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Why a surprise jump in unemployment isn't as bad as it sounds
Why a surprise jump in unemployment isn't as bad as it sounds

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Why a surprise jump in unemployment isn't as bad as it sounds

New figures show Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% – its highest level since late 2021 – in June this year, up from 4.1% in May. While this is bad news, it's not as bad as it might seem. Higher unemployment came from more people looking for work. In the long run, that's good for the economy. And these figures also make it more likely we'll see an interest rate cut next month – which is now looking overdue. What's the bad news? This is the second month in a row we've seen no growth in total employment, while total hours worked (the number of hours worked by employed individuals, regardless of whether they are full-time, part-time or overtime) in the past month has gone backwards. All this adds to the picture of a slowing labour market since the start of the year, after surprisingly strong growth in the second half of 2024. The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics release also includes data on where extra hours worked during 2025 have come from. Employment growth has come entirely from the 'non-market sector' – which is healthcare and social assistance, education and training, and public administration and safety. And the big driver of those extra jobs has been in social assistance and health care, which is largely government-funded. That means employment has gone backwards in the rest of the economy, adding to a picture of a jobs market being propped up by government investment in the caring economy. Why it's not as bad as you might think The reason unemployment rose is that more people were looking for work – so it's not because employment fell. Of course, we'd prefer those people to have found jobs. But it does mean people weren't losing jobs for the unemployment rate to rise. The growth in labour force participation in June continues the trend of strong growth since late 2021. In the long run, that's a good thing – it means the country can produce more output, and more people gain an income from work. An interest rate cut now looks more certain Last week, the Reserve Bank surprised most people by keeping the cash rate on hold at 3.85%. Today's unemployment data is extra evidence that the labour market isn't contributing to inflation pressure – in fact, it's the opposite. It shows an interest rate cut is now overdue. The Reserve Bank board meets again in mid-August, with a decision on rates announced on August 12. When will we know if this is a blip or a trend? One possibility is that some of the extra people who became unemployed in June have a job to go to in the next month. Ups and downs in that group have at times been influential in driving unemployment numbers in recent times. In that case, this month's figures may partly turn out to be a blip. We'll be able to tell that when we see next month's figures. But the blip is unlikely to explain all of the rise in June. This is also about a labour market that is slowing. This article is republished from The Conversation. It was written by: Jeff Borland, The University of Melbourne Read more: Interest rates are on hold at 3.85%, as the Reserve Bank opts for caution over mortgage relief Child labour numbers rise in homes where adults are jobless – South African study Gen Z is struggling to find work: 4 strategies to move forward Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Can Australia reach its 2029 housing construction target? Data shows we're already falling behind
Can Australia reach its 2029 housing construction target? Data shows we're already falling behind

The Guardian

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • The Guardian

Can Australia reach its 2029 housing construction target? Data shows we're already falling behind

Australia will have to build housing at a significantly faster rate than it has in the last couple of decades to meet the government's target of 1.2m new homes between June 2024 and 2029. To hit the target we need about 240,000 new dwellings every year, and new data shows we are already falling behind. The most recent State of the Housing System report predicts we will fall short of the target by more than 260,000 homes, an even bigger miss than was predicted the year before. For decades, Australia built approximately 700,000 to 800,000 new dwellings every five years on average. This increased in the past decade – to more than 1m new dwellings constructed in 2014-2019, and just under 900,000 in 2019-2024. But to meet the 1.2m target, Australia would have to construct 20% more than in either of these five-year windows. There are ups and downs in housing construction for many reasons. But Prof Christian Nygaard from Swinburne University notes that Australia has built at a fairly consistent rate of about 25,000 detached houses and 10,000-15,000 dwellings of other types (apartments etc) a quarter since the 1980s, despite huge changes and economic disruptions. These include big swings in interest rates, the mining boom, introduction of the GST, changes to capital gains and negative gearing, the global financial crisis and even the Covid-19 pandemic. One reason these haven't had huge impacts is because housing construction is determined by the business models and needs of developers, landowners and other stakeholders, who aren't always responsive to price signals. 'If we ignore the internal logic of developers' business models/plans we end up quite substantially overestimating what can be achieved with planning reform and cutting red tape,' Nygaard says. Nygaard also questions whether the 1.2m dwellings target will significantly impact affordability. 'The housing affordability challenges is the greatest for young and newly establishing households, for migrants, low and moderate income households, and First Nations Australians. 'These are also the households that are least likely to be able to compete for new supply.'

Durban has cheapest grocery basket — but families still can't afford to fill it
Durban has cheapest grocery basket — but families still can't afford to fill it

The Herald

time03-07-2025

  • Business
  • The Herald

Durban has cheapest grocery basket — but families still can't afford to fill it

Nationally, food prices dipped slightly month-on-month, down R23.46 from May though households are still paying R190.36 more than in June 2024. The index said that foods that rose by 5% or more included onions which increased by 9% and beef, by 5%. The Absa Agri Trends report said the spike in onion prices followed export-driven demand and limited local supply earlier this year. 'Market analysts note that onion prices are expected to decline after record increases from March and April. Prices increased to record highs due to heightened onion demand, specifically exports, and lowered local supply,' said Absa. Beef prices are also climbing due to supply disruptions caused by a recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease at one of South Africa's largest cattle feedlots. Other items that recorded increases of 2% or more include: White sugar (+2%) Chicken gizzards (+4%) Chicken livers (+2%) Beef liver (+3%) Wors (+4%) Carrots (+2%) Tinned pilchards (+2%) Stock cubes (+2%) The index also showed a few fruit and vegetables, including potatoes, green peppers, butternut and bananas, registered a fall in prices. Staples such as rice, sugar beans and brown bread also became more affordable. Dairy and protein items like full cream milk, polony and fish recorded small declines. The rising cost of food continues to outpace the earnings of low-income households. The National Minimum Wage (NMW) is R28.79 per hour, which equates to R4,606.40 for a 20-day working month. However, most workers use their wages to support families, not just themselves. 'For black South African workers, one wage typically must support four people. Dispersed in a worker's family of four people, the NMW is R1,151.60 per person. This is below the upper-bound poverty line of R1,634 per person per month,' said the PMBEJD. In June, the average cost of a nutritionally adequate food basket for a family of four was R3,809.26, nearly 83% of the full monthly minimum wage. The report said it costs R970.89 per month to feed one child a basic nutritious diet. The Child Support Grant of R560 falls 30% below the food poverty line of R796 and 42% below the amount needed to feed a child adequately. 'Over the past month, the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet decreased by R8.77. Year-on-year, the cost increased by R35.80,' said the index. In addition to food, households are feeling pressure from rising hygiene product prices. The Household Domestic and Personal Hygiene Index rose by R11.96 month-on-month and R11.81 year-on-year, bringing the average cost of basic hygiene products to R1,041.47 in June. TimesLIVE

Microsoft to cut 9,000 jobs in second round of layoffs this year
Microsoft to cut 9,000 jobs in second round of layoffs this year

NHK

time03-07-2025

  • Business
  • NHK

Microsoft to cut 9,000 jobs in second round of layoffs this year

US tech giant Microsoft has announced it will slash about 9,000 jobs in its second round of major layoffs this year. The firm is believed to be focusing on developing artificial intelligence and streamlining its operations. Microsoft revealed its plan on Wednesday, saying it will reduce its total workforce by less than four percent. Officials say Microsoft had approximately 228,000 employees as of June 30, 2024, suggesting that roughly 9,000 people will be laid off. A Microsoft spokesperson says, "We continue to implement organizational changes necessary to best position the company and teams for success in a dynamic marketplace." The move follows Microsoft's announcement in May that it would eliminate about 6,000 jobs. The firm says it is aiming to enhance efficiency by streamlining its operations, including downsizing its managerial staff. US media outlets report that Microsoft needs to focus its resources on certain areas amid spiraling spending associated with AI development. They add that the reduction plan may reflect increased operational efficiency due to the introduction of AI tools.

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