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Indian Express
2 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Nitish Kumar has a succession problem. Is his son the answer?
Written by Mrityunjay Sharma A puzzle has engaged everyone in Bihar over the last few months: Whether Nishant, Nitish Kumar's son, will join politics. Ever since his first public appearance in January, appealing to the people to vote for his father, political circles have been abuzz. Media speculation has only intensified, with significant political figures from both within and outside the JD(U) pitching for Nishant to take up the reins of the party. The latest to join this chorus is Upendra Kushwaha, Nitish's old ally and currently the leader of an NDA constituent, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party. In a recent comment, Kushwaha urged Nitish to hand over the party's leadership to Nishant, warning that any delay may cause irreparable damage. While Kushwaha's statement may carry political undertones, what he said appears to reflect the JD(U)'s only viable option. In the ever-evolving landscape of Indian politics, dynastic succession is no longer a surprise; it is a pattern. Nishant, an engineering graduate from BIT Mesra, has consistently maintained his disinterest in politics and expressed a personal inclination toward spirituality. What also makes Nishant's case particularly intriguing is that for years, Nitish has positioned himself as a leader different from Bihar's family-driven political model. Unlike his contemporaries — Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav — who openly groomed their sons as successors, Nitish Kumar never gave any such indication. Yet, as age catches up, the absence of a clear successor has begun to haunt the JD (U), making a once-unthinkable family transition appear increasingly inevitable. In Indian politics, where legacy often triumphs over merit, dynastic succession is more of a norm than an anomaly. From the Nehru-Gandhi family in the Congress to the Yadavs of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the Thackerays of Maharashtra, the Badals of Punjab, and the DMK's dominance in Tamil Nadu, leadership succession through family ties is more of a survival strategy than a coincidence. The case of Nishant Kumar is merely another instance of this larger trend where smaller political parties, rather than fostering new leadership, pass on the reins within the family to ensure continuity. While some may argue that dynastic politics is more common in larger parties like the Congress, it is far more pronounced — and often necessary —for regional and smaller parties. Unlike national parties, which have the backing of a larger ideological structure and grassroots cadre, regional parties are often built around one strong leader. When such a leader ages or retires, the most obvious successor is someone from the family, seen as a natural inheritor of the party's legacy and vote base. While Nitish Kumar tried to groom several potential successors, all eventually fell out of favour. R C P Singh, once his closest aide, was sidelined due to his proximity to the BJP. Upendra Kushwaha, seen as an OBC leader from his kindred Koeri caste, clashed with Nitish and was ousted. Prashant Kishor, despite Nitish's fondness, was never fully embraced due to his independent streak. Some speculate Manish Verma, a new entrant from the bureaucracy, as a future leader, but the JD(U)'s history suggests that no one outside the Kumar surname will be able to match themselves up to Nitish. What the JD(U) is moving towards is a lesson learned from Indian politics: Parties without a clear family succession have struggled to survive. While Mulayam Singh Yadav's SP and Lalu Prasad's RJD continue to thrive after handing over power to their sons, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has struggled to pass on the baton to her nephew, Akash Anand in a bid to salvage her legacy. The late Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP offers another example. The original party split, and most of the party leaders went with Late Ram Vilas's brother, Pashupati Nath Paras, following a feud. However, the electorate still associates the LJP with Chirag Paswan, who has now reclaimed the party's legacy under a new political entity. Similarly, the BJD in Odisha faces uncertainty post-Naveen Patnaik era, with no clear family succession line. The trend is visible beyond the Hindi heartland as well. While DMK has been holding power in Tamil Nadu following a clear dynastic succession, the AIADMK has suffered in the absence of clear leadership post-Jayalalithaa. Unlike the BJP and Left parties, which have largely distanced themselves from dynastic politics and promoted second-rung leadership, regional and smaller parties often do not have the luxury of a strong ideological foundation. Their entire political existence is tied to the charisma of one leader. When that leader fades, keeping power within the family is often seen as the easiest way to ensure continuity. But this also raises critical concerns. Does dynastic succession hinder democratic party structures? Does it prevent the rise of talented grassroots leaders who are not part of the family? In many cases, the answer is yes. Regional parties rarely develop a robust second line of leadership, making it almost inevitable that leadership is passed within the family. Unlike the RJD or the SP, which have strong caste-based vote banks, the JD(U)'s voter base is fragmented, spread across voting blocs such as those of the EBCs and women voters. Nitish Kumar himself has relied on his good governance image and coalition politics rather than caste-based mobilisation. If Nishant Kumar does step into politics, he will have his task cut out. His success will hinge on whether he can craft an independent political identity or merely serve as a symbolic extension of his father's legacy. Complicating matters further, Nishant will face stiff competition from other political scions like Tejashwi Yadav and Chirag Paswan — both of whom have not only inherited political capital but also years of head-start in navigating Bihar's complex political terrain. While no confirmation has come yet, the speculation around Nishant Kumar suggests that even a party like the JD(U), which prided itself on governance and ideology, is finding it difficult to break free from dynastic patterns. This reflects a broader crisis in Indian politics, where family remains the strongest political capital, and where survival, more than ideology or governance, dictates leadership transitions. As long as political parties continue to be personal enterprises rather than institutional entities, the cycle of family-driven leadership will continue, no matter how much the electorate criticises it. The writer is a BJP Leader and author of Broken Promises: Caste, Crime and Politics in Bihar
Scroll.in
20-07-2025
- Politics
- Scroll.in
Caste divide, political polarisation, third alternative: Why the Bihar election is wide open
Legislative assembly elections in India are often fought and won on local issues. The overall national narrative, such as the national security rhetoric of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, can at best be an add-on to the prevailing regional issues. Bihar is no exception to this, and its polarised political landscape with a sharp caste divide makes it even more difficult to sway the voter's mood solely through issues like Operation Sindoor, India's military operation against Pakistan, which was launched to avenge a terrorist attack. Although the Bihar legislative election is due in October this year, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, as well as the Opposition parties, have already started positioning themselves for the polls. The significance of the Bihar assembly election can be gauged from the fact that both Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi have visited the state several times recently. Modi's choice of a public rally in Madhubani district in Bihar to announce his resolve to avenge the recent barbaric terrorist attack at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir carried symbolic significance. A recent poll survey conducted by C-Voter, however, suggests that Operation Sindoor is likely to have only a marginal impact on the mood of the electorate. Nonetheless, factors such as Modi's strong leadership and his stance on Pakistan will certainly play a role during the BJP's election campaign. Caste census impact The impact of free food distribution, LPG connections, and toilet construction for poor households often pushes Modi's leadership rating above that of his opponents. The Opposition's poll plank of demanding a caste census may not yield significant gains for any political party in Bihar. Modi's initial resistance and vacillation, followed by his sudden appropriation of the caste census plank, means that all the political parties in the state support a caste census. Both the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the central fulcrums of the two opposing alliances – the National Democratic Alliance and the Mahagathbandhan (the Opposition's grand alliance – were at the forefront of the campaign demanding a caste census. Hence, the credit gets evenly distributed. Coalition of the willing Bihar is the only north Indian state where political power has eluded the BJP without the support of an alliance. Unlike in a parliamentary election, in Bihar the party cannot rely on Prime Minister Modi's persona alone to secure victory. Despite all major BJP leaders in the state coming from the Other Backward Classes and Extremely Backward Classes, it has not been able to take on JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar or RJD leader Lalu Prasad on its own. The BJP has not been able to groom a regional leader of any consequence. For many years, it bet on Sushil Modi, a backward class leader. But that did not work. Then it propped up Samrat Choudhary, a backward caste Koeri leader. However, now the Koeri votes are being targeted by giving space to former JD(U) leader Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Manch in the BJP-led alliance. The party wants to prop up a younger and more acceptable face to take on Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD. The announcement by Chirag Paswan, son of the late Dalit leader Ramvilas Paswan, to contest the assembly election from a general seat (rather than a constituency reserved for Dalits) has fuelled speculation about BJP's game plan. Although he is part of the National Democratic Alliance, Paswan appears to be preparing for a post-Nitish Kumar political vacuum in the alliance, which currently lacks a prominent state leader. The BJP's attempt to form a government without any major local ally in 2015 ended in a fiasco, depriving it of power for several years. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has reason to believe that the BJP can rule the state only in coalition with his party, the JD(U), and that he alone has the option of allying with both the RJD and BJP. He has done so twice in the past. It is not that the BJP has not tried to dispense with Nitish Kumar. It tried and failed. However, that may not prevent it from trying again. Nitish Kumar is ageing and in indifferent health. Besides, he leads a government facing 20 years of anti-incumbency. The BJP may see this election as an opportunity to split the JD(U), possibly after the election. Whether Kumar survives the most difficult test of his political career will depend on the number of seats he wins and his ability to keep his flock together. X-factors The Bihar election has also become more interesting due to the entry of a new political party – Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party. The Jan Suraaj Party is not a party born out of a mass movement. It is neither ideological nor a dynastic regional party. It is more akin to a start-up led by ace election strategist Prashant Kishor, who aims to capitalise on misgovernance, the deteriorating law and order situation, and the outward migration of workers and students due to lack of industrialisation and the collapse of educational institutions. The party is also targeting caste-agnostic voters in the state, as well as those who dislike the RJD but are averse to voting for the BJP and JD(U). CSDS-Lokniti data suggests that in 2020 many who traditionally voted for BJP were also reluctant to vote for JD(U). If the Jan Suraaj Party succeeds in poaching voters from both sides of the political divide, it may prove to be the X-factor in this election. State of the Opposition The Opposition Mahagathbandhan is heavily reliant on the father-son RJD duo of Lalu Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav, and their Muslim-Yadav voter base. Despite being in Opposition, the RJD is not in a position to fully capitalise on the anti-incumbency against the government, owing to its two stints in a government led by Nitish Kumar. Still, with a vote share of around 23%, and an alliance with the Left parties and others, it remains a strong contender. Much will depend, however, on whether non-committed voters outside the Muslim-Yadav base shift towards the RJD. As for the Congress, while it may be the sheet anchor of the Opposition alliance nationally, in Bihar it brings little to the table given its negligible organisational presence. Though Nitish Kumar is down, he is not fully out of the race. He retains support among the Extremely Backward Classes, Mahadalits, and women voters of the state. But politically, he appears beleaguered and vulnerable, possibly fighting the last battle of his career. The Bihar election will clearly be determined by local factors, with caste and anti-incumbency being crucial determinants of the electoral outcome. However, the yearning for change is palpable in Bihar, and the quest for a third alternative among voters makes the 2025 election wide open.
Mint
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Mint
Former foes RCP Singh & Prashant Kishor unite: A real challenge to Nitish Kumar or just optics ahead of Bihar Elections?
Bihar Elections 2025: Former Union minister Ramchandra Prasad Singh, popularly known as RCP Singh, on Sunday joined hands with his long-time detractor Prashant Kishor. Singh merged his Aap Sabki Awaaz Party (ASAP) with the Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) – months ahead of Bihar Assembly elections 2025. The merger means political foes turning friends. RCP Singh and Kishor were known to be fierce rivals during their stints in the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United). On Sunday, however, the two leaders showered praises on each other. 'I was fascinated by how the JSP has been speaking about issues that concern the common man. We are committed to work towards making Bihar beautiful and prosperous,' Singh said as he donned the JSP's yellow scarf while being into the party by Kishor in Patna. How will the merger impact the political landscape in poll bound Bihar? Singh, former national president of JD(U), is a known OBC Kurmi face from Nalanda – considered Nitish Kumar's fortress. Singh, expert said, may help the JSP consolidate a section of the Kurmi community – known as a core voter base of Nitish – in its favour. Kishor's party may get a boost among Kurmis, but not much, they said. More than a mass leader Singh is known for his organisational skills as a strategist. 'From the optics perspective, both RCP and Kishor, former Nitish aides, would come as a stronger force in targetting the JD-U chief ahead of elections. They would try to send out a message on how two former aides of Nitish Kumar have gone against him,' said Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist and founder of VoteVibe, a newly-founded firm at the forefront of political reasearch and sentiment analysis. The Kurmi, along with sister-caste Koeri, which makes up approximately 7-8 8 per cent of Bihar's electorate, is a significant voting bloc, particularly in districts like Nalanda, Arwal, and Jehanabad of the state's Magadh region. Apart form Nitish Kumar and his JD-U, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) depends on Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) to garner the support of the Kurmi-Koeri (Luv-Kush) vote base. The 243-member Bihar assembly is voting by October-November to elect a new government. Reacting to this new Alliance, former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav has dropped strong hints that the BJP could be 'orchestrating the merger behind the scenes. "Both of them were in JD(U), one a national vice president, the other a national president. Who is getting all this done and how it is happening, people of Bihar know everything," Tejashwi said while interacting with the journalists in Patna. "If two rebels of JD(U) have come together, then everyone understands whose game this is. We don't need to say much. People are watching everything," he said. RCP Singh is a 1984-batch IAS officer who first came in touch with Nitish in 2001 when the JD (U) chief was Union Minister of Railways Minister. When Nitish became Bihar CM in 2005, RCP Singh was transferred to Bihar next year as a civil servant. Later, Singh went on to be known one of the most powerful bureaucrat in Bihar and a key Nitish aide. In 2010, Singh took voluntary retirement from the civil services and formally joined the JD(U) where he went on to be known as an organisational man who functioned from behind the scene. In 2018, Kishor, the political strategist-turned-politician, joined the JD(U) as its national vice-president. It is said that Kishor's joining didn't go well with RCP Singh as he felt insecure. RCP Singh however continued to call the shots in the JD(U) A 'cold war' ensued between Kishor and RCP Singh. Kishor quit the JD(U) in January 2020 and eventually launched his political party Jan Suraaj Party in October 2024 RCP Singh, however, rose to become the JD(U) national president. In July 2021, RCP Singh recommended himself for the lone Union Cabinet berth from the party's quota in the second Narendra Modi government. This perhaps upset Lalan Singh, the defacto number 2 in JD(U) RCP Singh resigned from Union Cabinet in 2022 and later from the JD(U) after he was overlooked for renomination to the Rajya Sabha. HE joined the BJP in May 2023. Nitish returned to the NDA in January 2024. Singh floated his Aap Sabki Awaaz Party last November. After joining forces the two new friends in Bihar are expected to escalate their attack on Nitish Kumar. Kishor had planned to launch a signature campaign in Nalanda, protesting the state government's alleged failure to deliver on its promise of ₹ 2 lakh to 94 lakh poor families. However, he was barred from entering the village.
Mint
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Mint
Former foes RCP Singh & Prashant Kishor unite: A real challenge to Nitish Kumar or just optics ahead of Bihar Election?
Bihar Elections 2025: Former Union minister Ramchandra Prasad Singh, popularly known as RCP Singh, on Sunday joined hands with his long-time detractor Prashant Kishor. Singh merged his Aap Sabki Awaaz Party (ASAP) with the Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) – months ahead of Bihar Assembly elections 2025. The merger means political foes turning friends. RCP Singh and Kishor were known to be fierce rivals during their stints in the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (Uinted). On Sunday, however, the two leaders showered praises on each other. 'I was fascinated by how the JSP has been speaking about issues that concern the common man. We are committed to work towards making Bihar beautiful and prosperous,' Singh said as he donned the JSP's yellow scarf while being into the party by Kishor in Patna. How will the merger impact the political landscape in poll bound Bihar? Singh, former national president of JD(U), is a known OBC Kurmi face from Nalanda – considered Nitish Kumar's fortress. Singh, expert said, may help the JSP consolidate a section of the Kurmi community – known as a core voter base of Nitish – in its favour. Kishor's party may get a boost among Kurmis, but not much, they said. More than a mass leader Singh is known for his organisational skills as a strategist. 'From the optics perspective, both RCP and Kishor, former Nitish aides, would come as a stronger force in targetting the JD-U chief ahead of elections. They would try to send out a message on how two former aides of Nitish Kumar have gone against him,' said Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist and founder of VoteVibe, a newly-founded firm at the forefront of political reasearch and sentiment analysis. The Kurmi, along with sister-caste Koeri, which makes up approximately 7-8 8 per cent of Bihar's electorate, is a significant voting bloc, particularly in districts like Nalanda, Arwal, and Jehanabad of the state's Magadh region. Apart form Nitish Kumar and his JD-U, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) depends on Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) to garner the support of the Kurmi-Koeri (Luv-Kush) vote base. The 243-member Bihar assembly is voting by October-November to elect a new government. Reacting to this new alliance, former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav has dropped strong hints that the BJP could be 'orchestrating the merger behind the scenes. "Both of them were in JD(U), one a national vice president, the other a national president. Who is getting all this done and how it is happening, people of Bihar know everything," Tejashwi said while interacting with the journalists in Patna. "If two rebels of JD(U) have come together, then everyone understands whose game this is. We don't need to say much. People are watching everything," he said. RCP Singh is a 1984-batch IAS officer with 28 years of administrative experience. He first came in touch with Nitish in 2001 when the JD (U) chief was Union Minister of Railways Minister between 2001 and 2004. When Nitish became Bihar CM in 2005, RCP Singh was transferred to Bihar next year as a civil servant. Later, Singh went on to be known one of the most powerful bureaucrat in Bihar and a key Nitish aide. In 2010, Singh took voluntary retirement from the civil services and formally joined the JD(U) where he went on to be known as an organisational man who functioned from behind the scene. In 2018, Kishor, the political strategist-turned-politician joined the JD(U) as its national vice-president. It is said that Kishor's joining didn't go well with RCP Singh as he felt insecure. RCP Singh however continued to call the shots in the JD(U) A 'cold war' ensued between Kishor and RSP Singh. Kishor quit the JD(U) in January 2020 and eventually launched his political party Jan Suraaj Party in October 2024 RCP Singh, however, rose to become the JD(U) national president. In July 2021, RCP Singh recommended himself for the lone Union Cabinet berth from the party's quota in the second Narendra Modi government. This perhaps upset Lalan Singh, the defacto number 2 in JD(U) RCP Singh resigned from Union Cabinet in 2022 and later from the JD(U) after he was overlooked for renomination to the Rajya Sabha. RCP had been a Rajya Sabha member since 2010. Singh joined the BJP in May 2023. Nitish returned to the NDA in January 2024. Singh floated his Aap Sabki Awaaz Party last November. After joining forces the two new friends in Bihar are expected to escalate their attack on Nitish Kumar. Kishor had planned to launch a signature campaign in Nalanda, protesting the state government's alleged failure to deliver on its promise of ₹ 2 lakh to 94 lakh poor families. However, he was barred from entering the village. 'As for impact on ground, I do not see that happening much. No matter what the perceptions says, Nitish Kumar is arguably the tallest Kurmi leader in Bihar as of now,' Tiwari said.
