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The Saturday Spread: Using Markov Chains to Help Extract Profits From DPZ, AKAM and DOCU
The Saturday Spread: Using Markov Chains to Help Extract Profits From DPZ, AKAM and DOCU

Yahoo

time05-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

The Saturday Spread: Using Markov Chains to Help Extract Profits From DPZ, AKAM and DOCU

While the use of Markov chains — a statistical framework to decipher the probability of one event transitioning to another — in finance is not a novel concept, it's not deployed effectively. In my research, I have come across two papers analyzing Markovian principles in the stock market: 'Stock market analysis with a Markovian approach' by the KTH Royal Institute of Technology and 'Forecasting Stock Prices using Markov Chains: Evidence from the Iraqi Stock Exchange' by the University of Sumer. Conceptually, both papers attempt to decipher the utility of Markov chains to predict future market trajectories, which should yield compelling results. After all, the concept originated from Russian mathematician Andrey Markov, one of the most brilliant scientific minds and thought leaders. Unfortunately, the researchers from the aforementioned academic institutions extracted only negligible to marginal performance metrics relative to a coin toss — so, what the heck is going on here? Meta Platforms Stock Looks Cheap - Short OTM Puts for a 2% One-Month Yield Costco's Unusual Options Activity Provides Income Investors With Good Opportunity Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Fundamentally, the problem centers on the researchers' deployment of a 'literal' Markov chain — one time unit in the past to determine one time unit in the future. To be fair, KTH ran a study featuring two time units in the past but the same problem applies — the analysis would only capture an isolated price action without consideration of the underlying context or sentiment regime. In short, the academic papers' input is Gaussian in nature; therefore, we shouldn't be surprised if the output is also Gaussian. In order to generate a true Markovian framework, the input must also be Markovian. To achieve a proper framework, it's vital to apply the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law. My solution is to discretize the last 10 weeks of price action and segregate the profiles into distinct, discrete behavioral states. This way, we're not just capturing isolated price action but sustained behaviors — behaviors that can better predict outcomes based on underlying situational dynamics. Using modified Markov chains optimized for the stock market, below are three statistically compelling ideas to consider this week. While shares of Domino's Pizza (DPZ) are up nearly 8% so far this year, they're down nearly 3% in the trailing month. In the past two months, the price action of DPZ stock can be converted as a '3-7-D' sequence: three up weeks, seven down weeks, with a negative trajectory across the 10-week period. Naturally, this conversion process compresses DPZ's price dynamism into a simple binary code. The benefit, though, is that the price action can be distinguished as belonging to one of several distinct, contingent demand profiles. Subsequently, these profiles serve as the backbone of past analogs, from which probabilistic analyses can be extracted. Regarding DPZ stock, whenever the 3-7-D sequence flashes, the price action for the following week (which corresponds with the business week beginning July 7) results in upside 61.54% of the time, with a median return of 2.93%. Should the bulls maintain control of the market for a second week, investors may anticipate an additional 1.69% of performance. Using data from Barchart Premier, we can mathematically determine intriguing options strategies based on risk-reward ratios. In my opinion, the potential reversal signal of the 3-7-D sequence shines a spotlight on the 460/470 bull call spread expiring July 18. Interested speculators can learn more about the capped-risk, capped-reward structure of bull spreads here. Plenty of finance gurus hawk the trite adage 'buy low, sell high.' Yeah, well, is anyone going to explain when to buy low? That's the beauty of using Markov chains — when applied appropriately, they can provide an empirical guideline to augment your decision-making process. Let's use Akamai Technologies (AKAM) as an example. Since the start of the year, AKAM stock has dropped nearly 17%. With a Markovian framework, I don't really care why it fell; only that it did and specifically how it did. By observing the past analogs of market behaviors, we can determine the probability of how the security may react in the future. In the past 10 weeks, AKAM stock printed a 4-6-D sequence. Since January 2019, this sequence has materialized 34 times. Further, in 61.76% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 2.65%. If the bulls maintain control of the market for a second week, there may be an additional 0.89% to 1% of performance tacked on. For a wildly aggressive but still rational trade, speculators may consider the 81/82 bull spread expiring July 18. Another high-risk, high-reward idea is DocuSign (DOCU), a global provider of cloud-based software. As you can tell if you pull up its chart, DOCU stock isn't having a great time this year, down more than 12% since the January opener. Again, I don't really care why the stock fell but the way that it did. Honestly, providing an opinion of DocuSign would be like summarizing yesterday's newspaper. By the time you actually read the story, the narrative could be two days old. I aim to provide an empirically grounded Markovian analysis, not post-hoc rationalizations that dominate the financial publication ecosystem. Getting back to DOCU stock, the security printed a 6-4-D sequence, a relatively rare pattern. Since January 2019, the sequence has materialized 17 times. In 58.82% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 3.57%. Should the bulls maintain control of the market for a three-week period, traders may anticipate another 2.24% of tacked-on performance. If you're feeling bold and want to throw into double coverage for a chance of a big score, you may consider the 81/83 bull spread expiring July 25. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on

Nordic Breakthrough for Unlimited Fossil-Free Energy - NOVATRON 1 Officially Inaugurated
Nordic Breakthrough for Unlimited Fossil-Free Energy - NOVATRON 1 Officially Inaugurated

Yahoo

time10-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Nordic Breakthrough for Unlimited Fossil-Free Energy - NOVATRON 1 Officially Inaugurated

STOCKHOLM, June 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- On June 9, NOVATRON 1 was officially inaugurated at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm - the EU's first private, fully integrated fusion plasma system. The event marks a historic milestone for Sweden and the Nordic region in the development of commercial fusion energy. With Novatron Fusion Group (NFG) leading the charge, the Nordics are uniquely positioned to shape the future of energy through innovation, collaboration, and technological leadership. Fusion technology has the potential to address some of the most pressing global challenges of our time - from climate change to growing energy demand. Realizing this potential requires cross-sector collaboration between industry, academia, and policymakers. NFG is actively working to establish a strong Nordic fusion cluster and position the region as a driving force in the transition to a sustainable energy future. The inauguration brought together representatives from across the Nordic innovation ecosystem - including industry, academia, and government - with nearly all parties from the Swedish Parliament's Energy Committee in attendance. The broad participation underscores the strong support for fusion's role in the future energy mix. - The inauguration of NOVATRON 1 is a milestone - not only for our company but for the entire Nordic region. We're showing that it's possible to take concrete steps toward commercial fusion energy here and now. Our vision is that the Nordics will realize fusion, and today's event is powerful proof that we're on the right path, says Peter Roos, CEO of Novatron Fusion Group. Fusion energy - often referred to as "The Holy Grail of Energy" - has the potential to deliver continuous, safe, and fossil-free baseload power. As one of Europe's leading fusion companies, NFG is not only advancing fusion energy in the Nordics but also helping to strengthen Europe's energy resilience. At a time when G7 nations are highlighting fusion as a strategic solution to the climate crisis and energy security, European independence and cooperation in the energy sector are more important than ever. - NFG's groundbreaking technology is a vital contribution from Sweden to Europe's energy independence and climate transition, says Professor Christer Fuglesang, KTH Space Center. The NOVATRON concept is based on a unique design by innovator Jan Jäderberg and has been developed by a world-class team of physicists, engineers, and researchers. The technology addresses one of the biggest challenges in commercial fusion: stable and continuous confinement of fusion plasma without interruptions in energy production. This is described in more detail in a scientific article published last week, which highlights, among other things, NOVATRON's potential to achieve groundbreaking energy exchange values. With this promising concept, NFG aims to provide cost-effective and globally scalable baseload power to the grid within the next decade. During the inauguration, visitors witnessed a live plasma experiment in the prototype facility - the Nordic region's first step toward a commercial fusion reactor and a fossil-free society. - We believe that NFG has a game changing formula and as an owner with a long-term mindset, we're excited to help accelerate the work towards limitless fossil-free energy, says Henrikki Talvitie, CEO of St1. For more information, please contact:Jeanette MattssonMarketing and Communications Director, Novatron Fusion GroupEmail: Phone: +46 76 051 75 16 This information was brought to you by Cision The following files are available for download: NFG press release Peter Roos, CEO of NFG Prof. Christer Fuglesang Swedish Parliament's Energy Committee and CEO of NFG View original content: Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

These Rare Fork-Nosed Dogs Could Help Solve a Genetic Mystery in Humans
These Rare Fork-Nosed Dogs Could Help Solve a Genetic Mystery in Humans

Gizmodo

time09-05-2025

  • Health
  • Gizmodo

These Rare Fork-Nosed Dogs Could Help Solve a Genetic Mystery in Humans

A rare breed of hunting dogs known for its forked nose, the Turkish Pointer, might just help scientists better understand why human babies are sometimes born with facial clefts. In a recent study, researchers say they've found the genetic mutation that causes these dogs to develop their characteristic split nose. They argue that similar mutations might also explain some cases of cleft lip and palate in humans. An international research team conducted the study, including scientists from the National Institutes of Health in the U.S. and the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden. They analyzed the genetics of some 2,000 dogs, eventually discovering several new gene variants linked to a dog's facial structure and size. One of these variants was found in the Turkish Pointer, also known as the Catalburun. The mutation concerns the gene PDFGRA. The researchers say that the gene seems to help connect the two halves of the face and mouth during embryonic development, with the unique variant in Turkish Pointers explaining their split-nose appearance. 'This indicates that the gene might be involved in some cases of human orofacial clefts,' said study researcher Peter Savolainen, a canine geneticist at KTH, in a statement from the institute. 'While there are several genetic and environmental reasons behind orofacial clefts in humans, this study offers a clue to another factor.' The team's findings were published earlier this March in the journal Genome Research. Facial clefts, which can involve the lips and/or palate, are thought to occur in one out of every 700 births. If untreated, the condition can hamper a person's feeding and speaking and raise the risk of ear infections. These days, thankfully, it can usually be repaired very successfully with surgery. Most cases of facial clefts have no clear cause, though factors like smoking, diabetes, and the use of certain medications during pregnancy seem to increase the risk. As their name suggests, Turkish Pointers have primarily been bred in select parts of Turkey. They're said to be incredibly good sniffers, but they're also rare, with only a few hundred specimens thought to be living today (the breed isn't even officially recognized by any kennel club). Their tiny population numbers do raise the risk of genetic disease, though this is an issue with purebred dogs in general. But these dogs and other rare breeds also make it easier for scientists to isolate genes and mutations relevant to human health, the authors say. 'Studying the very inbred dog breeds is an excellent tool for finding the genetic reason for many morphologic traits and diseases in humans,' Savolainen said. 'In humans there is just too much genetic variation, making it hard to identify exactly which genetic mutation causes a specific disease.'

Pakistan's hospital starts administering new injection to save stroke-hit patients
Pakistan's hospital starts administering new injection to save stroke-hit patients

Gulf Today

time28-04-2025

  • Health
  • Gulf Today

Pakistan's hospital starts administering new injection to save stroke-hit patients

ISLAMABAD: The Khyber Teaching Hospital (KTH) Peshawar has started administering a new injection to save lives of stroke-hit patients. "A 60-year-old patient, who has been administered the injection, is doing well as she was brought to the hospital within one hour of the attack and therefore stood better chances of recovery,' KTH medical director Dr Sajjadullah Dawar said, according to a report. He said that patients should reach hospital ideally within three hours of the stroke attack but the result of patients visiting the health facility within four to five hours was also good. Dr Dawar, a neurosurgeon, said that they got stock of the medicine from the hospital's funds to be provided free of cost to patients. "Meanwhile, the government has agreed to include this drug in the Sehat Card Plus (SCP) scheme so that people could benefit from it in the long-run,' he said. A volunteer of the Edhi Foundation sprays water on a passerby's head to cool off on a hot summer day along a road in Karachi. AFP The administration of the injection has already been started in Hayatabad Medical Complex and Lady Reading Hospital in Peshawar that helped scores of stroke-hit people to recover. However, both LRH and Hayat Medical Complex administrations have been requesting the government to provide it on SCP because it is very expensive and the majority of patients cannot afford it. Dr Dawar said that the government would soon announce to cover the cost of new therapy under SCP to ensure provision of smooth services to patients. LRH and HMC have been providing the injection to patients on a cost-sharing basis. However, it has been provided totally free to some deserving patients but its inclusion in SCP will make this drug available to all the patients who need it. He said that they had developed proper protocol and a team of specialist doctors to ensure that the new medical technique for free treatment of patients suffering from stroke helped people. "The injection is known for saving lives of patients and protecting them from disabilities caused by stroke,' said Dr Dawar. He said that the tissue plasminogen activator (TPA) injection was used in hyper acute stroke within three hours to open up clotted arteries and was administered to patients after a very careful selection process. "So far, results are excellent as most of the patients, who received it in LRH and HMC, have recovered,' he said and added that people should bear in mind that patients should be brought to hospitals immediately. He said that stroke was a sudden onset of weakness in limbs or face, which was the most disabling disease of the world.

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