Latest news with #JuliaRoknifard
The Star
08-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Papua New Guinea's Asean bid faces a long road
KUALA LUMPUR: Papua New Guinea's bid to join Asean may be raised at the 58th Asean Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM), but analysts expect a long and winding road ahead. They point to Timor-Leste's experience, which will finally be admitted in October as the 11th member nation of the regional grouping, due to the slew of political, legal and economic requirements it had to comply with. Julia Roknifard, senior lecturer at the School of Law and Governance, Taylor's University, said the island nation's bid to join the grouping could be a topic during the Asean-Australia dialogue. ALSO READ: Asean balancing act begins She said it was Timor-Leste's turn to accede this year, with matters still being assessed given the vast economic disparity between the country and the rest of Asean. 'So for Papua New Guinea, it will be a long way to accession.' Roknifard said discussions on facilitating Papua New Guinea's membership could centre on the possibility of setting up a commission, as was done during Timor-Leste's bid to join the regional grouping. More importantly, she said Papua New Guinea has 'to satisfy the geographical criteria', with the rest remaining at the discretion of Asean members. 'Papua New Guinea is rich in natural resources and can contribute to commodity exports of Asean. 'It is also home to a population of 10 million, which is a big consumer base,' she said. Political analyst Azmi Hassan said certain South-East Asian countries might not be interested in accepting Papua New Guinea as a full-fledged Asean member, given its proximity to Australia. 'Geographically, Papua New Guinea is not part of South-East Asia, so it will be difficult for them to be accepted wholeheartedly by Asean members.' Universiti Malaya International and Strategic Studies Department Assoc Prof Dr Khoo Ying Hooi also said the island nation's bid 'may not move fast'. 'There will be questions about whether it is ready institutionally, politically and economically to meet Asean standards. 'It is not just about wanting to join, as Asean will look at whether Papua New Guinea fits with the region's dynamics, and whether its inclusion will make consensus even harder to achieve, especially when we are already stuck on big issues like Myanmar,' she said, adding that Papua New Guinea is situated in Oceania and has closer ties within that region. 'While Papua New Guinea's application might be discussed or acknowledged, I don't see any real decision happening soon.' On Saturday, Indonesia's Foreign Ministry said Papua New Guinea's bid to join Asean will be discussed at the AMM in Kuala Lumpur. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto expressed support for the move during the 46th Asean Summit held in Kuala Lumpur in May.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Roknifard: Regime Change in Iran Unlikely
Israel woke up to a new reality Sunday after President Trump confirmed that the US had bombed Iran's main three nuclear sites. The attack has been lauded across Israel as a historic symbol of unprecedented cooperation with the US. However, now the concern is about how Iran will respond. Julia Roknifard, Senior Lecturer, School of Law & Governance at Taylor's University, Malaysia told Bloomberg's Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor Joumanna Bercetche expecting a regime change in Iran on the back of these attacks is extremely unlikely.
Bloomberg
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Roknifard: Regime Change in Iran Unlikely
Israel woke up to a new reality Sunday after President Trump confirmed that the US had bombed Iran's main three nuclear sites. The attack has been lauded across Israel as a historic symbol of unprecedented cooperation with the US. However, now the concern is about how Iran will respond. Julia Roknifard, Senior Lecturer, School of Law & Governance at Taylor's University, Malaysia told Bloomberg's Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor Joumanna Bercetche expecting a regime change in Iran on the back of these attacks is extremely unlikely. (Source: Bloomberg)
Malaysia Sun
25-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysia Sun
Column: ASEAN-GCC-China cooperation a new
The three parties now have more incentive than ever to coordinate in the current geopolitical climate, as some major countries are pursuing confrontation and protectionism, making the list of divergent interests only growing longer. by Julia Roknifard A remarkable mechanism of multilateral cooperation is emerging as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are to hold an inaugural joint summit. The three parties now have more incentive than ever to coordinate in the current geopolitical climate, as some major countries are pursuing confrontation and protectionism, making the list of divergent interests only growing longer. CHINA AS AN ANCHOR FOR ASEAN-GCC China has already had a transformative impact on ASEAN and the broader Middle East economically, including the GCC states, through major infrastructure, trade and development efforts -- particularly the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative. But the relationship runs deeper, with growing cooperation in technology, industrial development, tourism, cultural exchange and longstanding people-to-people ties. Malaysia, which assumed ASEAN's rotating chairmanship in 2025, has counted China as its largest trading partner since 2009 and has consistently advocated for deeper regional integration. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has also been an active and outspoken voice on Middle East affairs, positioning Malaysia as a fitting host for the upcoming tripartite summit. Like many ASEAN nations, Malaysia has sought to steer clear of global trade tensions, upholding a policy of free and open trade while broadening its international partnerships, including joining the BRICS group in 2024. The move underscores a push to deepen ties and trade with China, as it faces tariffs and other forms of pressure from the United States. Meanwhile, China's diplomatic and stabilizing role on crucial issues has also boosted its standing in the region. Its calls for a peaceful and just resolution to the Palestinian conflict resonate with many in ASEAN, while its success in bringing together key Middle East powers, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia, has further elevated its profile and generated goodwill across the region. BUILDING RESILIENT ECONOMIC TIES The convergence of major energy exporters in the GCC, ASEAN's large consumer base, and China's massive market of over 1.4 billion people promises significant benefits for all parties. Together, they hold enough resources within their borders to sustain trade to weather potential restrictions or disruptions. Despite efforts to draw ASEAN and the GCC members into bloc confrontation, the West is unable to pressure these countries as it previously could with its military and economic power, signalling a steady erosion of the leverage it once had. Amid ongoing conflicts and shifting economic realities, countries are increasingly prioritizing partnerships that best serve their development goals, rather than accepting policies that hinder their progress. Bringing together all three parties creates a new platform for cooperation. Barring interference from outside parties, this emerging "Golden Triangle" of resources, manufacturing, and consumers is poised to drive the global economy forward. It could also accelerate the spread of cutting-edge technologies pioneered by China -- particularly in renewable energy vehicles and artificial intelligence tools like DeepSeek, which is developed at a fraction of the cost of Western counterparts. BURYING THE UNIPOLAR ORDER As major European economies are close to recession and de-industrialization, and the United States itself has lost its edge in shipbuilding tonnage and continues to lapse in other sectors, China continues to move forward as it is able to recognize this simple fact that ASEAN, the GCC and other regional groupings across Africa and Latin America are looking forward to a new era of peace and stable international relations. While these aspirations might or might not result in a tight integration of ASEAN-GCC-China in foreseeable future, the alternative -- watching other nations drift toward harmful, fragmented policies -- is a far bleaker scenario than the promise of renewed global cooperation and shared prosperity. Editor's note: Julia Roknifard is a senior lecturer at the School of Law and Governance at Taylor's University. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Xinhua News Agency.
The Star
25-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
Asean-China-GCC ties seen to inject certainty into global economy
KUALA LUMPUR: Cooperation between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will unlock immense potential for multilateral cooperation across sectors and inject stability into the world economy, analysts said ahead of an inaugural joint summit for the three parties. At the Asean-China-GCC Summit, to be held in the Malaysian capital next week, the three parties are expected to deepen practical cooperation in various fields, such as trade, investment and supply chain, creating new opportunities in clean and renewable energy, digital economy, electric vehicles, financial markets and infrastructure development among other areas. The trilateral gathering of the leaders of 17 countries also marks an innovative step in cross-regional South-South cooperation among complementary economies to ride out trade disruptions caused by US tariffs. 'Golden triangle' Asean, a group of 10 Southeast Asian countries - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, is the fifth-largest economy after the United States, China, the EU and Japan. With a large, youthful population driving digital transformation, abundant natural resources, and a skilled labor force, Asean has positioned itself as a major engine powering the global supply chain and industrial development. The GCC economies, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), are expected to double its economic growth rate from 2.1 percent in 2024 to 4.2 percent in 2025, the First Abu Dhabi Bank, the largest bank in the UAE, said in a report released in February. According to the report, the GCC's economic resilience will be supported by strategic investments, diversification and robust expansion in the non-oil sector, as the Middle East undergoes a shift from a major oil exporter to a global green energy hub. Julia Roknifard, a senior lecturer at Taylor's University in Malaysia, said China is an anchor for Asean-GCC cooperation. "China has already had a transformative effect on Asean and the wider Middle East, including GCC states, through its various infrastructure, trade and development initiatives, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative guided by the Global Development Initiative," she said. "But the relationship goes deeper than that, as China is increasingly engaged in technology sharing and shared industrialization, besides tourism, cultural exchange and longstanding people-to-people relationships," Roknifard added. The expert called the trilateral cooperation platform a "Golden Triangle" of resources, manufacturing and consumers, which will continue to power the global economy despite severe trade disruptions due to recent US tariff policy. Visitors attend the 21st China-ASEAN Expo at Nanning International Convention and Exhibition Center in Nanning, South China's Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, Sept 24, 2024. - Photo: Xinhua file Protecting global trade The trilateral event comes amid heightened uncertainty in world economy. In its April World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF downgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8 percent, a hefty 0.5 percentage points decrease from its January estimate. "Since the release of the January WEO Update, a series of new tariff measures by the United States and countermeasures by trading partners have been announced and implemented," the report said, calling the US reciprocal tariffs "near-universal" and "not seen in a century". "The unprecedented imposition of tariffs by the US will disrupt regional and global trade and investment flows, as well as supply chains, affecting businesses and consumers worldwide, including those of the US," Asean economic ministers said in a joint statement issued following a special virtual meeting held on April 10. US tariffs are also endangering $22 billion worth of non-oil exports of GCC economies, according to a recent policy brief by the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. The UN agency said Bahrain is flagged due to its heavy dependence on aluminum and chemical exports to the US market, while the UAE could see disruptions to roughly $10 billion in US-bound re-exports, a result of US tariffs on goods originally produced in third countries. Facing trade disruption, China, Asean and GCC members - as part of the Global South, can jointly catalyse more cooperation across other Global South countries by inspiring similar initiatives, said Bunn Nagara, director and senior fellow at the Belt and Road Initiative Caucus for Asia-Pacific (BRICAP), an independent non-governmental think tank based in Kuala Lumpur. "Our success in cooperation is also a success for the Global South," the expert said. "Countries in Africa and Latin America share our aspirations." "Part of our interests lies in protecting global trade, on which our respective national development programmes depend. This will also benefit other countries and regions around the world," he added. Solid foundation Cooperation among China, Asean and GCC countries has witnessed fruitful results in recent years. In October 2023, the first Asean-GCC summit was held in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, marking a significant milestone in the relations between the two regional organisations, which forged ties in 1990. The Asean-GCC Framework of Cooperation (2024-2028) was presented at the conclusion of the summit, which outlines measures and cooperation activities in such sectors as security, trade and investment, cultural exchanges and tourism. In December 2022, the first China-GCC summit was held in Riyadh. China pledged to work with GCC countries to prioritise cooperation in energy, finance and investment, innovation, science and technology, aerospace, as well as language and cultural fields. China and GCC countries are natural partners of cooperation with strong economic complementarities, Chinese leaders have said, as China has a vast consumer market and a complete industrial system, while the GCC, with rich energy resources, is embracing diversified economic development. Meanwhile, China and Asean countries have fully completed negotiations on the Version 3.0 China-Asean Free Trade Area (Cafta), and will strive to formally sign the Cafta 3.0 upgrade protocol before the end of this year, economic and trade ministers from China and Asean said at a special online meeting on Tuesday. "Over the past decade, economic ties between Asean and China have strengthened significantly, bolstered by shared participation in regional production networks and the rapid economic growth of both sides," Abdul Mui'zz Morhalim, chief economist at MIDF Amanah Investment Bank, told Xinhua. The upcoming Asean-China-GCC summit is expected to establish an important mechanism for trilateral cooperation across the board. The three sides will be able to synergize their economic and industrial policies, and have the potential to upgrade their cooperation in many fields, including clean energy and the digital economy, analysts said. - Xinhua
