03-07-2025
'One event' arms pause will be little comfort to Ukraine – DW – 07/03/2025
The US says its surprise pause on arms shipments is a one-off. But amid the turbulent US-Ukraine relationship, the assurance will offer little comfort to Volodymyr Zelenskyy or his European supporters.
A US announcement this week that a batch of arms shipments to Ukraine would be paused is yet another reminder that the eastern European country's supply of advanced military equipment is not as secure as it once was.
That's despite the US downplaying its decision to withhold crucial arms shipments to Ukraine, where a state department spokesperson told reporters it was a one-off.
"This is not a cessation of us assisting Ukraine or of providing weapons," said spokeswoman Tammy Bruce. "This is one event and one situation and we'll discuss what else comes up in future."
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to speak with Donald Trump on Friday about the decision, however it comes amid difficult relations during the US leader's second term, stemming most notably from the globally broadcast falling out between the two leaders during a White House sitdown in early March.
Trump confirmed in a post on his social media platform that he will first speak with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Thursday.
Following the disastrous White House visit, Zelenskyy sought to shore up support closer to home with key European allies. Europe has since stepped up their support in financial and supply terms.
But if the US were to continue to withhold its support, it would significantly undermine Ukraine's position versus Russia.
"If this were to be a longer-term issue, it would definitely be a challenge for Ukraine to cope," Jana Kobzova, a senior policy fellow specializing at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.
"Partly because some of the US systems are not easily replaceable, that goes especially for air defense, but also some of the longer-range capabilities which Ukraine has started to produce domestically but not in the quantities needed."
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Among the American weapons due for shipping were Patriot air defense missiles and precision-guided artillery, according to officials speaking to newswires anonymously.
The pause on these shipments comes at a critical time, with Russia ramping up weapons production and attacks. Those include strikes on soldier draft hubs in Poltava, the national capital Kyiv and port city Odesa and ground advances in key regions in Eastern Ukraine.
Despite increased spending on defense from Europe's NATO members — now 5% of GDP following its June meeting — any long-term US stall on weapons will squeeze Ukraine and its neighbors.
"There is recognition at the political level … that we would need to be increasing production, but none of that happens quickly enough for Ukraine," said Kobzova.
Kobzova also pointed to investments being made into Ukraine's own defense industry to buffer against future supply line cuts from the US. Europe is now the biggest investor in Ukraine's domestic defense industry.
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But even that might not be enough. Marina Miron, a defense researcher specializing in military technology and Russian capability at Kings College London, UK, told DW.
She said despite the acrimony between Trump and Zelenskyy, the pause on shipments could be due to logistics, with the US potentially needing to weigh its own domestic supply needs against the support it gives to dozens of other countries, including Israel.
Experts interviewed by DW highlighted the offer made by Zelenskyy to directly purchase armaments from the US, but, in reality, arms manufacturing is a time-consuming process.
"It takes two years to produce one [air defense missile] battery," said Miron.
"So even if you buy them now, it doesn't mean that they will be on the battlefield. You place a purchase order and you get in the queue."
Finding a way to more effectively repair and adapt equipment for different missiles could be a potential stopgap to meet immediate needs. But, as defense supplies are again in doubt, Miron asked whether Ukraine has what it needs to push back Russia's offensive.
"The problem is time and money and we also have the variable of people," he said, adding that about 90 people are needed to operate a Patriot air missile battery.
And Ukraine, Miron points out, is losing people with no guarantee of replacement as the war grinds through its fourth year.
Ukraine's support in Europe has been increasing — both rhetorically and materially.
As it took over the presidency of the EU for the next six months, Denmark has taken the early opportunity to put Ukraine's membership application into the bloc back on the agenda.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Thursday said the EU "must strengthen Ukraine. And we must weaken Russia."
"Ukraine is essential to Europe's security. Our contribution to Ukraine is also a protection of our freedom. Ukraine belongs in the European Union. It is in both in Denmark's and Europe's interest."
That's on the back of a visit to Ukraine from German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, who branded Ukraine's plight Berlin's most important foreign policy task.
But the signals from the US suggest to the continent that its tarnsatlantic ally is not the steadfast partner it once was.
"There is a sober analysis both in Kyiv and the European part of NATO that relying on US military assistance to continue forever in Ukraine is not an option," said Kobzova. "And that has been there ever since March when the assistance was stopped for the first time."
That view is echoed by retired US Army Europe Commanding General Ben Hodges, who said the US decision to pause shipments was not about stockpiles.
"It's a choice of this Administration to placate Russia, at the expense of Ukraine," Hodges told DW. "It also shows the very limited understanding this administration [has] of the importance to America's strategic interests to help Ukraine and Europe deter Russia."
Miron's also takes a pessimistic view on the US-Ukraine ties, even with attempts to entice Trump back to the Ukrainian cause.
"Certainly you can try some diplomacy, and explain to Trump that Ukraine matters, but I think Trump has already made up his mind," he said. "Trump has much more to solve with Russia in terms of global problems than with Ukraine."
