Latest news with #KathyBostjancic
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
June jobs report reveals US added 147K jobs in June; unemployment dips
U.S. hiring unexpectedly picked up in June as employers added 147,000 jobs despite President Donald Trump's wide-ranging import tariffs, federal layoffs and immigration constraints. But state and local government hiring sharply boosted the gains. The private sector added just 74,000 jobs, fewest since two Southeast hurricanes dampened payroll growth in October and possibly auguring a broader slowdown. Average weekly hours clocked by private employees also ticked down to 34.2, a five-month low that reflects softer labor demand. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the Labor Department said Friday. Ahead of the report, economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated 110,000 jobs were added in June. "Many companies remain in a holding pattern and are hesitant to hire new workers amid heightened uncertainty about the impact of tariff policies on economic growth," Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote in a note to clients. "At the same time, they are not laying off workers in a large way, at least not yet." State and local governments led the job gains with 70,000. Health care, a reliable job engine the past couple of years, again drove the private-sector additions with 39,000. Leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants and bars. added 20,000, and construction, 15,000. But job creation continues to center around those few sectors, possibly signaling weaker hiring in coming months. Professional and business services shed 7,000 jobs as did manufacturing, which has been struggling because of the tariffs. Retail added just 2,400 positions. The federal government cut 7,000 jobss amid the Trump administration's widespread layoffs and has slashed 69,000 since January. Average hourly earnings rose 8 cents to $36.30, nudging the yearly from 3.9% to 3.7%. Wage growth has been slowing after soaring as a result of pandemic-related worker shortages. It's broadly aligned with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal, Oxford Economics has said. The overall solid job gains give the Fed little reason to reduce its key rate at a late July meeting despite persistent pressure from Trump. Since cutting interest rates by a percentage point late last year, the Fed has paused as it waits to assess the effects of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the economy. The Fed raises rates or keeps them higher for longer to battle inflation. It lowers rates to head off – or dig the economy out of – recession. The report "was strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to keep policy on hold as it monitors the impact of tariffs on inflation,' economist Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics wrote to clients. At the same time, the weakness in private-sector hiring "supports our view that the Fed will cut" rates three times by year's end "to bolster a slowing economy," Bostjancic said. The share of Americans working or looking for jobs fell from 62.4% to 62.3%, lowest since December 2022 and a sign that Trump's tougher immigration enforcement is constraining the labor supply. The 130,000 decline in the labor force helped push down the unemployment rate. The drop suggests that 'ICE raids may be keeping immigrants away from work,' economist Bradley Saunders of Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients. Labor force participation is also has been nudged lower by big waves of retiring baby boomers. Average monthly job growth has slowed from a sturdy 168,000 in 2024 to about 125,000 this year. Employers frustrated by labor shortages during the pandemic have been reluctant to lay off lots of workers, limiting the drop-off. But hiring has fallen below pre-COVID-19 levels. A post-pandemic burst of catch-up hiring has faded and uncertainty about tariffs has led many businesses to wait for the effects of the duties on inflation and consumer spending before adding more staffers. Trump's 90-day pause on the high-double-digit duties he slapped on dozens of countries is set to expire July 9. In May, the U.S. agreed to slash levies on Chinese imports from 145% to a still-elevated 30%. And a base 10% tariff remains in effect on most imports, along with a 50% tax on steel and aluminum shipments and a 25% levy on imported cars and many goods from Canada and Mexico. Other administration policies are also starting to weigh on job growth. Goldman Sachs estimated the federal government lost 15,000 jobs last month, though Oxford Economic figured the losses were offset by state and local government gains. All told, more than 260,000 federal workers have been fired, taken buyouts or retired early this year. The monthly jobs reports have tallied just 59,000 losses so far because many employees are on administrative leave pending court challenges, according to Capital Economics. Besides cracking down on Southern border crossings, the administration has canceled or declined to renew work permits for hundreds of thousands of migrants, EY-Parthenon estimates. In May, federal officials ended so-called Temporary Protected Status for 350,000 Venezuelan migrants, Goldman Sachs said in research note. Although the move is being challenged in court, Goldman estimates many employers became reluctant to employ the immigrants or placed them on leave, reducing June job growth by about 25,000. At the same time, to reduce the chances of being deported, fewer immigrants who lack permanent legal status are searching for work, Morgan Stanley said. ADP, a payroll processor, estimated Wednesday the private sector shed 33,000 jobs in June, the first job losses it has reported in more than two years. 'We expect the unemployment rate to edge higher in the second-half of 2025 as the labor market softens in response to slower growth, with the full force of tariffs working through the economy,' Vanden Houten said. Barclays expects average monthly job gains to slow to about 75,000 by the fourth quarter. But economists say the hiring pullback will likely be roughly matched by a more slowly growing labor supply due to the immigration crackdown, keeping the unemployment rate from rising sharply. Contributing: Reuters This story has been updated with new information. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: June jobs report data shows 147K jobs added; unemployment dips
Bloomberg
07-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Single Best Idea: Bostjancic & Calvasina
Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Kathy Bostjancic & Lori Calvasina. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube:
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Economy to slow, inflation to persist above Fed 2% goal: NABE survey
This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. The U.S. economy, jarred by the highest tariffs since the 1930s, will likely slow to 1.3% growth this year as inflation persists above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the National Association for Business Economics said Monday, citing a survey of forecasters. Almost four-out-of-five economists (78%) consider import duties the biggest risk to the economy during the next 12 months, followed by 7% who deem geopolitical conflicts as the top risk, NABE said. Nearly half of panelists (49%) expect tariffs to push up inflation this year by between 0.5 and 0.99 percentage point, while 15% see an increase between 1 point and 2 points. 'Most of the panelists look for sluggish economic growth and elevated inflation to persist, at least for this year, and for inflation even to remain a little bit above target next year,' Nationwide Mutual Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic said during an NABE webcast. The impact on oil prices from war between Iran and Israel also threatens to bring about below-trend economic growth and rising price pressures, or 'stagflation,' according to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. A sustained $10 increase in oil prices would stoke inflation by 0.4% and erode gross domestic product by 0.4%, Sløk said in a client note Saturday, citing a Fed model. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged to $77.68 on Thursday during the outbreak of Iran-Israel hostilities before declining to $71.26 on Monday. 'Higher oil prices exacerbate the ongoing stagflation shock stemming from tariffs and immigration restrictions,' Sløk said, referring to how plans by President Donald Trump to deport undocumented workers would reduce the labor supply. Higher long-term interest rates and the resumption of student loan payments also pose headwinds to GDP growth but, along with tariffs and more expensive oil, will probably not cause a recession, Sløk said in a note Monday. Economists downgraded their median forecast for economic growth to 1.3% this year from 1.9% prior to Trump's April 2 announcement of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners, according to NABE. 'Downgrades to consumer spending, residential investment, government consumption expenditures and a larger trade deficit (net exports) drove the downward revision of the median forecasts,' NABE said. The economists' projection is gloomier than recent estimates by the World Bank and OECD, which forecast U.S. GDP growth this year of 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. 'The rise in trade barriers, heightened uncertainty and the spike in financial market volatility are set to weigh on private consumption, international trade and investment,' the World Bank said in a June 10 report. The personal consumption expenditures price index, minus volatile food and energy prices, will likely accelerate this year to 3.3% on a Q4-to-Q4 basis, a 0.5 percentage point increase compared with 2024, the association said, citing the median estimate of 42 economists. So-called core PCE is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. 'Higher inflation says the Fed should be hiking,' Sløk said. 'Lower GDP growth says the Fed should be cutting.' Fed officials on Tuesday will begin a two-day meeting to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Will policymakers 'put more weight on the upward pressure on inflation or more weight on the coming slowdown in growth?' Sløk said. Unemployment will likely average 4.3% this year and rise to 4.7% in 2026, the highest level since 2021, the NABE said. As the economy cools, the Fed will probably trim the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point this year from its current range between 4.25% and 4.5%, and by a half point next year, according to the NABE panel of economists. The quarter-point cuts will likely extend from the third quarter through Q2 next year, NABE said, citing the survey.
Malay Mail
12-06-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Trump tariffs stir US inflation concerns despite mild CPI
WASHINGTON, June 12 — US consumer inflation ticked up in May, in line with analyst expectations, government data showed yesterday as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs began to ripple through the world's biggest economy. The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 2.4 per cent from a year ago, after a 2.3 per cent reading in April, the Labour Department said, with headline figures cooled by energy prices. All eyes were on the data after Trump imposed a blanket 10 per cent levy on imports from almost all trading partners in early April. He also unveiled higher rates on dozens of economies including India and the European Union, although these have been suspended until early July. Trump engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation with China as well, with both sides temporarily lowering eye-wateringly-high levies on each other's products in May. Despite the wide-ranging duties, analysts said it will take months to gauge the impact of Trump's tariffs on consumer inflation. This is partly because businesses rushed to stockpile goods before the new tariffs kicked in — and they are now still working their way through existing inventory. 'As that inventory level gets worked down, we'll see a larger and larger pass-through of the tariffs,' Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told AFP. In a post on Truth Social after yesterday's data, Trump insisted that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates, arguing that the country 'would pay much less interest on debt coming due.' This, however, overlooked that lower interest rates usually increase consumer demand and stoke inflation. Between April and May, CPI was up 0.1 per cent, cooling from a 0.2 per cent increase from March to April. While housing prices climbed alongside food costs, energy prices edged down over the month, the report added. The energy index fell 1.0 per cent in May from a month ago, as the gasoline index declined over the month. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core CPI was up 2.8 per cent from a year ago, the Labor Department said. 'Early signs' 'Many Americans are enjoying cheaper gas prices this summer,' said Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long. 'But there are early signs of what is coming for Main Street: grocery store prices and appliance costs rose in May,' she added in a note. Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, estimates that retailers usually take at least three months to pass on cost increases to customers. He expects price increases for 'core goods' to gain momentum in June and peak in July, while remaining elevated for the rest of the year — assuming current tariff policies remain in place. Bostjancic said she did not expect the latest inflation report to significantly impact the US central bank's interest rate decision next week. 'The guidance remains that there's such a great degree of uncertainty of how the increased tariffs will affect prices and ultimately the economy,' she said. 'They need to wait and see, to see how this plays out over the coming months. And we should learn a lot more from the data through the summer and early fall,' she added. The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates after the Covid-19 pandemic as officials monitor progress in lowering inflation to their long-term 2 per cent goal sustainably. But Fed policymakers have been cautious in recent months as they monitor how the Trump administration's policies affect the economy. — AFP
France 24
11-06-2025
- Business
- France 24
US inflation edges up as Trump tariffs flow through economy
The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 2.4 percent from a year ago after a 2.3 percent reading in April, the Labor Department said, with headline figures cooled by energy prices. All eyes were on US inflation data after Trump imposed a blanket 10 percent levy on imports from almost all trading partners in early April. He also unveiled higher rates on dozens of economies including India and the European Union, although these have been suspended until early July. Trump also engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation with China, with both sides temporarily lowering high levies on each other's products in May. Despite the wide-ranging duties, analysts said it will take months to gauge the impact on consumer inflation. This is partly because businesses rushed to stockpile goods before Trump's new tariffs kicked in -- and they are now still working their way through existing inventory. "As that inventory level gets worked down, we'll see a larger and larger pass-through of the tariffs," Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told AFP. Between April and May, CPI was up 0.1 percent, cooling from a 0.2 percent increase from March to April. While housing prices climbed alongside food costs, energy prices edged down over the month, the report added. The energy index fell 1.0 percent in May from a month ago, as the gasoline index declined over the month. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core CPI was up 2.8 percent from a year ago, the Labor Department said. But Bostjancic said she did not expect the inflation report on Wednesday to significantly impact the US central bank's interest rate decision next week. "The guidance remains that there's such a great degree of uncertainty of how the increased tariffs will affect prices and ultimately the economy," she said. "They need to wait and see, to see how this plays out over the coming months. And we should learn a lot more from the data through the summer and early fall," she added. The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates after the Covid-19 pandemic as officials monitor their progress in lowering inflation sustainably. © 2025 AFP
