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Hamilton Spectator
25-06-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
S&P Global revises oilsands outlook upward despite crude market volatility
CALGARY - S&P Global Commodity Insights says oilsands output is forecast to rise by half a million barrels from last year's levels by the end of the decade. That would mark a three per cent increase from S&P's previous 10-year outlook for the sector and would be the fourth upward revision in a row. Chief Canadian oil analyst Kevin Birn says the change in trajectory, even during volatile times, reflects how producers are working to improve efficiency from existing operations. Oilsands production is expected to hit a record 3.5 million barrels per day this year — five per cent higher than last year. S&P forecasts output will exceed 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030, but plateau around 3.7 million barrels in 2035. Director of crude oil markets Celina Hwang says the outlook could be dampened by export pipeline constraints, but oilsands operators have proven they can withstand such volatility. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 24, 2025.
Time of India
24-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Alberta oil production creates new record in 2025, raises alarm over emissions and climate impact
Alberta's oilsands are set to hit record-breaking production levels this year, reaching an average of 3.5 million barrels per day, according to a new forecast by S&P Global Commodity Insights. That marks a five per cent increase from 2024 and could rise to 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030. However, as production booms, greenhouse gas emissions are also rising, fueling concerns from environmental groups and communities already struggling with the impacts of climate change . Reason for the record oil production by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Play War Thunder now for free War Thunder Play Now Undo The rise in oil output isn't being driven by new megaprojects, but instead by quiet, incremental changes like debottlenecking, upgrades to equipment, and other optimizations at existing facilities. 'The increased trajectory for Canadian oilsands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization and the favourable economics that underpin such operations,' said Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil analyst at S&P Global, in a statement. Live Events Birn noted that producers are finding ways to cut downtime and increase efficiency, drawing from Alberta's massive oil reserves. In communities like Fort McMurray, oil means employment and stability. But many workers are conflicted. Indeed, Alberta's wildfires have grown more intense and frequent. Scientists and activists link them directly to rising greenhouse gas emissions, many of which are tied to the oilsands. 'We can't lose sight of the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands are also hitting record levels,' said Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada . 'The consequences are all around us in the climate change-fueled wildfires, heatwaves, and extreme weather that are disrupting lives and the economy.' He added, 'This is why the federal government needs to implement its long-promised cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector.' A volatile market This year, North American oil prices have fluctuated wildly, briefly hitting $75 per barrel before dropping below $60. The swings are driven largely by geopolitical tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. Even so, the oilsands remain profitable, thanks to low break-even costs. The recent launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, which began operating in 2024, has helped boost Canada's export capacity, further supporting production increases. Still, questions remain about how long the growth can last. S&P Global expects oilsands production to plateau later this decade, as physical, economic, and environmental constraints set in. Meanwhile, Alberta's decision this month to eliminate its gas flaring limit, after exceeding it for two years in a row, has raised alarms among climate scientists. Methane emissions from oilsands tailings ponds are also under renewed scrutiny, with new studies showing they may be far higher than previously estimated. As oil production in Alberta climbs, so too does the pressure for a federal emissions cap, stricter methane regulations, and a clearer path forward.
24-06-2025
- Business
Alberta's oilsands to hit record production high in 2025
Another year, another record for Alberta's oil industry. Oilsands production is on pace to reach an all-time high this year as production in northern Alberta is expected to grow by five per cent in 2025 compared to last year. The latest forecast released Wednesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates average annual production of 3.5 million barrels per day this year. By 2030, production could reach 3.9 million barrels per day. The increase in output from the oilsands is not driven by any large new projects, but instead by smaller expansions and improvements to existing operations. The increased trajectory for Canadian oilsands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization — and the favourable economics that underpin such operations, said Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, in a statement. This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput, Birn said. Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada, noted that greenhouse gas emissions from Alberta's oilsands have also been rising, year after year. We can't lose sight of the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands are also hitting record levels because the consequences are all around us in the climate change-fuelled wildfires, heat waves and extreme weather that are disrupting lives and the economy, he said. This is why the federal government needs to implement its long-promised cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector. North American oil prices have been especially volatile so far this year, reaching highs of nearly $75 US per barrel twice, while also falling below $60 on several occasions. Oil markets have reacted to many geopolitical events including tariffs and conflict in the Middle East. The Trans Mountain expansion pipeline began operating last year, which has increased Canada's ability to export more oil. S&P's forecast still expects oilsands production to plateau later this decade. Kyle Bakx (new window) · CBC News
Global News
24-06-2025
- Business
- Global News
Oilsands output projected to hit new record this year: S&P Global
See more sharing options Send this page to someone via email Share this item on Twitter Share this item via WhatsApp Share this item on Facebook Oilsands output is forecast to hit a new record this year and add another half a million barrels a day from last year's levels by 2030 despite global crude price uncertainty, S&P Global Commodity Insights says in a new report. Production is expected to hit 3.5 million barrels per day this year and exceed 3.9 million barrels a day in five years, S&P said Tuesday. That would mark a three per cent increase from S&P's previous 10-year outlook for the sector and would be the fourth upward revision in a row. Output is expected to plateau later this decade and settle around 3.7 million barrels a day in 2035 — 100,000 barrels a day higher than S&P's earlier outlook. 'The increased trajectory for Canadian oilsands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization – and the favourable economics that underpin such operations,' chief Canadian oil analyst Kevin Birn said in a news release Tuesday. Story continues below advertisement Gone are the days of multibillion-dollar oilsands developments built from scratch. Birn said the growth is coming from making the most of existing operations by removing bottlenecks, decreasing downtime and increasing throughput. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Global crude prices surged well above US$70 a barrel almost two weeks ago, when the Israel-Iran conflict began, stoking supply fears. But on Tuesday, the August contract lost almost six per cent to trade below US$65 a barrel as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, though it was uncertain whether the fighting would indeed stop. Oilsands companies can handily withstand that lower price, S&P suggested, predicting an average break-even price of US$27 a barrel. That number is substantially lower than it was a decade ago. 'Many companies are likely to proceed with optimizations even in more challenging price environments because they often contribute to efficiency gains,' said Celina Hwang, S&P's director of crude oil markets. Story continues below advertisement 'This dynamic adds to the resiliency of oilsands production and its ability to grow through periods of price volatility.' Hwang added the outlook could be dampened by export pipeline constraints. The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline to the Vancouver area started up last year, and is the only meaningful way Canadian crude can flow to markets outside the United States. Though there has been a push for more such projects to be built, no private-sector player has pitched a plan. 'While a lower price path in 2025 and the potential for pipeline export constraints are downside risks to this outlook, the oilsands have proven able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past,' said Hwang. 'The low break-even costs for existing projects and producers' ability to manage challenging situations in the past support the resilience of this outlook.'
CTV News
24-06-2025
- Business
- CTV News
S&P Global revises oilsands outlook upward despite crude market volatility
Suncor's base plant with upgraders in the oilsands in Fort McMurray Alta, on Monday June 13, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson CALGARY — S&P Global Commodity Insights says oilsands output is forecast to rise by half a million barrels from last year's levels by the end of the decade. That would mark a three per cent increase from S&P's previous 10-year outlook for the sector and would be the fourth upward revision in a row. Chief Canadian oil analyst Kevin Birn says the change in trajectory, even during volatile times, reflects how producers are working to improve efficiency from existing operations. Oilsands production is expected to hit a record 3.5 million barrels per day this year — five per cent higher than last year. S&P forecasts output will exceed 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030, but plateau around 3.7 million barrels in 2035. Director of crude oil markets Celina Hwang says the outlook could be dampened by export pipeline constraints, but oilsands operators have proven they can withstand such volatility. --- Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 24, 2025.
