Latest news with #KevinGordon
Bloomberg
03-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US House Passage of Tax Bill
Bloomberg Television brings you the latest news and analysis leading up to the final minutes and seconds before and after the closing bell on Wall Street. Today's guests are Claudia Sahm New Century Advisors, Kevin Gordon Charles Schwab, Patrick De Haan Gasbuddy, Kathy Entwistle Morgan Stanley, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Debbie Dyson Oneten, Michael Balboni NY Former Director of Homeland Security, Brian Kelly The Points Guy, and Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary. (Source: Bloomberg)
Wall Street Journal
03-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
That Sound You Hear Is Rate-Cut Odds Collapsing: Reactions to the Jobs Report
Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said the jobs report will wash out expectations of an interest-rate cut this month—something that can be seen in CME Group data.
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
3 data points define the Fed's one big economic risk
The Federal Reserve's June meeting came and went with few surprises. As Citi's head of equity US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser wrote in a note to clients, it was a "Blah FOMC" for markets as stocks closed Wednesday's session nearly unchanged. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy But within the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) were details critical to understanding where the economic risks lie headed into the summer months as many economists believe tariffs will begin to have a larger impact on the economic data. Federal Reserve officials now see a combination of slower growth and higher inflation in 2025. Specifically, the central bank lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 1.7% while raising its outlook for "core" PCE inflation to 3.1% from 2.8%. The Fed also moved up its unemployment forecast slightly to 4.5% from 4.4%. In sum, these projections show one clear economic risk — stagflation — where economic growth stalls out and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target. Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon said the economic projections provided a "perfect snapshot" on why the Fed hasn't moved interest rates yet. There are risks to the upside for inflation, which would typically have the Fed favoring higher rates. And there are risks to the downside for growth and the possibility of further weakening in the labor market, which would typically have the Fed cutting interest rates. Now the key question is which way the data turns. Seven Fed officials penciled in no interest rate cuts this year, likely focusing on the potential rise in inflation. Eight officials penciled in two interest rate cuts, likely looking to support any potential weakening in the labor market as tariffs weigh on economic growth. While the "median" projection from June's "dot plot," which maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future, projected two interest rate cuts this year, there's clearly both significant debate and uncertainty within the central bank about which way the economy will shift next. And that debate is likely to define the economic narrative for the summer of 2025. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Margins will be 'biggest pressure point' for earnings this year
The Federal Reserve decided to hold rates steady and forecasts two rate cuts this year. Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon joins Market Domination to discuss what the next earnings cycle might look like and why margins will be a telling "pressure point" when it comes to gauging the labor market and corporate responses to tariffs and inflation. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. I do want to talk more about labor, but first, I want to ask you a little bit more about earnings because we've talked to certainly a lot of strategists who are very optimistic about where earnings are going to go from here, and they say, even if there is a tariff impact, not going to be huge, you still have the big secular tailwind of AI, etcetera. Um, what are you going to be watching most closely in these earnings reports thematically to see where there are maybe pressure points or lack thereof? I mean, the biggest pressure point is really what's happening with margins. You know, a couple years ago when we were going through the big inflation surge, a lot of the focus was on what do unit sales look like, how much of it is just price versus actual volume growing. This time, it's much more focused on on margin because you are in a more precarious part or or state with the labor market. Um, typically what companies do when you're faced with, you know, rising costs or lower revenue is you you look to get rid of your biggest cost which is labor. So any signs from a thematic standpoint that there is a bias towards cutting labor to save on that versus anything else, um, I think that's going to be an important thing to watch. And unfortunately, you know, even to date with with everything tariff related, there's not one consistent theme across the market. There's not even one consistent theme as to how companies are responding within sectors, even within consumer discretionary or consumer staples. You're seeing massive dispersion and how companies have responded to this, and how they were already positioned heading into this too.
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks are back near record highs. Investors still aren't buying this rally.
Stocks came under pressure Tuesday but continue to hover near record highs, staging a ferocious comeback since their April lows. But despite the rally, investor sentiment remains cautious as markets contend with a wave of uncertainty ranging from Trump's tariff rollout and its inflationary ripple effects to the Fed's murky rate-cutting path and, most recently, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Even as consumer sentiment has begun to rebound from its early-year lows, investor positioning tells a different story. Data from market research firms SentimenTrader, Ned Davis Research, and Vanda, cited by Charles Schwab, show that equity exposure remains below historical averages, with mutual funds, hedge funds, and retail traders slowly rebuilding their risk positions. That caution was echoed in Bank of America's latest Global Fund Manager Survey released Tuesday, which showed a sharp drop in risk appetite with a net 28% of investors taking a more-cautious-than-normal level of risk in their portfolios. The survey also revealed that equity allocations remain well below average, currently sitting one standard deviation below their long-term norm. However, that caution, some strategists argue, may be more of a tailwind than a headwind for stocks. "Sentiment can still be negative even with stocks back at all-time highs," Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance. Gordon described the recent rally as "definitely still hated," but a dynamic that's not unusual following sharp, unexpected sell-offs. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, wrote in a recent client note that investors may be overlooking a stronger investment backdrop compared to early 2025, with more clarity on trade and tax policy and a potentially more dovish Fed. "We're so close to all-time highs, and yet investors are mostly negative still," he said. "This remains one of the most-hated rallies." Strategists across Wall Street have also grown more bullish on stocks in recent weeks. No fewer than 11 Wall Street firms lowered their S&P 500 targets amid the market sell-off in April, but at least eight of those have since raised their bets on where the index ends 2025. The median S&P 500 target now sits at 6,100, signaling further upside potential. While investors are participating in the rebound, Schwab's Gordon said the gains have been concentrated in sectors outside of Big Tech, which has led the bull market over the past two years. He called out strength in commercial services like logistics and airlines, while more economically sensitive sectors like freight and goods production continue to lag. According to Gordon, that points to a more selective rally and could be a contrarian signal that stocks still have room to run. "The pain trade," he added, "is probably still supportive for the equity market to go a little bit higher." Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
