Latest news with #KeisukeSadamori
Zawya
4 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Global coal demand to remain on a plateau in 2025, 2026: IEA
PARIS: Global coal demand is likely to remain broadly unchanged this year and next, despite short-term fluctuations across several major markets in the first half of 2025, according to the IEA's latest update on the sector released today. The Coal Mid-Year Update shows that global coal demand increased to a new all-time high in 2024 of around 8.8 billion tonnes, up 1.5% from 2023, as rising consumption in China, India, Indonesia and other emerging economies more than offset declines in advanced economies in Europe, North America and northeast Asia. However, several of those trends reversed in the first half of 2025 as demand declined in China and India due to weaker growth in electricity consumption and strong increases in power generation from renewable sources. By contrast, coal use grew by around 10% in the United States as robust growth in electricity demand combined with higher natural gas prices drove up coal consumption for power generation. In the European Union, coal demand was broadly flat, with lower consumption by industry offsetting higher demand from electricity generation. Despite these short-term variations, the report notes that the underlying structural drivers of the world's coal use remain broadly unchanged. As a result, it forecasts a slight increase in global coal demand in 2025, followed by a marginal decline in 2026, bringing demand to just below 2024 levels. This remains consistent with the forecast published in December in Coal 2024, the IEA's annual coal market report, with the main changes of note since then including downward revisions for global economic growth and the important energy policy shift in favour of coal in the United States. Over the whole of 2025, coal demand in China is expected to decline slightly, by less than 1%. In the United States, demand is forecast to grow by around 7%, and in the European Union, it is set to decrease by nearly 2%. 'While we have seen contrasting trends in different regions in the first half of 2025, these do not alter the underlying trajectory of global coal demand,' said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori. 'We expect the world's coal consumption to remain broadly flat this year and next, in line with our previous forecast, although short-term fluctuations remain possible in different regions due to weather conditions and the high degree of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. As in past years, global coal trends continue to be shaped overwhelmingly by China, which consumes almost 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined.' The power sector remains the dominant source of coal demand in China and globally. But industrial use of coal in China, particularly in steel and chemicals, is also large enough to influence global trends. Global coal production is expected to rise to a new record in 2025, driven by continued output growth in China and India, which rely on coal for ensuring their energy security priorities. However, the report anticipates a decline in global coal production in 2026, as high stock levels and lower prices begin to weigh on supply. Coal trade volumes, which rose steadily in recent years, are projected to contract in 2025 for the first time since the 2020 Covid-related downturn. This decline is expected to continue into 2026, which would mark the first consecutive two-year drop in global coal trade volumes this century, according to IEA data.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Global coal demand hits record 8.8 bn tonnes in 2024, to remain flat through 2026: IEA
New Delhi: Global coal demand reached a record high of 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, up 1.5% from 2023, driven by rising consumption in China, India, Indonesia, and other emerging economies, the International Energy Agency ( IEA ) said in its Coal Market Mid-Year Update released on Thursday. The increase in 2024 came despite declines in advanced economies in Europe, North America and northeast Asia. However, the IEA said the global coal demand is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2025 and 2026. 'While we have seen contrasting trends in different regions in the first half of 2025, these do not alter the underlying trajectory of global coal demand,' said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. 'We expect the world's coal consumption to remain broadly flat this year and next, in line with our previous forecast, although short-term fluctuations remain possible in different regions due to weather conditions and the high degree of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.' China, India see H1 decline; US coal use rises In the first half of 2025, coal demand declined in China and India due to lower growth in electricity demand and a sharp rise in renewable power generation . In contrast, coal consumption rose by around 10% in the United States, where strong electricity demand and higher natural gas prices led to increased coal-based power generation. In the European Union, coal use remained broadly stable, with reduced industrial demand offset by higher use for power generation. For the full year 2025, coal demand in China is expected to fall slightly—by less than 1%. In the United States, it is projected to rise by around 7%, while the EU is expected to see a decline of nearly 2%. Production to rise in 2025, trade volumes to fall Global coal production is projected to increase to a new record in 2025, led by output gains in China and India as both countries continue to prioritise energy security. However, coal production is expected to fall in 2026 due to high stock levels and declining prices. Coal trade volumes , which had been growing in recent years, are forecast to shrink in 2025 for the first time since the Covid-19-driven downturn of 2020. The contraction is expected to extend into 2026, marking the first two-year decline in global coal trade volumes this century. Indonesia is expected to register the largest fall in output by volume in 2025. Meanwhile, Russian coal exporters are likely to face the most significant economic strain due to falling prices and current market conditions. The IEA report said that while coal prices have dropped to levels last seen in early 2021, economic pressure on producers remains high amid persistent oversupply. China remains key driver of global trends The IEA said China continues to shape global coal trends more than any other country, consuming almost 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined. Coal use in China spans both power generation and industrial sectors such as steel and chemicals. 'The power sector remains the dominant source of coal demand in China and globally. But industrial use of coal in China is also large enough to influence global trends,' the report said.
Arab News
7 days ago
- Business
- Arab News
Middle East gas demand expected to rise by 3.5% in 2026: IEA
RIYADH: The combined gas demand in the Middle East and Africa region is expected to rise by 2 percent in 2025 before accelerating to 3.5 percent in 2026, driven by higher use in the industry and power sector, an analysis showed. In its latest report, the International Energy Agency projected that global gas consumption is projected to reach an all-time high in 2026, with demand growth accelerating to around 2 percent, up from the expected 1.3 percent expansion in 2025. In April, a report by the World Bank echoed similar views, stating that global gas consumption is expected to be moderate in 2025, before rebounding in 2026, due to high demand in markets such as the Asia Pacific and the Middle East. Commenting on the recent report, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said: 'The backdrop for global gas markets is shifting as we enter the second half of this year and look toward 2026. The wave of LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply that is set to come online is poised to ease fundamentals and spur additional demand, especially in Asia.' Sadamori added that the IEA's latest projection on gas demand and consumption is subject to unusually high levels of uncertainty over the global macroeconomic outlook and the volatile geopolitical environment. Natural gas is a significant source of energy for power generation, industrial processes, and heating. It is widely considered a cleaner-burning fuel than coal or oil as the world continues its energy transition journey. The IEA further stated that Asia's gas demand is expected to rise by more than 4 percent in 2026, accounting for around half of the global gas demand growth. In North America, natural gas demand is expected to increase by less than 1 percent next year, primarily supported by the power sector. The report, however, noted that gas demand in Europe is projected to decline by 2 percent next year, amid strong renewable energy output. With global gas consumption expected to reach an all-time high in 2026, usage by industry and the energy sector is forecast to contribute around half of the incremental demand. Gas-to-power demand is projected to account for 30 percent of the total demand growth in 2026, while gas use in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase by around 1 percent, assuming average weather conditions prevail. Stable Middle East and energy security According to the latest IEA report, stable geopolitical conditions in the Middle East region are critical to ensure global energy security. 'The conflict between Israel and Iran highlighted the energy interdependencies within the Middle East and the region's crucial role in global oil, natural gas and fertilizer supply security,' said the energy agency. It added: 'The Middle East accounts for 30 percent of global oil and 18 percent of global gas production, almost 25 percent of LNG supplies and around one-third of global urea exports.' According to the study, the crisis in the Middle East region put intense upward pressure on prices, with the Israel-Iran conflict fueling strong price volatility across commodity markets. In the cases of natural gas and urea, higher prices were also supported by actual disruptions to production and physical trade flows. Due to rising security concerns, Israel shut natural gas production at the Leviathan and Karish fields between June 13 and 15 and halted piped gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, which in turn led to the curtailment of fertilizer production. In Iran, attacks damaged a platform at South Pars Phase 14, reducing output by around 12 million cubic meters per day. Production in gas fields and trade flows in the Middle East region were gradually restored following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. 'The initial increase in prices was largely driven by the fear that an escalation of the conflict could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil and LNG chokepoint, which is located between Iran and Oman,' said IEA. Earlier this month, a report released by Rystad Energy, a research and analysis firm, stated that the Middle East region is on track to surpass Asia and become the world's second-largest gas producer by 2025, ranking only behind North America. According to the analysis, gas production in the Middle East has increased by around 15 percent since 2020, and future growth underscores the determination of regional producers to monetize their gas reserves and develop export potential to meet global demand. The analysis added that Iran currently leads the Middle East in gas production, with about 25 billion cubic feet per day, followed by Qatar at 16 bcfd and Saudi Arabia at eight bcfd. LNG supply According to the latest IEA report, global LNG supply in 2026 is projected to rise by 7 percent or 40 billion cubic meters, as new projects are expected to come online in countries including Qatar and the US. Qatar plans to expand its LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 110 mtpa by 2026 and 126 mtpa by 2027, ultimately reaching 142 mtpa by 2030. In March, global credit rating agency Fitch said that state-owned Qatar Energy's North Field projects will support both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon growth from 2025 to 2030. North Field, which holds nearly 10 percent of the world's known LNG reserves, lies off the northeast shore of the Qatar peninsula, covering more than 6,000 sq. km — roughly half the country's land area. For the whole of 2025, global LNG supply is expected to increase by 5.5 percent or 30 bcm, primarily supported by the ramp-ups of major new LNG projects in North America. These projects in North America include the Plaquemines LNG project and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion, as well as LNG Canada.
The Guardian
14-02-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
EVs and datacentres driving new global ‘age of electricity', says watchdog
The world's electricity use will grow every year by more than the amount consumed annually by Japan because of a surge in electric transport, air conditioning and datacentres, according to the world's energy watchdog. The International Energy Agency has raised its predictions for the world's rising demand for electricity, pegging the growth at almost 4% a year until 2027, up from its previous forecast of 3.4% year. The influential Paris-based agency said the 'new age of electricity' was dawning as a result of the climate crisis as more people begin to use air conditioning to cope with extreme temperature rises and economies begin to turn away from using fossil fuels in favour of cleaner power. More governments are taking steps to rely on electricity for transport and heating systems as well as heavy industry, according to the report, and there is also expected to be a rapid expansion of energy-hungry datacentres used to train artificial intelligence (AI). The forecasts are likely to stoke fears that the race to build more datacentres to support the boom in AI could become a drain on energy supplies, causing costs to rocket and stalling efforts to cut fossil fuels from power generation. The race to consume more electricity will be led by China, where demand grew by 7% last year, and could grow by 6% a year over the next three years, in part due to a boom in its manufacturing of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. Rising demand in the US is expected to add the equivalent of California's current power consumption to the national total by 2027. In the European Union, growth is forecast to be more modest, returning to its 2021 levels by 2027, after a crash in demand over recent years triggered by surging costs during the energy crisis. Keisuke Sadamori, a director at the IEA, said: 'The acceleration of global electricity demand highlights the significant changes taking place in energy systems around the world and the approach of a new age of electricity. But it also presents evolving challenges for governments in ensuring a secure, affordable and sustainable electricity supply.' Dave Jones, a director at global energy thinktank Ember, said that although the world's growing stock of clean energy projects would keep pace with the faster than expected growth in electricity use, it would not rise fast enough to displace the existing fossil fuel electricity used today. 'More investment in clean electricity is needed, otherwise coal and gas generation could be at the same record levels in 2027 as they were in 2024,' Jones said. 'The age of electricity has to be the age of clean electricity to realise the cost, security and climate benefits of electrification.'
Yahoo
12-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The End of Coal Is Nowhere In Sight
Developed economies have been reducing their use of coal in recent years, but the world isn't ready to kick its coal addiction, not yet. Developing markets in Asia are boosting their coal-fired power generation to meet surging electricity demand. Despite continued retirements of coal-fired power in the U.S., lower coal demand in Europe, and the end of the 142-year coal electricity in the UK, global coal demand hit another record high last year. And consumption is set to remain at these high levels—or even hit new all-time highs—for a few more years. Emerging Asian economies, led by China and India, have been sustaining global coal demand growth this decade. They plan additional coal-fired capacity to support their respective renewables booms with 24/7 baseload power and avoid power crunches or blackouts like the ones they suffered in the early operating coal power capacity has increased by 13% since 2015, data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) shows. Since 2015, when the countries reached a deal on the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world has added 259 GW of operating coal power capacity. As of the end of 2024, total operating coal power capacity hit a record high of 2,175 gigawatts (GW), while another 611 GW of capacity was under development, according to GEM's Global Coal Plant Tracker. Global coal demand surged to another record high in 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in December, expecting the world's coal consumption to level off through 2027. The previous record was from a year earlier. In 2023, demand hit the then-record, and the IEA then predicted flat consumption in 2024. They were wrong—demand increased last year, their own analysis showed. Despite forecasts of plateauing, global coal consumption could continue to rise this year and the next few years, too, depending on how China's economy and energy security policies evolve in the coming months.A plateau in global coal demand will largely depend on China, the IEA noted in December. 'Weather factors – particularly in China, the world's largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,' said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori. Electricity demand globally is set to jump in the coming years with AI advancements and data center investments. Growth in power demand in 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be among the highest levels in the past two decades, the IEA said in the middle of 2024. The surge in electricity consumption could slow coal retirements in developed economies and further raise coal demand in emerging markets in Asia, especially if the growth in renewable energy capacity is not enough to meet the rise in power solar power will continue to drive the growth of U.S. power generation over the next two years, coal power output will remain unchanged at around 640 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2025 and 2026, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last month. America's coal electricity generation was 647 billion kWh in 2024. U.S. coal retirements are set to accelerate this year, removing 6%, or 11 GW, of coal-generating capacity from the U.S. electricity sector. Another 2%, or 4 GW, of coal capacity would be removed in 2026, the EIA forecasts. Last year, coal retirements represented about 3 GW of electric power capacity removed from the power system, which was the lowest annual amount of coal capacity retired since 2011. Across the Atlantic, last year saw a monumental moment in Britain's electricity system with the switching-off of the last remaining coal power plant in the country. The plant at Ratcliffe-on-Soar was shut at the end of September, ending 142 years of coal-fired electricity generation in the UK and making Britain the first G7 country to phase out coal. In the European Union, solar power overtook coal generation in 2024, with solar accounting for 11% of EU electricity and coal falling below 10% for the first time ever, data from clean energy think tank Ember showed. But in China and India, the world's biggest and second-biggest coal users, respectively, coal is still king despite the surge in renewable power installations. China's thermal power generation, which is overwhelmingly dominated by coal, rose by 1.5% in 2024 from a year earlier to a record high of 6.34 trillion kWh, as coal consumption in the electricity sector continues to grow, and so are China's production and imports. This year, China's coal demand and production are expected to continue rising, and the fuel is set to remain the backbone of the country's energy system, according to China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association. In India, coal use is also rising -- demand increased in 2024 by more than 5% to hit 1.3 billion tons—a level that only China has reached previously, per IEA data. India has reduced coal imports, but that's only because it aims to hike domestic output to source more coal at home. With industry expected to expand and power demand to soar, India is set to use more of its lower-quality domestic coal to meet its consumption needs. By Tsvetana Paraskova for More Top Reads From this article on
