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New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB's luckiest and unluckiest first-half teams: Time to buy low on the Yankees and Red Sox?
With MLB's All-Star break in the rearview mirror, we're heading into a roughly 10-week, 60-game sprint to the finish, culminating in the start of October baseball. A lot can and will change during that stretch, from the looming trade deadline on July 31 to the usual churn of injuries and hot/cold streaks. And as we've seen time and again, even bad teams can pose as good ones (or vice-versa) over any given 60-game span. Advertisement But one of the biggest factors that can still shape the season is luck: Who has it, who's due for more of it and who might be running out of it. It's uncomfortable to admit this, but randomness plays a huge role in shaping the standings, sometimes accounting for as much as two-thirds of the variation between teams' records. And with fewer dominant teams than usual at the break, this season has been ruled by fortune, good or bad, more than most in recent memory. So what does luck actually look like on the field? Sometimes it's players putting together unexpected career years, though that's harder to untangle from smarter player development in the era of data-driven coaching and scouting. But the most tried-and-true indicators involve teams outperforming their expected records, either by winning more than their run differential suggests (typically thanks to clutch and/or bullpen-driven wins in close games), or by producing more favorable sequencing — clustering hits together to score more runs than expected, or scattering opponents' hits to keep them off the scoreboard. Using FanGraphs' BaseRuns model, which estimates how many runs a team 'should' score and allow based on its raw stats — along with Pythagorean winning percentage to estimate expected record based on run differential — we can break down both types of luck. And once we identify the luckiest and unluckiest teams, we can then dig into whether there are any good buy-low futures opportunities. After converting the run-based effects into wins (using a standard exchange rate), here are the teams that benefited most — and least — from luck in the first half: Luck ranks (more = luckier): Close games 2nd | Offense 10th | Defense 16th We don't mean to downplay the Blue Jays' revival, one of the best stories of the first half. And while Toronto did look like one of the most improved teams of the 2024-25 offseason, it has been hardly lucky in the performance of its headline acquisitions — Andrés Giménez, Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, etc., all of whom are on track for many fewer WAR than expected. Instead, the Jays' largest source of good fortune has been in converting run differential to wins: at +17 through the break, they were tied for 15th in scoring margin despite having MLB's seventh-best record. Toronto had the league's second-best record (38-21) in games decided by three runs or fewer, including a 17-12 mark in one-run games, but was below .500 (17-20) in games with a margin of at least four runs — a split between close games and blowouts that fueled one of the biggest disparities between a team's actual and Pythagorean records. Advertisement Luck ranks: Close games 4th | Offense 14th | Defense 8th It's bizarre thinking of the Orioles as having been 'lucky' to start the 2025 season — if anything, it's felt like anything that could go wrong would, especially early in the schedule. While Baltimore has been better recently, going 27-18 from late May through the break, its playoff odds remain microscopic. So what's been so lucky? According to the Pythagorean expectation, the O's have the fourth-biggest split between their actual and expected records, thanks to a record 2 games over .500 (12-10) in one-run games and 11 runs below .500 (31-42) in multi-run contests. (Even during that recent eight-week improvement, they ranked 14th in Pythagorean win percentage despite ranking fifth in record.) Add in a pitching/defense corps allowing 13 fewer runs than predicted, and the O's have more than six extra wins compared with what we'd expect from their season-long stats. Luck ranks: Close games 1st | Offense 9th | Defense 21st At 47-49 heading into the ASG break, the Halos found themselves sitting surprisingly close to .500 — a level they haven't reached over a full season in a whole decade (since 2015). Some of that, however, was driven by a huge disparity between their record in one-run games (18-11, fourth best in MLB) and multi-run contests (29-38, seventh worst). Sometimes, massive splits like these can be partly explained by elite relief pitching — but that's not the case for the Angels' bullpen, which ranked 28th in WAR, with closer Kenley Jansen and his setup men rating as average at best by ERA and/or FIP. Another aspect of L.A.'s good fortune was an offense that ranked 19th in scoring despite sitting slightly below that in wRC+ (21st) and hitting WAR (22nd). Although the Angels lost some ground in luck on the other side of the ball, allowing 8.6 more runs than BaseRuns would predict, the net effect was a team that exceeded its expected wins overall. Luck ranks: Close games 7th | Offense 3rd | Defense 12th For the teams above, the majority of their overperformance came from winning more close games than we'd expect from their records in multi-run games. And the Dodgers went into the break with a bit of a split there, but not really too much of one. (Yes, they went 17-11 in 1-run contests, but they also had the league's third-best record in games decided by two or more, at 41-28.) Just as large a contributing factor to their fourth-place showing in the luck column, then, was an offense that scored nearly 20 more runs than expected, thanks to one of the league's largest OPS differentials with two outs and runners in scoring position versus overall, plus a run-prevention unit that benefited from timely stranded runners. (Of their nine most frequently used starters, seven had a left-on-base percentage above the league average.) L.A. has been unlucky in other regards, such as injuries, and it is a team to be feared in the postseason, but some of this run-differential luck might regress by season's end. Luck ranks: Close games 5th | Offense 17th | Defense 9th Like with Baltimore, there's nothing that feels especially fortunate about the way Cleveland's 2025 season has played out: One of the best teams by record a year ago, the Guardians have struggled with their offense and once-dominant bullpen en route to a slightly below .500 record at the break and flagging playoff odds. But somehow, matters could be even worse if they were not 34-25 in games decided by three runs or fewer, versus 12-24 in all other contests — a record that ranked only ahead of the Rockies' abysmal 5-33 tally in such games. And although their luck broke even exactly on offense, Cleveland pitchers allowed 12.4 fewer runs than expected, headlined by LOB percentage rates either at or above average for all six of the Guardians' primary starters. So not only will Cleveland have to overcome a long list of teams ahead of it in the standings, but also it will have to fight off any slowdown from its luck wearing off. Luck ranks (more = luckier): Close games 30th | Offense 16th | Defense 27th The Aaron Boone-era Yankees are a fascinating, ongoing test case in whether luck-based stats like these can ever truly regress back to where we'd expect them to be. On the one hand, I (and others) have been complaining about New York's lack of fundamentals for years, citing them as a primary reason the team doesn't always have the record its talent and underlying stats would predict. However, this year's splits are so pronounced that some kind of positive regression seems inevitable. (An eight-win luck shortfall in 96 games is truly enormous.) The Yankees were just 13-18 in one-run games in the first half, and 18-26 in those decided by two runs or fewer, while they were a league-best 35-17 in games with a margin of three runs or more. Performance in blowouts is a strong predictor of future success, and New York's improvement potential is further bolstered by the fact that pinstriped pitchers have allowed 17.3 more runs than expected via BaseRuns. While some of New York's bad luck may be unfixable, a differential like this is extreme. Advertisement Luck ranks: Close games 23rd | Offense 29th | Defense 28th When it comes to historically good or — in this case — bad teams, it takes luck on top of talent (or the lack thereof). So, although the 2025 Rockies are legitimately one of the worst teams in MLB history, and they'll be a threat down the stretch to challenge the 2024 White Sox's record for most losses in a modern season (at 121), Colorado also rode some misfortune to get to its 22-74 mark at the break. The shortfalls came across the board: The Rockies were the only team in the first half to lose at least two wins of luck from close games (they were predicted to be a marginally less-horrendous 24-72 based on their run differential), two wins of luck from offensive sequencing (their OPS was 17 percent worse with two outs and RISP) and two wins of luck from bunching too many hits on the other side of the ball (no team has a lower rate of stranding runners). This Colorado team would have been in the worst-ever conversation regardless of its luck … but that luck is not doing the Rockies any favors, either. Luck ranks: Close games 29th | Offense 12th | Defense 19th Unlike Colorado, Texas is an example of a team where neutral luck would make a huge difference to the complexion of its season. As things stood at the break, the Rangers went in with a disappointing sub-.500 (48-49) record and playoff odds around 20 percent. But they also had MLB's sixth-best record (22-14) in games decided by four or more runs, despite its sixth-worst record (26-35) in games decided by three runs or fewer — including 14-17 in one-run games specifically — which helps explain why their Pythagorean record of 54-43 would have had them sitting in the American League's first wild-card spot at the break instead of 3.5 games back. The rest of Texas' luck profile is fairly neutral on balance, but its Pythagorean gap makes the team an easy stretch-run improvement pick. Luck ranks: Close games 28th | Offense 27th | Defense 3rd Another of the most disappointing teams in MLB's first half, the Braves have been held back by injuries as much as anything else, but their poor luck metrics are also leaving them in a much worse position than they would be otherwise. The All-Star hosts were six games underwater in their Pythagorean differential at the break, with a huge split between their record in close games (13-24 in one-run games, 17-32 in two-run games) and blowouts (25-21 in games decided by three or more runs). And while their pitchers redeemed them with one of the league's highest strand rates, their batters hit .214 with two outs and RISP, scoring a whopping 22 fewer runs than expected from their overall stats. With the Braves buried in the wild-card standings, will any improvement be far too little, far too late? Luck ranks: Close games 22nd | Offense 11th | Defense 30th It's no surprise that the Red Sox are a baffling team on multiple levels — that's just who they always seem to be. The same club that traded Rafael Devers to the Giants in mid-June, then promptly went 16-9 (including a 10-game win streak going into the break), was also among baseball's unluckiest in the first half. Boston went 12-19 in one-run games (fifth worst in MLB) but 41-26 (second best) in multi-run contests, helping fuel a 2.2-win gap in Pythagorean versus actual records. The Red Sox also allowed a staggering 38.2 more runs than BaseRuns predicted they should have, by far the worst mark in the league — Washington was second worst at -28.8. So, even with an offense that scored 7.8 more runs than expected, the Red Sox came out more than five wins short of projected. As much as their recent dominance feels inexplicable, this is an indicator that it might have more staying power than it seems once the luck straightens itself out. (If the Red Sox were a team that made any sense, that is.) Neil Paine is a freelance writer whose work also appears regularly at The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sherwood News and his eponymous Substack. He is the former Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight, and was also an analytics consultant for the NBA's Atlanta Hawks. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; Matthew Grimes Jr. / Getty, Tim Warner / Getty, Katherin Skeean / Getty)
Gizmodo
09-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Gizmodo
The New ‘Twisted Metal' Trailer Is Full of Ludicrous Action and Massive Explosions
'Cowabunga, motherf*ckers.' Twisted Metal is back on July 31 and its latest trailer is everything fans want from the show and so much more. Season two picks up with the epic car vs. car tournament that made the video games so popular finally getting underway. Not only will John (Anthony Mackie) and Quiet (Stephanie Beatriz) be involved, but a whole slew of unforgettable and terrifying Twisted Metal characters too. You'll see them roll called in the new trailer, which features ludicrous action, massive explosions, and Ludacris himself, at least on the soundtrack. If you haven't seen Twisted Metal and are thinking, 'There's no way the show can be that fun,' I assure you it is. Or at least it was. We haven't seen season two yet but season one did a fantastic job of balancing that over-the-top, batshit insanity with a just human enough story of people fighting back against the system. Last time, that was run by Neve Campbell's Raven, and now it seems the stand-in will be Anthony Carrigan's Calypso. Which kind of completely flips the energy, does it not? All in all, despite a strong audience response and this season two renewal, you get this feeling like Twisted Metal is eventually going to get swept up in the unending deluge of streaming shows that come and go. Which is a shame because it truly is unique and run by people with a penchant for making awesome stuff. Fingers crossed this season lives up to the first, and we get to see the story play out for much, much longer. Showrun by Michael Jonathan Smith (Cobra Kai) and with executive producers such as Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick (Deadpool), Twisted Metal returns for season two on Peacock on July 31. Will you be watching? Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what's next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who.
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
BONK Surges 10% as Tuttle Capital Sets July 16 as Earliest Launch Date for Its 2X Leveraged ETF
Bonk (BONK) surged 9.87% to $0.00001494 on July 2, extending recent gains across the Solana meme token space, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis model. The move came amid fresh attention to Tuttle Capital's proposed 2x Long BONK ETF, which has taken a procedural step forward but remains unapproved. Tuttle Capital originally filed a Form N-1A on Jan. 27, for a suite of leveraged ETFs, including a 2x Long BONK product. On July 1, the firm submitted a post-effective amendment stating that the ETF could become effective no sooner than July 16. This means the product could launch after that date, pending regulatory clearance and operational readiness. The filing includes similar 2x long exposure funds for other assets, including SOL, TRUMP, MELANIA, XRP, ADA and LTC. This update has rekindled investor interest in BONK, reflecting broader appetite for structured meme coin exposure via traditional financial instruments. However, the ETF is not yet approved, and the July 16 date only marks the earliest possible activation under current SEC procedures. Elsewhere, BONK developers announced that the Saga phone token redemption program will officially end on July 31. Of the 20,000 allocations, roughly 17,599 have been claimed. Unclaimed tokens will be returned to the BONK DAO and earmarked for future ecosystem development. This change coincides with the launch of the Solana Seeker phone, signaling a transition in Solana Mobile's device cycle. Meanwhile, the Solana network continues to grow. DeFi Development Corp has joined as a validator, boosting infrastructure decentralization. The broader network has now surpassed 350 on-chain integrations, increasing the visibility and utility of tokens like BONK across DeFi and Web3 use cases. Technical Analysis Highlights BONK climbed from $0.0000136 to a peak of $0.00001524, up 12.1%, before closing at $0.00001494. Price broke through resistance at $0.0000144 during the 16:00 UTC hour on strong volume of 1.38 trillion. A head-and-shoulders pattern formed between 16:48 and 17:47 UTC, indicating potential exhaustion. Breakdown below $0.00001500 saw heavy selling, with 73.9 billion in volume during the 17:39 candle. Support is now seen around $0.0000142, bolstered by high-volume buying during the 13:00 hour. Volatility and volume remain elevated, suggesting continued short-term speculation. Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Daily Mail
25-06-2025
- Daily Mail
Erin Patterson mushroom murder trial LIVE updates: Judge wraps up his final instructions to the jury as the marathon trial enters its final days
Podcast All episodes Play on Apple Spotify 22:21 Jury told about Patterson's 'alleged incriminating conduct' Towards the end of Wednesday's proceedings, Justice Beale spoke to the jury about the topic of Patterson's 'alleged incriminating conduct'. 'The prosecution (Crown prosecutor Dr Nanette Rogers SC pictured) argued Patterson knew she was guilty and did what she did to conceal her guilt,' Justice Beale said. However, Justice Beale told the jury the defence has reasons for Patterson's behaviour. 'The defence claimed there were innocent explanations for that behaviour,' he added. Justice Beale listed some of that alleged 'incriminating' conduct: 1. She lied about being unwell after the lunch 2. Patterson lied about the Asian grocer mushrooms 3. She refused treatment at hospital and left against medical advice 4. She had reluctance to accept treatment the second time at hospital 5. Patterson was reluctant to get kids treated on July 31 6. Why would she have fed the kids leftovers? 7. She reset Phone B multiple times on August 2 8. She dumped the dehydrator 9. On August 5, she provided Phone B instead of Phone A 10. Patterson lied to cops about her phone number 11. She lied about foraging 12. She lied about owning a dehydrator Justice Beale told the jury about the defence and prosecution's reason why Patterson left hopsital the first time early on July 31. He alerted the jury that thos morning he will commence talking about the topic of the Asian store mushrooms claim. The trial will resume at 10.30am. 22:20 Phone B factory reset multiple times The jury was again taken through the phone data contained within the Samsung A23 Patterson (legal team pictured) handed to police after they searched her home on August 5. The device, known throughout the trial as 'Phone B', was factory reset multiple times including while the device was in a secure storage locker at Homicide Squad HQ in the city. Justice Beale reminded the jury how phones were factory reset multiple times over different days following the lunch. He said Phone B factory reset remotely while it was in the police locker. 'After the phone had been taken into police custody, investigators can and should isolate the device from the network,' Justice Beale said. This can be done by putting the phone on airplane mode, the jury was told. 'Isolating the phone is critical to ensure data remains in its original state,' Justice Beale added. 22:19 Patterson 'likely' made iNaturalist search Yesterday, Justice Beale took the jury through the evidence of Patterson who said she couldn't remember if she looked up the iNaturalist website. The jury was told Patterson said she couldn't remember making the search but conceded it was likely it was her and not her children who made the search. Patterson, during her evidence, said she couldn't remember if she had an interest in death cap mushrooms on May 28, 2022 but said she wanted to know if death caps grew in South Gippsland. 'I wanted to know if death cap mushrooms grew in South Gippsland, and I found out that they didn't,' Justice Beale said Patterson previously told the jury. The jury was reminded the iNaturalist May 28 search was for a death cap sighting at Bricker Reserve in Moorabbin. Patterson judge to continue his address to the jury Justice Christopher Beale commenced his address to the jury - or 'charge' - on Tuesday after giving jurors a four-day weekend to prepare for the closing stage of the marathon Erin Patterson murder trial. Justice Beale indicated that his address will likely last until sometime today. Patterson, 50, is accused of murdering her in-laws, Don and Gail Patterson (both pictured), and Gail's sister, Heather Wilkinson, after allegedly serving them a beef Wellington lunch made with death cap mushrooms. Patterson is also accused of attempting to murder Heather's husband, pastor Ian Wilkinson, who survived the lunch after spending several weeks in an intensive care unit. The court heard Patterson's estranged husband, Simon, was also invited to the gathering at her home in Leongatha, in Victoria's Gippsland region, but didn't attend. Witnesses told the jury that Patterson ate her serving from a smaller, differently-coloured plate to those of her guests, who ate off four grey plates. Patterson told authorities she bought dried mushrooms from an unnamed Asian store in the Monash area of Melbourne, but health inspectors could find no evidence of this.
Gizmodo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Gizmodo
Mint Mobile Offers 50% Off Its Unlimited Plan and a Galaxy S25 Ultra for Less Than Samsung's Selling It For
There really shouldn't be a huge need to provide incentive for switching from one of the supersized Big Mobile carriers to Mint Mobile, where you get access to the nation's largest 5G network for amazingly low prices. But, as if their summer promotion offering all of their plans for just $15 per month wasn't enough, now they want to give you a crazy deal on a brand-new device. See at Mint Mobile For a limited time, Mint Mobile is offering new customers huge discounts on new devices like the Samsung Galaxy S25 smartphone when you buy it from Mint Mobile and pair it with two years of their Unlimited Plan at half price. The Galaxy S25 with Galaxy AI is even less expensive at Mint Mobile during this deal that runs until July 31 than it is at Samsung, and Samsung is not shy about giving out great deals. Do the Math This new offer tracks out to two years of Mint Mobile's Unlimited Plan — high-speed data on that massive 5G network and unlimited text and talk — for just $30 per month, and that's on top of a huge $440 price break on a Samsung Galaxy S25 or other device like the Google Pixel 9, Samsung Galaxy S25 Edge, or Galaxy S25+. This awesome deal is for new customers only from now until July 31, but Mint Mobile makes switching to their service so quick and easy that you'll be asking yourself what took you so long to switch in the first place. Another great perk — you can make the switch and score your new smartphone from your couch, because Mint Mobile is an online-only operation that takes the money it saves from not operating brick-and-mortar stores or other overhead costs and turns it into great prices for its customers. A Deal for Everyone Even if you're feeling particularly attached to your existing smartphone and would rather decline the huge $440 discount offer on a new select Samsung or Google smartphone (we're looking at you, iPhone loyalists), making the switch to Mint Mobile is still a great idea. They're happy to switch over your existing unlocked device to their service while letting you keep your phone number, and their plan options are among the most flexible and competitively priced you'll find anywhere. But this current offer for new customers — two years of Mint Mobile's Unlimited Plan at 50% off and $440 off a brand new Samsung Galaxy S25, S25+, Galaxy Edge, or Google Pixel 9 smartphone — falls under the 'too good to pass up' header. It's running from now until July 31 at Mint Mobile. See at Mint Mobile
