Latest news with #KarimSadjadpour
New York Post
05-07-2025
- Politics
- New York Post
Between horror and hope ordinary Iranians brave an uncertain future
'To the whole world I have a message from Iran . . . This war is not our choice. We are not supporting it. But we feel that Israel is supporting us, caring about us . . . We are hostages here.' The face of the Iranian woman in the viral video from late June is masked under a black headwrap; only her eyes remain uncovered. Her voice is resolute, her words sharp and her English flawless. 'Help us because we cannot stand against them with bare hands . . . We are scared not from Israel and the United States but from our own regime.' 6 Israel's 12-Day War to dismantle Iran's nuclear ambitions appears to have been successful, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls upon Iranians to consider toppling the Islamic regime. POOL/AFP via Getty Images The unknown woman is one of the many thousands who have declared their solidarity with the United States and Israel for trying to end Iran's nuclear weapons program. To the surprise of many Iran watchers a 'rallying around the flag' did not happen during the nation's war with Israel. 'We haven't done it and we will not do it,' remarked another anonymous face in a different video, 'because this is not our flag.' Advertisement The disconnect between the aspirations of the Iranian government and the hopes of the Iranian people is aptly phrased by Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for Peace. 'The Iranian people want to be South Korea, while the regime wants to be North Korea. This is an untenable situation.' 6 Iran's exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi has begun to encourage his countrymen rally around a future where their nation is no longer controlled by the Mullahs in Tehran. Samuel Corum for NY Post By all accounts, the 'North Korea' of the Middle East is in far deeper trouble than it is willing to admit. Domestically, internal opposition is steadily growing with a mere 22% of Iranians surveyed preferring an Islamic Republic over other political systems. The same survey concludes that 86% of Iranians blame Iran's dire economy on 'domestic inefficiency and corruption.' Looking to deepen the divide between the regime and its people, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly reached out to Iranians' hearts and minds stating that he is not at war with the 'great' and 'brave' Iranian people, but with the Iranian regime. 'We are clearing the path for you to achieve your objective, which is freedom,' he said as the war began. Advertisement 6 Any reform in Iran takes place while considering the history of Mahsa Amini, the young woman killed by Iranian authorities in 2022 for failing to adhere to strict modest dress codes. IranWire via REUTERS His broadcasts in Farsi subtitles during prime evening hours across Iran have succeeded by at least one happy measure: an old but hugely popular song, 'Bibi-Gol' ('A flower called Bibi'), was recently dedicated to the Israeli prime minister (whose nickname is 'Bibi') in appreciation for his support of Iranians' call for freedom. Persian creativity aside, many of the Iranians I have spoken with are realistic, gripped with both hope and fear. Arvin, a 21-year old college student who wished to stay anonymous, feels the 'otherness' of being an Iranian and welcoming attacks on his homeland. But he blames the mullahs. 'My generation is suspended between two worlds: one that wants us to be free and prosperous. And another that rules over us with chain and lashes. We want to be part of the first world but are stuck in the second.' 6 Amini's death set off a global campaign for reform in Iran that ultimately failed to take hold. REUTERS Advertisement Despite the regime's weakened state and both Trump and Netanyahu's prodding to Iranians to rise up, for now Iranians have mostly opted to hunker down. Their fear is real. According to ISNA News and the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran, a 'season of traitor killing' has begun: a crackdown on Iran's Bahai, Kurd, Baluch and Jewish citizens that has resulted in hundreds of arrests and scores of death sentences. Historically, when given a choice between reform and repression, Tehran has opted for strangulation, exacting revenge and enacting draconian measures to retain its grip on power. Azar, a 22-year-old nursing student who joined the jubilant Iranian protestors on the first night of the bombings, has been in hiding ever since. 'They have cameras that identify people,' she told me over a hushed phone call. 'I shouldn't be on this call with you.' 6 Like Amini (above), hundreds of Iranians have been arrested — and dozens killed — amid a crackdown by regime authorities in the wake of the war with Israel. How are Iranians coping? Hundreds of thousands leave the country annually — some 180,000 in 2019 alone — for North America and Europe where their advanced degrees and professional skill sets have been in high demand. Exact figures are hard to verify, but according to a 2014 study, this worsening 'brain drain' accounts for an annual loss of $150 billion to the Islamic Republic's economy. Advertisement The regime has no plans to reverse the tide, long branding those who leave as traitors. 'They say the brains escaped. Let them escape . . . they are treacherous brains,' railed the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, in 1985. Those who remain hang on to the faint hope that the regime will collapse under the weight of its own brutality. While the clerics are in the throes of reconstituting their power in the aftermath of the Israeli and American bombings, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has stepped up his activities to unite Iranians. Earlier this week he announced plans for a summit 'of national cooperation' to lead the country in a 'democratic transition.' 6 Despite efforts like this one by Iranian leaders such as President, Masoud Pezeshkian to rally citizens around the flag, the war with Israel has only revealed cracks in regime authority that have been deepening for decades. APAImages/Shutterstock For many others, the 12-day war and Israel's attacks on symbolic regime institutions — such as the Basij militia headquarters, the notorious Evin prison and the state television station (IRIB) — represent a new kind of hope, one that is backed by the hard power of Washington and Tel Aviv. 'This regime should end,' pleads the masked woman in perfect English. 'If you leave this regime with these wounds they will hurt all of us — here, in Europe and in America. Please help us.' Nazee Moinian is an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Institute.
CNBC
23-06-2025
- Politics
- CNBC
Iranian regime doesn't seem to be on the imminent verge of collapse: Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour
Karim Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace senior fellow, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict following Washington's surprise attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, why he believes the strikes could spark a dangerous escalation, and more.
22-06-2025
- Politics
Possible Iran retaliation ‘tactical equivalent of a suicide bombing': Sadjadpour
On 'This Week,' Chris Christie and Karim Sadjadpour look at the fallout of the U.S. strikes on Iran.
Yahoo
22-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How could Iran respond to the U.S. attack on key nuclear sites? Its options are the ‘strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,' expert says
President Donald Trump announced Saturday night that the U.S. had bombed three key nuclear facilities in Iran and threatened more attacks if Tehran doesn't seek peace. All eyes are on Iran to see how it will retaliate. But an expert on the country said most of its options would likely induce a response that the regime would't survive. After U.S. strikes on three key nuclear facilities in Iran late Saturday, all eyes are on Tehran to see how it will respond. Until now, the fighting had mostly involved Iran and Israel, which launched airstrikes on the Islamic republic last week. President Donald Trump's decision to send bombers and cruise missiles into Iran dramatically escalates the conflict and moves the U.S. into offensive operations, not just a defensive posture to protect Israel and American troops in the region. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media that Iran 'reserves all options' in defending itself. While Trump threatened more attacks unless Iran seeks peace, Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a top Iran expert, said it's unlikely the country's leadership will go that route. But its response could also prove to be catastrophic. 'Many of Iran's retaliatory options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,' he said in a series of posts on X. 'They can strike US embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine the Strait of Hormuz, or rain missiles on Israel—but the regime may not survive the blowback.' Energy markets are poised to suffer a major jolt as investors digest the implications of the U.S. bombing Iran, a top oil exporter. Crude prices had already surged in the immediate aftermath of Israel's airstrikes, and could soar even higher, depending on how Iran responds. In a note last week, George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, estimated that the worst-case scenario of a complete disruption to Iranian oil supplies and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $120 per barrel. That's because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point in the global energy trade, as the equivalent of 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, or about 21 million barrels per day, flows through the narrow waterway. Iran's ability to use proxies and allies in the region to retaliate on its behalf has also been severely weakened as earlier Israeli attacks have crippled Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Meanwhile, Sadjadpour noted that Iran's Revolutionary Guards are a substantial force of 190,000 troops, but not monolithic. 'Do they continue to defer to the 86-year-old Khamenei as their commander in chief, though his regional and nuclear ambitions have now ended in colossal failure?' he asked. Other analysts also warned of the potential for Iran to retaliate by taking Americans as hostages or launching cyberattacks. And Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen said before Saturday that any U.S. attack on Iran would trigger attacks on U.S. vessels in the region. But retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who previously served as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told CNN that he doesn't think Iran will resort to a maximum response like blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it may launch some missiles at U.S. bases in the region or direct pro-Tehran militias in Iraq to attack U.S. forces. 'I don't see a major response,' he predicted. 'This Iranian regime calculates. It's very careful to understand where it wants to go.' There are about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region, mostly spread out across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. For now, it's not clear yet that the U.S. attacks on Iran will prove to be decisive. Sadjadpour noted that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believes caving in to pressure projects weakness and invites more pressure. But he also said Khamenei is not a 'reckless gambler,' creating tension between his survival instincts and his defiant instincts. 'This is an unprecedented moment in Iranian history,' Sadjadpour added. 'It could entrench the regime—or hasten its demise. It could prevent a nuclear Iran—or accelerate one. Military attacks/humiliations have both strengthened dictatorships (Iran 1980) and weakened them (Argentina, Milosevic).' This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
22-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How could Iran respond to the U.S. attack on key nuclear sites? Its options are the ‘strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,' expert says
President Donald Trump announced Saturday night that the U.S. had bombed three key nuclear facilities in Iran and threatened more attacks if Tehran doesn't seek peace. All eyes are on Iran to see how it will retaliate. But an expert on the country said most of its options would likely induce a response that the regime would't survive. After U.S. strikes on three key nuclear facilities in Iran late Saturday, all eyes are on Tehran to see how it will respond. Until now, the fighting had mostly involved Iran and Israel, which launched airstrikes on the Islamic republic last week. President Donald Trump's decision to send bombers and cruise missiles into Iran dramatically escalates the conflict and moves the U.S. into offensive operations, not just a defensive posture to protect Israel and American troops in the region. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media that Iran 'reserves all options' in defending itself. While Trump threatened more attacks unless Iran seeks peace, Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a top Iran expert, said it's unlikely the country's leadership will go that route. But its response could also prove to be catastrophic. 'Many of Iran's retaliatory options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,' he said in a series of posts on X. 'They can strike US embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine the Strait of Hormuz, or rain missiles on Israel—but the regime may not survive the blowback.' Energy markets are poised to suffer a major jolt as investors digest the implications of the U.S. bombing Iran, a top oil exporter. Crude prices had already surged in the immediate aftermath of Israel's airstrikes, and could soar even higher, depending on how Iran responds. In a note last week, George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, estimated that the worst-case scenario of a complete disruption to Iranian oil supplies and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $120 per barrel. That's because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point in the global energy trade, as the equivalent of 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, or about 21 million barrels per day, flows through the narrow waterway. Iran's ability to use proxies and allies in the region to retaliate on its behalf has also been severely weakened as earlier Israeli attacks have crippled Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Meanwhile, Sadjadpour noted that Iran's Revolutionary Guards are a substantial force of 190,000 troops, but not monolithic. 'Do they continue to defer to the 86-year-old Khamenei as their commander in chief, though his regional and nuclear ambitions have now ended in colossal failure?' he asked. Other analysts also warned of the potential for Iran to retaliate by taking Americans as hostages or launching cyberattacks. And Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen said before Saturday that any U.S. attack on Iran would trigger attacks on U.S. vessels in the region. But retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who previously served as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told CNN that he doesn't think Iran will resort to a maximum response like blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it may launch some missiles at U.S. bases in the region or direct pro-Tehran militias in Iraq to attack U.S. forces. 'I don't see a major response,' he predicted. 'This Iranian regime calculates. It's very careful to understand where it wants to go.' There are about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region, mostly spread out across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. For now, it's not clear yet that the U.S. attacks on Iran will prove to be decisive. Sadjadpour noted that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believes caving in to pressure projects weakness and invites more pressure. But he also said Khamenei is not a 'reckless gambler,' creating tension between his survival instincts and his defiant instincts. 'This is an unprecedented moment in Iranian history,' Sadjadpour added. 'It could entrench the regime—or hasten its demise. It could prevent a nuclear Iran—or accelerate one. Military attacks/humiliations have both strengthened dictatorships (Iran 1980) and weakened them (Argentina, Milosevic).' This story was originally featured on
