Latest news with #KatelynJetelina
Yahoo
18-07-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
We're Only Seeing the Beginning of the Texas Floods' Deadly Toll
Sign up for the Slatest to get the most insightful analysis, criticism, and advice out there, delivered to your inbox daily. July has been the month of the flash flood. The floods in Texas were particularly devastating: more than 130 deaths, 101 people still missing, and an estimated $18 billion to $22 billion in damage. Those were followed by floods in North Carolina, New Mexico, Chicago, and New York. More are forecast for the coming week, including in areas already hard-hit. Even in places where the floods have let up, the storm isn't over: Floods can lead to excess deaths long after the actual event. 'The health impacts of flooding aren't just immediate,' wrote Katelyn Jetelina last week in her newsletter, Your Local Epidemiologist. 'They often unfold over weeks and months.' Indeed, a recent study found that between 2000 and 2020 across the U.S., there were an estimated 22,000 additional deaths attributable to flooding. For reference, the National Weather Service estimates that there are around 127 deaths per year from flooding—that adds up to a little more than 2,500 direct deaths during that 20-year period. These 22,000 excess deaths, on the other hand, were caused by heart attacks, strokes, respiratory disease, and infectious diseases as much as a year out from the actual flood event. Another global study that looked at floods in 761 communities across 35 countries also found increased mortality risks, including cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, in the two months after the flooding event. Floods—like other natural disasters—cause emotional stress for people who have been displaced or lost loved ones, and that stress can take a physical toll. Then there's the fact that flooding can lead to mold growth in homes, which leads to increased risks for all sorts of things, including respiratory diseases and neurological disorders. Infectious diseases can spread after a flood if overwhelmed sewage systems contaminate local bodies of water. And people who have been displaced due to a natural disaster may lose access to necessary medications and health care. (Somewhat oddly, floods were associated with a decrease in deaths related to dementia and hypertensive diseases, possibly due to fewer diagnoses in the wake of a disrupted health care system or hastened death by another cause.) Older populations tend to be more vulnerable to these delayed impacts, as well as people with lower income or in less developed areas. In the 2000–2020 study, the causes varied by racial background: While white people represented the largest percentage of lives lost overall, Black and Hispanic people were more affected by external causes, such as lack of access to health care as a result of the flood. These insidious side effects linger and lurk, and it's thanks to studies that look at long-term associations that they don't go entirely uncounted. But those studies all share another takeaway: There need to be more of these studies. As a review of cardiovascular impacts following extreme storms noted, while 'a growing body of evidence suggests that victims of hurricanes have increased incidence of cardiovascular disease,' there's a 'lack of rigorous long-term evaluation of hurricane exposure,' and an absence of exploration into the mechanisms that might lead to worsened cardiovascular outcomes. In other words, a flood's death toll extends long past when we usually stop counting. As flooding and other natural disasters get worse due to climate change, the lives lost will eventually feel incalculable.
Time Magazine
09-07-2025
- Health
- Time Magazine
Measles Cases Hit a 33-Year High. Will Other Diseases Follow?
The number of measles cases in the U.S. has reached a 33-year record high, years after it was officially eliminated in the country, prompting public health experts to sound the alarm that other diseases could experience a similar resurgence. There have been 1,288 confirmed measles cases in the U.S. this year as of Tuesday, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). That's the largest number of cases reported in the country since 1992—eight years before the disease was declared eliminated from the U.S. Measles is a highly contagious disease that can lead to serious health complications, including death, but is vaccine preventable through the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. Public health experts have largely credited its official elimination from the U.S. to a successful vaccination program. Over the past few years, however, vaccination rates have decreased, and the number of measles cases has soared. In 92% of the cases confirmed in the country so far this year, CDC data show, the person who got measles was unvaccinated or their vaccination status was unknown. Read More: Do You Need a Measles Vaccine Booster? The alarming new case milestone didn't come as a surprise to many public health experts. 'I was expecting us to hit this record this year,' says Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and founder of the newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist. 'But it was more of the reality hitting that this has finally happened—that we are really here in this moment in 2025. And I'm very concerned about what it means for the future.' Experts warn that the rise in measles cases could be a harbinger for an increase in the prevalence of other diseases too. 'Measles is the most contagious virus on Earth, so it's often the first to resurge when vaccination coverage declines,' Jetelina says. 'We've managed to keep measles at bay for decades thanks to high vaccination rates, but those rates are slipping.' Experts have pointed to a variety of reasons for falling vaccination rates, including an increase in vaccine hesitancy amid the COVID-19 pandemic and as vaccine skeptics like Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have gained prominence. Kennedy, who has long spread disinformation about vaccines, last month removed all 17 members from a CDC vaccine advisory committee and appointed in their place several members who have previously expressed vaccine skeptic views. The new committee met for the first time weeks later, voting to stop recommending flu shots that contain thimerosal, an additive that the anti-vaccine movement has attacked for years despite numerous scientific studies finding no evidence that the trace amounts contained in some vaccines are harmful. The committee also indicated that it will review some childhood immunizations, leaving the door open for possible changes in the schedule of childhood vaccinations. The threshold for herd immunity against measles is generally considered to be 95%, meaning that 95% of people need to be vaccinated against the disease to prevent it from spreading. Data indicate that the U.S. has now dipped below that threshold: In the 2023-2024 school year, vaccination coverage among kindergartners was just 92.7%, according to the CDC. If this trend continues for other immunizations, experts say, it's possible other diseases could resurge. Which diseases those could be, though, 'depends on how bad this is going to get,' Jetelina says. Many diseases have a lower herd immunity threshold than measles—polio's, for instance, is around 80%—so 'it's going to take a lot more' for vaccination rates to drop that drastically, she adds. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, says he fears that the U.S. could face increasing cases of mumps and rubella, since the MMR vaccine protects against those diseases, too. The U.S. has already experienced a rise in whooping cough cases, due in part to declining vaccination rates, as well as the introduction of a new type of vaccine for the disease in the 1990s to replace one that was more effective but also had more side effects. 'I think right now, all vaccine preventable diseases are, in one way or another, at risk of experiencing major increases in illness,' Osterholm says. 'I think you're going to begin to see over time more of these vaccine preventable diseases coming back, and we're going to start seeing kids seriously ill and dying.' Public health experts describe feeling like America has suffered from a kind of amnesia over how serious many of these diseases are and why officials have encouraged getting vaccinated against them. Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, says he wishes that more people understood how dangerous measles can be. 'Those two little girls—that six-year-old and eight-year-old that died in west Texas—were perfectly healthy children,' Offit says. 'The reason they died is because measles can kill anybody, and I think we live in this sort of state of blissful ignorance, and you never think it's going to happen to you until it happens to you.' Thirteen percent of the confirmed measles cases in the U.S. this year have resulted in hospitalization, according to the CDC, including 21% of cases in children five or younger. Three people are confirmed to have died. At the same time, experts stress that this issue goes beyond measles. 'I want people to realize that this is not just about measles,' Jetelina says. 'It's far more than an infectious disease flare-up; it's a symbol of broken trust, eroded progress, rise of individualism replacing collective good, this system that's cracking under the weight of disinvestment and distrust.' 'Measles is a canary in the coal mine, and it signals something that has gone seriously wrong,' she continues. 'It's an unraveling of decades of progress, and there's a lot that needs to be done so we don't keep going backwards.'
Yahoo
13-03-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Health experts are wondering if the measles outbreak is a lot larger than it seems
A deadly West Texas measles outbreak that has so far been linked to two fatalities and hundreds of sick patients could be much more widespread than originally feared, according to health experts. If that is the case, authorities would need to act quickly and decisively to halt its continuing spread, which could potentially prove fatal in additional largely unvaccinated communities. So far, 223 cases have been identified across the Lone Star State since late January, and 29 patients have been hospitalized. Last month, the Texas Department of State Health Services warned that an infected individual may have exposed people — potentially hundreds of thousands — while traveling between San Marcos and San Antonio before they knew they were infected. But it's the deaths, in particular, that are concerning. The first fatality was reported in an unvaccinated child who had no underlying conditions and lived in the outbreak area. A second death was reported in New Mexico's nearby Lea County, also an unvaccinated patient. Their official cause of death remains under investigation, but the state's Department of Health confirmed the presence of the measles virus. New Mexico has reported 33 cases. With this many deaths, experts wonder if there should be more cases. In the U.S., death from complications of the virus occur in one to three of every 1,000 cases, according to the University of Chicago Medical Center. Infection can also lead to brain inflammation that can result in permanent damage. 'These two individuals could just be incredibly unlucky,' epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina told STAT News on Wednesday. 'It's just surprising, particularly given how few deaths we've had over the past 10 years.' 'My gut tells me there are cases that are unreported — you don't have to come in and get tested for measles,' Katherine Wells, the director of public health in Lubbock, told the outlet. 'It's going to be a long process to get everything measles-free again in this area, but I can't tell you if that's 500 cases or a thousand.' Texas says that, due to the nature of the measles virus, additional cases are likely to occur in the outbreak area and surrounding communities. Several obstacles are getting in the way of capturing the full scale of the country's largest outbreak in six years. Many of those in areas that could have exposures may not be cooperative or report infection. It's also possible that people don't know they are infected, especially in breakthrough cases. According to the Mayo Clinic, measles symptoms generally appear 10 to 14 days after exposure to the virus. Breakthrough infections in vaccinated people are linked to milder disease. Those cases are rare, but people near the outbreak are more susceptible. However, what is known is that measles is preventable through vaccines, and the risk of infection is present, thanks to dipping vaccination rates. Childhood vaccination rates have declined nationwide since the pandemic, and San Antonio-area schools are reportedly seeing more students opt out of vaccines, according to the San Antonio Express-News. It's not unexpected to see one or two cases in communities with high vaccine coverage. But Johns Hopkins University's Dr. Bill Moss cautions that another outbreak could occur if someone with measles goes to another community with a large population of unvaccinated individuals, which could leach into other areas. 'If your population around you has a measles vaccination rate of 95 percent or greater, that keeps the risk of an outbreak pretty low because even if one person had it, everybody else around that person is going to be vaccinated,' Dr. Erica Kaufman West, director of infectious diseases in the department of science, medicine and public health at the American Medical Association, said. 'Once it drops under 95 percent though, that's where you start to see these pockets of outbreaks.'
The Independent
13-03-2025
- Health
- The Independent
Health experts are wondering if the measles outbreak is a lot larger than it seems
A deadly West Texas measles outbreak that has so far been linked to two fatalities and hundreds of sick patients could be much more widespread than originally feared, according to health experts. If that is the case, authorities would need to act quickly and decisively to halt its continuing spread, which could potentially prove fatal in additional largely unvaccinated communities. So far, 223 cases have been identified across the Lone Star State since late January, and 29 patients have been hospitalized. Last month, the Texas Department of State Health Services warned that an infected individual may have exposed people — potentially hundreds of thousands — while traveling between San Marcos and San Antonio before they knew they were infected. But it's the deaths, in particular, that are concerning. The first fatality was reported in an unvaccinated child who had no underlying conditions and lived in the outbreak area. A second death was reported in New Mexico's nearby Lea County, also an unvaccinated patient. Their official cause of death remains under investigation, but the state's Department of Health confirmed the presence of the measles virus. New Mexico has reported 33 cases. With this many deaths, experts wonder if there should be more cases. In the U.S., death from complications of the virus occur in one to three of every 1,000 cases, according to the University of Chicago Medical Center. Infection can also lead to brain inflammation that can result in permanent damage. 'These two individuals could just be incredibly unlucky,' epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina told STAT News on Wednesday. 'It's just surprising, particularly given how few deaths we've had over the past 10 years.' 'My gut tells me there are cases that are unreported — you don't have to come in and get tested for measles,' Katherine Wells, the director of public health in Lubbock, told the outlet. 'It's going to be a long process to get everything measles-free again in this area, but I can't tell you if that's 500 cases or a thousand.' Texas says that, due to the nature of the measles virus, additional cases are likely to occur in the outbreak area and surrounding communities. Several obstacles are getting in the way of capturing the full scale of the country's largest outbreak in six years. Many of those in areas that could have exposures may not be cooperative or report infection. It's also possible that people don't know they are infected, especially in breakthrough cases. According to the Mayo Clinic, measles symptoms generally appear 10 to 14 days after exposure to the virus. Breakthrough infections in vaccinated people are linked to milder disease. Those cases are rare, but people near the outbreak are more susceptible. However, what is known is that measles is preventable through vaccines, and the risk of infection is present, thanks to dipping vaccination rates. Childhood vaccination rates have declined nationwide since the pandemic, and San Antonio-area schools are reportedly seeing more students opt out of vaccines, according to the San Antonio Express-News. It's not unexpected to see one or two cases in communities with high vaccine coverage. But Johns Hopkins University's Dr. Bill Moss cautions that another outbreak could occur if someone with measles goes to another community with a large population of unvaccinated individuals, which could leach into other areas. 'If your population around you has a measles vaccination rate of 95 percent or greater, that keeps the risk of an outbreak pretty low because even if one person had it, everybody else around that person is going to be vaccinated,' Dr. Erica Kaufman West, director of infectious diseases in the department of science, medicine and public health at the American Medical Association, said. 'Once it drops under 95 percent though, that's where you start to see these pockets of outbreaks.'
