents per share, higher than analyst expectations of 85 cents per share, and that and then revenue coming in at 26 and a half billion dollars. That's roughly in line with estimates. You can see on your screen now, stock rising in reaction up about two almost 2% at one point. Now up a little bit over 1%. I do want to highlight a quote from Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. He had some commentaries on the US consumer, saying quote, consumers remain resilient with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilizations rates rose. So a healthy consumer is what Bank of America is seeing here, and I want to get you a couple other key numbers within this release. So net interest income for the second quarter from Bank of America coming in at 14.67 billion. That was above estimates for 14.6 billion. So slightly above estimates there. A key metric, though, that seems to maybe be driving this stock higher right now, I want to look at trading revenue. Trading revenue in the second quarter for BofA coming in at 5.38 billion. The street was looking for 4.94 billion, so a pretty big beat on trading revenue there. Now remember, that was a story we had been following yesterday as well. Uh, city also going up higher yesterday on trading revenue, of course, this follows a relatively volatile market quarter for the second quarter in tariff reactions. So you're seeing the banks sort of benefiting from some of that. We'll be watching how that impacted Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley later on today. And then I also want to take a look at different sides of this stock move you're seeing right now. So Bank of America up almost 2% right now, but you're looking at that one-year chart stock. It only been up 10%. You flip over to JP Morgan's estimates from yet or earnings from yesterday, stock didn't really move well on relatively strong earnings, but stock had been up over 40% over the past year. So perhaps you're seeing a little bit of a difference there. A final number I want to bring you from BofA, looking at the second quarter, investment banking revenue coming in at 1.43 billion. That was above estimates slightly, and that was an interesting metric. Yeah, above estimates for 1.27 billion. Yesterday, remember, JP Morgan investment banking had been a key metric for them. Investment banking had come in higher than expected. We've been watching sort of as we delve into these releases, and certainly you'll be able to see this in Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs later this morning, how the pickup in the M&A market, pickup in the IPO market, might be impacting deal making and that part of the business. Overall, relatively solid report it seems from Bank of America. Market seems to be enjoying this one. Again, stock up almost 2%. We'll be keeping a close eye on that earnings call later this morning, and we'll be giving you more updates on the financial sector throughout the morning on our morning brief show later.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Retail sales rebound, jobless claims: Consumer health check-in
Retail sales bounced back in June, with data showing a 0.6% increase — better than the 0.1% expected and the 0.9% decline seen in May. The latest initial jobless claims data hit a three-month low, indicating a low firing environment. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer breaks down the latest and what it signals about the health of the consumer. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. So we saw a rebound in retail sales in June. So you mentioned earlier sales increasing 0.6% in June. That was both the headline number and the number that's excluding auto and gas. The control group which sort of feeds into GDP that increased 0.5% in June. So really a relatively solid print here just on term in terms of the health of the US economy. Capital Economics North America Economist Thomas Ryan Wright just writing in a note to clients that this release just dispels any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to tariffs. That's really what we're looking for within this release. And the other positive sign in economic data that we got this morning, too, Julie, initial jobless claims continue to move lower. Remember going back to May, we have been talking about initial claims continuing to tick higher each week. That's the number of Americans that are filing for new unemployment benefits every week. That came in at 221,000. That's the lowest level we've seen on that metric in three months. So not seeing real clear signs of layoffs here. We know hiring is still ticking lower in the labor market, but you're not seeing layoffs pick up which again, as we sort of talk about that Fed rate cut conversation, if claims were moving significantly higher, that would maybe boost the case for a cut, but the data not really boosting any sort of case for a cut this morning. Yeah, and one thing, one important caveat when you're looking at retail sales, they are not inflation adjusted. So they would account for if prices rose, and that's part of the increase in spending, that would uh that's how that would show up sort of in that number. Related Videos Fed Governor Waller thinks interest rates are over 1% too high What a GENIUS Act win would mean for bitcoin and crypto stocks Bank of America reports Q2 earnings beat Why Wall Street keeps shaking off tariff headlines Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
What a GENIUS Act win would mean for bitcoin and crypto stocks
Crypto legislation could get its first big win in Washington on Wednesday, July 16, as Congress readies for a key vote on the GENIUS Act. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Allie Canal and Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer explain what's in the bill, why the White House is backing it, and how markets (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) are reacting. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. The vote set today for 12:20 in DC. The president said last night, he's confident that he has the support to to pass this thing. So what should we be watching for? Yeah, so the vote slated for this afternoon. President Trump is very confident in the passing of this bill. He says it's going to make the US light years ahead of China, Europe. This is going to be a strong catalyst for the dollar, which we know has struggled so far this year. But we are seeing stable coins become more part of the mainstream economy. We have Amazon and Walmart reportedly considering their own stable coins. Uh, this would establish a framework and is really the first major piece of crypto legislation that we're seeing work its way through DC. That being said though, there does seem to be some resistance. We've been talking about this bill for a while, and it took a bit of time to make it to the Senate. It failed once, there's been heavy negotiations, and this was essentially supposed to be the easiest piece of crypto legislation to get through. So perhaps some choppiness here when we look at the future of crypto, but for the time being, this administration has been so bullish on the crypto space at large, and that's one of the reasons why we're seeing Bitcoin prices where they are still hovering around 120,000 a coin. Yeah, Josh, let's talk about the price a little bit more here because, you know, we saw that surge earlier in the week. We talked to Andy Bear over at CoinDesk about that yesterday, and he said part of that was sort of the equivalent of short covering. But certainly to to Ally's point, we've been talking about this legislation for a while now. Yeah, actually, I mean, I I think you could probably argue it's perhaps priced in at this point with the rally you've seen in Bitcoin. You're looking at it on your screen there. I mean, we've seen a big rally in Bitcoin really over the last several months now. Tucked 122,000. I mean, if we're talking about Bitcoin and how volatile crypto can be, if this legislation is going to be passed today and the coin is up less than 1%, I don't I just don't think that's really candidly that impressive in terms of how we we usually talk about crypto. But also interesting to point out circle stock up about 4% in pre-market trading because of course we are talking about stable coins here as well. And that one's been an interesting one because we kept on talking about how it felt like it had that crypto aspect of a little bit of number go up as the stock was up, but it topped out. I'm looking at on June 23rd at 263 bucks a share. Stock is down about over 20% since that end of June trading. So it'll be interesting to see if a circle continues to rise throughout the session once we actually open here and maybe that stock starts to catch a bid again because that was sort of a go-go stock for most of the month of June.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Retail sales rise more than expected in June
Retail sales rebounded in June, an indication that President Trump's tariffs are not significantly impacting consumer spending habits yet. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% in June, above economists' expectations for a 0.1% increase month on month. By comparison, sales decreased 0.9% in May, according to revised Census Bureau data. The control group in Thursday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, rose 0.5%. That compares with a 0.2% increase seen in May. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. June sales excluding auto and gas increased 0.6%. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise. In May, sales excluding auto and gas were flat. A 1.8% increase in miscellaneous store retailers and a 1.2% gain in motor vehicle and parts dealer sales led the gains in June. Also out Thursday morning, data from the Department of Labor showed 221,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending July 12. After picking up in May, weekly filings for unemployment claims are now at their lowest level in three months. The release comes as investors have held their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts steady despite data out earlier this week that showed signs of sticky inflation. As of Thursday morning investors were pricing in a 54% chance the central ban cuts interest rates by its September meeting, down from a roughly 70% chance seen just last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
