Latest news with #KallumPickering
Times
22-06-2025
- Business
- Times
Oil ‘will surge above $100 a barrel' if Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices will surge above $100 a barrel if Iran blocks the world's most important crude shipping route in retaliation for America bombing its nuclear sites, analysts believe. Iran's parliament voted on Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which tankers carry about a fifth of global oil supplies. All eyes are on whether Iran's Supreme National Security Council decides to approve the often-threatened but never-implemented step, which analysts described as a 'worst-case scenario'. Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said an attempt by Iran to attack or mine the strait would cause 'a significant global supply and price shock, depressing global GDP and pushing up inflation'. Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, has already risen by about $10 a barrel to more than $77 since Israel began its strikes on Iran on June 13, amid fears that Iran could block the strait. Weekend betting markets forecast that Brent would jump by another $4 to $5 a barrel when markets resumed trading late on Sunday night, taking prices above $80 a barrel for the first time since January. Sir Niall Ferguson, the historian, has warned that markets have been 'complacent' about the risk of Iran blocking the strait, as Tehran could strike out in its 'death throes'. That would send oil 'way above' $100 a barrel and cause a huge economic shock on a scale not seen since the 1970s, he told The Times CEO Summit. • 'Iranian regime in death throes risks a major economic shock' David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, has said that closure of the strait could send prices to between $100 and $150 a barrel. The Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 led to prices roughly quadrupling, from about $3 to almost $12 a barrel, while the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the subsequent Iran-Iraq war, which reduced output from both countries, resulted in oil prices more than doubling from $14 in 1978 to $35 in 1981. More recently oil prices spiked as high as $139 a barrel at one point in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many analysts still do not expect Tehran to follow through on its threats to block the strait, in part because it would be likely to harm Iranian allies and customers more than it would hurt America. Pickering said it was 'worth noting that China is heavily dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for its trade'. • Iain Macwhirter: Leaving oil and gas in the ground was always a pipe dream 'If Iran tries to block that stretch of water, it risks an all-out war with the most powerful country in the world [the US] and badly antagonising the second most powerful [China],' he said. 'Headlines predicting oil prices above $100 a barrel should be viewed as forecasts for worst-case scenarios at this stage.' As well as a crucial shipping route for oil tankers, the strait between Iran and Oman, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, is also the route taken by about a fifth of global exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said he had 'long held the view that strategic considerations, particularly toward Iran-friendly Qatar and its vital LNG exports, and Iran's dependence on China — its largest oil customer — would act as a restraining force', as long as Iran's own oil export facilities were not targeted. However, he added that 'even without a full-scale disruption, the mere threat of interference in the strait could delay shipments and trigger a sharper-than-expected short-term spike in prices'. He said that the US and China could release strategic oil reserves to ease prices, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could redirect some of their exports via pipelines to facilities outside the strait. James Bambino, senior oil analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said the world had sufficient oil supply to meet demand even if Iranian exports were affected — 'so long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open — and we expect that it will'.
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Investors ‘pulling money out of US' after Trump trade chaos
Investors are shifting their money out of America and into Europe following the outbreak of Donald Trump's trade war, according to the boss of one of the City's leading stockbrokers. Steven Fine, the chief executive of Peel Hunt, said spooked traders had pulled an 'awful lot of money' from US markets in recent months, primarily because of the president's 'liberation day' tariff blitz. This has led to a greater degree of interest in the UK, he added. He said: 'When you're investing all your money domestically and someone can literally turn around unilaterally and say 'Right, we're not doing that any more', it's like 'Oh my God, what does that mean?'' This shift in investor sentiment marks a significant turnaround as almost $24 trillion has been pumped into US assets since 2010, according to Peel Hunt. Mr Fine said the chaos unleashed by Mr Trump had 'predicated a concern that excessive concentration in a single jurisdiction might not necessarily be the best thing'. Kallum Pickering, Peel Hunt's chief economist, also pointed to the weaker dollar as an example of how investor money is shifting away from the US. The dollar has fallen nearly 8pc against the pound since the turn of the year and has slumped by nearly 11pc versus the euro in that time. Mr Fine said: 'You think about the return of the S&P 500 over the last five years and you think, where do you want to put your money for the next five years? Suddenly [liberation day] happens, and it's like 'Ah, maybe it's not quite as [attractive].' However, Peel Hunt warned of the negative impact of tariffs on dealmaking in the City, particularly as the stockbroker is already battling a dearth of listings on the London Stock Exchange. The company said there have been 'historically low' levels of activity in UK stock markets over the last year. This led to Peel Hunt posting pre-tax losses of £3.5m for the year to the end of March, compared to a £3.3m loss the year before. However, revenues rose by 6pc to hit £91.3m. One of its highlights for the year was advising on the deal to list French TV and film giant Canal+ in London in December. Mr Fine said: 'Ongoing uncertainty continued to weigh on equity capital markets activity during the period, driven by geopolitical risks, elections, stagflation fears and US trade tariffs. 'Our diversified offering meant we were able to support clients through these changing market conditions.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Telegraph
16-06-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Traders ‘pulling money out of US' after Trump trade chaos
Investors are shifting their money out of America and into Europe following the outbreak of Donald Trump's trade war, according to the boss of one of the City's leading stockbrokers. Steven Fine, the chief executive of Peel Hunt, said spooked traders had pulled an 'awful lot of money' from US markets in recent months, primarily because of the president's 'liberation day' tariff blitz. This has led to a greater degree of interest in the UK, he added. He said: 'When you're investing all your money domestically and someone can literally turn around unilaterally and say 'Right, we're not doing that any more', it's like 'Oh my God, what does that mean?'' This shift in investor sentiment marks a significant turnaround as almost $24 trillion has been pumped into US assets since 2010, according to Peel Hunt. Mr Fine said the chaos unleashed by Mr Trump had 'predicated a concern that excessive concentration in a single jurisdiction might not necessarily be the best thing'. Kallum Pickering, Peel Hunt's chief economist, also pointed to the weaker dollar as an example of how investor money is shifting away from the US. The dollar has fallen nearly 8pc against the pound since the turn of the year and has slumped by nearly 11pc versus the euro in that time. Mr Fine said: 'You think about the return of the S&P 500 over the last five years and you think, where do you want to put your money for the next five years? Suddenly [liberation day] happens, and it's like 'Ah, maybe it's not quite as [attractive].' However, Peel Hunt warned of the negative impact of tariffs on dealmaking in the City, particularly as the stockbroker is already battling a dearth of listings on the London Stock Exchange. The company said there have been 'historically low' levels of activity in UK stock markets over the last year. This led to Peel Hunt posting pre-tax losses of £3.5m for the year to the end of March, compared to a £3.3m loss the year before. However, revenues rose by 6pc to hit £91.3m. One of its highlights for the year was advising on the deal to list French TV and film giant Canal+ in London in December. Mr Fine said: 'Ongoing uncertainty continued to weigh on equity capital markets activity during the period, driven by geopolitical risks, elections, stagflation fears and US trade tariffs. 'Our diversified offering meant we were able to support clients through these changing market conditions.'
Daily Mail
12-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
QUENTIN LETTS: Mrs Badenoch was perkier than usual. Does she finally glimpse hope?
Does Kemi Badenoch finally glimpse hope? The rotten economic growth figures were published shortly before she made a speech in the City of London. By that time the nation had been subjected to downbeat verdicts on the government's spending splurge and to the sight and sound of Rachel Reeves on the breakfast airwaves. Captain of sinking pedalo urges passengers not to abandon ship. Mrs Badenoch strolled into the low-ceilinged, implausibly-chandeliered function room of one of those modern hotels on the edge of the Square Mile. The event was the FTSE 250+ conference, an assembly of 'key risk-takers' seeking 'sharp perspectives from the front lines of our turbulent, opportunity-rich markets'. A fruit-juice-and-Danish-pastries affair. The session was chaired by an economist, Kallum Pickering, who bluntly told the Tory leader 'we're all a bit grumpy'. Skinny, bearded Kallum explained that the audience – youthful, cologned – felt 'like a stalled engine but with a bit of clear road we could be pumping pistons'. He was resentful of political embuggeration and did not exonerate the last Tory government. Kemi rather agreed with him. She thought Net Zero targets were nuts. She was at ease with these people. It was an easier gig for her, say, than a hall full of public sector workers. She recalled her own City days when she came to 'loathe compliance culture'. The room warmed to that. These were people whose lives are made a misery by human-resources nags. She attacked big corporate outfits that 'profited from bureaucracy'. Did she mean the 'big four' accountancy firms? The audience had not expected her to swipe at their bigger rivals. It gave a purr of approval. Time and again she attacked the 'bloated' state and a Labour cabinet that lacked business experience. A mention of Ms Reeves's fictitious curriculum vitae earned a laugh. Nigel Farage's lot wanted to nationalise industries, keep big benefit bills yet loosen tax bands. 'It's a scam. It's my job to expose this stuff. These are not serious people.' Kallum stroked his beard and pointed out that Reform was ahead in the opinion polls, with the Tories trailing in third place, a distant Austin Allegro with smoke billowing from its bonnet. Kemi: 'We have four years of Labour. From the way people are discussing the opinion polls you'd think there was an election next year. We have to tell people the truth.' Just before Christmas she had spoken to the Canadian Tory leader Pierre Poilievre, who at that point had a 23-point lead in the opinion polls. He has since lost both an election and his parliamentary seat. Things changed fast. Mrs Badenoch can be a dull performer. This time she was perkier. Maybe it was because she could say wonkish things and know that the audience would follow. Maybe it was because of 'events'. In the past fortnight Reform has had internal squabbles and taken a peculiar turn leftwards economically, while taking an anti-liberty step towards a burka ban. Has Mr Farage sacrificed both his authenticity and his cheerfulness? Then came Wednesday's spending review, with its mad billions and the inevitability of tax rises. Dreadful for the country but possibly a reprieve for Mrs Badenoch's Tories. 'It's going to be a revolution,' she said of her plans, breezily. 'We need to unleash animal spirits.' Animal spirits! Helen Whately, shadow welfare secretary, is more mouse than lion. Kemi feared 'the bond vigilantes' were circling over Ms Reeves. The Government's economic policy was 'in a death spiral' and this created a gap for the centre-right. 'That is the space I fill.' Coolly informal, she addressed them conversationally, more a colleague than a would-be political leader. 'I'm on your side,' she cooed, 'but I need you to be on mine, too.' She implored them to 'speak up' and 'tell your customers to speak up, too'. Was that a gurgling 'help, I'm drowning'? Or was it a sense, at last, that her refusal to panic in recent months might finally start to produce buds of a political recovery?
Bloomberg
14-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump Winds Down Riyadh Trip; Humain & Big Tech's Gulf Deals
US equity futures fluctuate after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 erased year-to-date losses. The dollar weakens on news of currency talks between the US and South Korea. President Trump winds down his visit to Saudi Arabia after a slew of deals were cut by American big tech firms and the Kingdom's newly created AI firm, Humain. Republicans say a SALT cap deal is likely. Kallum Pickering of Peel Hunt says the "hopium" theme running through markets is unsustainable in spite of trade war de-escalation. Marvin Loh of State Street says there remains a stagflation concern. 'Bloomberg Brief' delivers the market news, data and analysis you need to set your agenda. (Source: Bloomberg)
