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Mint
17-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Gold-Silver ratio crashes nearly 20% from recent high. Will silver price outshine MCX gold rate this year?
The Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR), a key indicator used to measure the relative strength of silver to gold, has plunged nearly 20% in recent months — from a peak of 107 to around 88 currently — signalling a sharp outperformance of silver compared to gold. The drop in the ratio is driven by a contrasting trend in prices of the two precious metals. While MCX gold prices have declined nearly 2% in the past one month, silver prices have surged more than 7% over the same period. MCX silver price recently hit a record high of over ₹ 1,15,000 per kg. 'A steep fall in the Gold/Silver Ratio shows silver's significant outperformance, which usually hints at a broader shift in momentum toward risk-on behaviour in metals,' said Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Advisory. 'With abating uncertainties around US tariffs and geopolitical tensions easing, and with a favourable demand-supply outlook, silver is likely to continue outperforming gold this year.' According to Kedia, the GSR has broken down from its consolidation range of 90–91 on the charts, indicating further downside. He expects the ratio to drop towards 82.74 in the coming months. 'This implies that silver will continue to outperform gold in the near to medium term,' he said. Technically, resistance for the GSR is now seen at 90.42 and further up at 98.06, while the downside support lies at 82.74. Echoing a similar sentiment, Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, said the nearly 20% crash in the GSR is a strong signal of silver's catch-up move after a period of undervaluation. 'Silver is both a monetary and industrial metal. Its long-term prospects are boosted by the global green energy push, inflation narratives, and a shifting stance by central banks,' he said. On price outlook, Kedia said that silver faces resistance around the $40 per ounce level, but a breach above could lead it to $42 – $43 levels. For MCX silver, he has set a target of ₹ 1,30,000 per kg for 2025, provided prices sustain above ₹ 1,15,000. In the short term, however, silver prices could see a dip towards ₹ 1,06,000 – ₹ 1,02,000 — levels which he believes offer a good buying opportunity. Gold prices, on the other hand, may continue to remain under pressure. Kedia expects MCX gold rate to trend lower, ending the year around ₹ 91,000 – 92,000 per 10 grams. Jigar Trivedi expects silver prices to trade in the range of $38 – $44 per ounce over the next four to six months. On MCX, his near-term forecast pegs silver prices in the ₹ 1,20,000 – ₹ 1,25,000 range, with a bullish long-term outlook. As industrial demand for silver strengthens — particularly from sectors like solar, EVs, and electronics — the white metal appears well-placed to continue its rally, outperforming its yellow counterpart in the months ahead. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
01-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Gold price outperforms Silver and Sensex in H1CY25; Silver may take the lead in H2
Gold prices witnessed a robust rally in the first half of calendar year 2025 (H1CY25), driven by strong safe-haven demand and a combination of supportive macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The yellow metal outperformed most asset classes during the period, including silver and Indian equity benchmarks. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices surged 26.5% during H1CY25, outpacing the 23% rally in silver prices. In contrast, India's key equity indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — posted relatively modest gains of 7.2% and 8.1%, respectively, during the same period. According to analysts, several key factors — such as geopolitical tensions, expectations around US interest rates, and currency fluctuations — have already been priced into the market and reflected in gold's sharp price gains. Heading into the second half of the year (H2CY25), analysts expect the gold rally to moderate, while silver could potentially emerge as a stronger performer. 'Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding US trade tariffs are diminishing, and expectations now point to either delayed or less aggressive interest rate cuts. The US dollar index, after a steep decline, also appears to be stabilising. These developments could temper the rally in gold prices,' said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory. Kedia highlighted the falling gold-silver ratio (GSR) — from a recent high of 107 to 91 — as a signal of silver's potential to outperform gold. 'A continued decline in the gold-silver ratio, coupled with easing trade tensions between the US and China, is favourable for silver prices,' he noted. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, expects gold prices to remain elevated in H2CY25 due to lingering geopolitical concerns but cautions about potential pullbacks if global growth recovers. 'MCX gold prices may continue to strengthen into Q3CY25, with key support likely above ₹ 1.05 lakh per 10 grams. Silver, on the other hand, looks poised for further gains, supported by industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles (EVs), along with strong safe-haven flows and technical indicators,' Trivedi said. He added that bullish triggers for gold include renewed geopolitical flare-ups and sustained central bank buying. However, a global economic rebound, delayed rate cuts, or weakening demand could pose downside risks. Silver is expected to benefit from rising industrial usage and supply constraints, while potential headwinds include profit booking, a stronger dollar, and a slowing economy. Trivedi recommends a balanced investment approach: 'Gold provides portfolio stability and acts as an insurance during times of crisis, while silver offers higher upside potential — albeit with greater volatility.' For H2CY25, MCX gold prices are expected to find support around the ₹ 92,000 level, while COMEX gold may see support near $3,150 per ounce. Support for MCX silver is projected at ₹ 95,000 per kilogram, with COMEX silver likely to find support around $32.80 per ounce, according to Jigar Trivedi. Ajay Kedia noted that COMEX gold prices could find support in the range of $3,080 to $3,100 per ounce, with resistance anticipated between $3,500 and $3,640. He added that if COMEX silver breaches the $37 mark, it could potentially test $40, while key support is placed at $32.50 per ounce. In the domestic market, Kedia expects MCX gold price to have support at ₹ 91,500, with resistance at ₹ 1,02,400. A breakout above this level could push prices towards ₹ 1,08,000. For silver, support is seen in the ₹ 97,450 to ₹ 1,01,000 range, while resistance is expected between ₹ 1,12,000 and ₹ 1,30,000 during H2CY25. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
News18
19-06-2025
- Business
- News18
Gold May See 10% Correction In 2 Months And 30% Fall In A Year, Say Experts
Last Updated: Gold prices are not changing despite escalations in Middle East; experts say its rates are likely to have peaked out and may fall from $3,400 to $2,400 in a year if tensions ease. Gold Rate Prediction 2025: After rising nearly 30% this year, gold prices are not changing despite escalations in the Middle East tensions. According to experts, the yellow metal is likely to have peaked out and might see a correction of about 10% in the next one-two months and around 30% in the next one year. Backing up their projections, experts say the bullion markets have already factored in geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, and de-dollarisation. Citibank has revised downwards its gold price target for the next one year. According to its report, Citi has cut its gold rate expectation for the next three months from $3,500 per ounce to $3,300, and for the next 6-12 months to $2,800 as against $3,000 an ounce earlier. Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory told CNBC Awaaz, 'In the past 10-20 years, we not seen a situation where simulteneous wars are happening in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea, and still the geopolitical situation is escalating. In seven days of the ongoing Israel-Iran war, gold surged on the first day. But, after that, though tensions have escalated, gold is not reacting. It shows this factor has matured." He, however, said it has been noticed in the past that during such escalations, gold takes a stepback and then makes a recovery. 'For that, gold needs to rise above the $3,500 level in the international market." Currently, spot gold stands at $3,371.15 an ounce in the international market. 'However, whatever story we have heared in the past five years — geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, de-dollarisation; the bullion market has already factored in," he said. 'So, in the next one-two months, gold might see a correction of 8-10% easily. Gold may fall to $2,700-2,800 in the next one year. It might even fall to $2,400 if global tensions ease significantly," Kedia added. The $2,400 is more than 30% down as compared to the current gold price levels. Discussing the impact of higher gold prices on retail market, Shreyansh Kapoor of Kashi Jewellers said rising gold prices are not good sign for the retail market. 'In such a situation, people start selling their old jewellery to take profits. Higher prices also affect wedding budgets." He, however, said it is a good opportunity for those who want to make short-term gains. 'I have never seen so many people coming and selling gold. In my 25 years of experience, I have never seen that so many people are taking out their old jewellery to encash it. Earlier, 5-7% people used to come to sell back their old jewelleries. Now, it is 25%. It includes both exchanging and encashing," Kapoor said. Recently, brokerage house Quant Mutual Fund in its 'Factsheet for June 2025' also said gold has peaked out and might correct by 12-15% in the next two months. 'Gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive, and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals," Quant Mutual Fund stated. Gold prices have increased nearly 30% to $3,355 an ounce this calendar year. It had stood at nearly $2,600 as of January 1, 2025. The rates have increased due to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Investor sentiment turned defensive on the back of US President Donald Trump's tariff decisions, rekindling trade war concerns with China. Escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict further strengthened the safe-haven demand.
Mint
30-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Akshaya Tritiya 2025: Gold prices rise over 100% in five years. Is it the right time to buy gold or silver?
Gold prices traded lower on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) Wednesday, tracking a decline in interest bullion prices, pressurised by a firmer US dollar and easing global trade tensions. MCX gold rate fell by over ₹ 500 on Akshaya Tritiya and was trading near ₹ 95,000 per 10 grams level. As Indians celebrate Akshaya Tritiya on April 30, 2025 — a festival synonymous with prosperity and auspicious beginnings — the glitter of gold once again takes centre stage. But for investors, this year's question isn't just about tradition: Is gold still a good investment, or has silver stolen the spotlight? According to data from Kedia Advisory, gold has delivered an impressive CAGR of over 14.85% in the past five years, with prices rising from ₹ 47,677 per 10 grams in April 2020 to ₹ 95,592 in April 2025 — a jump of more than 100%. The latest annual return stands at 31.44%, highlighting the yellow metal's resilience amid global uncertainty. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, points out that gold price rally — 13% in 2023, 27% in 2024, and already 26% in 2025 — has been driven by a cocktail of macroeconomic factors. These include a weakening US dollar, geopolitical risks, safe-haven buying, and central bank accumulation. However, Trivedi warns that the key tailwinds behind this rally are beginning to fade, suggesting a possible period of consolidation ahead. Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory, shares a similar cautionary tone. 'Gold has delivered an impressive return of about 32% since the last Akshaya Tritiya. However, for the year ahead, it is advisable to buy gold only for ceremonial purposes and not with an investment motive, as returns are expected to moderate around 6–7%, in line with inflation,' Kedia said. Kedia attributes this expected gold price cool-off to easing geopolitical tensions — notably between Russia-Ukraine and Iran-US — as well as a shift in trade policies from confrontation to resolution. As a result, Kedia forecasts MCX gold rates could retrace towards ₹ 86,000 – ₹ 87,000 levels. While gold has been on a tear, silver is now emerging as a strong contender for investor attention. From Akshaya Tritiya 2024 to Akshaya Tritiya 2025, silver prices have surged 15.62%, and the five-year CAGR from April 2020 is equally impressive at nearly 20%, thanks to a bumper year in 2021 when prices spiked 69.04%. Ajay Kedia believes silver holds stronger upside potential, driven by robust industrial demand — especially from sectors like solar energy, electronics, and green technologies. 'Buy gold for shubhlabh (auspiciousness), but buy silver for returns,' he advises. Jigar Trivedi echoes this sentiment, citing the gold-silver ratio crossing 100 — well above the historical average of 70 — as a clear sign that silver is significantly undervalued. 'This level implies that either silver is significantly undervalued or that gold has become overvalued. Given the scale of gold's recent appreciation and the potential for increased volatility, a pullback in gold prices or a sharp move higher in silver prices could occur. Our base case is that silver will remain steady or gain further while gold sees some consolidation. In this context, silver offers a more attractive entry point and relative value opportunity,' Trivedi said. Despite expectations of cooling, gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation remains intact. Dr. Sagnik Bagchi, Assistant Professor at the School of Business Management, says, 'Akṣaya Tritiya symbolizes the idea of something that never diminishes, and gold fits that philosophy. It remains a reliable and stable asset, particularly for risk-averse investors.' Bagchi adds that a weakening rupee, accommodative monetary policies, and ongoing global disruptions continue to bolster gold's long-term appeal. If you're buying gold for tradition and emotional value, this Akshaya Tritiya is as good a time as any. However, if you're looking purely from an investment perspective, experts suggest silver may offer better upside in the short to medium term. Metric Gold Silver 1-Year Return (2024–25) 31.44% 15.62% 5-Year CAGR ~14.85% ~20% Expert Outlook Consolidation expected; moderate 6–7% return Likely to outperform; 30% upside possible Ideal Use Safe-haven, traditional purchase Industrial demand, value investment In conclusion, gold continues to offer stability, but silver may be the better bet for those seeking growth. As always, balance is key — diversify wisely and invest with clarity of purpose. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions. First Published: 30 Apr 2025, 01:07 PM IST
