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CNBC
03-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Guard against market volatility in the second half with ‘boring' stocks, investor Jeff Kilburg says
Investors may find "boring" stocks a safer bet heading into the second half of the year, according to Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial. Markets were plagued by heightened volatility at the end of the first quarter and the start of the second, as fear and uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump's trade war spread. Stocks reached their lows of the year in early April, shortly after Trump announced his universal tariff policies. While stocks have recovered their losses since then — with the S & P 500 closing Wednesday 25% above its April closing low — Kilburg warned that volatility may not ease up for the reminder of 2025. In fact, he believes that the market is entering a new volatility regime and may continue to be sensitive to any type of geopolitical tensions. Kilburg pointed to the market's knee-jerk reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict as proof. "I think investor attention and needing to monitor your investments has never been more needed," he told CNBC in a recent interview. With volatility lingering at elevated levels, Kilburg believes that now is the time for investors to reposition themselves into the more defensive, blue-chip stocks that were sold off in April. "Some of these names that get no love on CNBC air waves, those are blue-chip industrial names that we've seen people tilt back into," he said. "The ripple effect that has happened after that really tumultuous couple of weeks is that people really want to own names that they know. They want to own names that they can touch and feel, and those are kind of the boring names." These more "boring," blue-chip stalwarts could help hedge against any upcoming uncertainty, Kilburg added, and may be why investors are again favoring industrial stocks. "That's why people have gotten a little more defensive, because honestly, we don't know what President Trump is going to say next. We don't know what his policy or ambition is next," he said. "Investors being uncertain of what shoe could potentially drop next, that has kind of made portfolios tilt more industrial, more defensive." Kilburg's top stock picks One name Kilburg likes that belongs to this category is Duke Energy . The electric and power stock has rallied nearly 9% this year, not including its 3.5% yield. Last week, Goldman Sachs upgraded its rating on Duke. "We raise Duke Energy from Neutral to Buy as the stock has lagged more defensive peers YTD and is making regulatory progress towards building significant generation that is not captured at current levels in our view," wrote analyst Carly Davenport. The bank's new price target of $132, lifted from $125, represents upside of approximately 13% from Duke Energy's Wednesday close. Another name Kilburg highlighted was Waste Management , which has gained 11% in 2025. Last month, Melius Research analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock with a buy rating, highlighting its "stable growth in a chaotic world." "Despite the market's growing appreciation for the quality of these industry leaders, we think there's more outperformance to come in both the short and long run, from lower risk, less downside to earnings, and higher growth," he wrote. "While relative multiples are roughly in line with historical levels, we think the premium deserved now is larger than in the past." Kilburg also mentioned Visa , up TK% this year. In June, Mizuho upgraded the credit card issuer to an outperform rating from neutral. "We see more reason for optimism as the remaining cash-to-card runway in the U.S. is longer than previously expected (we est. true U.S. card penetration at ~75% vs. 80-90% consensus). This leaves room for another decade of solid top-line growth domestically," wrote Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev. "Plus, V's performance in Canada & Nordics offers evidence of above-PCE growth, even when card penetration is > 90%." In the same note, Dolev lifted his price target to $425 per share from $359. This updated forecast represents a TK% upside from Visa's Wednesday closing price. Other names Kilburg highlighted include Costco , Verizon , JPMorgan , Masco , CVS , Comcast , Nutrien and Sysco .
CNBC
18-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Kilburg: My word of the day is rebalance
Jeff Kilburg, Founder & CEO at KKM Financial, sees S&P 500 testing new highs, urges rebalancing amid rising volatility; picks Amazon for AWS growth despite recent pullback.
CNBC
03-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Markets have never had two 20% declines in one year and won't this year, says KKM's Jeff Kilburg
Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how investors should participate in today's equity markets.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Tesla (TSLA) the Best Technology Stock to Buy for Long-Term Investment?
We recently published a list of the 13 Best Technology Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Investment. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stands against other tech stocks to buy for long-term investment. On May 12, Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial and Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities appeared together on CNBC to discuss AI, cybersecurity, and mega-cap tech, especially as tech stocks soar as the US-China tariff deal boosts market confidence. Jeff Kilburg first identified the tech software sector as the primary beneficiary of the recent market pause amid optimism and gains, and highlighted that markets are broadly positive. He noted that many investors underestimated how quickly a China trade deal would materialize and contrasted it with the UK deal, which was expected to be a slower, tentative template. Kilburg suggests that faster deal-making could continue and benefit several software companies, which have been overlooked due to the focus on the MAG7. Dan Ives concurred with Kilburg's view but singled out NVIDIA as the biggest near-to-medium-term beneficiary of the pause, especially given its prior exposure to China tariffs. He referenced the ongoing AI revolution and the surge in AI-related stocks and described the current environment as a dream scenario for tech investors. Ives anticipates new highs for tech and the broader market. He also described a 'golden age' for cybersecurity stocks, which are acting as secondary beneficiaries of AI growth. On a question about the impact of the admin's focus on reducing federal spending and debt, particularly on companies that derive substantial revenue from government contracts, Kilburg responded that this fiscal discipline is actually positive for software companies as it may drive more spending toward efficient software solutions. Kilburg also addressed the sectors to avoid or be cautious about amid the current market environment. He suggests trimming utilities, which have been a safe haven but may now be less attractive. He points out that the VIX volatility index dropping below 20, which is a big change from over 60 in April, indicates reduced market fear and increased investor confidence. This suggests a market environment favoring higher-beta and growth-oriented investments rather than defensive plays. We first sifted through stock screeners, ETFs, and financial media reports to compile a list of the top tech stocks that have grown over 15% in the past 3 years. We then selected the 13 stocks that were the most popular among elite hedge funds and that analysts were bullish on. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q4 2024. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here). 3-Year Revenue CAGR: 15.46% Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 126 Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation & storage systems. Its Automotive segment offers EVs and related services and products. Whereas the Energy Generation & Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation & energy storage products and related services. According to EV's Claudio Afonso, sales of the new Tesla vehicles in China dropped 58% from the previous week and 69% year-over-year in the second week of May, which is the lowest level since January. Still, on May 13, analyst Colin Langan from Wells Fargo maintained a Sell rating on the stock with a $120 price target. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is also facing challenges in Europe, with declines in vehicle registrations in key markets like the UK and Germany. The company is attempting to boost US sales by introducing a cheaper Model Y. Musk recently stated that the company is focused on bringing robotaxis to Austin in June, with unsupervised autonomy initially being solved for the Model Y in Austin. He anticipates expanding this capability to many other US cities by the end of 2025. While the exact ramp-up speed cannot be predicted, Musk is confident that millions of Tesla vehicles will be operating fully autonomously in H2 2026. JDP Capital Management initiated a new core position in the company and stated the following regarding Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its Q4 2024 investor letter: 'Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is new core position that I wrote about in 2024 Half Year Letter. The stock was up 115% in 2024. We benefited from the June 2024 timing of our purchase, buying after the stock had declined about 30% in the first part of the year. Overall, TSLA ranks 4th on our list of the best technology stocks to buy for long-term investment. While we acknowledge the growth potential of TSLA, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TSLA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. 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Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is NVIDIA (NVDA) the Best Technology Stock to Buy for Long-Term Investment?
We recently published a list of the 13 Best Technology Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Investment. In this article, we are going to take a look at where NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stands against other tech stocks to buy for long-term investment. On May 12, Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial and Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities appeared together on CNBC to discuss AI, cybersecurity, and mega-cap tech, especially as tech stocks soar as the US-China tariff deal boosts market confidence. Jeff Kilburg first identified the tech software sector as the primary beneficiary of the recent market pause amid optimism and gains, and highlighted that markets are broadly positive. He noted that many investors underestimated how quickly a China trade deal would materialize and contrasted it with the UK deal, which was expected to be a slower, tentative template. Kilburg suggests that faster deal-making could continue and benefit several software companies, which have been overlooked due to the focus on the MAG7. Dan Ives concurred with Kilburg's view but singled out NVIDIA as the biggest near-to-medium-term beneficiary of the pause, especially given its prior exposure to China tariffs. He referenced the ongoing AI revolution and the surge in AI-related stocks and described the current environment as a dream scenario for tech investors. Ives anticipates new highs for tech and the broader market. He also described a 'golden age' for cybersecurity stocks, which are acting as secondary beneficiaries of AI growth. On a question about the impact of the admin's focus on reducing federal spending and debt, particularly on companies that derive substantial revenue from government contracts, Kilburg responded that this fiscal discipline is actually positive for software companies as it may drive more spending toward efficient software solutions. Kilburg also addressed the sectors to avoid or be cautious about amid the current market environment. He suggests trimming utilities, which have been a safe haven but may now be less attractive. He points out that the VIX volatility index dropping below 20, which is a big change from over 60 in April, indicates reduced market fear and increased investor confidence. This suggests a market environment favoring higher-beta and growth-oriented investments rather than defensive plays. We first sifted through stock screeners, ETFs, and financial media reports to compile a list of the top tech stocks that have grown over 15% in the past 3 years. We then selected the 13 stocks that were the most popular among elite hedge funds and that analysts were bullish on. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q4 2024. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here). A close-up of a colorful high-end graphics card being plugged in to a gaming computer. 3-Year Revenue CAGR: 69.25% Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 223 NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a tech company known for its edge in GPUs and AI platforms. Its primary revenue stems from data center GPUs like the H100 and Blackwell chips, which are essential components for AI workloads. The company is positioned to target huge markets like a $1 trillion-plus AI market, a $500 billion enterprise AI sector, and a $50 trillion robotics market. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a deal to grant Saudi Arabia greater access to advanced AI chips from companies like NVIDIA and AMD. The end goal is to boost the Gulf nation's data center capacity amid US officials' concerns about Chinese access to this tech through diverted shipments and/or cloud capabilities. An initial agreement has already been reached, but other negotiations are still being made, such as those concerning the potential US government control over data centers that use American chips. On May 12, UBS lowered the price target on NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) to $175 from $180 while keeping a Buy rating as it expects FQ1 2026 revenue to be ahead of the $43 billion guidance, even with the H20 ban. NVIDIA is now preparing a downgraded version of its H20 chip for China to stay competitive, as China contributed $17 billion in revenue to NVIDIA, which was 13% of the company's total sales in FY2025. UBS expects growth to reaccelerate in H2 as NVIDIA is potentially allowed to resume shipments of data center GPUs to China. Guinness Global Innovators is highly bullish on NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) due to its dominant AI chip market position. It stated the following in its Q4 2024 investor letter: 'For a second year running, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was the Fund's top performing stock, delivering a stellar return of +177.7% over the year. Since the beginning of last year, Nvidia's 'Hopper' GPUs have been at the centre of exploding demand for chips powerful and efficient enough to facilitate the energy intensive requirements of AI processes within datacentres. Initially possessing over 95% of market share in these types of chips, Nvidia have been quick to entrench their position as the technological leader in the space, launching the successor to the current 'Hopper' GPU in March, Blackwell, inhibiting the likes of AMD and Intel making meaningful inroads in taking share of the fast-growing market. Compared to the previous iteration (Hopper) which is continuing to fuel Nvidia's extreme revenue growth, the Blackwell chip is twice as powerful for training AI models and has 5 times the capability when it comes to 'inference' (the speed at which AI models respond to queries). Throughout the year, Nvidia's financial performance has remained resilient. Quarterly revenues hit $35.1 billion in their most recent quarter, beating consensus expectations by 6% and representing a +94% year-over-year increase. Additionally, Nvidia's data centre segment, driven by the Hopper (H100) chip, grew fivefold over the past year, underscoring the sustained demand for advanced AI infrastructure. The H100 chip, priced at around $40,000, continues to see significant adoption due to its ability to enhance AI model training efficiency while lowering overall costs. This growth is expected to continue as companies invest in upgrading existing data centres and building new ones, with Nvidia well-positioned to capture a significant share of the estimated $2 trillion market opportunity over the next five years. There have been some concerns over Blackwell production delays causing share price volatility however, Nvidia has recovered swiftly, driven by positive earnings results through the year and assurances from management regarding future supply. Additionally, the release of the H200 chip promises to extend Nvidia's technological leadership, ensuring continued momentum into 2025. While Nvidia's valuation remains a topic of debate, the stock is not at a significant premium to history, and it still appears reasonable given its dominant market position, innovative prowess, and exposure to long-term secular growth trends in AI, cloud computing, and data infrastructure. As a result, Nvidia remains well-positioned to deliver sustained outperformance over the long term, making it a cornerstone of growth-oriented portfolios.' Overall, NVDA ranks 1st on our list of the best technology stocks to buy for long-term investment. While we acknowledge the growth potential of NVDA, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NVDA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
